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  1. #51
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    The trick is to buy a fixed price each month over a long period. These events are then mere ripples on the growth to riches pond.

    It is only a loss if you sell now.; buy and wait and all will end up okay, unless we have a 1920's style crash that lasts a decade...

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    ripples on the growth to riches
    HODL!!!

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The trick is to buy a fixed price each month over a long period. These events are then mere ripples on the growth to riches pond.

    It is only a loss if you sell now.; buy and wait and all will end up okay, unless we have a 1920's style crash that lasts a decade...
    Only trouble with that is all the extra fees you end up paying by investing every month as opposed to a lump sum now and again.

  4. #54
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Friday (USA time) intraday chart



    Finished near it's intraday high and that should bode well for trading on Monday.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    Started to short the SP 500,
    You did?

    Or, the hedge funds?

    When the big Hedge Funds start shorting that's often the signal.

  6. #56
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    ^^
    So who is "investing" in the last 30 minutes, you? Or the hidden hand.

  7. #57
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Seat Belts Fastened: Volatility Ahead

    For 15 months, from the 2016 election of President Donald Trump until recently, the stock market was a smooth, one-way trade: up 34%, with nary a significant pullback. A turn on the Brooklyn Cyclone it was not.


    “Investors were in love with the economy, earnings growth, and the tax bill,” says Bob Doll, the chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. “It was a beautiful thing.”


    That beautiful ride is now over.


    A fast and vertiginous drop in February points to a material change in investor psychology, to cautious from enthusiastic. Where previously rising interest rates were acceptable because of strong global growth, now investors are focused on the potential inflationary threat from such growth.


    The underlying concern is that rising prices could cause the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy faster than the market is anticipating. There is also a new unknown factor: Fed chair Jerome Powell, who was sworn in Feb. 5.

    MORE. https://www.barrons.com/articles/sea...am=top-stories

  8. #58
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    ^ Thanks for that.

    ---

    Even after a week of tumult, it is difficult to pin down the causes apart from trotting out the usual, "stocks were were overvalued,
    so what else would you expect?"

    Technical analysts will tell you buyers moved in and supported the market when the S&P500 dipped down to its so-called
    "200-day moving average" line.

    * They will also tell you, if it (S&P500) breaks through that level of support, the "200-day moving average" line ... watch out there
    is a fair drop to next level of supposed support. *
    (That's my concern)


    "I don't see any reason to think that we're setting a pattern for next week or the rest of the year," said Rob Stein,
    a Chicago-based fund manager.

    "The only pattern we're setting is more volatility."

    The week wiped out all the gains Wall Street made so far this year and then some, although the key indices are still
    offering double-digit returns over the past 12 months.
    Perspective is everything ... it's the difference between going through an ordeal or going through an adventure..

  9. #59
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    ^ Following on from above ...

    Given the markets' volatility as measured by the VIX index (aka the Fear Index) was near historic lows just before the
    capitulation, it is fair to say market complacency was near historic highs too.


    "The severity of the falls globally with markets having got oversold and the VIX volatility index pushing up to levels
    often associated with market bottoms suggest we may have already seen the worst," AMP Capital's Shane Oliver said.


    However the massive unwinding of the bets made via synthetically created exchange traded products linked to the
    VIX index could well spell some more white-knuckled plunges.


    The VIX Index tracks the price of options on the S&P500 index, giving the market a "feel" for what is going to
    happen in the 30 days.


    The higher the reading, the higher the volatility, the greater the fear building up — in short, a signal to bail out.


    But where it gets scary ... read below.

  10. #60
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    ^ ^^ Following on from above ...

    How the inverse VIX became a swan dive

    All very interesting, but a decade or so ago Wall Street's Masters of the Universe decided what
    the VIX Index sorely lacked was a way to bet on it.

    So the financial engineers invented the "inverse VIX", or XIV exchange traded products (ETPs), to bet on volatility.

    Quite simply, if the VIX fell, the XIV would rise. For a long time it was a one-way bet.
    A bit like the old Credit Default Swaps so popular before the GFC.

    Indeed what could go wrong?

    The market had gained 50 per cent in two years, sending VIX to historic lows as the S&P500 kept notching historic highs.

    Even then, that was not enough.
    Highly geared XIV ETPs were the next generation of weapons to accelerate returns by two or three times, depending on your
    appetite for risk.

    Once again, a bit like the old highly-geared Credit Default Swaps so popular before the GFC.

    Of course, the highly-geared XIV products and there were a number of them like the Credit Suisse backed VelocityShares XIV would
    double and treble losses if things came unstuck, which duly happened last week.

    A bit like well, a picture is beginning to emerge.

    The VIX missed the warning signs and investors in XIV soon learnt a brutal lesson about one-way bets and complacency.

    The market swooned, the VIX surged, the XIV plummeted. Losses were heading towards 90 per cent, while trading in the
    biggest XIV ETPs were frozen. Nasty.


    VIX vs XIV vs DJIA Bets that the VIX volatility index would stay low and Dow Jones wouldn't fall were painfully wrong for XIV investors


    Even more nasty is the size of the problem.

    On Bloomberg's analysis, funds ploughed in XIV products have gone from "zilch" a decade ago to $US1.5 trillion at the time of last week's "problems". Ouch.

    While Wall Street's stumble is probably not much more than profit taking for traditional "long-only" equity investors, it is a lot more brutal for geared up XIV players.

    Many are said to face being wiped out.

    It is a case where the investment banks' marketing of "spreading the risk" is in fact "intensifying the the risk".
    "Quite why some thought already record low volatility would go even lower beats me and it all looks like another case of financial engineering
    gone wrong, but as Warren Buffett has said, 'When the tide goes out you get to see who was swimming naked'," Dr Oliver said.
    It may also be a factor in why the Australian ASX did not do its usual trick of falling harder and faster than Wall Street in times of distress.

    Balance of the article


    as Warren Buffett has said, 'When the tide goes out you get to see who was swimming naked'

  11. #61
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    volatility is good, and yes you can't rely only on VIX, it's an indicator and it gets it wrong many times, so to rely solely on it is quite foolish

    don't blame the indicator, blame the fools that only swear by it,

    will wait late Monday for another profitable short of DOW

  12. #62
    peckerwood SKkin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    The week wiped out all the gains Wall Street made so far this year
    A lot of those gains were fueled by corporate buybacks...companies buying back their own stock shares. Which used to be illegal.

    Trump’s big buyback bamboozle

    https://www.salon.com/2018/02/10/tru...oozle_partner/

    from that, this jumped out at me:

    Big investors also love buybacks because they increase the value of their stock portfolios. Now that the richest 10 percent of Americans own 84 percent of all shares of stock (up from 77 percent at the turn of the century), this means even more wealth at the top.
    So what about stock market gains make the common man feel all warm and fuzzy...if he really has no stake in the game? The rise of an index of 30 "industrial" stocks is supposed to make John Q Public think everything is A-ok?

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by SKkin View Post
    Which used to be illegal.
    interesting, really ? when was that ? Buybacks have been play for at least 30 years, so are you referring to some obscure time before 1930s or 1950s ?

  14. #64
    peckerwood SKkin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    interesting, really ? when was that ? Buybacks have been play for at least 30 years, so are you referring to some obscure time before 1930s or 1950s ?
    Another gift from Ronnie Raygun's time...

    For most of the 20th century, stock buybacks were deemed illegal because they were thought to be a form of stock market manipulation. But since 1982, when they were essentially legalized by the SEC, buybacks have become perhaps the most popular financial engineering tool in the C-Suite tool shed. And it’s obvious why Wall Street loves them: Buying back company stock can inflate a company’s share price and boost its earnings per share — metrics that often guide lucrative executive bonuses.
    from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin/.../#4b58d5326b1e

  15. #65
    Fresh Seaman CaptainNemo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The trick is to buy a fixed price each month over a long period. These events are then mere ripples on the growth to riches pond.

    It is only a loss if you sell now.; buy and wait and all will end up okay, unless we have a 1920's style crash that lasts a decade...
    A lot of hysteria over very little. Surely a correction is a change of at least 10%, this "wobble" was something like 4% and not quite staying down for long enough to matter.

    No, The Stock Market Isn't Crashing. But The Dow Is in Correction Territory

    shed 4% or 1,032 points

    a correction—technically, a drop of about 10%—

    people were positioned for low volatility, low interest rates and low inflation,”


    Stock Market Isn't Crashing. Though the Dow, S&P Are in a Correction | Fortune

    source: Stock Trader's Almanac 2018
    By Jeffrey A. Hirsch (p84)



    Meanwhile bitcoin is heading for the toilet as predicted as a regulation wall fast approaches this speeding joyride.
    Having said all that, there are other causes for concern over the summer.

    We'll see up to a 15 percent correction in 2018, says Julius Baer CEO

    expect a price drop of up to 15 percent this year,

    "there are some political risks and threats from protectionism."



    the combination of highly overvalued markets and historically low volatility is simply not sustainable.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/up-t...-baer-ceo.html



    Bull Market 2017: 3 Signs of a Looming Economic Downturn | Money

    There is pressure for interest rates to go up; there is cause for volatilty (fanned by left-wing ideologues/media); inflation... kind of linked to interest rates; but debt levels are scary.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1F2i0rYMj8

    we are all figments of our own imagination.

  16. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by buriramboy View Post
    Only trouble with that is all the extra fees you end up paying by investing every month as opposed to a lump sum now and again.
    The fees really depend on the way you buy your stocks. If you buy them monthly through a stock purchase plan then, as long as you only change amount or pause for a few months, the fees are negligible relative to the lower risk in a volatile environment. Brexit and Trump are good examples of ways to achieve a volatile environment...

  17. #67
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    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ijRA

    The above link is for the St. Louis Federal Banks graph of US Commercial Bank Loans. Running for the past year consistently at 80 to 60 Billion US$ per week. As of last wednesday it dropped from 60 Billion US$ to 13 Billion US$ per week straight down.

    Is this something of a worry?
    Last edited by OhOh; 12-02-2018 at 12:57 AM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  18. #68
    peckerwood SKkin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grampa View Post
    hedge funds
    Good luck muppets...


  19. #69
    Thailand Expat Mr Earl's Avatar
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    ^ very crooked game..

  20. #70
    peckerwood SKkin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Earl View Post
    very crooked game..
    It's good to be in the club...

    Insider trading has been rife on Wall Street, academics conclude
    https://www.economist.com/news/finan...crisis-another

    Large institutions can be both beneficiaries and victims of this sort of information leakage. But in general they are net gainers. The real losers, the papers conclude, are retail customers and smaller asset managers. Common to all the papers is the recognition that the public markets are, as conspiracy theorists have long argued, not truly public at all. Changing the law to fix that may not even be feasible. But at least, in large-scale data-crunching, a new type of corporate sleuth is on the case.
    The three study papers:

    "Political connections and the informativeness of insider trades" by Alan D. Jagolinzer, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge; David F. Larcker, Graduate School of Business, Rock Center for Corporate Governance, Stanford University; Gaizka Ormazabal, IESE Business School, University of Navarra; Daniel J. Taylor, the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University, Working Paper No. 222.

    "Brokers and order flow leakage: evidence from fire sales" by Andrea Barbon, Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Augustin Landler. National Bureau of Economist Research, Working Paper 24089, December, 2017

    "The Relevance of Broker Networks for Information Diffusion in the Stock Market" by Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Amir Kermani and Carlo Summavilla. NBER Working Paper, No 23522, June, 2017.

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Earl View Post
    ^ very crooked game..
    Yes. And you honestly believe the same is not being done with Bitcoin and other crypto?

  22. #72
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourDaddy View Post
    And you honestly believe the same is not being done with Bitcoin and other crypto?
    ...and, of course, commodities, real estate and all other asset classes...hold on while I reshape this tin foil...

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...and, of course, commodities, real estate and all other asset classes...hold on while I reshape this tin foil...
    Why you need a tinfoil hat for?

    There is no conspiracy and it's not illegal. It's about making money at the expense of greater fool.

  24. #74
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    Is that insider speak?

  25. #75
    lob
    lob is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grampa View Post
    It's funny but sad how the sheep even start and post on such a stupid thread as this.....
    ujust posted BAAAH

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