The Mega 2016 Super Duper Super Rugby Thread

**AntRobertson** · 12-07-2016, 07:20 AM

So. Much. Yes.

**AntRobertson** · 12-07-2016, 10:31 AM

Some interesting stats*

New Zealand teams v Australian teams
Crusaders - 5 wins, 0 defeats
Hurricanes - 4 wins 1 defeat
Chiefs - 4 wins 1 defeat
Highlanders - 4 wins 1 defeat
Blues - 3 wins, 1 draw (still to play Waratahs)
Totals record - 20 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats.

Totals points: New Zealand teams 827 Australian teams 445
Average score: New Zealand teams 34 Australian teams 18

NZ wins by 13+ 13 of 24
NZ wins by 30+ 5 of 24

Aussie wins by 13+ 2 of 24
Aussie wins by 30+ 1 of 24

*unless you're an Aussie, in which case look away now.

**AntRobertson** · 12-07-2016, 02:22 PM

I enjoy Scotty Stevenson as a commentator and he's bang on the money here again.

As much as it's fun to take the phish out of the current woeful Aussie rugby in the long-term we need them to be competitive:

Scotty Stevenson: Australia's rugby struggles no laughing matter - Sport - NZ Herald News

**AntRobertson** · 13-07-2016, 10:23 AM

Just seen this. Don't really understand the maths behind it but it's a ranking of schedule strength (hardest to easiest):

**Bettyboo** · 13-07-2016, 11:42 AM

^ oh dear...

You know that point when statistics and maths start to overwhelm reason and reality; I think we've just reached it!

I reckon Stuart Lancaster looked at lots of charts like that while King Eddie just says stuff like "yeah mate, you wanna pick up the ball and go forward with it...".

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 10:16 AM

Harsh. But fair. But harsh.

Super Rugby: Time to axe the Force - Sport - NZ Herald News

"The Force can't be salvaged. Australia have neither the money, players nor coaches to stretch across five teams and even if they did find a way of fixing the Force, it would only be at the expense of one of their other teams."

Force struggles
2006 - 1 win (finished 14th)
2007 - 6 wins (7th)
2008 - 7 wins (8th)
2009 - 6 wins (8th)
2010 - 4 wins (13th)
2011 - 5 wins (12th)
2012 - 3 wins (14th)
2013 - 4 wins (13th)
2014 - 9 wins (8th) Best season
2015 - 3 wins (15th)

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 10:21 AM

Last round of the regular season...

Friday 15 July
14:35 Blues v. Waratahs
16:45 Reds v. Rebels

Saturday 16 July
00:00 Sharks v. Sunwolves
12:15 Crusaders v. Hurricanes
14:35 Highlanders v. Chiefs
16:45 Brumbies v. Force
22:05 Stormers v. Kings

Sunday 17 July
00:15 Cheetahs v. Bulls
04:40 Jaguares v. Lions

Blues v Waratarts could be a good one and some absolutely belter derbies in the Kiwi conference.

**Baas Babelaas** · 14-07-2016, 12:41 PM

a sort of 'Dummies Guide'.

I still can't understand it.

Sums you up rAnticles.

Stick to the playdough.

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 12:42 PM

You misunderstand... I can't understand it because my PC has been hacked.

dfd8#&%$50fvd,mv4-=04-5

**Baas Babelaas** · 14-07-2016, 02:02 PM

my PC has been hacked

More like your amoeba-like brain has been hacked.

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 02:03 PM

Wow. Great come-back.

**Bettyboo** · 14-07-2016, 02:09 PM

Originally Posted by AntRobertson

Friday 15 July
14:35 Blues v. Waratahs 35-25
16:45 Reds v. Rebels 14-12

Saturday 16 July
00:00 Sharks v. Sunwolves 40-20
12:15 Crusaders v. Hurricanes 28-28
14:35 Highlanders v. Chiefs 35-35
16:45 Brumbies v. Force 28-6
22:05 Stormers v. Kings 36-28

Sunday 17 July
00:15 Cheetahs v. Bulls 40-40
04:40 Jaguares v. Lions

35-35

Gonna be a lot of high scoring draws this weekend!

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 02:11 PM

Four draws??

Lions are sending a 'B' side to Argentina. Likely they'll lose that one and fuck themselves for the semis in the process.

**Bettyboo** · 14-07-2016, 02:15 PM

Originally Posted by AntRobertson

Lions are sending a 'B' side to Argentina. Likely they'll lose that one and fuck themselves for the semis in the process.

They've got enough points on the board to keep their place, but if they've sent a second string then they could well lose, as the Argies can put in strong performances at home.

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

They've got enough points on the board to keep their place

For a home QF, yes, however if they lose against the Jaguares there is a good chance that if they win the QF they'll then have to play an away SF.

**Bettyboo** · 14-07-2016, 02:41 PM

Oh, that'd be silly. Their chance in this competition relies on home everything from here on in, imho.

**AntRobertson** · 14-07-2016, 02:46 PM

I think they weighed the strain of the travel vs. resting their top players vs. keeping momentum going etc.

Tough call really. It will look like a genius call if they win and spectacularly stoopid if they lose.

**Bettyboo** · 15-07-2016, 06:33 PM

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

14:35 Blues v. Waratahs 35-25

The Waratahs slumped to a 34-28 defeat against the Blues but maintain a slim chance of reaching the quarter-finals after earning a losing bonus point.
Match Report - Blues - - - Waratahs | 15 Jul 2016

Not a bad prediction, even if I say so meself...

**Loy Toy** · 15-07-2016, 07:34 PM

They the Waratahs deserve nothing like most the other Aussie teams.

Bloody disgusting displays and playing like a team of stupid goats.

Sorry Betsy but fucking horrible shit they have served up all year.

**Bettyboo** · 15-07-2016, 08:05 PM

Originally Posted by Loy Toy

Sorry Betsy but fucking horrible shit they have served up all year.

They have played badly all year, but they have a very good squad and can play well; just not sure what happened to them this season??? Maybe, as many folks are saying, the Convicts should kick out one of the teams, consolidate the best Aussie players among the others and try to get the younger Aussies in the four teams left rather than bringing too many islanders in?

**Loy Toy** · 16-07-2016, 01:36 AM

Sounds like a good idea to me.

**Little Chuchok** · 16-07-2016, 07:24 AM

Will the Lions be genuine threats to lift the Super Rugby title after easier fixture list? video
Ben Strang 10:30, July 14 2016

The Lions are in pole position to take Super Rugby's top spot in 2016, and could well win their first title.
A glance at the Super Rugby table sees a surprising name at the top, with South African side the Lions topping the ladder.

The men from Johannesburg have been consistently good in 2016 on their way to an 11 win, three loss record at this stage of the competition.

But is that record padded out by the fact that the Lions have an easier schedule than New Zealand's four playoff-bound teams?

Are the Lions the real deal in Super Rugby?
Will they really be a threat when the heat is on and a title is on the line?

A quick glance at SOS, or strength of schedule, gives a good idea on how the teams at the top really stack up.

Malcolm Marx of Lions scores a try against the Sharks. The Lions aren't afraid to throw the ball around.
To calculate how strong a team's fixture list has been, we have borrowed the formula that was used in college football in the United States.

It takes an opponents record and the opponents' opponents record to give a fair reflection on how hard a specific team has had it any given season. Matches played between the selected team and their opponents are discounted.

By crunching the numbers, the Lions sit middle of the pack with the ninth toughest schedule in 2016, out of all 18 teams.

Their opponents in 2016 have a combined record of 90 wins, 85 losses and six draws, not including games played against the Lions.

But the record of their opponents' opponents was easier and was taken into account in these numbers.

The Blues have had the toughest schedule by some distance, with opponents winning 55.5 per cent of their matches in 2016.

It doesn't help that the Blues play in the stacked New Zealand conference.

New Zealand teams take five of the top six spots in the strength of schedule standings, with only the Sharks breaking up the group in fifth spot.

There is a vast difference in the schedule of the teams in the Africa 2 conference, having had to play New Zealand sides in crossover games this season.

Super Rugby SOS

- Blues - 0.5403
- Chiefs - 0.5293
- Highlanders - 0.5295
- Crusaders - 0.5201
- Sharks - 0.5161
- Hurricanes - 0.5127
- Kings - 0.5060
- Reds - 0.5015
- Lions - 0.4933
- Brumbies - 0.4908
- Force - 0.4904
- Jaguares - 0.4898
- Waratahs - 0.4881
- Rebels - 0.4767
- Sunwolves - 0.4165
- Bulls - 0.4127
- Stormers - 0.4096
- Cheetahs - 0.4083

The Lions, Sharks, Jaguares and Kings all had tougher schedules than those in the Africa 2 conference.

In fact, the four teams in Africa 1 have had the easiest schedules in the competition, with the playoff-bound Stormers boasting the easiest run to the finals.

The question now - will New Zealand's tough schedule catch up with them when it comes to the finals, and will the Lions' schedule aide them in pursuit of the Super Rugby title?

If there is ever proof that an easier path to the finals can help a side, look at Portugal who just won Euro 2016.

They finished third in their pool and ended up on the weaker side of the group, before winning the title.

There was also concern during the 2015 Rugby World Cup that a weak pool would mean New Zealand were rusty when it came to the knockout stages.

That draw may have left them refreshed to deliver, rather than hindering their progress.

Based on their fixture list, and the way they're playing, the Lions will be a good chance for the Super Rugby title, but will likely have to defeat a battle hardened New Zealand side if they are to lift the trophy.

Stuff

**Little Chuchok** · 16-07-2016, 08:32 AM

Originally Posted by Baas Babelaas

my PC has been hacked

More like your amoeba-like brain has been hacked.

Didn't you promise to Hack a computer, tough guy?

**Baas Babelaas** · 16-07-2016, 08:59 AM

That's 'hack', not 'Hack'.

**AntRobertson** · 16-07-2016, 09:03 AM

Either way, you didn't do it.

All mouth and no trousers aren't you momma's boy.

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