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Jet Gorgon

^ Good points, but I think America wants a leader who is nice but shows the world he is no-nonsense.
I know the pipelines supply Euro, but Georgia is the conduit for the west. Supply Euro from there and the US doesn't have to fight for the rest.
If Euro disappeared? Buy California wine and Canadian cheddar, I guess. I see Euro imploding anyway with its heavy tax-burden socialist systems and inability to deal with immigration matters.

Norton

No need to use names that could be offensive to some. Suggest you read "March of Folly" by Barbara Tuchman. Plenty of analogies can be derived to make your point without using "sensitive" names.

Jet Gorgon

^ I read plenty of Tuchman. She wrote her own history.

Jet Gorgon

Here's the latest from the Economist.

Dear reader,
With the Democratic convention taking place next week, we look at Barack Obama's loss of momentum. Unless the party can unite convincingly and Mr Obama show the sort of courage that John McCain has, the Democrats will lose the presidency. If that happens, after Katrina, Iraq and an economic crisis, they should consider an alternative line of work. That's from the mag email it sends out every week. Send those Dems to be Euro union workers.

Sorry, here's the article. I'll add in full coz in case the new issue is blocked on the web.

The American presidential race
The hard road ahead

Aug 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition
Barack Obama still has a lot to do

Getty Images
ON AUGUST 28th, barring some dark manoeuvre by seething Clintonistas, Barack Obama will accept the Democratic nomination for the presidency. Forty-five years to the day after Martin Luther King spoke of his dream, America will take a giant leap towards the realisation of that great call for justice. Hundreds of millions will watch, and be moved; Mr Obama seems to many, by reason of his race, his calm intelligence, his youthful good looks and his powerful oratorical skills, to be well suited to draw a line beneath the bitter Bush years and to repair America’s torn relationship with the outside world. One prominent pundit was much derided earlier this year for describing the tingle he got from listening to the candidate—but everyone knew exactly what he meant.
This moment comes as much through perspiration as through inspiration. Mr Obama’s achievement in defeating the Clinton machine was monumental. Hillary Clinton started out as the overwhelming favourite, with the Democratic Party establishment, not to mention its big-ticket donors, squarely behind her and poll leads that sometimes topped 20 percentage points. But Mr Obama ran a brilliant campaign, using the internet to harness the energy and the donations of an army of volunteers, and deploying them with tactical skill in almost every state. He managed the firestorm touched off by his intemperate pastor, Jeremiah Wright, with dignity and, eventually, ruthlessness.

When it comes to the issues, it is hardly surprising that The Economist is less impressed. Mr Obama’s tilt towards protectionism during the primary campaign was both wrong and dangerous. So was his insistence on denying funds to the “surge” that has worked so well (if belatedly) in Iraq, and his determination to withdraw troops from the conflict according to a rigid timetable. We are nervous about his incentive-destroying willingness to raise taxes sharply on the well-off, and of the cost implications of many of his policies. But we recognise that his positions have evolved as the campaign has moved from the primary stage, where politicians have to outdo each other in their appeal to their party faithful, to the general election. Were he to become president, they would move further to the centre again. And policies are by no means the whole story of an American election: character and leadership matter greatly, too. Mr Obama is an impressive nominee with the potential to be a fine president.

Democratic doubts
But the road to the White House is still a hard one. Even though the Republican brand is as contaminated as a Soviet-era reactor, and 80% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, Mr Obama is barely ahead of his septuagenarian Republican rival. He is less popular than his party as a whole: in “generic” polling, people prefer Democrats to Republicans by around 12 points, but Mr Obama is ahead of John McCain by an average of only around 45% to 43%. One poll this week had Mr McCain five points ahead. The presidential debates, which will start next month, usually sway a lot of voters. Mr Obama is generally held to have lost his only encounter so far with Mr McCain, in back-to-back interviews with Rick Warren, an evangelical pastor, on August 16th. In the battleground states which will determine the result, Mr McCain has steadily been gaining ground; if the polls are borne out, the result, as in 2000 and 2004, will be nerve-janglingly close.

Many Americans, including a dangerously large number of Democrats, still have their doubts about Mr Obama. Some see him as too young and inexperienced for a dangerous world; others find him unattractively self-regarding and aloof; still others question his patriotism. Many resent his apparent flip-flopping on important issues, like gun-control and whether or not to talk to Iran and Syria, as well as less important ones, like whether to wear a flag pin. His cynical breaking of a promise to be bound by federal campaign-finance limits was shabby by any standards. Perhaps the most damning criticism of him is that he has never exhibited political courage by daring to take on any of his party’s powerful interests, as his rival, John McCain, has done over many issues, including global warming, campaign-finance reform, immigration and torture.

Yes, he still can
From the moment of his coronation in Denver, Mr Obama will have 68 days to allay these doubts. There is not much he can do about his thin résumé or his lack of foreign-policy and security expertise, though he can mitigate the latter somewhat with an astute choice of running mate. And it is a bit late now for principled stands in the Senate. Mr Obama could certainly tone down the triumphalism: opting to make his acceptance speech not in the convention hall but in a 75,000-seater sports stadium seems like another mistake, akin to his hubristic rock-star’s tour of Europe. He needs to be a lot clearer and firmer about how he will deal with America’s foes and rivals: his first instinct when Russia invaded Georgia was to waffle. Acknowledging that the Iraq surge, which he tried to block, has worked would also be a sign of tough-mindedness.

Most of all, he needs to spend those 68 days showing that he understands, and can connect with, ordinary Americans. The economy ought to be the Democrats’ trump card, just as security tends to be the Republicans’. But some of the most surprising recent polls show that Mr Obama is rated lower by voters on how he would handle the economy than is Mr McCain, who has admitted that he doesn’t know much about the subject. That may be because Mr Obama often sounds curiously disconnected from the troubles of anyone except America’s very poorest. Mrs Clinton was much better at empathising with middle America, and Mr Obama needs to show he has learnt from her.

That could also help heal the wounds of the Democratic Party, which, after the bitter contest and Mr Obama’s narrow victory, are still raw. If the Democrats remain divided they will lose the presidency. Were that to happen, after Iraq, Katrina and an economic crisis, they might well want to consider an alternative line of work.
The American presidential race | The hard road ahead | Economist.com

Good piece as usual, IMO. I think it hits the key issues. To me the most important are taxation and his ability (or rather, lack thereof) to handle a crisis.

bkkandrew

Only just read this thread. My observations:

Britmaverick gives his normal, ill-thought-out one-liners;
Democrats and Republicans line up to slag each other off in an entirely predictable way;
I am underwhelmed by Obama and McCain, the former could cause a major devide in the US, along with being lightweight on many issues. The latter is a joke candidate from a former era.

Bob Barr is a good third choice, but his views are somewhat hard to believe, as they have changed beyond recognition.

Alan Keyes is just a nutcase.

Perhaps re-colonialism is the answer?

Jet Gorgon

^ Monarchy? King and Queen Clinton for the Dems, King (name your fav) for the Reps.

Mr Earl

I'm not sure what the democrats are thinking as they nominate an Arabic speaking black man with an long history of connections to black racists, corrupt Chicago business, Kenyan radical Islamist and other far left causes.
John Kerry stood a better chance of getting elected.
As soon as the word gets out about who Obama really is, it will be mayhem in the democratic party.
I don't see how they could think he'd be elected just because he's black.
Sure America is ready for an African American president. But it should be someone qualified like Colin Powel, Condi Rice, Micheal S. Steele, even Harold Ford jr would be a better choice than Barry O.
I'm starting to think this election will be a rout for Obama.

Bugs

Some more Clinton conspriracy talk:
the orange party: Is Clinton Plotting A Convention Coup?
The general tone of the artical is too harsh, and I doubt that Clinton stands a chance in hell of getting the VP nod. But the simple fact the Clinton folks won't let go does not bode well for the blue team.

As McCain gains on Obama and over takes him in some polls the last thing the blue teams needs is more and more in-fighting. Billy-bob was good for the party, but I think his wife has been very, very bad for the party.

__________________
"Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it, you'd have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, it takes religion" - Steven Weinberg

Jet Gorgon

^Cut to the quick and smash em blog, Bugs. He has given away many gifts to the Clinton royals and will likely pay, unless he has an ace up his sleeve. And I don't think that'll be Michelle.
But, BO's gonna announce veep on Saturday, no?

Norton

Obama is going to pick a VP that can not only bring in votes but will not hesitate to fire both barrels at the Reps when they pull off their tried and proven method of negative campaigning. It is clear Obama is not going to stand by and let the Reps get away with it either. Since his return from holiday he has begun taking direct aim at the accusations and innuendos coming out of the McCain camp. Expect this to continue.

The Reps and McCain are in for a real big surprise. The Dems are well aware they have lost elections they should have won because the candidates have in general taken the "high road". The game has changed. Unfortunately, accusations and negativity will be the norm from both sides this go around. If the Dems lose this time it won't be because they failed to hit back.

__________________
Eat right, exercise daily, live clean, die anyway.

raycarey

and they're going on the offensive too...the 'how many houses' ad was put out in a matter of hours.

just when mccain was trying to paint obama as an 'elite', he couldn't remember how many houses he owned and decided to tell US voters that $5 million in income is the line which determines who is rich and who isn't.

__________________

Mr Earl

This one's already backfired in a big way.
1. the question to McCain was how many houses he and his WIFE owned.(being worth 100's of million she owns a bunch) I'm sure he doesn't know what all she's got,
So what? Since when is it a crime in the USA to be rich?
2. Attacking McCain on this issue opens the door wide open on Barry's sweetheart deal with Tony Rezco the convicted felon. oops!

Norton

Yep. Sure does. Then opens the door for McCain's whatever from Obama. Whole bloody thing will make TD MKP look like a bastion of decorum and intelligent debate.

Bugs

Maybe, but the biggest surprise for me so far this campaign has been how close McCain was once the two nominees were locked in, and then how he has been able to close to basically even since then. Granted Obama was on vacation last week, and the blue team convention is right round the corner. But if they don't get a significant bump with the announcement of the VP and the convention then it will probably be neck n' neck until the election (unless something significant happens or is uncovered between now and then).

IMHO this says quite a lot about how poor the blue team are at putting it together when it counts. With the way things are now in regard to folks feelings about Bush and the general feeling about the red team they should have been running away with this thing from the get go – and they have not.

As for Obama going on the offensive - not surprising. He has shown time and again that he is not unlike every other politician. The sad thing is that the American public has shown time and again for all their talk about not wanting all the mud slinging, that mud slinging is what seems to move the poll numbers.

Bugs

I think the current situation in Iraq plays well for McCain. The surge is getting hardly anything but good press, and now it seems there will be a basic (but flexible) timeline set to get the troop count down in ’09, and out by ’12. Granted that is not as fast as Obama has indicated he wants to get them out. But the simple fact there will already be a plan in place to get them out will take some steam out of that part of the issue.

Deal would have U.S. troops out of Iraq by 2012 - CNN.com

Quote:

Deal would have U.S. troops out of Iraq by 2012

Norton

According to the "analysts" has something to do with the Georgian crisis. That is likely to be forgotten in a few weeks so maybe the polls will change as quickly and dramatically as they have every time a new one comes out. Both will get an uptick or down tick after they announce VPs but that will likely be short lived. Obama's choice will be much more important. If it's one that will unite the Dems, the sheer superiority in registered Dems will make it difficult for the Republican's to overcome.

BTW, I use this site as it gives poll averages and has a neat little running tally graph showing poll average comparison.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama


It is unfortunate but true.

This of course will keep the race close all the way to election day. May well boil down to which guy gets in the last shot.

Norton

It will. Wonder if any "political" consideration regarding this by the Administration. Nah, they would never do that. Would they?

Texpat

It's a move the GOP should have made before the campaign began in my opinion. Foremost because it makes sense, and secondarily to avoid letting the democrats make it an election issue.
Funny, 12 months ago, I'm not sure the Iraqis were anxious for such a deal.

Maybe it was that evil Bush bastard's idea to make it look like the Iraqis demanded a timetable ... forcing him into his Texas Hold'em role.

yeah, that's it.

attaboy

Obama, yesterday: "Everybody's watching what's going on in Beijing right now with the Olympics , Think about the amount of money that China has spent on infrastructure. Their ports, their train systems, their airports are vastly the superior to us now, which means if you are a corporation deciding where to do business, you're starting to think, 'Beijing looks like a pretty good option.'"

Yeah, and when they have an earthquake 10,000 people die in the resulting rubble.

Try taking a shit on a Chinese passenger train, Obama.

Try geting your product through customs, Obama.

Try breathing the air in Chengdu or anywhere else.

Try getting a train to anywhere other than where the military is needed.

Chinese smash airport in air rage riot


Remember the poisoned dog food exported to the USA? Howabout the toys with lead paint? These are the guys you want producing goods with your label on it. They'll be standing right beside you when you're hauled into court.

Face it. Obama is a qualified street agitator and that's about it.

__________________
As a kid I always thought my nickname was "attaboy" until I realized they were rooting for the dog: "Attaboy, get 'em! Get 'em!".

raycarey

you'd be better off going back to 'uppity'.