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sabang

I know it's a few months to the elections, so maybe this is a rash call at this stage, and the Polls are only showing around an 8% advantage to Obama. The numbers however do not tell the whole story, as an excellent report from the Pew organisation shows.

Link to full article- Overview: Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats

The numbers hide several important factors-
1- Voter turnout in the US elections. This is expected to be significantly higher, and this higher turnout will overwhelmingly benefit Obama.

"The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 18-29 among 2,004 Americans, finds greater public interest and engagement in the presidential election than during the five previous campaigns. Fully 72% say they are giving quite a lot of thought to this election - by far the highest percentage at this point in the campaign since 1988....

The new survey finds another potential parallel between the general election and the primaries: Democratic turnout could match or perhaps exceed Republican participation in November, just as it did in most states during the primaries.
Two unprecedented findings from the new survey support a potential Democratic turnout advantage. For the first time in Center polls conducted since 1992, a greater proportion of Democrats than Republicans are expressing strong interest in the campaign. Nearly eight-in-ten Democratic voters (77%) say they are giving a lot of thought to the election, up 18 points since June 2004. Republican engagement also has increased over this period (from 61% to 72%), but for the first time somewhat fewer GOP voters than Democrats say they are giving a lot of thought to the election."

2- Then theres the Obama factor. Be it sale of Obama T shirts, hats & 'Ojamas', or media interest, Obama carries the wow factor in these elections. As a result, and unusually, Democratic Obama supporters support their candidate more strongly than McCain supporters. This is unusual- it is usually the Republican faithful that support their candidate most strongly, while the Dems are bickering among themselves.

"A second factor which may also contribute to a Democratic turnout advantage is that supporters of the Republican candidate, uncharacteristically, are less strongly committed to their choice than are supporters of the Democratic candidate. Overall, Obama leads McCain in the presidential horserace by 48% to 40%. Most voters who say they support Obama - 28% among the 48% - say they support him strongly. By contrast, only about a third of McCain's backers say they support him strongly (14% of the 40%)...
There are other indications that Democrats are more enthusiastic about the election than are Republicans. Far more Democratic voters than Republican voters express satisfaction with the field of candidates (74% vs. 49%). Republican voters' satisfaction with the candidates is now not much higher than it was in June 1996, during Bob Dole's unsuccessful campaign (50% satisfied). In addition, 33% of Republican voters say it is hard to choose between the candidates because neither would make a good president; just 21% of Democratic voters express this view."

3- There is also a higher number of swing voters- which traditionally favours the challenger rather than the incumbent. And the pro Hillary undecided are definitely moving towards Obama-



Other stuff of interest, more mixed-

"Other findings

• A majority of voters (55%) give Obama a grade of A or B for convincing them to vote for him. That is a higher grade than for any Democratic or Republican candidate in the past three campaigns. By contrast, just 32% give McCain a grade of A or B.
• A small but stable minority of voters (12%) of voters believe that Obama is a Muslim. That is about the same percentage that said Obama was a Muslim in March (10%).
• Most Democratic and Democratic-leaning women voters (60%) want Obama to choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But voters who supported Obama in the Democratic primaries remain cool to this idea.
• A quarter of liberal Democrats say they have contributed money to a presidential candidate in the past year, about double the proportion of conservative Republicans who have donated (13%).
• Democrats who favored Clinton for the nomination remain critical of Obama. Just 35% say he is more personally qualified than McCain to be president; former Clinton supporters are split as to whether McCain or Obama could better deal with terrorist threats.
• Conservative Republican voters are decidedly less optimistic about their party's chances in the fall than they were just a few months ago. Just 49% say McCain is mostly likely to win, down from 71% in April."

It is quite telling that a slight majority of Republicans think that Obama will win the Presidential elections too!

So maybe a bold call at this stage, but I think things are looking pretty good for an Obama victory- in fact, based on the interesting Pew findings, I'm sticking my neck out and calling it early.

There are three main factors, keeping things balanced, that remain negative for Obama-

1- His lack of experience in national politics.
2- He's half black. This is a fatal factor for a small, but comitted, percentage of the voting public. 12% still think he's Muslim.
3- MCains national security and Commander in chief credentials are significantly stronger to the US voting public.

Why not get your vote in early, call the election in the TD poll.

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Sir Burr

I already predicted Obama months ago. Nothing's changed my mind.

sabang

More from Pew, surely beneficial for Obama-

More See America's Loss of Global Respect as Major Problem

Majority of Republicans Say U.S. Is Less Respected


More Americans now say that the United States is less respected in the world than it has been in the past, and a growing proportion views this as a major problem for the country. More than seven-in-ten Americans (71%) say that the United States is less respected by other countries these days, up from 65% in August 2006.
For the first time since Pew began asking this question in 2004, a majority of Americans now sees the loss of international respect for the United States as a major problem. The percentage of Americans saying the loss of international respect is a major problem has risen from 43% in 2005 to 48% in 2006 and 56% currently.



Full Article- Overview: More See America's Loss of Global Respect as Major Problem

US elections are won or lost on domestic issues, mainly. It does seem that foreign policy issues will play a greater part in this election however.

Milkman

I would've voted, "I don't know."

It may be very close and we don't know the battleground states polling at this time. Even if we did, it's too far from the election at this point.

Election is only 14 weeks away, but that's a long time in politics in a race like this.

The campaign is actually over. Candidates are now competing for those on the fence, and the low-info voters.

That's why we here all of this BS about gas prices and the Surge. It's for the low-info voter.

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britmaveric

Think McCain will win and it won't even be close.

ChiangMai noon

this was an interesting thread for someone who isn't on the pulse of American politics and then we get this from Brit.

care to back that up with reasons in more than a 5 word sentence?

Texpat

Anything could happen in four months.
A bombshell revelation four days before the election could turn it on its head.
Silly poll.

ChiangMai noon

you would say that wouldn't you?

Texpat

You don't think it's silly?
Predicting a US presidential race that's essentially a dead heat four months out?

You're silly.

ChiangMai noon

likewise the pollsters who get paid a small fortune for their work.

silly people.

shouldn't bother til the weekend before the election.

Norton

Typically, I would agree. In this election, foreign policy has a greater role as voters start to understand how recent US Foreign policy negatively impacts domestic conditions. Specifically "it's the economy stupid".

sabang

Why is it silly? I have made my call, and early, and stated why. If you are undecided at this point, you have no obligation to vote. Sounds like Republican griping to me.

As for being a dead heat, how do you come to that conclusion? The Polls I am seeing put Obama at 6-8% ahead, but my contention is that this lead is more significant than the pure numbers indicate- for the reasons given above.

Milkman

Another 1 sentence post, with not data to back it up.

Any stats?

You are one of the worst posters in Issues.

Have you checked the polling lately? Every heard of Rassmussen.

This thread is turning into 1 sentence garbage.

AntRobertson

But isn't that the point? Sabang's noted it himself, and when can you have a 'non-silly- poll? If it's a foregone conclusion??

Texpat

Insofar as some people vote based on polls, maybe not such a bad idea.

Why should it matter who's winning the race if your vote represents who you think would be a better leader?

And like I said, you can flush the polls if Obama or McCain lay an egg a week prior to Election Day in November.

britmaveric

Well each yank state has own elections, so not really national election per say.

If I recall didnt all the polls say that Kerry was going to win 4yrs ago? Who actually won????

Polls are worthless - sample of 1000 people. This can't be projected for the entire country - too many variables.

I think you will see many people saying they will vote for Osama, but when it comes down to it - they won't do it.

Norton

Polls reflect "current" thinking. No question things can change and the then polls will reflect the change. I can't see either a catastrophic event happening to Obama or a profound change in McCain's campaign approach that will put him in the lead as the favorite to win.

Given the trend over the last few months the lead Obama has now will be much greater in November. McCain and the Republicans have squandered time and opportunities to fix their campaign strategy. Having failed they are in for a major wuppin.

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Norton

Tell that to the respective campaigns. If you think polls are worthless why do the campaign staff form their strategies and tactics around poll results?

britmaveric