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Jet Gorgon

I was listening to an Obama speech last night and every sentence ended with an uuummm or an ahhhh. Drove me batty.
What does computer literacy have to do with presidential skills, Sabang? McC ain't a secretary.

GooMaiRoo

A moderate Democrat like Joe Biden would now be cruising toward a landslide victory in November. However, Middle America's deeply-rooted fear of African-Americans could sway the election toward McCain in the final days. Without a doubt, Republican ads will contain subtle racial subtexts to make sure that this happens. A McCain win would be unfortunate. Long before senility set in, McCain finished in the bottom 1% of his college graduating class. He lacks even a basic understanding of geography, let alone macro-economics and geopolitics. Even with a built-in advantage of not being stupid and not being a pro-Bush Republican, Obama needs a older, conservative white guy like Chuck Hagel or Sam Nunn as his vice presidential choice to have a chance in November.

sabang

Maybe that puts it in a nutshell-
Obama needs a good choice of VP, McCain needs a good Secretary.

Norton

No question Obama's choice of VP will make a big difference. A senior "white" member of congress will be a must to overcome both the "race" and "inexperience" cards the Republicans are sure to make a major campaign theme.

ItsRobsLife

Lets face it Jet it isn't anything to do with what the guy has got to say, you just don't like him, or his Mrs. Fair enufski.

Texpat

Obama/Sharpton '08

ChiangMai noon

jet's a strange animal.

not only is she a wannabee yank, she's a wannabee redneck.

sabang

Senator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three leading political scientists declared the US media's presentation of the election as a toss-up as a "myth".

Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.

It was a particularly bold call for Professor Sabato, who has previously cautioned about Senator Obama's claims that he can redraw the political map in America. "While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next 3½ months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November," the three men wrote in Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter.

"Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied," they wrote.
But there are other worrying signs for Senator McCain.

A Fox News Poll found that 51 per cent of Americans think Senator Obama will win. Only 27 per cent pick Senator McCain (from 32 per cent last month).

There's no doubt Senator Obama has run a campaign with few stumbles, apart from his serious mishandling of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright issue. That's been achieved by keeping a safe distance from media questioning, keeping the images tightly controlled and focusing on reassuring voters about his weaknesses, for instance, his national security credentials....

A Pew Hispanic Centre poll released last Thursday shows overwhelming support from Latinos for Senator Obama - 66 per cent versus 23 per cent favouring Senator McCain....

Senator McCain is facing a particularly hostile political environment. The war remains deeply unpopular in the US, although support for the surge has risen somewhat as its impact becomes clearer. The economic news just gets worse, and Senator McCain is struggling to distinguish his economic remedies from those of George Bush. He is also struggling to convince Republicans he is their man.
Polling data continues to show that Democrats are more satisfied with their party's nominee than Republican voters and more highly motivated to vote. While Republicans normally benefit from higher turnout among their supporters, that may not be the case this year...

The issue still remains for Senator Obama whether he can overcome what some fear is a deep-seated racist reserve about him in middle America.

Full Article- No cliffhanger, more like an Obama landslide - US Election - smh.com.au

__________________
To err is human. To blame someone else is politics.

Texpat

I'm also quite dubious of the media. They survive on conflict.
If the race was a run-away, they'd have little to report; they'd lose ratings and might have to resort to working for a living.

The same holds true with all these TV reality shows. Each one has an element of conflict. Even if it's something as innocuous as Martha Stewart putting together a floral arrangement, they introduce a time element, so it's a race against the clock. It's a manufactured clash of forces.

The predictable, tired old contest -- good versus evil. If it's a blowout, nobody's interested in watching (or voting).

I also suspect Obama's lead is far greater than the media report it to be.

britmaveric

Dunno I suspect media is actually propping up Osama's lead - don't think he is actually doing too well. This will be come down to will white yanks will vote for a black man for the highest office. They may say they will vote for him, but when it comes down to it, doubt they will do it.

Thetyim

Blimey is he running for President as well

Texpat

If blacks comprise 15-17 percent of the total US population, Obama needs a boatload of whites to vote for him. Among Democrats he did it against Hillary, the pre-race shoo-in.

I think he has convinced enough whites (he didn't have to do much but show up to convince black voters) that he's in fact only half black, so not too much of a threat.

I wonder how it might have been different if he was half black but looked ... white ...

Milkman

I think the black population is still at 12% but I could be wrong.

The electoral college system is what makes the voting numbers a chess game. Certain states with a high percentage of black voters + a certain percentage of white voters that vote for Obama will give him electoral vote victories in those states, in the South.

Appearance is an issue in America with regards to race. Even the different hues within the black community.

__________________
Military men are dumb, stupid animals, to be used as pawns for foreign policy

SirBerzerkAlot

I voted neither because in the coming few weeks Condoleeza Rice is going to roll up in a wheel chair and announce on international TV (CNN & BBC) that she is:

1. Gay!
2. Running as McCains Vice-President!

Finally...and just days before the McCain/Rice Republican ticket wins the biggest landslide victory in American history.....America will suffer a devastating (self inflicted) terrorist attack rivalling 9-11.....with George W. Bush declaring 'Martial Law', putting the entire election process on hold and allowiing Bush to have total 'Dicktatorial' conntrol over America and the spread of 'DUMBOCRACY'!

Can I get an amen on that one.....or at least a green or two?

ItsRobsLife

^ A black, handicapped, lesbian Republican eh...?

Wonder what Jet would make of that.

Jet Gorgon

^ Why not? At least she's a better dresser than Michelle and she does have class, brains and knowledge.
He's got class, but it's phoney as baloney. He can side-step on an issue faster than Gregory Hines can tap a shim sham shimmy. White America don't like the boy. Cepting for the left wing crazies.
I love it.
Hey, my family came from the States. I have worked for US firms for most of my life. And, sadly, it is true, Canada sucks. I'm only here for my Sis. I think I shall move to the Olympic Peninsula. It's only a dwarf toss across the 49th. And, my neck is pure white.

sabang

These are White states Jettie, and not noted for their Leftist tendencies.

Given his lead in the Polls, it seems to me it is only a minority of rednecks that discount him 'cus he's half white.

The economy continues to drag down the GOP's credibility too- the latest is a spiralling deficit-

Obama or McCain to inherit $US482 billion deficit

The next president will inherit a record US budget deficit of $US482 billion ($505.4 billion), according to a new Bush administration estimate released on Monday.
The administration said the deficit was being driven to an all-time high by the sagging economy and the stimulus payments being made to 130 million households in an effort to keep the United States from falling into a deep recession.

Obama or McCain to inherit $US482 billion deficit | smh.com.au

I am not sure whether Obamas ethnicity is neutral, or on balance negative to his overall electability. I doubt it is positive though.

Whatever the answer to that, he seems to have convincingly shaken off any credibility issues. I was interested to find out recently that Obama now enjoys about a 2:1 Polling advantage over McCain in the Jewish community- so basically, I was wrong. I'd thought he could write off the Jewish vote from the start.

I'm guessing, based on Polling data and with the Hildebeast stuff behind him, a similar situation exists in socially conservative 'middle America'- for most people the initial scepticism has evaporated, and Obama is a serious contender.

Of course there is a minority that absolutely won't vote for him, ever, because he's only half white. But theres also a minority that only ever will vote for him, because he's half black. Two equally uninformed opinions- but my guess is they cancel each other out in the election stakes.

britmaveric

Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

sabang

^ Brit, you need to provide a Linky for that.
It would certainly be an interesting result.

Norton

USA Today does shows a 4% point lead. We should note it is the only major poll showing McCain as favored.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama