Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

Originally Posted by Norton

Media coverage bias aside, one thing for sure is I have never seen election enthusiasm higher here. Yingluck's visit to Roiet and Sarakham area drew huge crowds.

that's probably the only good thing, a credible opposition and a government fighting for their job

we haven't seen that since 1996, so at the end, Democracy is again partially restored thanks to the Democrats

I want to put a question to the forum.

Often I compared the events in Thailand to the Philippines as I know a little more of what is going on there. Thailand seems to go by the same script as the Philippines. If this holds true faking a Democrat win in the next election would happen like what Gloria Arroyo did.

I would like your opinions if this could really happen in Thailand. I lack the inside knowledge if it is possible or likely.

Repeating the last scenarios, Coup, Juciciary coup, prosecution and criminalizing of the opposition is not a comfortable option to repeat. So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.

Reconciliation may be the by-word of the day, but in a speech by Chalerm last night at the Lumpini Park Rally, he warned Suthep not to leave the country.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Alternatively if the Democrats manage to engineer a win they will do reconciliation the only way they know. Prosecuting, jailing, banning the opposition again.

Which leaves us with violence just around the corner... No option at all really; I think we agree.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

I would like your opinions if this could really happen in Thailand. I lack the inside knowledge if it is possible or likely. Repeating the last scenarios, Coup, Juciciary coup, prosecution and criminalizing of the opposition is not a comfortable option to repeat. So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.

It is, alas, the most likely outcome. Indeed, MrT has proved very smart indeed (after being outgunned/outplayed by the army/bluebloods over 5 years or so) by putting up a woman (and such a nice one too) and offering reconcilliation. The problem is that the army/bluebloods won't take this way out unless PT get a big vote which includes Bangkok seats, imho.

They'll use the EC first, then the constituition court, the coup is an option, but it's on a scale, and the first two have done an excellent job for them over recent years, so they won't go in with tanks unless the people revolt to the first two, which means that we'll be on the route to either Burma or 70's Cambodia... The army/bluebloods should back down if the PT get the required seats in the required locations.

How many ballots will be stuffed? Hard to say. It tends not to go on to the extent of propaganda and court proceedings, though, this election could be different; I was pretty shocked at the last Bangkok council elections; I just didn't think the dems could get those numbers...

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

How many ballots will be stuffed? Hard to say. It tends not to go on to the extent of propaganda and court proceedings, though, this election could be different

The people faking elections have learned too. They are no longer going for 80 or 90% like they did in the 70ies and 80ies of last century. 48% are sufficient to form a government and is much harder to disprove and to stand up against. If only part of the opposition believes the election was fair it becomes impossible.

Originally Posted by Norton

Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale.

Thanks for the input.

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Takeovers

So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.

Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.

Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

One can only hope they are succesful.

I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Norton

Media coverage bias aside, one thing for sure is I have never seen election enthusiasm higher here. Yingluck's visit to Roiet and Sarakham area drew huge crowds.

that's probably the only good thing, a credible opposition and a government fighting for their job

we haven't seen that since 1996, so at the end, Democracy is again partially restored thanks to the Democrats

Your hillarious today butters. Restore democracy by getting the courts and army to ban, jail and kill your opponents....

Originally Posted by Calgary

Reconciliation may be the by-word of the day, but in a speech by Chalerm last night at the Lumpini Park Rally, he warned Suthep not to leave the country.

Meaning? Got a link to the speech...?

Amusing coming from a man with son's like his...

Bangkok Post : Nathawut denies instigating unrest

Nathawut denies instigating unrest

• Published: 29/05/2011 at 04:51 PM
• Online news:

Pheu Thai party list candidate Nathawut Saikua on Sunday denied he was inciting unrest by saying that the people would rise to struggle if his party won the election but was blocked from forming a government.

Mr Nathawut, a United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship core member, said he said that for wanting to send a signal to all parties concerned to make the forthcoming election a starting point to lead the country out of conflict.

"If the election is clean and fair, it would mark the beginning of peace in Thai society," he said.

The red-shirt leader said he had no intention of instigating any violent movement.

Therefore, the Democrat Party should respond by declaring publicly that it would allow a party which wins the highest number of MPs to form a government, he said.

Mr Nathawut said although the Democrat Party had sarcastically raised questions about Yingluck Shinawatra, the No 1 Pheu Thai party list candidate, the party was determined to nominate her for the post of prime minister.

Not only Pheu Thai, but also the people of the whole country that would back her for the post, he said.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290017

Democrat: Pheu Thai MP trying to discredit EC

BANGKOK, 29 May 2011 (NNT)-Minister to the Prime Minister's Office Mr. Ongart Klampaiboon said the attempt by Pheu Thai MP Mr. Prakiat Nasimma who claimed the meeting between the Presidents of the Election Commission of Thailand and the Privy Council took place was to discredit the EC.

Mr. Ongart, in his capacity as the President of Bangkok Democrat MPs, said the claim was unfounded. He further added that the date which Mr. Prakiat purported that the meeting had taken place contradicted the day when the President of the Privy Council, Gen Prem Tinsulanond, and the EC President had actually met.

Mr. Ongart said it was inappropriate for Pheu Thai MP to involve Gen Prem during the election campaign when he was not even part of the politics. He urged Mr. Prakiat to explain himself regarding the matter.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290018

Apirak believes social media have impact on politics

BANGKOK MAY, 29 2011 - The Director of the Bangkok election committee of the Democrat party, Apirak Kosayodhin talks about the role of social media in politics that nowadays there are approximately 9 million people using social media network in Thailand, therefore the party has taken this opportunity for public relations in introducing its campaigns.

The social media will also allow the people to express their opinions about the difficulties encountered on day to day basis, narcotics issues, and social affairs, and the party would consider the comments and take them into formulating the policies for resolution. Moreover, Mr. Abhisit Vejajiva, the Democrat Party Leader will communicate with people by livestream system at “Abhisit channel 10”

As for the concern over the legal issue in using social media in gaining electoral votes, Mr Apirak Kosayodhin said, the party has sent the representatives lawyer with authorities to attend the meeting collaborated with Election Commission, adding that the social network’s method required a very low budget and the party leader as well as the candidates are able to use the media to convey the messages to the media followers like Facebook and Twitter.

However, when asked whether the party thinks it would affect the results of the number of votes like in Singapore, Mr Apirak reiterated that he believed the online network users played an important role in causing an impact to politics. Moreover, there had been many online network users in the past, which could be seen from the disastrous incidents that people used social networks to help the victims.

Bangkok Post : Democrats hope to get 15 MPs in NE

Democrats hope to get 15 MPs in NE

• Published: 29/05/2011 at 01:09 PM
• Online news: Local News

The Democrat Party hopes to clinch up to 15 seats in the House of Representatives from the Northeast Region, known to be a traditional stronghold of its rival Pheu Thai Party, Vithoon Nambutr said on Sunday.

Mr Vithoon, a Democrat party list candidate in change of the party's election campaign in the Lower Northeast, said the party was certain of winning in both constituencies of Amnat Charoen province, Constituencies 1 and 2 of Yasothon, and Constituencies 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 11 of Ubon Ratchathani.

Throughout the Northeast, the party hoped to win up to 15 House seats in the July 3 election, he said.

He said Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's campaign tour to the Lower Northeast on Saturday was expected to boost the party's popularity throughout the country, not only the Northeast.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Mr. Suthep said the Democrat was taking the lead in the first round of the political campaign, given its accomplishment over the global economic crisis. He further said that claims by Pheu Thai to have gained higher supports than the Democrat were just their marketing ploy.

It would be useful to know on what he bases the claim in his first sentence. Presumably not the majority of opinion polls - to which he seems entirely oblivious when one considers his second sentence.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290004

Chalerm: Phue Thai will definitely win the election

BANGKOK, 29 MAY 2011 (NNT) - Former Pheu Thai MPs Chairperson Police Captain Chalerm Yubumrung says Phue Thai will win the election, adding that Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra will become Thailand’s first female prime minister.

Police Captain Chalerm Yubumrung the Pheu Thai heavyweight said in a campaign speech that currently Phue Thai party popularity was increasing continuously, especially in the Thon Buri areas, adding that the Democrats will definitely lose the election and Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra will become the first female prime minister of Thailand.

He also said that the Democrats would have to become the opposition party for another 12 years because Phue Thai party would continue to be in the administration for the next 12 years as well.

^ He must know something we don't......

12 years! Really?

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Originally Posted by Calgary

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Takeovers

So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.

Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.

Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

One can only hope they are succesful.

I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.

Which is again amusing, seeing as they were the party guilty of it before.

Turned over a new leaf have they?

Interesting to see a list of the parties whose candidates have not been found guilty of it..... How long would it be?

The only thing I'm "for" is a free and fair election and social justice. I am neither a Thaksin supporter nor a PTP supporter. But if that's who the majority of Thais want, then that's who they should get.

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

The only thing I'm "for" is a free and fair election and social justice. I am neither a Thaksin supporter nor a PTP supporter. But if that's who the majority of Thais want, then that's who they should get.

Before someone chimes in with the usual snip from their cue-sheet - I suggest that should more accurately read "majority/plurality".

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Originally Posted by Calgary

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Takeovers

So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.

Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.

Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

One can only hope they are succesful.

I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.

Which is again amusing, seeing as they were the party guilty of it before.

Turned over a new leaf have they?

Interesting to see a list of the parties whose candidates have not been found guilty of it..... How long would it be?

I've no doubt it would be very long. It seems to be common enough here.

The point is still made though, despite your efforts to change the meaning of the sentence. They were found guilty of it before and paid the penalty.

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

The only thing I'm "for" is a free and fair election and social justice. I am neither a Thaksin supporter nor a PTP supporter. But if that's who the majority of Thais want, then that's who they should get.

Excellent news! I look forward to your critical analysis of the current Pheu Thai policies, your condemnation of such people as Chalerm (The Untouchables - TIME), your attacks on the human rights record of the previous Thaksin governments. The total lack of talk of justice for the Red Shirts from both Thaksin and Yingluck and cynical amnesty ploy that is being mooted, both to absolve Thaksin of all his previous criminal activity and to let those who murdered people in May 2010 off the hook. And on and on and so on and so forth. As I don't recall much coming from you on any of these issues.

Can't wait...