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Milkman

Norton is calling it well. The Independents are a large part of the electorate. And Palin and McCain's slide is happening. How far, we don't know. Will the Independents change their minds? My hunch is that at this point in such a long campaign, they won't go back to McCain Palin.

And CMN, as of now, Obama can lose Florida or Ohio and still get the 270 electoral votes he needs.

I also saw the recent polling data about the first Obama-McCain debate, and Obama had strong numbers over McCain, as did Biden.

And yes, The Virginia stats, if correct, are telling.

Next debate is Wednesday morning Thailand time.

GooMaiRoo

Yep, Obama looks like he can hold the 2004 "blue" states as well as Iowa and New Mexico. That gives him 264 electoral votes and he just needs to pick off one "red" state out of 7 or 8 that are up for grabs - Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Colorado, Ohio or Nevada. But as economy implodes, Obama could win comfortably. McCain is looking desperate these days, even a bit unhinged. That stupid grin, totally disconnected from his glowing eyes, make him look like Chucky on a bad acid trip. I get this feeling that McCain might say something ridiculous in tomorrow's debate.

Milkman

I'll be watching. The MSM is hitting McCain-Palin pretty solidly.

And with the Fox news link posted on "McCain Lost" I am wondering what the pundits and spin doctors are saying about McCain.

There is energy in a close election. There is a bandwagon effect and also mood swings. It seems that this energy is coming out against McCain in many different directions.

ChiangMai noon

these predictions have been shifting further towards Obama for the last 3 weeks or so and are updated daily based on the data available

Norton

Rasmussen shows McCain with a 1% lead in Ohio. For me the biggest surprise is Florida which has Obama ahead by 6%. With it's 27 electoral votes should Obama retain this big margin, Florida alone will assure an Obama win.

Milkman

When I'm watching the election coverage, I'll be waiting for Flrorida to come in.


As for polls. I am now getting suspect about their accuracy.

Click the link below and the CBS poll says the race is tightening in the national poll and that the tightening happened after the VP debates. This poll also claims that 20% or 1 out of 5 are undecided.

I do not believe this for a couple of reasons. One of these reasons is that this CBS poll is different than the 11+ other polls out there.

Link: CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens, Survey Shows Obama Leading McCain 47 Percent To 43 Percent Among Registered Voters Nationwide Following V.P. Debate - CBS News

ChiangMai noon

^
indeed gallup's new poll has just widened to 50-42 Obama.

ChiangMai noon

....................

yesterday's state and national polls.

ChiangMai noon

^
don't think they need to worry too much.

Jet and Brit have both stated 'Obama will never be president'

bkkandrew

^Shame neither of them actually have a vote then.

Milkman

Here is a pdf file on the actual polling questions, and qualifying questions for one organization:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/se...ll_Release.pdf

Jet Gorgon

I need a rofd smilie (rollling on the floor dying). Man, this personal bashing in the debates is REALLY p*ssing me off. Plus, both candidates feked up big time. If I hear Obama pontificate and say "anddd uhhh" one more time I'll shoot him myself. If I hear McC say "my friends" one more time I'll shoot him, too. Bladdy h*ll. They got the issues wrong, they got the dates wrong, and they are both fekin making up a gumbo pot of crap about their future plans. Fek em. Vote Dalai Lama.

ChiangMai noon

^
as good as a concession.


Earl has already called it for Obama.

that leaves brit and Boonmee as the only residents of cloud cuckoo land.

Jet Gorgon

^ Jettie's prediction: BO may become prez but he will never rule.
Fek, imagine -- Dem Congress and Dem prez. Fek, Dem prez will never veto a Dem bill and the deficit will burst the universe. Never mind tax hike rockets.

AntRobertson

There's just been 8yrs of a GOP President that came in on a surplus from his Democrat predecessor, is leaving on a deficit and Obama's policy's lower taxes for the majority of people yet people still cling to this outmoded 'tax & spend' caricature of the Democrats which if ever it was even true certainly isn't now.

__________________
The Revolution will be televised... Eleven o'clock... Channel 10.

Lorenzo

McCain really looked old in the debate. Had a hard time watching it. Like a 75 year old punter at RCA.

Jet Gorgon

^^ Lower taxes, Ant? If you believe that get a green card.

AntRobertson

Have you even seen his proposed tax policies, Jet?

On what basis are you claiming he's going to raise them?

ChiangMai noon

I pity the Canadians this dreadful regime.

Jet Gorgon

^ me, too. The C$ has fallen big time. Good for me finally.

How do you think he will pay for all his programs, Ant? He will raise taxes across the board. If elected, he will have no choice but to raise taxes if he wants to complete his goals (where else does a govt get its $?). Then you have the Dem congress' earmarks to cover.