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Mr Earl · 04-10-2008, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I suppose if your polling data held any acuity it would be John Kerry seeking re-election right now.

Milkman · 04-10-2008, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Quote:

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I suppose if your polling data held any acuity it would be John Kerry seeking re-election right now.

The polling data on Kerry in 2004 was exit polling data.

And you're icon?

My comments are based on a multitude of polls. In key states. And, McCain is spending more money and time in state that should be "his" basically.

Here's a brief snippet.

Quote:

....McCain is in as bad or worse shape in other crucial states. He is on course to lose Iowa and New Mexico, both barely won by President Bush four years ago.

Quote:

And McCain and the Republican National Committee this week began pouring money into Indiana and North Carolina, reliably Republican states where Obama has made strong advances and polls indicate the candidates are roughly tied.

Quote:

McCain is slipping further behind not only in Michigan but also in four other states that went Democratic four years ago, but which he hoped to pull into the GOP column this year.

Quote:

But the Obama surge, coinciding over the past 10 days with the Wall Street crisis and the debate over a federal bailout, has left McCain on the ropes in eight states — with a combined 101 electoral votes — that Bush carried four years ago.

Quote:

By contrast, McCain does not lead in any state that Sen. John Kerry captured in 2004. Bush beat Kerry by 35 electoral votes, 286 to 251

Quote:

Dante Scala, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. "The fact that states like Indiana and Missouri are still on the table spells trouble for McCain."

Quote:

McCain also has less room to maneuver because of finances. He cannot spend more than the $84.1 million in public funds he accepted after being nominated a month ago, although the national GOP is augmenting his spending with so-called independent expenditures on ads in key states.

Link: Nation & World | Campaigns redirect in battleground states | Seattle Times Newspaper

This article also notes that McCain can come back. Yes, he can, but it will be difficult.

How do ya like them apples?

Mr Earl · 04-10-2008, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Milkman

How do ya like them apples?

I reckon the Seattle Times needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
And the Palin effect hasn't had time to play in the polls yet.
It's way too early to call it.
It's way too close for comfort.

Milkman · 04-10-2008, 04:35 PM

Let's just say, for example....that McCain wins these following states, hypothetically.

But....Some of these McCain states in the model below are toss-ups and some are now "leaning" and "strong" for Obama:

Norton · 04-10-2008, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I believe you are right but I think Obama has more like 250 electoral votes rather than the 273 shown on your map. Still all he needs is one big state and McCain needs nearly all of them to win.

Milkman · 04-10-2008, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I believe you are right but I think Obama has more like 250 electoral votes rather than the 273 shown on your map. Still all he needs is one big state and McCain needs nearly all of them to win.

There are many electoral models out there. Some of them are interactive, meaning you can choose the states to manipulat the electoral vote total.

I think the electoral map above is the most conservative so far. I also believe that at least the CNN polling is trying to make this race look closer than it really is by over-stating the undecideds, IMO.

If McCain loses one of the following states, he'll lose, IMO:

Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida.

keda · 04-10-2008, 07:16 PM

I'd still like to know the basics, like his pedigree and where he was born, just to clarify his basic qualifications for the Presidency.

Anyone expect to know before November?

ChiangMai noon · 04-10-2008, 08:40 PM

^
have a look here instead then.

wonderful site based on scientific analysis rather than political bias.

it's game over earl.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

Mr Earl · 04-10-2008, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

it's game over earl.

Righto!

Time to go jump off the balcony.

Boon Mee · 04-10-2008, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

it's game over earl.

Righto!

Time to go jump off the balcony.

Fried chicken and watermelon on the menu 7 days a week at the WH?

...what a thought

Milkman · 04-10-2008, 09:56 PM

The Republican National Committee (RNC) is now spending time, effort, and money in Indiana and Missouri.

This....is telling.

mad_dog · 04-10-2008, 10:21 PM

Brothers going to work it out !

HungryHeart · 05-10-2008, 12:26 AM

Anyone know what odds the bookmakers in Vegas are laying out for the election?

keda · 05-10-2008, 12:48 AM

Betfair: Dems in front with 75% chance, from 56% 3 weeks ago, which doesn't reconcile with their rider that it ain't plain sailing.

Oddschecker (does a basket) has Hussein at between 3s and 4s on, with McCain between 11/5 and 3s.

VCBet not competitive either side, not interested.

Didn't realise the situation was that bad...could be the guy just might pull off the 2nd greatest hoax in recorded history.

Jet Gorgon · 05-10-2008, 04:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

^
wonderful site based on scientific analysis rather than political bias.

555555555 (sorry, scientific?)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

it's game over earl.

Righto!

Time to go jump off the balcony.

Fried chicken and watermelon on the menu 7 days a week at the WH?

C'mon! Arugula salad with ham hocks, corn bread and moonshine, Bro! High five and fist punch. Hallelujah!

Mr Earl · 05-10-2008, 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keda

Didn't realise the situation was that bad...could be the guy just might pull off the 2nd greatest hoax in recorded history.

The 1913 creation of the federal reserve being the first.
The economic situation is clearly helping Barry.

HungryHeart · 05-10-2008, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keda

Betfair: Dems in front with 75% chance

Makes those morons on Fox look like bullshit artists.

lom · 05-10-2008, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

The economic situation is clearly helping Barry.

Yeah, it's been an eye-opener for Joe Public.

keda · 05-10-2008, 01:36 PM

Will also help Hussein if there are no major Islamic terror outrage against the US in the next month...can't imagine why though!

Btw, anyone care to guess when and where the hopeful messiah was born? What, no offers?

Milkman · 05-10-2008, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keda

Will also help Hussein if there are no major Islamic terror outrage against the US in the next month...can't imagine why though!

Btw, anyone care to guess when and where the hopeful messiah was born? What, no offers?

He was born in Honolulu, Hawaii in 1961, after Hawaii attained statehood.

Do you claim otherwise?

View Poll Results: Who will be the next US President?
Obama	33	66.00%
McCain	12	24.00%
Neither	1	2.00%
Honestly don't care	4	8.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

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04-10-2008, 04:35 PM	#4 (permalink)
Milkman Gone Off Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: shelf Posts: 15,355	Let's just say, for example....that McCain wins these following states, hypothetically. But....Some of these McCain states in the model below are toss-ups and some are now "leaning" and "strong" for Obama:

04-10-2008, 07:16 PM	#7 (permalink)
keda Senior Member Last Online: 24-02-2009 04:49 PM Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,808	I'd still like to know the basics, like his pedigree and where he was born, just to clarify his basic qualifications for the Presidency. Anyone expect to know before November?

04-10-2008, 08:40 PM	#8 (permalink)
ChiangMai noon punk douche bag Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: o dan y bryn Posts: 28,059	^ have a look here instead then. wonderful site based on scientific analysis rather than political bias. it's game over earl. FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

04-10-2008, 09:56 PM	#11 (permalink)
Milkman Gone Off Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: shelf Posts: 15,355	The Republican National Committee (RNC) is now spending time, effort, and money in Indiana and Missouri. This....is telling.

04-10-2008, 10:21 PM	#12 (permalink)
mad_dog Thailand Forum Last Online: 16-11-2009 10:46 PM Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 4,976	Brothers going to work it out !

05-10-2008, 12:26 AM	#13 (permalink)
HungryHeart I am in Jail Last Online: 15-11-2008 10:08 PM Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 76	Anyone know what odds the bookmakers in Vegas are laying out for the election?

05-10-2008, 12:48 AM	#14 (permalink)
keda Senior Member Last Online: 24-02-2009 04:49 PM Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,808	Betfair: Dems in front with 75% chance, from 56% 3 weeks ago, which doesn't reconcile with their rider that it ain't plain sailing. Oddschecker (does a basket) has Hussein at between 3s and 4s on, with McCain between 11/5 and 3s. VCBet not competitive either side, not interested. Didn't realise the situation was that bad...could be the guy just might pull off the 2nd greatest hoax in recorded history.

05-10-2008, 01:36 PM	#19 (permalink)
keda Senior Member Last Online: 24-02-2009 04:49 PM Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,808	Will also help Hussein if there are no major Islamic terror outrage against the US in the next month...can't imagine why though! Btw, anyone care to guess when and where the hopeful messiah was born? What, no offers?

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