The Thailand expat forum for Travel, Lifestyle and Fun.

bkkandrew

^Sorry, I missed the ? too...

Jet Gorgon

^ Hard to put the tonal inflection in a written post.

Norton

Missed it too. Thought you were asking a question/opinion?

bkkandrew

Anyway, didn't work. Hong Kong down 5%, Nikkei 4%, FTSE just opened 2% down, DAX 3%.

DOW will probably slide 5% at a guess...

Norton

Someone once told me there was big money to be made in falling stock market conditions. Any hints from the experts?

Butterfly

only on a uptick, which means you can't short a stock when it's already sliding,

Spin

No need to short sell. Theres plenty of Etf's that go up when the market goes down. My favourite is SKF from http://proshares
This one gives double inverse of the financial sector, it dipped to $112 the other day but has shot back up and will be trading in the 142-145 range today.

raycarey

SDS, SH and UDN are also benefiting from the turmoil in the equity and currency markets. while not focused on US markets, FXP is also nice play during this meltdown.

raycarey

7:45 EST..DOW futures down 200.

Butterfly

Black Monday ? sure sounds like it

bkkandrew

Lehman Bros today down 44%. Next bailout candidate without a doubt!

Bloomberg.com: Movers by Index

bkkandrew

Moneyweek's Analysis of the Riskiest Banks:

As determined by credit default swaps:

Worst CDS Ratings:
1. Kaupthing 833.3
2. Kazkommerts 766.7
3. Glitnir Bank 757.5
4. IKB 612.4
5. Landsbanki 604.6
6. Banca Italease 397.0
7. VTB Bank 332.5
8. Anglo Irish Bank 322.7
9. HBOS 236.7
10. Sberbank 221.3
11. West LB 212.5
12. UBS 209.0
13. Natixis 205.0
14. Bank of Ireland 202.5
15. Allied Irish Banks 195.8
16. Dexia 195.0
17. RBS 191.7

In laymans terms, higher the CDS, the riskier it is to lend money to.

Even more layman:

Gentleman Scamp would be 1000, Dr Naam (on TV) would be 10... (no offence GMS)

bkkandrew

UK Banks scramble for BoE funds as crisis worsens

Banks scramble for BoE funds as crisis worsens | Markets | US | Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England's emergency offer of 5 billion pounds of 3-day loans was nearly five times oversubscribed on Monday as financial institutions scrambled for cash in the face of a global credit crunch.

Aimed at restoring confidence to panicky markets in the wake of the weekend firesale of U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns, the loan offer was only the second such "exceptional" operation since the crisis began last summer.

But investors were scared things would get worse and sold the pound and stocks aggressively. Sterling's trade-weighted index hit its lowest level since March 1997 and the FTSE 100 index of leading shares fell nearly 4 percent.

The BoE said it wanted to bring overnight interest rates down. Banks were so fearful of each others' solvency on Monday they were charging more than 25 basis points above the main central bank lending rate for loans of even just one day.

"Given the money market conditions this morning, the situation is very serious and represents a new and unwanted twist to the credit squeeze," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec. "Five billion pounds represents a substantial sum."

The last time the central bank took such a step was in September just after the run on Northern Rock bank, Britain's fifth-biggest mortgage lender, which was later nationalized.

PANIC EVERYWHERE

The BoE said that like other central banks it was keeping a close eye on developments. On Tuesday, it is offering 10 billion pounds worth of three-month loans in coordinated global action to restore confidence to jittery markets.

Continued...

bkkandrew

Ah, I also missed:

UK banks rush to borrow at BoE auction - Telegraph

Jet Gorgon

^ Tks, BA. Heard a bit of that this morning. FTSE firms are nervous.

Not an expert, but this is getting close to the time to buy. Everybody hates financials right now, but keep watching. JPM rose almost 4 bucks today coz it got Bear Sterns' assets (as Spin pointed out, look at its Manhattan real estate) for a song; dunno if the Fed will relieve it of Bear's obligations.
Look for strong fundamentals, good cash flow with minimum debt. I'll go back into the financials soon, coz they are a necessity to any market. Wanna play it safe, utilities and cos with cheap outsourcing. Good divs at the utils, but I reckon they're already discounted into most of the prices. But, it's pick by pick.
Bfly and Ray are probably buying energy stocks now, which are at the top of their 5-yr ranges.
I'm watching C. Dunno about LEH; need more news on the internal biz (heard intl broker mgmt canned biz with LEH and then reversed the order).
Uh ya, you don't short a stock when the prices are already falling.
Lots of choice bottom-picking right now. But caution rules.

raycarey

considering your track record (what happened to yesterday's "morning cheer"---possibly the most absurd call i've heard or read about financial markets in....well, perhaps ever....the 5th largest bank in the US essentially goes under, the fed lowers the discount rate .25 on a SUNDAY, and you think the market is going to react positively monday morning?), i'll pass on your future investment advice....and i think others would be wise to do the same.

thanks anyway.

btw, the dow and S&P haven't even corrected 20% from their october highs yet.....and does anyone think this is going to be a 'normal' correction? for reference, the S&P got a haircut of approx 40% in 2002. i'm certainly not offering advice to norton as to when to try and time the bottom, but IMO we're nowhere near it yet.

another jet gorgon prediction that has no basis in fact. as MM knows, i've been short equities (mainly the S&P, and some individual sectors) and the dollar for over six months. how about you?

raycarey

back on topic.... herb greenberg had an interesting column on marketwatch yesterday about who really owns those shares if your broker goes belly up.....you or the broker.
you might be surprised.

Herb Greenberg » Blog Archive » How to Keep your Investments Safe

a bit alarmist, but food for thought.

raycarey

seems a significant point to me....maybe that's why you're dodging it.

well, no point kicking you when you're down. run along li'l jetty.

Jet Gorgon

^as usual, you missed the point and the irony.

Butterfly

Quite alarmist but all true neverless. Love the comments, all those guys calling their brokers and finding out how much they are exposed.