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Milkman

There was never a "crash" in the U.S. in the 1980s.

There was a correction in 1987, which was a 500 point drop, but the percentage was about 22% (?)

The term "crash" is a misnomer.

In 1929 there was a crash. And people jumpted out of windows because of Margin debt. Unemployment hit 25%

Even the contrarians aren't saying this. Some do say there will be a decline, or dip. Note* not necessarily just a correction.

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BillyZ

Store Keeper, you don't work for Fox News, do ya? That sounds like something you'd hear the morning show cast saying about the latest Bush news conference! Not that I ever watch Fox News, or the morning show....

Butterfly

^ I don't agree entirely. It's possible to turn things around rapidly. You can see how a fuckwit like GW Bush can be a liability for consumer confidence. Since we are consumers driven economies, public sentiment is unfortunately what drives us. And that's when public figures can have an impact. They hold the carrot stick.

Sanuk Canuk

The one big thing the US has going for it is that there is enough money floating around in it to turn the problems around. Third world countries get screwed because their interest on their debt matches their GDP so it is impossible to keep up let alone pay the debt down.

Canada was facing a deficit crisis about 15 years ago and through allot of painful fiscal restraint, things are back on track. The states can do the same, the problem is to find the will to do it. I wonder what the debt service costs are for the US debt as a portion of the current budget. I would not be surprised if the debt service cost is a significant portion of the current annual deficits.

On the other hand allowing the currency to devalue helps at both ends of the scale. It will reduce the amount of the debt as a portion of GDP and it also will spur exports to mitigate the trade imbalance. The biggest negative issues are that this will lead to inflation, erosion of wealth and higher interest rates.

I would guess we will see a moderately painful correction but I can't see it becoming a collapse. I would also guess you will see a reduction of the standard of living for most folks. I still think one of the primary issues with the US economy is the inequitable division of wealth. To much of the money is in the hands of a few for a 1st world country.

kingwilly

^ ok ok now your being slightly pedantic - correction / recession / depression / dip / decline.

all more or less parts of the same slippery slope innit!

ok - perhaps the US may not crash but the dollar is certainly gonna drop ........a lot - average workers are gonna loose their job - investors are gonna loose money

in short the USA will become a nonfavourabe place to put money into and many ppl are gonna hurt / feel the pain.

Milkman

I agree 100%.

But don't use the term "crash" if it's not the appropriate term.

There won't be a crash.

Storekeeper

Army Exceeds Recruiting Goal

By Mark Noonan

As I always say, consult not what people say, but what they do:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Army said Friday it surpassed its recruiting goal for May, marking the 12th consecutive month of meeting or exceeding its target.

With a booming economy, the only explanation for this must be continued patriotism and support for the overall War on Terrorism, including the liberation of Iraq element of it. Polls can say this, that and the other thing - but signing up when you know you're likely to be sent to a combat zone is a lot more substantial than answering a question over the phone. Anyone can say they are against the war - but these magnificent men and women are showing they support the war.
As I've also said, a lot of people will be surprised at the results this November, but I won't be.

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Marmite the Dog

That should thin out the rednecks a bit, 'cos no one in their right mind would sign up at the moment. It'd be like joining a company that's just about to go bust.

Milkman

It's not pedantic at all.

A correction has nothing to do with a recesion, depression,dip, or decline.

A recession is not a depression.

A depresion is not a recession.

A dip is usually considered to be a correction, and dips/correction happen during high growth and favorble economic times.


There won't be a crash. There may be more inflation; maybe not. There may be declining standard of living.

Don't get me wrong. The U.S. is NOT in good shape economically. Not in good shape at all.

Things have not been good in the U.S. since the late 1970s.

Storekeeper

Lots of people in the US don't agree with this opinion.

Milkman

Of course a lot of people don't agree.

This is the field of economics.

Ask for 3 opinions and you'll get six answers.

Storekeeper

I hear your boy Warren Buffet is very high on Israel. Guess he's investing quite a fw billion $$$ over there.

Storekeeper

Narrow minded retort.

Marmite the Dog

If they weren't allowed this place would be OPs only.

Butterfly

You must be desperate for good news. What's wrong ? troops morale is at an all time low ?

Marmite the Dog

Yes it is.

stroller

It may seem pedantic, if you know nought about economics...

Mhz

I just finished my MicroEconomics course last semester.Intresting subject.

Milkman

^ I see you're in a cut-and-past mood today.

That's OK. They've been good recently.

SK,

This is short-term not long term. Tax reciepts fluctuate a lot. Budget makers do NOT view tax reciepts in the mid and long term.

You have got to look at the big picture.

Have you seen the independent projections for the deficit in the year 2010?

As for liberals, liberals do not want increased deficits.

The few liberals left in government want the opposite.

In 1990, the U.S. government - bipartisan - adopted the "pay as you go" policy.

This worked from 1990 to 2001.

George W. Bush agandoned that, obviously.

Storekeeper

I also try to keep the cut and paste in the threads I started beore. That way posters can just look and say, "Oh look ... it's a SK thread and it's popped again. Nah, I don't wanna read his garbage" ...