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Bugs · 15-09-2008, 11:19 AM

This should be of assistance to anyone (US citizen) that wants to vote:
Voting is made easier for Americans abroad - International Herald Tribune

Quote:

Software on the group's Web site, www.overseasvotefoundation.org, allows voters not only to print out the Federal Write-in Absentee Ballot, available to anyone failing to receive requested ballots in time; it uses their home ZIP codes to fill in the names of all relevant federal candidates.

Quote:

To be sure that completed ballots are received by election offices in time - often a major impediment to voting successfully - another Overseas Vote Foundation initiative beginning Monday, in conjunction with FedEx, allows voters in 89 countries to send back ballots via the express service either free or at sharply discounted rates, depending on the country.

Quote:

Information is also available from the Web sites of the two major U.S. political parties: Frontpage | Democrats Abroad and Republicans Abroad.

Bugs · 16-09-2008, 01:28 PM

What's up with Rasmussen Reports? As of late most of their state-by-state polls have been conducted in combination with FOX News. If Rasmussen wants to be considered an independent source they should certainly stay away from partnering with FOX News.

Yesterday they released state polls from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virgina - all were joint polls with FOX News.

Texpat · 16-09-2008, 01:47 PM

^^ Cheers for that link Bugs. I'm subscribed to the US Embassy e-mail news here and they're usually good about sending out stuff like this. I would expect one soon.

Maybe I'll go do my weekly e-mail check.

raycarey · 16-09-2008, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

What's up with Rasmussen Reports?

gee, whoda thunk it?

Bugs · 17-09-2008, 11:37 PM

Not sure why they partnered up with FOX on those but the two latest Rassmussen Reports state polls where not done with FOX, they were Oregon and Wisconsin. Both with Obama in the lead but McCain has closed the gap in Wisconsin from a double digit (11) lead to within four:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Oregon - not much of a change - Obama gained a point - now up by 10:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Also good new for Obama - the Gallup poll has the race now with a single point lead for McCain:
Gallup Daily: Election 2008

Latest AP (with GFK) has McCain up by four:
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK...ings_final.pdf

Latest ARG has McCain up by three:
American Research Group

ARG also has some state polls included some of the state findings that I thought were interesting:
Colorado - McCain is up by 2 - this looks to be a toss-up state all the way to the end.
Illinois - Obama up by only 6 - I would expect Obama to carry Illinois by double digits
New Mexico - Obama by 6 - more than I expected - even though most seem to feel New Mexico will go down to the wire.
Ohio - McCain up by 6 - I think McCain will lock up Ohio with little problem come Nov
WV - McCain up by only 4 - I think McCain will win WV by double digits - and yes I think it will be mainly because of race.

All the states seem to indicate that less than 10% of voters stil remain undecided.

Bugs · 18-09-2008, 12:08 AM

I have two articals I will post about the swings in the polls, that have develope, and might still develope.

The first one kind of outlining the bounce that McCain got from the combination of the Palin pick and the red team convention:
McCain Has the Advantage Over Obama in Post-Convention Polls - Michael Barone (usnews.com)

I don't think there is any doubt that McCain got a bigger bounce out of the convention and the Palin pick, than Obama got out of the convention and the Biden pick. But much of that lead has been eliminated. That being said I am sure McCain would prefer to be on top (still inside the margin of error) as opposed to being on the bottom.

Quote:

The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and ficethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.

I think McCain will not really have a problem locking up Ohio in Nov. But it will be interesting to see how the current economic situation effects things in the weeks to come.

Quote:

The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating.

I know the polls are tight in Virginia, but I do think McCain will carry Virginia come Nov. Not sure about Colorado.

Quote:

The new marginals. Obama has been running consistently better than John Kerry or Al Gore in Colorado and Virginia, states that have had comparatively vibrant economies and have also seen influxes of young voters, who tend to be heavily pro-Obama.

Polling in some of these states is a bit up in the air. I would agree McCain will land Alaska, Montana, North/Sourth Dakota. I think Minnesota and Wisconsin might be toss-up (Minnesotat more so than Wisconsin), but I have a hard time believing that McCain has a real shot at either Oregon or Washington.

Quote:

The northern tier. The Obama campaign had hoped to be competitive in some northern tier states: the Dakotas, Montana, and Alaska. Pre-convention polls provided some reasonable basis for this hope. Post-convention polls don't. Alaska, unsurprisingly, is McCain-Palin +27. Montana is McCain +11, North Dakota McCain +14, South Dakota +17. More importantly, Minnesota is just Obama +1, Wisconsin Obama +3, Washington Obama +4, Oregon Obama +7.

It would seem that indeed Nevada and New Mexico might will be toss-ups.

Quote:

The western odd ducks. Nevada is McCain +2. New Mexico, in a shift from pre-convention polls, is McCain +2 (but that's only one poll). These states were seriously contested in 2000 and 2004 and look to be again in 2008.

No major surprised in the rest - McCain will carry the south, and Obama wil take the Northeast. Though the numbers in New Hampshire and New York (poll numbers in New York all over the place - some with double diget Obama leads, some with McCain within 5), are better than I expected for McCain in general.

Bugs · 18-09-2008, 12:30 AM

Ok, so McCain got a bigger bounce but will we see more swings?

National Journal Online - Are We Due For Another Momentum Shift?

Same, same as above - McCain gets a bounce.

Quote:

It has been almost two weeks since the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. It's now clear that while Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois got a bounce out of the Democratic gathering in Denver, Sen. John McCain of Arizona -- or maybe I should say his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- got a bigger one out of the GOP event in St. Paul, Minn.

Polls seem to show that the bounces have settled to a point where the race is very close. Partisans are galvanized on both sides, with a narrow slice of largely independent undecided voters in the middle.

Indeed what's next?

Quote:

The question now is, what's next? This is an obviously subjective judgment, but there seems to be a tonal shift in the national conversation over the last few days compared to early last week.

Will be interesting to see how the the situation in the financial markets will play out politically.

Quote:

But now the collapse of venerable financial institutions might well dominate public attention in mid-September. While relatively few are immediately affected by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the fire sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America, the reverberations that such economic calamities cause are likely coming soon.

The more poor economic news I think the better for Obama, but as long as things like what recently happened in Yemen happen folks will not take there focus completely off of the national security issue.

Quote:

In addition, consumer confidence is further eroded, buyers are spooked, business expansion and increased hiring decisions are shelved, and the cycle continues its spiral downward.

While managing the economy is not exactly Obama's strong suit, it does pull the focus even further away from national security, McCain's strength. It would seem a better bet that this jump ball would be more likely go toward the team that hasn't been in power, and the edge would go to Obama.

Bugs · 18-09-2008, 10:12 AM

Obama is back in the lead.

Gallup - Obama 47, McCain 45:
Gallup Daily: Election 2008

CBS: Obama 48, McCain 43:
Poll: Obama Retakes Lead Over McCain, CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Democrat With 5 Point Advantage; Voters Express Concerns About GOP V.P. Pick Sarah Palin - CBS News

This is one of the first polls I have seen where Obama has maintained the same lead with likely voters as well.

Quote:

In the new poll, the gap among likely voters is the same as it is among registered voters: Obama leads among those seen as likely to go to the polls in November 49 percent to 44 percent.

Norton · 18-09-2008, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

Obama is back in the lead.

Both campaigns are scrambling to retool message for the crisis of the day. The economy!!

I am again reminded every election always ends up the same.

It's the economy stupid!!!

McCain will work hard to distance himself from GWB economic policy.

Obama will redouble his effort in portraying McCain's economic policy as more of the same as GWB's.

Given the severity of the economic situation, this will be the issue that dominates the headlines and will tip the election in favor of the candidate that has the most convincing story.

I don't believe either candidate has the "answer" but the perception the economy is attributable to Republican "mismanagement" will give Obama the edge.

GooMaiRoo · 18-09-2008, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

What's up with Rasmussen Reports? As of late most of their state-by-state polls have been conducted in combination with FOX News.

Try realclearpolitics.com, it has lots of polls and articles from the mainstream political spectrum. The link below shows Obama squeeking by in the electoral college by taking just 3 more states than Kerry did (N.Mexico, Colorado and Iowa). If it's close, I think those are the 3 states to look at, with Colorado deciding the whole thing. But if the economy turns to sh*t , Obama may win handily. One reason he's jumped ahead this week is the chaos in the financial markets.

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

GooMaiRoo · 18-09-2008, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norton

I am again reminded every election always ends up the same. It's the economy stupid!!! McCain will work hard to distance himself from GWB economic policy.

I heard on CNN that McCain is completely avoiding the words 'Bush' and 'Republican' in his latest speeches. To distance himself from his own party and president at this late point in his long career as a Washington insider borders on surreal.

McCain advisor (former Senator) Phil Graham was a major player in deregulating the finance industry. He is a major reason that credit default swaps are unregulated and wrecking havoc on the US economy
Foreclosure Phil

Bugs · 18-09-2008, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by floorpotato

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

What's up with Rasmussen Reports? As of late most of their state-by-state polls have been conducted in combination with FOX News.

Try realclearpolitics.com, it has lots of polls and articles from the mainstream political spectrum. The link below shows Obama squeeking by in the electoral college by taking just 3 more states than Kerry did (N.Mexico, Colorado and Iowa). If it's close, I think those are the 3 states to look at, with Colorado deciding the whole thing. But if the economy turns to sh*t , Obama may win handily. One reason he's jumped ahead this week is the chaos in the financial markets.

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

I also take a look at RealClearPolitics.com but they are really a poll of polls. And I like to take a look at each of the polls and the data of the poll - what questions where asked, what the break down appears to be (young/old, red/blue, white/black, male/female). You can see on the RCP site that many of the recent state polls done by Rassmussen have been FOX New/Rassmusen polls. But not all of their recent state polls have been.

Rassmussen is suppose to be an independent polling place. They won't even do paid polling for anyone because they say they want to maintain their independent status. That is why I question them partnering with FOX on any poll.

Milkman · 18-09-2008, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Norton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

Obama is back in the lead.

Both campaigns are scrambling to retool message for the crisis of the day. The economy!!

I am again reminded every election always ends up the same.

It's the economy stupid!!!

McCain will work hard to distance himself from GWB economic policy.

Obama will redouble his effort in portraying McCain's economic policy as more of the same as GWB's.

You hit the nail on the head.

Also, blame and point fingers, and then offer a solution that will help.

(Even though the next government won't have much impact on the current state of economic affairs, IMO.)

Jet Gorgon · 18-09-2008, 01:30 PM

Neither candidates have a solution. Just like the Fed, the Treasury, the Bush admin and the Congress don't.

Norton · 18-09-2008, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bugs

I also take a look at RealClearPolitics.com but they are really a poll of polls.

I always start with real politics. If I want to see individual polls, simply click on the polls listed. Saves a lot of bookmarks.

Norton · 18-09-2008, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

Neither candidates have a solution. Just like the Fed, the Treasury, the Bush admin and the Congress don't.

Agree. Further, a President taking too much credit for or too much blame for economy is misplaced. The economy cannot be completely controlled by government nor should it be. Think it's more a function of a particular President being in office at the right time or the wrong time.

Economic policy (balanced budget, oversight, etc.) of an administration certainly effect the economy but consequence of a given policy seldom are reflected in the time frame of any administration.

Milkman · 18-09-2008, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

Neither candidates have a solution. Just like the Fed, the Treasury, the Bush admin and the Congress don't.

Totally agree.

Very foolish and silly that some are already playing the "point the finger and blame" game while trying to tell the public that their own plan "can help."

DJIA to 8,000?

It's not that far. I'd put cash into the markets at 8,000.

Jet Gorgon · 18-09-2008, 02:00 PM

Ya, and Greenspan is rearing his head. *groan* Everyone wanted the easy ride, not only bankers but welfare recipient zero-down wannabe homeowners, too. What's the fix? Dunno. China is licking its lips.

Norton · 18-09-2008, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

China is licking its lips.

More like licking it's wounds. Shanghai exchange down from 2915 to 1932 in one month.

britmaveric · 18-09-2008, 08:33 PM

Great buying opportunities - most excellent!!!

16-09-2008, 01:28 PM	#1842 (permalink)
Bugs Elite Member Last Online: 09-05-2009 09:11 PM Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: At home Posts: 1,311	What's up with Rasmussen Reports? As of late most of their state-by-state polls have been conducted in combination with FOX News. If Rasmussen wants to be considered an independent source they should certainly stay away from partnering with FOX News. Yesterday they released state polls from Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virgina - all were joint polls with FOX News. __________________ "Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it, you'd have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, it takes religion" - Steven Weinberg

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16-09-2008, 01:47 PM	#1843 (permalink)
Texpat ฝรั่งพูดมาก Last Online: 27-10-2009 11:55 PM Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Nong Khai Posts: 12,491	^^ Cheers for that link Bugs. I'm subscribed to the US Embassy e-mail news here and they're usually good about sending out stuff like this. I would expect one soon. Maybe I'll go do my weekly e-mail check.

17-09-2008, 11:37 PM	#1845 (permalink)
Bugs Elite Member Last Online: 09-05-2009 09:11 PM Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: At home Posts: 1,311	Not sure why they partnered up with FOX on those but the two latest Rassmussen Reports state polls where not done with FOX, they were Oregon and Wisconsin. Both with Obama in the lead but McCain has closed the gap in Wisconsin from a double digit (11) lead to within four: Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. Oregon - not much of a change - Obama gained a point - now up by 10: Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. Also good new for Obama - the Gallup poll has the race now with a single point lead for McCain: Gallup Daily: Election 2008 Latest AP (with GFK) has McCain up by four: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK...ings_final.pdf Latest ARG has McCain up by three: American Research Group ARG also has some state polls included some of the state findings that I thought were interesting: Colorado - McCain is up by 2 - this looks to be a toss-up state all the way to the end. Illinois - Obama up by only 6 - I would expect Obama to carry Illinois by double digits New Mexico - Obama by 6 - more than I expected - even though most seem to feel New Mexico will go down to the wire. Ohio - McCain up by 6 - I think McCain will lock up Ohio with little problem come Nov WV - McCain up by only 4 - I think McCain will win WV by double digits - and yes I think it will be mainly because of race. All the states seem to indicate that less than 10% of voters stil remain undecided.

18-09-2008, 01:30 PM	#1854 (permalink)
Jet Gorgon Jihad Barbie Last Online: Yesterday 11:18 PM Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Near Libbies Posts: 12,428	Neither candidates have a solution. Just like the Fed, the Treasury, the Bush admin and the Congress don't.

18-09-2008, 02:00 PM	#1858 (permalink)
Jet Gorgon Jihad Barbie Last Online: Yesterday 11:18 PM Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Near Libbies Posts: 12,428	Ya, and Greenspan is rearing his head. groan Everyone wanted the easy ride, not only bankers but welfare recipient zero-down wannabe homeowners, too. What's the fix? Dunno. China is licking its lips.

18-09-2008, 08:33 PM	#1860 (permalink)
britmaveric nid aur yw popeth melyn Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 3,921	Great buying opportunities - most excellent!!!

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