The Thailand expat forum for Travel, Lifestyle and Fun.

raycarey

gee, i wonder how trump wasn't aware of the limits. couldn't be that he just wanted to get his name in the paper.
no.
not trump.
never.

rupert murdoch's boston herald.

Bugs

Yea, I'm sure that was Trumps plan all along. That's why they refused to comment on the issue. Because they were looking for more press.


Yea, because the poll numbers really have not been flat lately for Obama. It's all lies presented by the Murdoch press machine to fake out the US population. Really Obama is leading in the polls, he gained 5 points on the Biden selection, and has really gained 2-3 points every day of the convention.

Lies, bloody lies, those nasty Murdoch lackies think the American will believe anything.

__________________
"Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it, you'd have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, it takes religion" - Steven Weinberg

raycarey

since some of your boys are so impressed by daily tracking polls, chew on this....
Obama bounce: From tied up to 8 points - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

Norton

The President is selected by the number of electoral votes they receive. The campaigns will focus on getting electoral votes. 270 are needed to win.

Currently state by state polling shows, Obama has 226 where he is expected to win and McCain 189. 123 are up for grabs in 11 states. McCain will have to pick up 81 and Obama 44 to win. Both campaigns will focus time and effort in the states they feel are most likely to bring them the electoral votes to win.

Polls which indicate a national average are interesting but it's the state by state polls which indicate which candidate is leading.

Here's one such poll, the CNN electoral vote polling. Other's may differ but from what I have seen not by much.

CNN's Electoral Map: Who's ahead - CNN.com

__________________
Eat right, exercise daily, live clean, die anyway.

Bugs

Indeed good news for the Blue team, it looks like they are finally getting a convention bounce. Will be interesting to see how long the bounce lasts, if they can grow it, or if it comes bounding back toward McCain at the end of the red team pow-wow.

Obama also seems to have gotten a convention bounce in the Rasmussen polls as well.


Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Some interesting points from the Rasmussen Site:

Good news for the blue team, they are doing better than Kerry did on '04.

Might be less right now, but time will tell if he can grow it. But the red team should eat into this with their convention - maybe not?

Five point jump over two days, only three point jump compared to a week ago. To me this shows how weak the blue team convention was in the first couple of days, but also how strongly they finished (ie the more they banged on Bush, and tried to tie McCain to Bush the better it worked for them).

^,^^,^^^ convention helps Obama to shore up blue team support, and improve his image all around. Will be interesting to see if the red team can something similar in their convention.

This no doubt is a result of the blue team banging on in the last couple of days of the convention, banging Bush and tieing McCain to Bush - which is whay they will need to continue to do to win come Nov. The down side for the blue team is that now the red team will get the media coverage, and the chance to repair the damage.

Bugs

Indeed, in a close race, the key will be who fights the best electoral fight. Obama has the money to fight a wider battle. For McCain to win his team needs to identify where they have the best shot at making gains and spending money wisely in those areas.

Here is the Rasmussen Electoral Update. In Rasmussen daily tracking Obama got the much anticipated convention bounce, and Obama still has the edge in the electoral race. But the state-by-state break down looks much more favorable for McCain than it ever has:
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Safe Red team - 62
Likely Red team - 121 (121 + 62 = 183)
Leans Red team - 64
Toss up - 27
Leans Blue team - 71
Likely Blue team - 50
Safe Blue team - 143 (50 + 143 = 193)

So Obama has lost 17 electoral votes, and McCain has gained 18 electoral votes. The Obama lead has shrunk from 45 to 10 - quite a move for McCain.

The details of where the gains/losses came from:

Swing state of Ohio inches closer to the red team.

NC moves into the red team camp.

Wisconsin inches away from the blue team.

Colorado also inches away from the blue team.


Oregon - yet another state inching away from the blue team.

SD - and another team that moves into the red team camp.

Not only were all the big moves good news for the red team, but all of the small moves were as well.

Tenn and LA move deeper into the red camp (LA surprises me, I think Obama has a shot with many of the southern states because of the relative high black populations. Tenn no big surprise to me, I expect them to be firmly in the red team column come Nov).

Blue team looses ground in Maine as well as Conn (much more likely that Maine could end up on the red team column come Nov than there is that Conn will.)

sabang

Politics is a strange game, and Polling even more fickle, or so it seems to me.

However, I think if we look at the Electoral college system, then barring some major ground shift Obama looks the very firm favourite. The GOP has to persuade the large majority of the swing states to win this election- the Dem's only about one third. Texas excepted, the vast majority of the larger states are historically much more receptive to the Dem's message.

__________________
To err is human. To blame someone else is politics.

Norton

In these 12 or 13 states are where the battles will take place. McCains VP choice may well be just enough to tip the western states into the GOP column. The Dems must focus on the "rust belt" states where they are currently behind.

We have all been subjected to nearly two years of what is a by any measure a ridiculously long drawn out political process. The battle will start in earnest when the GOP convention ends. Based on lessons learned in their primaries both parties are aware of their strengths and weaknesses. All they have to do now is amplify their strengths and minimize their weaknesses in a sprint of less than two months. Two years of training/preparation and now a two month sprint race.

Only in America!

sabang

H'mm, I don't think theres that much empathy between the western states and remote Alaska.

I think Palin will be a good spokesperson and campaigner for the cause though. The inevitable questions will remain about her experience- and one emerging issue, that I don't know the importance of, is that whilst Palin has been a capable reformer, and I believe a good Governor of Alaska, her tenure has also been highly divisive. She has many enemies in the long standing GOP party machine there.

Norton

Most western "battleground" states are populated by what would best be characterized as "outdoors" small town folks. She may well be viewed as "one of us". Being one of us does play into how folks vote.

Bugs

The might be a dozen or so states that could go either way right now, but I think it will boil down to two states - Ohio and Michigan. I think McCain will get Florida, and Obama will get PA. If either of them can swing both Ohio and Michigan I think they'll win it all. If they split, then I think Virginia and Wisconsin will factor in to decide it.

Palin and her NRA position might help in some of the western states like Montana and North Dakota, maybe even in New Mexico. But I don't think it will help move states like Oregon or Washington into the McCain camp. And California might be geographically in the west, but politically I think it's in Europe.

sabang

^ California ain't in play- it's as Democrat as Texas is Republican. I agree that all west coastal states are Obamas.

Bugs

This is an interesting article on really about the office of the president and less about each of the candidates. Kind of outlining how the president really doesn’t have the power to be the end all be all of things based upon the constitution. The thing is the Bush has really pushed the envelope on this and has grown the power of the executive branch tremendously over the past eight year. The scary thing is that he has been allowed to do so.
MinnPost - Obama and McCain: Running for an office not in the Constitution

Quote:

The vision of president who is a combination "guardian angel, shaman and Supreme Warlord of the Earth" is so pervasive that Americans are reduced to weighing campaign rhetoric without the balance of context. Partisans will be praising, journalists will be reporting and pundits analyzing what Obama and McCain would do as president. Doing so, they miss the key question: What should a president do?

Quote:

The War on Terror, the Global Warming Crisis, the Health Care Crisis, the Energy Crisis, the Education Crisis all have resulted in expansion of federal and presidential authority, and still Americans expect the government and the president to do more.

Not me, the "more" that I want out of the goverment and the president to do is to get out of my way more.

Quote:

...the constitutional presidency was designed to stand against the popular will as often as not. The Constitution gives the president veto power to restrain Congress when it passes laws that overstep constitutional bounds. The modern presidency, on the other hand, has become the "tribune of the people," promising transformative action and demanding the power to carry it out. And Congress complies.

The "And Congress complies" bit is a big problem.

Quote:

In the everyday affairs, Congress also abdicates its constitutional obligations to the executive branch. It delegates authority and dodges responsibility. Congress delegates its legislative authority by authorizing unelected bureaucrats to create regulations for which individual congresspersons take no responsibility when they prove detrimental or unpopular. Congress delegates its control of the public purse to those same bureaucrats with similar results; individual congresspersons selectively criticize runaway spending without acknowledging that ultimately spending is constitutionally solely under their control.

When push comes to shove, push the blame onto someone else - welcome to politics in America today.

Quote:

"True political heroism rarely pounds its chest or pounds the pulpit, preaching rainbows and uplift, and promising to redeem the world through military force," he writes. "A truly heroic president is one who appreciates the virtues of restraint — who is bold enough to act when action is necessary, yet wise enough, humble enough to refuse powers he ought not have. That is the sort of presidency we need now more than ever. And we won't get that kind of presidency until we demand it."

Looks like we won't get it any time soon. One candidate is blamed for being the "preaching rainbows and uplift" bit, and the other is blamed for being the "promising to redeem the world through military force" bit.

Fundamentally there has been a long, relatively slow moving shift in the US towards more and more federal control - which translates to less and less, state/local control. Actually one of my main issues with national health care, is the "national" bit. I am generally not in favor of any new "national" programs, and truth be told had I been around when social security was pushed thru I probably would have been against it - since it is a national program.

All I want is for government to get the hell out of the way and let the America people make things happen on their own.

Jet Gorgon

Yep. Let businesses do biz without democratic constraints and taxes. Vote Republican.

attaboy

And to think back in 1999 California was a republican state.

panama hat

I'd say Obama will get Michigan . . . no idea about Ohio.

britmaveric