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Milkman

Good, dodge.

The economy is too complicated and globally interdependent to focus on the Executive and Congressional branches.

The fact that many Americans believe it, is the result of Old Style political campaigning.

When the economy is good, the incumbant takes the credit (that's usually undeserved)

When the economy is bad or weak, the incumbant takes the blame, usually undeserved.

At the Executive and Congressional levels.

Begbie

North Koreans also believe they live in the world's greatest country.

Butterfly

^ actually Cuba claims to have the world's best economy. And so did the USSR just before they collapse.

Storekeeper

You still aren't going to convince me that Presidential policies don't have an impact on the economy. That's horseshit. How do you explain away tools like tax cuts to have an effect of the economy ?

Sanuk Canuk

Tax cuts without the required program cuts to fund them just move the problem around. Runs up the debt but folks don't notice right away, a nice placebo(sp) cure. Spending money in areas that don't return wealth is one way bad policies impact the economy. Ineffective military spending, pork barrel infrastructure projects would both be examples of this.

Storekeeper

Yeah, people like to throw darts at the military infrastructure but what they never talk about is that even though the size of the government has technically grown ... it's in the area of contractors. How much money is saved by turning all those civil service jobs into contractor jobs? The government doesn't have to fund pensions or pay medical/dental care when jobs supporting the government are civilianized.

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Marmite the Dog

The biggest problem the US ecomony faces is its aging population and the huge welfare bill. This is what will bring the economy to its knees within the next 30 or 40 years, not some two bit fracas in the Middle East.

Milkman

I agree with you SK, that targeted tax cuts influence the economy. In particular, in certain industries.

But overall, there are so many factors today that we can't say (or that economists can't say this) that the overal macro-economy is doing well or badly because of a particular Executive or Congress.

Presidents have the best team of economists with them for constant briefings.

Also the Federal Reserve (FMOC) and the Chairman.

Most veteran members of Congress, and definately the high majority of Senators of both parties are very well versed on macro-economic fundamentals.

It's basically a prerequisite for governing in these times.

Storekeeper

We've talked about this before. But the agin population will not be a variable that brings down the US. Think illegal immigrants ... another reason George Bush is so damn savvy.

Storekeeper

The concept of randomness ... so unpredicatble yet such a beautiful thing ... but difficult to understand.

Sanuk Canuk

Oddly enough when I think of "ole Dubya" savvy does not come to mind first.

Milkman

You know who agrees with Marmite?

Alan Greenspan.

He's very carefully stated the ramifications of this.


The S.S ratio is about 3 : 1

But the real problem is the medical care. Medicare is a train crash.


Illegals:

Illegals will have no effect on the S.S. ratio and coming insolvency, and the Medicare and addiontal medical costs.

More of them will pay more in taxes.

But this is a drop in the bucket.

Marmite the Dog

Not much of a compliment. That guy has screwed up every organisation he's worked for. He's a total dead loss.

Milkman

You know more about him than me mate, so I better retract that.

I started to read the fawning "Maestro," which supposed to be a biography of him by Bob Woodward, but it's really dry, to me.

Butterfly

Yeah, Greenspan was a fucking poseur. Old fool always late to the game. The new guy seems to be better in charge. However, markets loved Greenspan. He was fucking God. He has corrected a few potential disasters, but he could have done a better job with the Dot Boom and the property speculation.

Marmite the Dog

It doesn't really matter what anyone does with the US economy. One day, not too far away it's going to crash massively, and every economy will be affected in a detrimental way. It's too late to stop the inevitable, so whoever is wearing the pants in the US may as well carry on as they have been doing for years and just keep on printing money and selling bonds, and just hope that the crash isn't going to come during their administration period.

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BillyZ

Store Keeper, you don't work for Fox News, do ya? That sounds like something you'd hear the morning show cast saying about the latest Bush news conference! Not that I ever watch Fox News, or the morning show....

Butterfly

^ I don't agree entirely. It's possible to turn things around rapidly. You can see how a fuckwit like GW Bush can be a liability for consumer confidence. Since we are consumers driven economies, public sentiment is unfortunately what drives us. And that's when public figures can have an impact. They hold the carrot stick.

Milkman

I'm no economist obviously, but there is debate on whether or not the U.S. economy will "crash."

The days of crashes are related to currencies, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong).

I do see a decline in the standard of living. This has been happening since the 1950s, and more specifically since the 1970s.

Storekeeper:

It's not a concept of randomness. Just many factors, both domestic and international.

kingwilly

they were debating the same thing b4 the big crash in the early 80's and again in the 90's.

its gonna crash - just cos everyone gets excited and trys to come up woith reasins why the market is different this time....

hohoho - make me laff