Thais Vote: Election Day 2011 - The General Poll and Results - Free and Fair?

**SteveCM** · 03-07-2011, 04:08 PM

From Twitter today:

TAN_Network TAN News Network

Bhum Jai Thai calls off press conference, apparently humiliated by disappointing exit poll results

26 minutes ago

.......

Newin at a loss for words? That's new.....

**BaitongBoy** · 03-07-2011, 04:09 PM

^^ Well said...

**Butterfly** · 03-07-2011, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by Hampsha

Butterfly, you are acting like the Bangkok hiso Thais who are 'SHOCKED' at what has happened. These shocked people are just plain ignorant self-absorbed fools who know nothing about the real Thai people. The only time they talk to average Thais is when they are giving orders or telling them to get the fuck out of their way.

maybe you should stop hanging around whores and peasants, and get to see the real Thailand

nobody is shocked, do you really think that the conspiring elite doesn't have a Plan B or wasn't aware of something like this would happen ? how long they have been running the country now ?

**LooseBowels** · 03-07-2011, 04:16 PM

Some justice there in that it looks like 3 seats for everyone of the 91 innocent protestors slain by the juntas man

Some comfort for the families.

Now bring the perpitrators to justice, The other woman Hilary has already sorted Prayuth out.

**SteveCM** · 03-07-2011, 04:16 PM

Pheu Thai leads in 3 exit polls

By The Nation
Published on July 3, 2011

The Pheu Thai Party appeared to win a landslide victory according to three exit polls. The surveys of voters after they cast their vote, the Pheu Thai would win more than 290 House seats.

The survey by Suan Dusit Poll found that the Pheu Thai would capture 313 MPs while the Democrat would win 152 MPs.

Suan Dusit found that Pheu Thai is to win 66 party-list seats and 247 constituency seats, grabbing 313 of 500 House seats.

Democrats are to secure 45 party-list seats and 107 constituency seats.

Bhum Jai Thai is projected to win four party-list seats and nine constituency seats.

Chart Thai Pattana will grab two party-list seats and eight constituency seats.

Chart Pattana Puea Pandin will win two party-list seats.

Palang Chon is to win one party-list seat and four constituency seats.

Matubhum and Rak Santi will each win just one party-list seat.

Rak Prathet Thai will win three party-list seats.

Meanwhile, the survey by Sripathum University found that the Pheu Thai would win 290 MPs and the Democrat would capture 140 MPs.

The survey by Assumption University found that the Pheu Thai would win 299 MPs and the Democrat would capture 132 MPs.

**Mickmac** · 03-07-2011, 04:22 PM

I must say the state of the politics in Thailand has made it easy to determine who the relatively intelligent people are and who the mentally deficient are, just by who the said person votes for or supports. Even though the farangs in this country who spend all their time either supporting or bagging either party are wasting their breath, their opinion means jack shit here.
Thanks to Takki and his red thugs it is easy to work out who the nut cases are.

**Hampsha** · 03-07-2011, 04:22 PM

maybe you should stop hanging around whores and peasants, and get to see the real Thailand

nobody is shocked, do you really think that the conspiring elite doesn't have a Plan B or wasn't aware of something like this would happen ? how long they have been running the country now ?

Comical. No doubt the elite don't have a problem killing their own people.

**robuzo** · 03-07-2011, 04:23 PM

Get a load of the poll on the BKK Post homepage:
Do you think political violence will occur after the election?
Yes
58.0%
No
17.8%
Depends on the new government
24.2%

Sunny optimism rules the day.

**mao say dung** · 03-07-2011, 04:25 PM

Considering BP's readership, a win for PT probably constitutes "political violence" all on its own.

**Hampsha** · 03-07-2011, 04:27 PM

Life is surreal here at times.

**Takeovers** · 03-07-2011, 04:40 PM

It seems the heavy influencing of the polls by the army, special forces, the EC, and the government, closing TV, radio stations and red publications, banning of politicans and terrorism charges has influenced the polls heavily after all.

Just not the way they intended.

**SteveCM** · 03-07-2011, 04:42 PM

From Twitter today:

TAN_Network TAN News Network

ABAC exit poll shows 6.8% no votes

39 minutes ago

.....

I assume that's as in PAD's "No vote" ("none of the above") campaign.

**English Noodles** · 03-07-2011, 04:49 PM

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Thai politics is about to get much more interesting in the next few months

You should be a political analyst.

**SteveCM** · 03-07-2011, 04:49 PM

à¸£à¸²à¸¢à¸‡à¸²à¸™à¸œà¸¥à¹€à¸¥à¸·à¸[at]à¸à¸•à¸±à¹‰à¸‡ 2554 - Voice TV - Map

(Voice TV)

Interactive map with main regions and constituencies updated live as results come in. Studio discussion ongoing.

(all Thai language)

**Takeovers** · 03-07-2011, 04:51 PM

TAN_Network TAN News Network

EC vote counts show Democrats leading in 15 constituencies so far, big contrast to exit polls.

vor 35 Minuten

**Sailing into trouble** · 03-07-2011, 04:54 PM

Steve

WHy is the North and North East so Pheau Thai and the South so Dem?

**BaitongBoy** · 03-07-2011, 04:59 PM

Originally Posted by Mickmac

I must say the state of the politics in Thailand has made it easy to determine who the relatively intelligent people are and who the mentally deficient are, just by who the said person votes for or supports. Even though the farangs in this country who spend all their time either supporting or bagging either party are wasting their breath, their opinion means jack shit here.
Thanks to Takki and his red thugs it is easy to work out who the nut cases are.

This guy hasn't even gotten OFF the boat yet...
Still whining about Thaksin being corrupt...ffs...

Try to respond on another level, ffs...

No offence...

PS: Just where the fck are you living?...

**good2bhappy** · 03-07-2011, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by Takeovers

big contrast to exit polls.

Often the case

**StrontiumDog** · 03-07-2011, 05:04 PM

If Pheu Thai have indeed got over 300, then it is a mandate. However, what will they use that massive support to do?

They have made a lot of promises. Now it is going to be very interesting to see what they deliver....

**Norton** · 03-07-2011, 05:05 PM

Anyone interested in watching English language election counts as they come in and listening to a "fair" commentary tune in MCOT2.

**Mid** · 03-07-2011, 05:05 PM

Originally Posted by Sailing into trouble

WHy is the North and North East so Pheau Thai and the South so Dem?

Thaksin v's Suthep

**StrontiumDog** · 03-07-2011, 05:06 PM

danwaites Dan Waites

Thai PBS saying Democrats leading counts in 19 of Bangkok's 33 seats. Very different story to some of the exit polls.

**StrontiumDog** · 03-07-2011, 05:07 PM

RealClearWorld - Reuters - World - Jul 03, 2011 - Thaksin party wins Thai election by a landslide: polls

July 03, 2011

Thaksin party wins Thai election by a landslide: polls

Jason Szep And Martin PettyBANGKOK (Reuters)

The sister of former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra led her party in a landslide election win on Sunday, exit polls showed, a victory for red-shirt protesters who clashed with the army last year.

Yingluck Shinawatra was swarmed by flashing cameras and journalists after exit polls showed her Puea Thai (For Thais) party winning a clear majority of 500 seats in parliament, paving the way for the 44-year-old businesswoman and political novice to become the country's first female prime minister.

"Mr Thaksin called me to congratulate me and encourage me," Yingluck said of her brother, a billionaire ousted in a 2006 coup who now lives in Dubai to avoid jail for graft charges he says were politically motivated.
"He told me that there is still much hard work ahead of us," she told reporters.

An exit poll by Bangkok's Suan Dusit University, considered the most historically reliable, showed Puea Thai winning 313 seats with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's Democrat Party taking just 152. Bangkok's Assumption University (ABAC) put the number of seats won by the opposition at 299.

Democrat Party spokesman Buranaj Smutharaks urged voters to wait for official results. Yingluck's supporters erupted in a roar of cheers as the results were broadcast on television.

"Number one Yingluck", some shouted. "Prime Minister Yingluck" screamed others, as party members slapped each other on the back.

The results, if accurate, are a rebuke for Thailand's traditional royalist establishment of generals and old-money families in Bangkok who have backed Abhisit, a British-born, Oxford-educated economist who struggled to connect with working-class Thais even as he was lauded by investors.

At the heart of Yingluck's support is the red-shirt movement that accuses the rich, the establishment and top military brass of breaking laws with impunity - grievances that have simmered since a 2006 coup overthrew her brother.

Thaksin, a former telecommunications tycoon, scored landslide election wins in 2001 and 2005 by appealing to the rural poor with populist policies, from cheap credit to universal healthcare. Yingluck electrified his supporters and ran a disciplined campaign.

Abhisit, 46, has warned of instability ahead with a Yingluck win, blames the red shirts for last year's violence and casts Thaksin as an authoritarian crony capitalist.

But after 91 people, mostly civilians, were killed, his denial that troops were responsible for a single death or injury was mocked even in the Democrat stronghold of Bangkok. A web-savvy generation could, with a few mouse-clicks, watch videos on YouTube showing military snipers firing on civilians.

Abhisit's backers -- the royalist establishment and urban middle class -- want Thaksin to serve a two-year prison term for conflict of interest offences. They say Yingluck is a proxy for her brother and would clear the way for Thaksin's return.

Abhisit had hoped to win a mandate from the people after coming to power in a controversial 2008 parliamentary vote when a pro-Thaksin ruling party was dissolved by the courts. His Democrats have not won an election in nearly 20 years.

Throughout the six-week campaign, the two sides have presented similar populist campaigns of subsidies for the poor, improved healthcare benefits and infrastructure investment including high-speed rail systems across the country.

The election is Thailand's 26th since it became a democracy in 1932, ending seven centuries of absolute monarchy. It has since been governed by 17 constitutions and has experienced 18 military coups, either actual or attempted.

Recent opinion polls had suggested Puea Thai would win at least 240 seats, a threshold that was no guarantee it could govern. Most had doubted it either side would secure an outright majority, predicting back-room talks with smaller parties would prove crucial for forming a coalition.

Investors are watching. Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy and a base for automakers including General Motors Co, has struggled to execute long-term planning -- from major infrastructure to much-needed economic reforms.

The vote is also a test for Thailand's courts, which have handed down rulings that have removed two prime ministers, disbanded six parties, jailed three election commissioners and banned more than 250 politicians since the 2006 coup.

Analysts and legal experts say those precedents suggest the courts could ultimately dictate who holds political power in the months after the election, and some fear Yingluck could still be prevented from governing.

According to some reports, the Puea Thai camp had been in talks with the generals to find some way of working together should it emerge victorious. Puea Thai would be allowed to govern and the military top brass would remain in place, with early reshuffles limited to middle ranks.

**Scaramanga** · 03-07-2011, 05:07 PM

Originally Posted by Takeovers

EC vote counts show Democrats leading in 15 constituencies so far, big contrast to exit polls.

it's vote rigging time

**StrontiumDog** · 03-07-2011, 05:10 PM

ANALYSTS VIEW - Thai opposition wins in landslide - exit polls - Yahoo! News

ANALYSTS VIEW - Thai opposition wins in landslide - exit polls

By Ploy Ten Kate, Vithoon Amorn and Wilawan Pongpitak | Reuters – 17 minutes ago

Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, makes her way through …

BANGKOK (Reuters) - The opposition won Thailand's general election by a landslide on Sunday, exit polls showed, paving the way for Yingluck Shinawatra to become the country's first female prime minister in a victory for a red-shirted political movement.

Television showed Yingluck, younger sister of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, swarmed by flashing cameras and journalists after exit polls showed her Puea Thai (For Thais) party winning a clear majority of the 500 seats in parliament.

COMMENTS:

SOMJAI PHAGAPHASVIVAT, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY, BANGKOK:

"It is now a foregone conclusion that Puea Thai will lead the next government even by itself, but I expect it to bring in small coalition partners which will not only inflate its already sizeable majority but also further weaken the opposition.

"But what we should watch is on whether Puea Thai might exploit the overwhelming poll numbers, interpreting it as a public mandate for the party to bring Thaksin home quickly. If that is the case, it could aggravate political polarization down the road. So the Thaksin amnesty issue will determine where Thai politics is heading. It is going to be a potentially big destabilising factor.

"This poll result can give Thailand a stable government and an opportunity for it to move forward in a positive way as it will smooth the way for the next government to do its job."

PARIN KITCHATORNPITAK, SENIOR ANALYST, FAR EAST SECURITIES

"The stock market could rise by as much as two to three percent. Undeniably, this is a majority vote (for Puea Thai) and there should be no objections."

"We expect more foreign inflows over the coming week."

KONGKIAT OPASWONGKARN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, ASIA PLUS SECURITIES PCL

"People want change and they get it. It tells you that a majority of people still want most of things that the ex-prime minister had done for the country in the past.

"If the poll result is absolutely accurate, this is a landslide victory for Puea Thai. Winning by a big margin would ease the problem of military intervening and make it easier for them to form the government and implement all the policies.

"We expect a jump when the stock market opens next week and this is because it is a 'big win' with less risk of having military meddling with politics."

CHAKKRIT CHAROENMETACHAI, ANALYST, GLOBLEX SECURITIES

"The market will see a strong rebound on Monday with the index testing 1,070 at one point in the day.

"Foreign investors should be much less worried about possible intervention of the external power."

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