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britmaveric · 22-09-2008, 11:14 AM

^Well no problem if the person is qualified and let's be honest BO isn't.

panama hat · 22-09-2008, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pai nai ma

^ i think this but i cannot say it aloud.

it is so utterly sickening to me....

Yup, I agree . . .

Quite a few people I know in the US feel the same, irrespective of their political leanings.

Quote:

^Well no problem if the person is qualified and let's be honest BO isn't.

But, Britmaverick, no one person really leads the nation, there are countless advisers surrounding the president pretty much at all times.

Is any one person 'qualified' to lead what is unarguably the most powerful (economic and militarily) nation around?

Of course not.

sabang · 22-09-2008, 12:05 PM

With BO's impressive academic achievements, public organising experience, experience as a practising attorney, public speaking abilities, Senatorial experience, general health and demeanour he is perfectly well qualified for the role.

Add to that the fact he has one of the most experienced Washington old hands as his VP, and a bipartisan approach to the officials he will nominate to posts of influence (in contrast to the neo-cons), plus the back-up of the Democrat party machine and Capitol in general and the squeaking from the peanut gallery (they who nominated Palin as their VP

) is just so much Hype. As predictable as it is pathetic.

britmaveric · 22-09-2008, 12:06 PM

^You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

panama hat · 22-09-2008, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britmaveric

^You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

One can only hope that doesn't happen.

I actually quite liked McCain as the Rep choice, particularly his not-too-partisan views . . . but when he cuddled up to the right-wing of the party I lost faith that he was indeed an agent for change or a maverick . . . and the cynical choice of Palin decided it for me.

I am now worried that if he wins (which I believe he will, for the wrong reasons) he will simply be as beholden to the same forces that Bush is/was.

pai nai ma · 22-09-2008, 12:16 PM

if that kunt mccain pulls this shit off i may never go back to the usa. already the reasons are slim and the cost high.

fuk i feel more at home as alice in Thailand than i do in the country of my birth.

ChiangMai noon · 22-09-2008, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britmaveric

You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

so there.

nernerner.

Boon Mee · 22-09-2008, 08:39 PM

The Palin Effect in the Intrade Presidential Election Futures

The raw data show the Palin Effect in the dramatic turn around in the futures prices with McCain trailing for many months and Obama leading. In early September there is a sudden reversal. Politics, like life, is dominated by extreme events which only a heavy tailed distribution can capture. None of the other election models are capable of capturing these extreme events. They are far too static and tame. The polls only partly capture the Palin Effect. It is real and dramatic.

[This] calculates the probabilities of winning for both candidates using the stable model of the trading returns. This projects the returns forward based on the number of days remaining and the dynamics of the movements.
His calculations give these probabilities:
Data scaled by 53 days. Last data point on Fri 12 Sep 2008.

Probability of McCain win in November 0.760798
Probability of Obama win in November 0.370827

Using only the last 90 days, the probabilities are:

Probability of McCain win in November 0.930025
Probability of Obama win in November 0.263054

Sarah Palin is a Black Swan (to use a phrase made popular by Nassim Taleb’s best-selling book The Black Swan). The Palin Effect is a rare event of low probability but consequential magnitude that falsifies a theory. More than all the commentary in the media, this graph dramatically shows the Palin Effect. She has completely reversed the fortunes of the candidates"

Arthur De Vany

Heh...like the guy says, markets are better projectors of future events than polls.
Adios BO!

pai nai ma · 22-09-2008, 09:30 PM

What is happening on the far right of that graph, boonme?

ChiangMai noon · 22-09-2008, 10:37 PM

^
looks like mcain goes shooting past Obama in September to me.

raycarey · 22-09-2008, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Democrats eager to portray John McCain as out of touch with average Americans and as a flip-flopper seized on a report Sunday the Arizona senator and his wife, Cindy, own more than a dozen cars — including several foreign-made automobiles.

A Newsweek article published on the magazine's Web Site Sunday said registration records show the McCains currently own 13 cars — two of which are foreign-made: a Honda and a Volkswagen. That appears to contradict the Republican presidential nominee's claim that he only buys cars made in America. (Cindy McCain also drives a Lexus and daughter Meghan owns a Toyota Prius, but neither are registered to the McCains.)

Newsweek also reported Barack Obama owns one car: a Ford Escape Hybrid.

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Dems seize on McCain’s 13 cars « - Blogs from CNN.com

13 cars.....let's see how that plays on main st.

Boon Mee · 23-09-2008, 12:39 AM

Heh...no wonder it's flop-sweat time for the Democrats!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/21/MNPP130KA7.DTL&feed=rss.news

Jet Gorgon · 23-09-2008, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raycarey

13 cars.....let's see how that plays on main st.

One for each house, and a couple left over for guests.
Two foreign cars? A Honda and a VW? (Maybe they are his wife's or built in the US of A?) 555 Poor lefties, pouncing at any straw. Maybe freak-out time if he had a Rolls or a Bentley or an Aston Martin.

Boon Mee · 23-09-2008, 01:51 AM

Heh - this video says it all. And, it ain't astroturf...

YouTube - Chicago Machine

Boon Mee · 23-09-2008, 01:57 AM

^BTW the term 'astroturf' is succently defined here

Jet Gorgon · 23-09-2008, 07:10 AM

The only thing is that the candidates said they would not do attack ads.

attaboy · 23-09-2008, 07:17 AM

The Spanish ad Obama endorses is a low as a candidate can go.

sabang · 23-09-2008, 10:47 AM

Virginia has not voted Dem since 1964, but in this election it is a key battleground state.

In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

Poll Shows Obama With Three-Point Lead Over McCain

Virginia, a traditionally conservative state, has become a key battleground, with 13 electoral votes at stake in the election. A Democrat has not carried the state of Virginia since 1964, and few have seriously competed in Virginia -- until Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

ABC News: In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

pai nai ma · 23-09-2008, 11:10 AM

rezko is clearly a weak point for obama. i would hammer it if he were my opponent.

Milkman · 23-09-2008, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabang

Virginia has not voted Dem since 1964, but in this election it is a key battleground state.

In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

Poll Shows Obama With Three-Point Lead Over McCain

Virginia, a traditionally conservative state, has become a key battleground, with 13 electoral votes at stake in the election. A Democrat has not carried the state of Virginia since 1964, and few have seriously competed in Virginia -- until Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

ABC News: In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

I think Virginia is a must win state for Obama since Pennsylvania, Ohio, and possible Florida are leanging towards McCain.

22-09-2008, 12:05 PM	#1903 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 05:10 PM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: where the streets have no name Posts: 11,500	With BO's impressive academic achievements, public organising experience, experience as a practising attorney, public speaking abilities, Senatorial experience, general health and demeanour he is perfectly well qualified for the role. Add to that the fact he has one of the most experienced Washington old hands as his VP, and a bipartisan approach to the officials he will nominate to posts of influence (in contrast to the neo-cons), plus the back-up of the Democrat party machine and Capitol in general and the squeaking from the peanut gallery (they who nominated Palin as their VP ) is just so much Hype. As predictable as it is pathetic. __________________ To err is human. To blame someone else is politics.

22-09-2008, 08:39 PM	#1908 (permalink)
Boon Mee Thailand Travel Forum Last Online: Today 05:23 PM Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 12,871	The Palin Effect in the Intrade Presidential Election Futures The raw data show the Palin Effect in the dramatic turn around in the futures prices with McCain trailing for many months and Obama leading. In early September there is a sudden reversal. Politics, like life, is dominated by extreme events which only a heavy tailed distribution can capture. None of the other election models are capable of capturing these extreme events. They are far too static and tame. The polls only partly capture the Palin Effect. It is real and dramatic. [This] calculates the probabilities of winning for both candidates using the stable model of the trading returns. This projects the returns forward based on the number of days remaining and the dynamics of the movements. His calculations give these probabilities: Data scaled by 53 days. Last data point on Fri 12 Sep 2008. Probability of McCain win in November 0.760798 Probability of Obama win in November 0.370827 Using only the last 90 days, the probabilities are: Probability of McCain win in November 0.930025 Probability of Obama win in November 0.263054 Sarah Palin is a Black Swan (to use a phrase made popular by Nassim Taleb’s best-selling book The Black Swan). The Palin Effect is a rare event of low probability but consequential magnitude that falsifies a theory. More than all the commentary in the media, this graph dramatically shows the Palin Effect. She has completely reversed the fortunes of the candidates" Arthur De Vany Heh...like the guy says, markets are better projectors of future events than polls. Adios BO! __________________ ผมเป็นคนบ้านนอก

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22-09-2008, 11:14 AM	#1901 (permalink)
britmaveric nid aur yw popeth melyn Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 3,921	^Well no problem if the person is qualified and let's be honest BO isn't.

22-09-2008, 12:06 PM	#1904 (permalink)
britmaveric nid aur yw popeth melyn Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 3,921	^You won't be saying that when McCain/Palin wins.

22-09-2008, 12:16 PM	#1906 (permalink)
pai nai ma I am in Jail Last Online: 18-12-2008 08:14 PM Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,038	if that kunt mccain pulls this shit off i may never go back to the usa. already the reasons are slim and the cost high. fuk i feel more at home as alice in Thailand than i do in the country of my birth.

22-09-2008, 09:30 PM	#1909 (permalink)
pai nai ma I am in Jail Last Online: 18-12-2008 08:14 PM Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,038	What is happening on the far right of that graph, boonme?

22-09-2008, 10:37 PM	#1910 (permalink)
ChiangMai noon punk douche bag Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: o dan y bryn Posts: 28,341	^ looks like mcain goes shooting past Obama in September to me.

23-09-2008, 12:39 AM	#1912 (permalink)
Boon Mee Thailand Travel Forum Last Online: Today 05:23 PM Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 12,871	Heh...no wonder it's flop-sweat time for the Democrats! http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/21/MNPP130KA7.DTL&feed=rss.news

23-09-2008, 01:57 AM	#1915 (permalink)
Boon Mee Thailand Travel Forum Last Online: Today 05:23 PM Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 12,871	^BTW the term 'astroturf' is succently defined here

23-09-2008, 07:10 AM	#1916 (permalink)
Jet Gorgon Jihad Barbie Last Online: Today 05:48 PM Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Near Libbies Posts: 12,428	The only thing is that the candidates said they would not do attack ads.

23-09-2008, 07:17 AM	#1917 (permalink)
attaboy Elite Member Last Online: 01-11-2009 06:53 AM Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 2,908	The Spanish ad Obama endorses is a low as a candidate can go.

23-09-2008, 10:47 AM	#1918 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 05:10 PM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: where the streets have no name Posts: 11,500	Virginia has not voted Dem since 1964, but in this election it is a key battleground state. In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground Poll Shows Obama With Three-Point Lead Over McCain Virginia, a traditionally conservative state, has become a key battleground, with 13 electoral votes at stake in the election. A Democrat has not carried the state of Virginia since 1964, and few have seriously competed in Virginia -- until Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. ABC News: In Tight Race, Obama Pulls Ahead in Virginia Battleground

23-09-2008, 11:10 AM	#1919 (permalink)
pai nai ma I am in Jail Last Online: 18-12-2008 08:14 PM Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,038	rezko is clearly a weak point for obama. i would hammer it if he were my opponent.

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