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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Interesting moment for the US Stock/Share Market



    A glass ceiling for the DOW?




    Dow Jones DJI Index approaches it's all time high.

    ---



    Yet the Bond Curve inverted recently, a prime indicator that a recession is possible, typically in the next 12 - 18 months.

    Experts are split on which yield curve is the most reliable, but the Fed prefers looking at the curve between the 10-year and three-month Treasuries, which on Friday turned negative, to minus 0.196 percentage points.

    While a yield curve inversion has preceded recent recessions, it doesn’t happen immediately, and the lead time has been very inconsistent. Historically, a recession can come anywhere from one to two years after the curve flips upside-down, and the stock market usually continues to gain from the day of the inversion until its cycle peak.

    So we’ve got more time to watch.

    Personally, I believe that there are still some good gains to be made, as history has also indicated that Markets still have significant gain potential before recessions.

    For the moment, I'm fully invested.

    “Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago”

    .

  2. #2
    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    everybody is stroking themselves over the idea that china has not slowed down

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Wall Street: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, driven by strong corporate earnings



    Climbing to new records

    In US markets, the Dow Jones index added 145 points, up 0.6 per cent, to 26,656 — about 1 per cent away from regaining its record closing figure.
    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed 0.9 per cent higher at 2,934, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.3 per cent to 8,121 — their highest ever levels.\


    The S&P has risen 17 per cent so far this year, with help from a dovish Federal Reserve and hopes of a US-China trade resolution, as well as the upbeat start to the first-quarter earnings season.


    Twitter shares surged 16 per cent after the social media company reported quarterly revenue that beat market expectations.
    Its executives said it was a result of weeding out spam, fake accounts and abusive posts, while having better targeted advertising.
    On average, profits of S&P 500 companies are still expected to decline 1.3 per cent in the first quarter, in what analysts say could be the first earnings contraction since 2016.


    Hasbro shares rose 14.2 per cent after the toymaker reported a surprise quarterly profit.

    Coca-Cola rose 1.8 per cent after its quarterly sales beat estimates, helped in part by strong demand for Coke Zero.
    Procter & Gamble Co fell 2.7 per cent, and was the biggest drag on the market after reporting a decline in its third-quarter operating margin.


    Here
    Attached Images Attached Images

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat cyrille's Avatar
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    So it might go up.

    Or down.

    Or stay the same.

  5. #5
    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    The S&P has risen 17 per cent so far this year, with help from a dovish Federal Reserve and hopes of a US-China trade resolution, as well as the upbeat start to the first-quarter earnings season.
    and wetness in the fork over the idea of negative interest rates

    blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-interest-rates-work/

    Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut in policy rates. If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond.

    To get around this problem, a recent IMF staff study shows how central banks can set up a system that would make deeply negative interest rates a feasible option.

  6. #6
    lom
    lom is offline
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    the idea of negative interest rates
    Having to pay for the money you deposit with them and getting paid for borrowing from them. How could that go wrong..

  7. #7
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    Every recession has followed an inverted yield curve. But every inverted yield curve has not been followed by a recession.

    It's not that reliable an indicator.

  8. #8
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    Historically these two are in sync with each other.

    One or both are out of sync, hedge or gamble accordingly.



    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...s-are-tumbling

  9. #9
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    As Bloomberg puts it, the fundamentals are fine, but this yield curve nonsense gets people behaving in a manner which ends up creating a recession when there is no need for one.

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