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Accidental Ajarn · 02-09-2008, 09:55 PM

"This is the tricky issue, because many believe that when it comes to race, people are not honest.

If people are not honest, then the polling data is not accurate."

Its called the Bradley effect, after the ex-mayor of LA, Thomas Bradely, A black man, always had a much bigger lead in polls than his actual margin of victory.

Is this happening now with Obama?

Who can say, but it is a possibility.

Race for Obama brings both pluses and minuses. But, he was able to get a high percentage of white voters in the primaries. Will this carry through to the general election? the 64 thousand dollar question.

pai nai ma · 02-09-2008, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Accidental Ajarn

Race for Obama brings both pluses and minuses. But, he was able to get a high percentage of white voters in the primaries. Will this carry through to the general election? the 64 thousand dollar question. Accidental Ajarn is online now Add to Accidental Ajarn's Reputation Report Post

yup..

Accidental Ajarn · 02-09-2008, 09:58 PM

"Ray - you lost the plot mate"

He had a plot? What was it? something about "vetting?"

Forget the war in Iraq, the economy, the values and personalities of the canidates, what the American Voters are most concerned over is the vetting practices of each canidate!!

Wasn't that his plot? or did he lose it from the get-go.

yes little ray-boy, I know another red.

raycarey · 02-09-2008, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

do you save quotes that you know will come back to bite arse or do you use the search function.

i've used the search function to expose texpat so many times that he's convinced i keep a journal.

it's also always fun to point out the hypocritical and contradictory statements made by jet gorgon.....by this point, i'm guessing jet wishes the search function was disabled.

anyway, i just searched under brit's name and the key word 'poll'.....i had a hunch, and i was right.

raycarey · 02-09-2008, 10:05 PM

at this point, the question is will sarah 'gimmick' palin still be on the ticket on election day.

12% of gamblers on intrade.com say "NO".....let's see what the rest of the week will bring.

Intrade Prediction Markets

Accidental Ajarn · 02-09-2008, 10:07 PM

^

Wow I see I ain't ant's only "friend" here.

pai nai ma · 02-09-2008, 10:11 PM

Mccain has sent a dozen lawyers to AK to properly vet ms palin.

jim1176 · 02-09-2008, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raycarey

but what's disconcerting about all this is the pathetically inept vetting process

yep, this guy shoots from the hip

Accidental Ajarn · 02-09-2008, 10:23 PM

Fuck, what do you want to bet 90% of these lefties didn't know the meaning of "vetting" or gave two shits about it before it appeared on the left wing blogs telling RC and his buddies what to think and rant about?

I will make a bold prediction, vetting will not become a deciding issue of this campaign. I know I know, really going out on a limb here.

britmaveric · 02-09-2008, 10:27 PM

Odd that the dem moonbats are going mental over Palin choice, actually its pretty much confirms McCain made the right choice.

sabang · 02-09-2008, 10:52 PM

Not so odd the Polls ain't pretty for the GOP though.

spiff · 02-09-2008, 11:01 PM

Check Palin's religious associations, makes Obama's pastor look like a smug pussycat.

Carnwadrick · 02-09-2008, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raycarey

"John McCain calls himself a maverick, but he votes with George Bush more than 90% of the time...that's not a maverick, that's a sidekick.

Get yourself better informed Ray..The President does not vote in the Senate only Senator do that...McCain has voted 90% with the Republican party...Obama on the other hand has voted 96% with the Democratic party.

Carnwadrick · 02-09-2008, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabang

Not so odd the Polls ain't pretty for the GOP though.

The're really only two reliable and non-partisan polls
Rasmussen Polls: Obama 48% McCain 43%
Zogby Polls: Obama 45% McCain 42%
Slight lead for Obama but not exactly "ain't pretty for the GOP"

Bugs · 03-09-2008, 02:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carnwadrick

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabang

Not so odd the Polls ain't pretty for the GOP though.

The're really only two reliable and non-partisan polls
Rasmussen Polls: Obama 48% McCain 43%
Zogby Polls: Obama 45% McCain 42%
Slight lead for Obama but not exactly "ain't pretty for the GOP"

Indeed, Obama got zero bump from Biden, and it looks like McCain will get zero bump from Palin - same, same (which I would say ain't half bad considering the surface shit flying right now about Palin). Obama got 5-7 point bump from the convention - yet to see if McCain can match, beat, or get beat by that with the red team convention.

All that aside - if folks can not see how badly the blue team have managed things so far considering the poor economy, the situation in Iraq, and the poor view of Bush - yet McCain is still within single digits? How can that be? The blue team should be twenty plus points ahead - but they ain't. Why is that?

You can bet both side are scratching their collective heads right now trying to figure out what the hell they should do next.

Carnwadrick · 03-09-2008, 02:48 AM

^ I did not say it was fair just pointing out that it was her job..I could have added that if she was a Democrat she would have asked for three times but I didn't did I

I know! you are not a Dem or Rep you are a Libertarian..not really sure of the complete stance other than less government interferance if that's it then maybe I am one just don't know it

Carnwadrick · 03-09-2008, 02:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

The blue team should be twenty plus points ahead - but they ain't. Why is that?

Blue = cold Red = Hot ????

Jet Gorgon · 03-09-2008, 02:57 AM

^^ Bugs, mebbe coz they got a black man who folks are discovering is just a bag of hot air. When asked about Palin's daughter's pregnancy, he said family are sacred and then took five minutes to talk about why he wouldn't talk about it. What an a-hole politician. I also saw him in a recent interview (Face the Nation, I think), and he twice said "man" at the end of a sentence. Oops; the real BO is slipping out now that he has Mr Big Biden at his side. 555555555 We'll be getting "your momma" lines soon.

AntRobertson · 03-09-2008, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

^^ Bugs, mebbe coz they got a black man who folks are discovering is just a bag of hot air. When asked about Palin's daughter's pregnancy, he said family are sacred and then took five minutes to talk about why he wouldn't talk about it. What an a-hole politician. I also saw him in a recent interview (Face the Nation, I think), and he twice said "man" at the end of a sentence. Oops; the real BO is slipping out now that he has Mr Big Biden at his side. 555555555 We'll be getting "your momma" lines soon.

And it looks like the real Jet's slipping out too; pointy white hat and all.

sabang · 03-09-2008, 07:23 AM

HuH?

"The online prediction market Intrade sees a 12 percent chance that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee before the U.S. presidential election on November 4."

http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/200...ns-permanence/

Do they know something we don't??

03-09-2008, 07:23 AM	#20 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 12:25 PM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: where the streets have no name Posts: 11,564	HuH? "The online prediction market Intrade sees a 12 percent chance that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee before the U.S. presidential election on November 4." http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/200...ns-permanence/ Do they know something we don't?? __________________ Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

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02-09-2008, 09:55 PM	#1 (permalink)
Accidental Ajarn Ban Phe Last Online: 12-09-2009 05:32 PM Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 615	"This is the tricky issue, because many believe that when it comes to race, people are not honest. If people are not honest, then the polling data is not accurate." Its called the Bradley effect, after the ex-mayor of LA, Thomas Bradely, A black man, always had a much bigger lead in polls than his actual margin of victory. Is this happening now with Obama? Who can say, but it is a possibility. Race for Obama brings both pluses and minuses. But, he was able to get a high percentage of white voters in the primaries. Will this carry through to the general election? the 64 thousand dollar question.

02-09-2008, 09:58 PM	#3 (permalink)
Accidental Ajarn Ban Phe Last Online: 12-09-2009 05:32 PM Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 615	"Ray - you lost the plot mate" He had a plot? What was it? something about "vetting?" Forget the war in Iraq, the economy, the values and personalities of the canidates, what the American Voters are most concerned over is the vetting practices of each canidate!! Wasn't that his plot? or did he lose it from the get-go. yes little ray-boy, I know another red.

02-09-2008, 10:05 PM	#5 (permalink)
raycarey ........ Last Online: Today 11:24 AM Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: deleting posts in issues Posts: 6,673	at this point, the question is will sarah 'gimmick' palin still be on the ticket on election day. 12% of gamblers on intrade.com say "NO".....let's see what the rest of the week will bring. Intrade Prediction Markets

02-09-2008, 10:07 PM	#6 (permalink)
Accidental Ajarn Ban Phe Last Online: 12-09-2009 05:32 PM Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 615	^ Wow I see I ain't ant's only "friend" here.

02-09-2008, 10:11 PM	#7 (permalink)
pai nai ma I am in Jail Last Online: 18-12-2008 08:14 PM Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,038	Mccain has sent a dozen lawyers to AK to properly vet ms palin.

02-09-2008, 10:23 PM	#9 (permalink)
Accidental Ajarn Ban Phe Last Online: 12-09-2009 05:32 PM Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 615	Fuck, what do you want to bet 90% of these lefties didn't know the meaning of "vetting" or gave two shits about it before it appeared on the left wing blogs telling RC and his buddies what to think and rant about? I will make a bold prediction, vetting will not become a deciding issue of this campaign. I know I know, really going out on a limb here.

02-09-2008, 10:27 PM	#10 (permalink)
britmaveric nid aur yw popeth melyn Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 3,916	Odd that the dem moonbats are going mental over Palin choice, actually its pretty much confirms McCain made the right choice.

02-09-2008, 10:52 PM	#11 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 12:25 PM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: where the streets have no name Posts: 11,564	Not so odd the Polls ain't pretty for the GOP though.

02-09-2008, 11:01 PM	#12 (permalink)
spiff Impregnator Last Online: 31-07-2009 02:13 PM Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: amidst dogs and ducks Posts: 2,735	Check Palin's religious associations, makes Obama's pastor look like a smug pussycat.

03-09-2008, 02:48 AM	#16 (permalink)
Carnwadrick Uttaradit Last Online: Today 07:50 AM Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Dark side of paradise Posts: 559	^ I did not say it was fair just pointing out that it was her job..I could have added that if she was a Democrat she would have asked for three times but I didn't did I I know! you are not a Dem or Rep you are a Libertarian..not really sure of the complete stance other than less government interferance if that's it then maybe I am one just don't know it

03-09-2008, 02:57 AM	#18 (permalink)
Jet Gorgon Jihad Barbie Last Online: Today 04:50 AM Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Near Libbies Posts: 12,470	^^ Bugs, mebbe coz they got a black man who folks are discovering is just a bag of hot air. When asked about Palin's daughter's pregnancy, he said family are sacred and then took five minutes to talk about why he wouldn't talk about it. What an a-hole politician. I also saw him in a recent interview (Face the Nation, I think), and he twice said "man" at the end of a sentence. Oops; the real BO is slipping out now that he has Mr Big Biden at his side. 555555555 We'll be getting "your momma" lines soon.

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