The Thailand expat forum for Travel, Lifestyle and Fun.

Jet Gorgon · 17-12-2007, 09:46 PM

^But they are long-term planners.

chinthee · 17-12-2007, 09:48 PM

^Honestly, I see a different sense of urgency these days. I do travel and do business there several times/yr and have done so for more than 20 years now. This is a completely new environment. I'm afraid there's no going back.

Jet Gorgon · 17-12-2007, 09:51 PM

^ OK, the folks are changing, but I still think govt policy is mega long term. Hence the buy-up of oil areas in Sudan, buildup of the army, cautious friendships with the west. They dump goods and say sorry and then dump more.

sabang · 17-12-2007, 10:04 PM

The Chinese are patient alright. They buy land thinking of the next generation.
Their patience will be tested however by the financial crisis that awaits them. I won't be surprised to see some riots.
Still, they'll get over it. Just growing pains really.

chinthee · 17-12-2007, 10:08 PM

I don't see it the way you people think. Yes, they have a history of patience. But I really believe those values are over. This huge population has a big appetite. Think of the USA x 4. That's the monster we're all facing...not including India.

God help us all.

sabang · 17-12-2007, 10:17 PM

They are also very impatient. Rampant speculators.

Tchiowa · 17-12-2007, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabang

They are also very impatient. Rampant speculators.

Is that why they smoke so damm much.

Gheez those fokers doing the poop squat everywhere smoking up a storm.

Butterfly · 18-12-2007, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

Well, everything is indeed going Bush's way these days? Tremendous economic growth, record low unemployment, a record 51 straight months in which jobs have been created. The housing fiasco is hardly a ripple and the surge is working ain't it? heh...

fucking christ Boon, you need to stop shooting that shit into your arms

Hootad Binky · 21-12-2007, 03:23 AM

This subprime thing has gone from reselling bad subprime debt from northern Missippi into a recession-starting, stck-tumbling, $2-trillion fiasco:

Quote:

Subprime Shocks, U.S. Bank Dividends, Trackers' Demise: Timshel

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Aftershocks from the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market this year are taking an increasing toll on companies worldwide.

In the U.K., banks' reluctance to make money available to each other following the subprime debacle helps explain why home prices fell 3.2 percent this month. This decline is the steepest since Rightmove Plc, Britain's most popular online real-estate site, started providing figures in 2002.

``Buyers face limited availability of mortgages at attractive rates'' because lenders depend largely on ``log- jammed'' money markets for funding, the Milton Keynes, England- based company wrote in a report yesterday.

U.K. homebuilding shares declined in response to the data. Their second-half losses are now more in line with those of their U.S. counterparts. The average drop for the half among six builders in the FTSE 350 Index is 27 percent, just one percentage point from the comparable figure for the industry's half-dozen worst performers in Standard & Poor's benchmark U.S. indexes.

Australia's Centro Properties Group fell even harder yesterday after disclosing that ``tightened credit conditions'' prevented the company from reaching agreement with its banks to refinance A$1.3 billion ($1.12 billion) of debt maturing in May.

Centro, which suspended dividends and said asset sales may be needed to pay down debt, plummeted 76 percent. Centro Retail Group, a real-estate investment trust that the Melbourne-based company manages, tumbled 40 percent.
Peripheral Victims

Companies based outside the U.S. have been part of the subprime mess, a byproduct of loans made to less-creditworthy borrowers, from the start. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, foreshadowed what was coming when its loan-loss provision in February exceeded analysts' forecasts by 20 percent.

What makes the latest setbacks more unsettling is that they have relatively little to do with the U.S. housing market. Among the biggest U.K. homebuilders, only Taylor Wimpey Plc does much business there, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Centro is a mall and shopping-center owner, not a residential builder.

The decline in the average asking price for U.K. homes has much to do with the local market as well. For starters, the Bank of England's base rate is 1.25 percentage points higher than the comparable U.S. benchmark, making loans more expensive.

Yet the U.S.-inspired withering of credit markets is clearly affecting the housing industry. The average price in London fell 6.8 percent, more than twice the national average. Thirty-two areas of the city had declines, the survey found.

Following Retailers

Any housing-related weakness in U.S. retail sales may hurt Centro, which spent $3.7 billion in April to buy New York-based New Plan Excel Realty Trust. The National Retail Federation, a Washington-based industry group, and other forecasters expect the slowest growth in holiday sales since 2002.

Retailing stocks have tumbled in the U.S. as well as the U.K. this year, so yesterday's plunge in Centro didn't come from nowhere. That said, it shows just how far and wide the subprime- related tremors are spreading.

Bloomberg.com: Opinion

Milkman · 21-12-2007, 03:55 AM

These losers deserve what they get.

I have no sympathy: the lenders were frauds, and the "buyers" ignorant.

Let it go.

Hootad Binky · 21-12-2007, 04:28 AM

That would be a nice option but this could trigger a major recession in the US (and eventual taxpayer bailouts in some form or other).

Quote:

US could be heading for recession

Last Updated: 12:05am BST 28/08/2007

Ex-Treasury Secretary Summers warns of risks 'greater than any since aftermath of 9/11', reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Larry Summers: 'It would be far too
premature to judge this crisis over'

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the United States may be heading into recession as the biggest victim to date of the sub-prime mortgage debacle was humiliatingly sold for a token sum in Germany.

Traders are braced for another week of turmoil after the near breakdown of America's $2,200bn (£1,100bn) market for commercial paper.

"It would be far too premature to judge this crisis over," Mr Summers said. "I would say the risks of recession are now greater than they've been any time since the period in the aftermath of 9/11."

In Germany, it emerged that the state-bank SachsenLB may have accumulated $80bn of exposure to risky assets through a set of Irish funds kept off balance sheet.
advertisement

The regional government of Saxony agreed yesterday to sell the East German bank - the biggest victim so far of the worldwide credit rout - for a token €300m (£204m) to the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg in Stuttgart (LBBW), ending a three-week saga that has revealed the extent of German involvement in the some of the most treacherous areas of US sub-prime debt.

Georg Milbrandt, prime minister of Saxony, said the sale of state-owned lender was the only viable option.

"Given the market turbulence and the pressures on the bank, it could not have gone on without a partner. We want to get our ship off the high waves and into a safe port," he said.
Sachsen LB, founded in 1992 after the fall of the Berlin Wall, was rescued two weeks ago in a state orchestrated bail-out. A consortium of banks agreed to provide a €17.3bn credit lifeline, but only on the understanding that it agreed to be sold to a stronger player.

It allegedly used no fewer than five Irish 'conduits' (off-balance sheet vehicles) to invest in collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and other high-risk instruments, according to German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The biggest losses stemmed from structured investment vehicles (SIVs) which involve using short-term credit to buy longer-term assets, creating a mismatch in maturities.

The rescue deal comes as investors waited to learn whether the US Federal Reserve would
succeed in stabilising the US commercial paper market, the latest - and biggest -domino to fall in the spreading contagion from sub-prime debt. Investors have suddenly lost trust in this form of debt, fearing it may be tainted by exposure to CDOs.

Stock markets rallied strongly late last week on the belief that the Federal Reserve would start to cut its key lending rate in September, and that the European Central Bank would refrain from further tightening. Goldman Sachs said any hint the banks may prove more hawkish could quickly dampen investor spirits again, warning it was too early to give "all clear" on equities.

Federal Reserve data shows that the outstanding stock of US commercial paper has fallen by $255bn over the last three weeks, a sign that borrowers have been unable to roll over huge amounts of debt. The fall is comparable to the sudden shrinkage that occurred at the onset of the dotcom bust, and may have the effect of draining liquidity.

The New York Fed issued a statement on Friday stressing that asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) would be accepted as collateral for loans to banks from the discount window. The move has helped trim the average yield slightly to 6.04pc, helping to calm a key part of the money market that lubricates the financial system.

Even so, the cost of this credit is still up roughly 80 basis points since late July - for those borrowers who can obtain it at all. Bill Gross, head of the US bond-giant PIMCO, said parts of the commercial paper industry were now so discredited that it may be impossible to revive them.

A string of Germany banks have run into trouble after taking leveraged bets on CDOs and the even more deadly 'synthetic' or derivative CDOs - bond-like securities that often contain slices of US mortgage debt.

The scale of carnage in Europe explains the series of emergency actions by ECB, which injected a further $85bn in liquidity through various mechanisms last week. IKB was the first German bank to crumble earlier this month, requiring an €8.1bn state-rescue just days after it denied any significant exposure to sub-prime debt.

US could be heading for recession - Telegraph

Texpat · 24-12-2007, 10:43 AM

Well, the markets are up, CEOs are getting record bonuses, and once again, I'm left wondering ...

Is this another media-created crisis?

I don't doubt that it's a big deal. But how big?

Seems all some are interested in these days is forecasting the end of the world. Anyone who has been in any market for more than a few days understands they go through cycles.

After 9-11 the alarmists claimed with great fear and trepidation, It will take decades to recover from the fallout of this tragedy! It took a few months.

And here we are again. Maybe I suffer from the Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome.

Maybe I should stop reading so much. Financial writers are among the worst in trying to put their personal bias into reporting. (politicos take the cake) They hedge everything. Read the stories above.

May cause major recession -- might not
May be tainted by exposure to CDOs --maybe not

It's Christmas Eve, maybe I'm just feeling hopeful.

Boon Mee · 25-01-2008, 07:06 AM

Well, folks, apologies for dragging this thread outa the bin but just had to tell y'all how, BDS is now, officially, out of control!

Anti-Bush Campaign Planned | World Latest | Guardian Unlimited

Eight & 1/2 million dollars on what?
These people have their respective heads up their respective asses or what?

Thormaturge · 25-01-2008, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texpat

Redondo beach, 3 miles south of LAX.

Know it well. My best friend from School/college emigrated to Torrance in the 1980's and I went over there a lot. Fond memories of the pier; there was some comedy club there in those days, and Del Amo mall.

chinthee · 30-01-2008, 01:54 AM

Quote:

By ALEX VEIGA, AP Business Writer Tue Jan 29, 10:34 AM ET

LOS ANGELES - Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, said Tuesday it swung to a loss in the fourth quarter due to rising loss provisions and impairment charges as more borrowers fell behind on mortgage payments. The earnings fell well short of Wall Street estimates.

Quote:

Countrywide has cut about 11,000 employees from its payrolls since July, the company said.

Countrywide posts $422 million 4Q loss - Yahoo! News

Texpat · 22-02-2008, 11:42 PM

By Edmund Andrews
International Herald Tribune
Feb 22, 2008

WASHINGTON: Prodded in part by some of the biggest banks in the nation, the Bush administration and Congress are considering costly new proposals for the government to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners whose mortgages are higher than the value of their houses.

Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody's Economy.com.

***
U.S. weighs rescue for homeowners in debt - International Herald Tribune

The second shoe falling? This pisses me off. I understand it may be necessary for the better good, but can't they levy an idiot tax on these greedy dumbasses for 20 or 30 years?

njdesi · 23-02-2008, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

China is watching and laughing.

Before, they were content to just sell to us and then reinvest in our Treasuries. It was a win win situation. The American consumer were able to consume above their means with cheaper Chinese goods and the Chinese were able to employ more of their population and retain their grip on power. Then that scumbag Greenspan decided to ignore all of the lessons from the tech bubble and start another credit bubble. The Bush team figured the reckoning wouldn't happen till they were long out of office, so they would let the good times roll. All of the swinging dicks in the finance industry always look to the next earnings report and knew that the Fed wouldn't let these hollowed institutions collapse (see mortgage freeze, dumping toxic loans on Fannie Mae).
Too bad everyone ignored a pesky thing called the law of supply and demand. I could go into a long explanation of median salary vs rent vs housing price statistics, but the bottom line is that you can't bullshit your way out of the law of supply and demand. Eventually things will return to their correct market price. These mortgage freezes just delay the inevitable. Look up how long it took Japan to recover from its property bubble in the early 90s.
And there are other unintended consequences too. One of the US' last remaining assets, its relatively transparent financial markets reputation, has been damaged. China's sovereign wealth fund, seeing a cheap dollar and the incompetence of American management, will start to directly own America. We see it already happening when they bought a 10% stake in Citigroup. Expect the trend to continue. If we can't manage our economy, the Chinese will. And the English. And the Germans. With our dollar so cheap, it's a firesale!

floorpotato · 23-02-2008, 04:34 PM

^^ Yep, Greenspan got lots of credit for creating his bubble economy, but he isn't around for the house of cards to collapse. It's interesting that Paul Volcker, the last fiscal conservative to head the Federal Reserve, has endorsed Obama.

Boon Mee · 02-03-2008, 08:59 PM

25-01-2008, 07:06 AM	#53 (permalink)
Boon Mee Senior Member Last Online: Yesterday 06:47 PM Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 9,820	Well, folks, apologies for dragging this thread outa the bin but just had to tell y'all how, BDS is now, officially, out of control! Anti-Bush Campaign Planned \| World Latest \| Guardian Unlimited Eight & 1/2 million dollars on what? These people have their respective heads up their respective asses or what? __________________ ผมเป็นคนบ้านนอก

23-02-2008, 04:34 PM	#58 (permalink)
floorpotato Sadao Last Online: 30-11-2008 08:02 PM Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 710	^^ Yep, Greenspan got lots of credit for creating his bubble economy, but he isn't around for the house of cards to collapse. It's interesting that Paul Volcker, the last fiscal conservative to head the Federal Reserve, has endorsed Obama. Last edited by floorpotato : 23-02-2008 at 04:40 PM.

17-12-2007, 09:46 PM	#41 (permalink)
Jet Gorgon What the Dormouse Said Last Online: Today 07:53 AM Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Rabbit Hole Posts: 7,501	^But they are long-term planners.

17-12-2007, 09:48 PM	#42 (permalink)
chinthee Sundance is my bff Last Online: 23-09-2008 07:21 AM Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 6,033	^Honestly, I see a different sense of urgency these days. I do travel and do business there several times/yr and have done so for more than 20 years now. This is a completely new environment. I'm afraid there's no going back.

17-12-2007, 09:51 PM	#43 (permalink)
Jet Gorgon What the Dormouse Said Last Online: Today 07:53 AM Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Rabbit Hole Posts: 7,501	^ OK, the folks are changing, but I still think govt policy is mega long term. Hence the buy-up of oil areas in Sudan, buildup of the army, cautious friendships with the west. They dump goods and say sorry and then dump more.

17-12-2007, 10:04 PM	#44 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 08:21 AM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: east of Pattaya Posts: 8,441	The Chinese are patient alright. They buy land thinking of the next generation. Their patience will be tested however by the financial crisis that awaits them. I won't be surprised to see some riots. Still, they'll get over it. Just growing pains really.

17-12-2007, 10:08 PM	#45 (permalink)
chinthee Sundance is my bff Last Online: 23-09-2008 07:21 AM Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 6,033	I don't see it the way you people think. Yes, they have a history of patience. But I really believe those values are over. This huge population has a big appetite. Think of the USA x 4. That's the monster we're all facing...not including India. God help us all.

17-12-2007, 10:17 PM	#46 (permalink)
sabang Watching the Wheels Last Online: Today 08:21 AM Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: east of Pattaya Posts: 8,441	They are also very impatient. Rampant speculators.

21-12-2007, 03:55 AM	#50 (permalink)
Milkman Gone Off Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: shelf Posts: 9,543	These losers deserve what they get. I have no sympathy: the lenders were frauds, and the "buyers" ignorant. Let it go.

24-12-2007, 10:43 AM	#52 (permalink)
Texpat ฝรั่งพูดมาก Last Online: Today 08:22 AM Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Nong Khai Posts: 9,773	Well, the markets are up, CEOs are getting record bonuses, and once again, I'm left wondering ... Is this another media-created *crisis? I don't doubt that it's a big deal. But how big? Seems all some are interested in these days is forecasting the end of the world. Anyone who has been in any market for more than a few days understands they go through cycles. After 9-11 the alarmists claimed with great fear and trepidation, It will take decades to recover from the fallout of this tragedy! It took a few months. And here we are again. Maybe I suffer from the Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome. Maybe I should stop reading so much. Financial writers are among the worst in trying to put their personal bias into reporting. (politicos take the cake) They hedge everything. Read the stories above. May* cause major recession -- might not May be tainted by exposure to CDOs --maybe not It's Christmas Eve, maybe I'm just feeling hopeful.

22-02-2008, 11:42 PM	#56 (permalink)
Texpat ฝรั่งพูดมาก Last Online: Today 08:22 AM Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Nong Khai Posts: 9,773	By Edmund Andrews International Herald Tribune Feb 22, 2008 WASHINGTON: Prodded in part by some of the biggest banks in the nation, the Bush administration and Congress are considering costly new proposals for the government to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners whose mortgages are higher than the value of their houses. Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody's Economy.com. *** U.S. weighs rescue for homeowners in debt - International Herald Tribune The second shoe falling? This pisses me off. I understand it may be necessary for the better good, but can't they levy an idiot tax on these greedy dumbasses for 20 or 30 years?

02-03-2008, 08:59 PM	#59 (permalink)
Boon Mee Senior Member Last Online: Yesterday 06:47 PM Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 9,820