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  1. #101
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    My wife has a plug in Starhopper.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    The Starship will sit on top of the Superheavy?
    That's the plan when all parts are operational. Starship can operate on its own during early tests. Hopper will fly only on its own. It is an inexpensive test vehicle that does early risky tests that could fail without costing too much. The first Starship will initially fly on its own for extended tests but will later fly as the upper stage of Superheavy.


    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    When free of the Earth's atmosphere (or thereabouts) they'll separate, the Superheavy will return to Earth and land vertically.
    Yes. Superheavy will operate quite similar to the first stage of Falcon 9 now. Send Starship off and return after a few minutes. It is planned to always RTLS (return to launch site), never land downrange on a ship like many Falcon 9 first stages do. It costs some capability but allows fast reflight. The plan fur Superheavy is to not only return to the launch site but to actually land directly on the launch mount. Aiming for ability to launch several times a day.

    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    The Starship will go on to Mars, also landing Vertically?
    Yes, after refueling in orbit. Maybe 5-6 launches to refill the tanks. From Mars it will fly back and land on Earth to refly later. That requires a factory on Mars to produce over 1000t of propellant.
    "don't attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence"

  3. #103
    Thailand Expat Luigi's Avatar
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    Amazing stuff indeed. Thanks TO.


    Can you give us a rough estimate of when these developments should happen, ending with the first flight to Mars? (Q1 2020, for example)

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    first flight to Mars
    First manned 2024.

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    rough estimate of when these developments should happen, ending with the first flight to Mars?
    Suborbital hops beginning maybe next month with the hopper.

    What I am waiting for: Hopefully April/May a new presentation with updated capabilities of their ship. Probably updated schedule for their Mars plans too.

    Mid of this year, completion of the first full capability Starship, the second stage. Suborbital testflights beginning soon after.

    About end of this year, early next year completion of the first stage, the SuperHeavy, flights beginning with suborbital hops soon after.

    If all goes well, 2020 first full orbital flight. Elon Musk said likelihood 60% for 2020, rapidly increasing.

    Not earlier than 2023 a space tourist flight. Loop around the moon with Japanese entrepreneur Yuzaku Maezawa and about 8 artists he plans to invite. Very likely an unmanned testflight around the moon ahead of this. The mission plan indicates that Starship with such a low payload mass can do it without refueling in orbit. Price not known but said to be substantial, helps with financing development. Guesses in the range of $300-500 million. Still miniscule compared to any NASA efforts of a much smaller scale.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DearMoon_project

    The Mars plans are

    In 2022 sending 2 cargo ships to Mars . Transporting equipment for the propellant factory and equipment to dig for water. They can send people only once they have established availability of water for propellant production at the landing site. Planned capacity at least 100t for each cargo ship. Compared to NASA capability of landing no more than ~1t max on Mars, the weight of the Curiosity rover being just below that.

    In 2024, arriving 2025, 2 more cargo ships and 2 manned ships. Establish propellant production and a return flight 2 years later. This would be the beginning of a permanent base. People on Mars would return after arrival of more people in 2026/2027. Initially the Starship used to get there would be the habitat.Number of people on the initial flights was not given but is estimated by fans in the range of 10-12 people on each ship.

    The whole timeline is explicitly aspirational and likely to slip somewhat. But Elon Musk is increasingly optimistic that it won't slip by much.

  6. #106
    Thailand Expat Luigi's Avatar
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    Fantastic, cheers.


    One last question, I read, and think I posted about a 17 year old girl that may be the first person on Mars, and is inline with all the training and tests etc.

    How far are SpaceX into the selection procedure for the Mars astronauts (are they called astronauts?) that are planned to leave in 2024 and live on Mars for 2 years?

    Are they doing tests? Have they chosen people to be part of the astronaut program, or is there any SpaceX time-frame given for that aspect?


    Thanks again.

  7. #107
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    There is no way they will be capable to send 100T to Mars by 2024, Elton Musk is obsviously smoking too much and believe his own bullshit

    total pipe dream,

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    There is no way they will be capable to send 100T to Mars by 2024
    You are expressing the dwindling hope of the SLS crowd at NASA and Boeing. They are getting increasingly desperate. You can know that by seeing the discussions they have with increasing harebrained arguments why SLS is still needed.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    How far are SpaceX into the selection procedure for the Mars astronauts (are they called astronauts?) that are planned to leave in 2024 and live on Mars for 2 years?

    Are they doing tests? Have they chosen people to be part of the astronaut program, or is there any SpaceX time-frame given for that aspect?
    There is nothing from SpaceX on the subject except a few general remarks that designs for the equipment needed is advancing well. I believe they will send people from the teams that have designed the equipment. For most of the jobs the NASA type science astronauts are not well suited IMO. They may hire an ex NASA astronaut or two to help with training and probably go along. Much will depend on if and when NASA would get on board with the plans. NASA astronauts on the ISS are trained for months on every move they will have to make for their work on the ISS and when they are doing it 20-100 people on the ground look over their shoulder and tell them what to do next. This is not how a Mars crew will have to operate.

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    You are expressing the dwindling hope of the SLS crowd at NASA and Boeing. They are getting increasingly desperate. You can know that by seeing the discussions they have with increasing harebrained arguments why SLS is still needed.
    you seriously can't contemplate the feasibility of that project in such a short time span, with sophisticated equipment being shipped off and assuming a 100% success rate

    Question: what's the annual tonnage being send up there between ESA, China and all private US enterprises ? 15T ? 30T ?

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    you seriously can't contemplate the feasibility of that project in such a short time span, with sophisticated equipment being shipped off and assuming a 100% success rate
    During the test phase an accident or two may happen. After that better than 1 in 100 and increasing. Being able to land the spacecraft allows to find weak spots and correct them before they cause mission failures. Starship has the advantage of a quite large number of engines and it will be able to complete the mission with at least one, mostly two engines out. It is 7 engines on the upper stage and 31 engines on the first stage.

    SpaceX Raptor is the most advanced engine ever built by a wide margin. Even better than the russian engines which up to now were superior to US made engines. The russia made RD-180 is the workhorse of US ULA and launches most of the US military hardware. Designed during the final years of the Soviet Union US industry was not able to match it until SpaceX.


    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    Question: what's the annual tonnage being send up there between ESA, China and all private US enterprises ? 15T ? 30T ?
    I don't have any statistics on it. But I can make a very rough guess. Average payload may be anywhere between 3 and 8t. At 100 launches total a year that would be 300 to 800t.

  12. #112
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    Great stuff...Thanks once more, TO...

    I thought we lived in a special time when the moon was the place to be...From horse and buggy to early flight and then the giant leap for mankind...

    But this excitement is incredible...Way into the future, a family will be able to buy a station-wagon model to flit around whatever home they happen to live near/on...

  13. #113
    Thailand Expat Luigi's Avatar
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    Indeed. The leap in technology was so great, that the first man to fly, could have met the first man to walk on the moon.

    Once a break through is made, the speed of development could be astounding, especially in this coming age of AI.

    The big one will be the mastery of space-time manipulation. Possibly a few hundred years away.

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