Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

We'll join any party that helps unite the country : Sanan

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

We'll join any party that helps unite the country : Sanan

By Jintana Panyaarvudh,
Somroutai Sapsomboon
The Nation
Published on June 3, 2011



Veteran politician warns the country will come to an end if different colours protest after July 3 election

Every good politician knows that in order to be successful, you should not commit to any particular side until the final results of the election come out. And like every veteran politician, Sanan Kachorn-prasart, 76, remains non-committal as to whether his Chart Thai Pattana Party will join forces with the Democrats or Pheu Thai when it's time to form the next government.

In an exclusive interview with The Nation, Sanan said his party was ready to join any party, provided the country could be reconciled.

Sanan is being seen as the third contender for the premier's post in case there is a political deadlock after the July 3 ballot. Though the politician has not said anything openly, some people say that he is still hoping to become an "accidental prime minister".

"It will be difficult for Pheu Thai to form the next government by itself even if it wins the most MP seats [in the upcoming election]," Sanan predicted.

He said several factors would govern as to whether former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's sister Yingluck becomes the next premier. The two key factors, he said, were that Thaksin had to protect himself from accusations of being disloyal to the monarchy and he had to keep red-shirt leaders, who had anti-monarchist sentiments, out of the new Cabinet if Pheu Thai does become the core party in the next government.

About 22 red-shirt leaders, led by Jatuporn Promphan - who is in prison for terrorism and is facing lese majeste charges - are Pheu Thai candidates in the party-list system. Thaksin is said to have included them in the list in order to reward them for their role in last year's prolonged red-shirt protest.

"They [Pheu Thai] will not be able to form a government if no other parties support them," Sanan warned. If that were to happen, then smaller parties would have more of a bargaining power, not just in terms of ministerial posts but also in terms of the head of the government.

Still, Sanan believes that Thaksin is experienced enough as a politician to help his party pull through it. He said that the party that wins the most MP seats should be given the chance to form the government first, but if they fail, the chance should be given to the runners-up.

Chart Thai Pattana will play a vital role in the country's political alignment once the voting results come out. Neither Pheu Thai nor Democrat Party is expected to win enough seats to form a single-party government, but Sanan refuses to say which party he would help set up the next government, saying the decision would only be made after the poll results come out.

"I am quite relaxed and am not thinking about anything other than pushing for reconciliation. In the end, I will need to justify my party's decision [about who it will join]," he said.

Thaksin's main goal at the moment is returning home without having to face a jail term. However, Sanan refused to elaborate on the issue, and only said: "We have to respect the rule of law."

When campaigning for votes, Sanan is always dressed in pink - right down to his shoes - which he says is his party's colour and represents its motto of "reconciliation".

"We have to heal the pain, forget the past and start anew," he said, adding that reconciliation was the only way to end the conflicts. "If people in 'different coloured shirts' start protests after the election, the country will come to an end."

Chart Thai Pattana will announce its plan for reconciliation on June 21.

Handouts have made Thais weak and dependent

EDITORIAL

By The Nation
Published on June 2, 2011

The easy option for all political parties is to keep making populist promises, but this will only damage the country's stability in the long term

With just one month to go for the election, all the political parties are trying to lure voters by offering populist policies and free handouts. These promises will affect the country's fiscal position in the future, especially in cases where politicians choose to highlight their handout promises. None of this bodes well for the country's economic sustainability.

Political and economic experts all agree that Thailand is in desperate need of effective social, economic and political reform. Unfortunately, no political party is willing to make any concrete effort or promise to deliver this much-needed reform.

As the rapidly sprouting political billboards and cut-outs show, politicians have chosen to attract voters with short-term handouts, in spite of their earlier pledges to reform the country in a sustainable manner. For instance, one political advertisement promised a certain minimum wage if that party is elected. This is despite the fact that future wage levels very much depend on the inflation trend and overall economic environment.

Aside from handouts, politicians also choose to highlight their promises to begin massive infrastructure projects. Some are even promising to initiate several new routes on local mass transit systems, with cheap and controlled fares. These politicians, again, fail to inform the electorate how much will have to be squandered in public funding to subsidise such controlled prices.

Once again, the majority of election candidates, in spite of their claims to be reformists, resort to the old trick of making voters feel they have to elect them because they can be providers. These politicians have instilled in voters the wrong perception that the government will take care of them in all situations. This perception is undesirable and can only lead to more tension whenever people feel that they have not received what they were promised.

Contrary to all these false promises, the government should concentrate on enabling people to become more self-sufficient. Any country in which the people rely on government handouts will find it impossible to progress. If people don't have the will to improve themselves, and are simply looking for free help from others, a collapse is inevitable.

The demands emanating from strikes and rallies show how protesters perceive themselves. These people see themselves as victims who have to be rescued by the government. Gone is the will to fight and overcome whatever misfortunes they face, or to look at their own weaknesses and try to improve their situation through hard work and effort.

But it would be wrong to blame these people entirely for such a dependent attitude. This country's politicians have failed to reward hard-working people. Instead, they have simply provided handouts to whoever screams the loudest. It is indeed worrisome how these populist policies have played into the long-term psychology of voters.

Thailand's political crisis is the result of our inability to address the right issues, including the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots. Populist policies will not fix this problem because they are short term and wasteful. In the longer run, these policies weaken the people's ability to stand on their own feet because they have bought into the concept that they can always expect the government to come to their rescue - especially during election season.

Irresponsible promises will affect the entire population and the country's economic stability. Taxpayers' money should be spent to promote education and opportunity, not to appease certain voters for the benefit of certain political parties. Amidst the current global economic turbulence and Thailand's eroding competitiveness, we are desperately in need of better platforms that promote reasonable and effective spending and self-sufficiency amidst the possibility of harsh budget cuts in the future.

As things have transpired, all the political parties are now running in the same, yet opposite, direction. A message and warning all to politicians: Not all voters can be lured by these unnecessary handouts; what some people want to see is good politicians whose agenda is to serve the real public interest in the long term, not a Santa Claus who squanders hard-earned tax money.

You will never believe who is running for parliament...

Former tennis pro Paradorn enters Thai politics - Yahoo! Sports

Nation editors Yoon and Tulsathit discuss the TV programme reported in #1726



Uploaded by TheNationDigital on Jun 2, 2011

^^

Turned out he won't be making the finals. See https://teakdoor.com/thailand-and-asi...ml#post1762309 (Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election)

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Natthawut said the process of accusing Thaksin as the problem, was the real problem.

What does that mean?

Thailand's politics: Thaksin's last stand | The Economist

Thailand's politics

Thaksin's last stand
Victory in July’s elections would bring back Thailand’s most divisive figure

Jun 2nd 2011 | BANGKOK AND DUBAI | from the print edition



IN ONE form or another, Thaksin Shinawatra has been in the thick of Thai politics for a decade. Since September 2006, when the two-term prime minister was ousted in a coup, he has had to rely on proxies to fight his corner. And so, on July 3rd, Mr Thaksin’s youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, will be his stand-in when Thais vote in the first national election since December 2007.

The timetable has quickened the pulse at Mr Thaksin’s luxury villa in Dubai. Behind heavy curtains, he receives important guests and hosts syrupy videoconferences with rank-and-file supporters back home, the so-called red shirts. Their demonstrations paralysed central Bangkok last year. The army eventually put down the protests, with 92 killed. It sharpened the divisions between those who love and loathe Mr Thaksin.

The red shirts’ battle cry was for new elections. Now that the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has dissolved parliament, some wonder if the process might somehow be derailed. The ultranationalist, and anti-Thaksin, yellow shirts have called for an appointed royalist government to clean up politics. Asked about coup plots, military chiefs serve up boilerplate denials, just as they did in 2006.

Mr Thaksin seems unruffled by such talk. Elections will go ahead, he insists, and Pheu Thai, the party led by Ms Yingluck, should win a clear majority, assuming no electoral hanky-panky. With victory, Mr Thaksin says, Pheu Thai would invite smaller parties into a coalition government, to be the “ferns” in a “beautiful” flower arrangement.

For Thailand’s royalist generals, a victory for Mr Thaksin is an unpleasant prospect. Many red-shirt leaders want to punish those who ordered and carried out last year’s crackdown. Pheu Thai aims to amend the current constitution, drafted under military rule. It pledges to repatriate Mr Thaksin as part of a political-amnesty scheme. Mr Thaksin has told supporters he will return in November. “And when I say something, I mean it.”

For now, though, he is a fugitive from Thai justice. A two-year jail term awaits him in Thailand, passed in absentia for corruption. Mr Thaksin complains that he has been “bullied politically”, and subjected to “Mickey Mouse” court cases. Yet he claims he is ready to forgive, if not forget.

His opponents will need more convincing. After all, Mr Thaksin is widely seen as having fomented violent demonstrations and arson attacks in Bangkok (he insists that protesters were peaceful until provoked). He has many powerful enemies, including in royal circles. Any attempt at a compromise between Thailand’s warring factions, which go beyond a simple red-yellow divide, is that much harder with Mr Thaksin on centre court.

Some Thaksinites recognise this dilemma. A Pheu Thai-led government would need to build consensus around an amnesty proposal and pass the legislation “at the right time,” says Phongthep Thepkanjana, once a justice minister under Mr Thaksin. He draws a parallel with pardons granted to Communist rebels in the 1980s, including some with murder raps. Military and civilian officials behind last year’s crackdown could be covered so as to win cross-party support.

Yet the devil will be in the details. An amnesty for protesters jailed for minor offences is one thing. But if Mr Thaksin’s allies try to commute his conviction by executive decree or similar manoeuvre, resistance would come from the courts and, inevitably, from the streets.

On the stump, Mr Abhisit chides Pheu Thai for focusing solely on the past and working to exonerate Mr Thaksin. No doubt some voters are turned off by Pheu Thai’s relentless emphasis on Mr Thaksin and on the starring role of his telegenic sister, whom he describes as his “clone”. Still, plenty of others believe Thailand was better off when he was in charge.

Before he went into politics, Mr Thaksin made a fortune in telecommunications. He still smarts over the Supreme Court’s confiscation last year of 46 billion baht ($1.5 billion) from the sale of his family-owned Shin Corp in 2006 to Singapore’s Temasek Holdings. The military junta froze the proceeds after seizing power that year.

Yet the same court ruled that the remaining 30 billion baht from the sale belonged to Mr Thaksin. Indeed, this money has been transferred to his family’s accounts in Thailand. He is busy investing in African minerals and says that he plans to list these assets. He has a private jet and a cadre of devoted staff. Life is not so bad in exile. But it cannot compare to the pull of a political comeback at home.

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Uploaded by ThaiElection2011 on Jun 1, 2011

A compilation of election banners in Thailand in the July 3, 2011 election

From the blog world, a further compilation of election posters with some explanatory comments.....


vaitor.com

Thai Election Campaign Posters



The Thai election is scheduled for Sunday, 3 July after the House of Representatives was dissolved on May 10, 2011. Slowly the political parties are starting their campaigns and most parties focus on winning the majority in Bangkok. There are over 150 candidates and all bigger cities are flooded with huge campaign posters.

There are actually hundreds of variations and the following just shows a selection of the most common posters in Bangkok Downtown and suburbs.

The main parties which are predicted to lead the poll in July are the Democrats & the Puea Thai Party. Most people expect a close race but there are also ideas about coalitions since the latest numbers are not stating a clear majority.



Lets have a look at the campaign posters and what most of the parties trying to achieve. In general I noticed that nearly all campaign posters are designed & printed pretty poorly. Often faces are blurry, body parts are cut off or colors are extremely contrasted.

The Democrat posters are all kept in blue-white. Ex-PM Abhisit and other candidates are promoting the idea of ‘moving forward’. In visits and campaign speeches Abhisit is also emphasizing on the projects/packages he started in his legislation and need to continue them.



Puea Thai Party (under the imaginary lead of ex-PM Thaksin) is focusing on the new appointed candidate ‘Yingluck’. She is the sister of Thaksin and her representation is probably the most professional in this election. More on her poster, analyzed by Chris Baker: here. Some other posters praise free WIFI, ipads and many other materialistic gains – is it just a pie in the sky or real? As long as there are no answers to the question how it will be financed no one knows…



This year we also see a lot of campaign posters which stick out of the mass – mostly with funny or provoking pictures/messages.

The PAD strictly points to the ‘No-Vote’, the funny ads showing animals in suits underlined with the message “dont let animals into the parliament!”



Another provocative approach by candidate “Chuvit” and his party “Rak Prathet Thai” (Love Thailand): He is pretty outspoken and strictly against corruption and tells people to wake up (lit. jump into the pool instead of waiting in front of your computer) by voting for him.

What makes him controversial is his large chain of massage parlours, which are mostly a cover-up for prostitution in Thailand. Mr Chuwit also admitted that his masseuses sell sex every night but his reasoning seems logical: “I am helping the poor for over 10 years.”

One of the reasons for him to get into politics was that the police failed to prevent his prosecution in two criminal cases, even though he paid nearly 300,000 us dollar in bribes every month for several years.



The Bhumjai Thai Party also has a lot of posters out and my friend Saksith took a take on the weird phrases and their meaning in this article.



Other parties are not as present around the city. They go with different themes and messages… mostly all-round topics everyone can relate to.



Harmony is an often picked topic as well as the general boost of the economy.



Freedom, no blood anymore… or better road all across the country?

We will see how influential the campaigns & campaign posters are with new numbers! Just about four more weeks until Thais are heading to the polls – plenty of time to change your mind!

From the blog world.....(linked in post above but worth seeing in its own right)


Tongue-Thai’ed! Part VI: Wifebeating campaign poster edition?! | Asian Correspondent

By Siam Voices
Jun 02, 2011

By Saksith Saiyasombut


“Tongue-Thai’ed!” encapsulates the most baffling, amusing, confusing, outrageous and appalling quotes from Thai politicians and other public figures – in short: everything we hear that makes us go “Huh?!”. Check out all past entries here.

The campaign season offers many curious incidents and sightings that only appear during the run-up to the elections, political campaign posters are one of them. Usually, they display the constituency candidate, the list number, the name of the party and a more or less witty and memorable slogan.

Sometimes, the parties go the extra mile and somehow (deliberately or not) stick out from crowd – whether for the desired effect or not is another story. This year it’s no exception and some posters are drawing eyes and raised eyebrows for various reasons.

On Wednesday, Bangkok-based journalist Patrick Winn from the Global Post has tweeted this poster:

It’s a poster for the Bhumjai Thai Party, the largest coalition partner of the most recent government and considered to be a potential kingmaker for the next one. The slogan is “เลี้ยงเมีย ต้องตบ” which can be translated to “To take care of your wife, you have to beat” – beat what? Your wife, as Patrick suggested? Is this a reiteration of the proverb “เลี้ยงเมีย ด้วยเข่า” (“To take care of your wife, you got to knee her!”) to get the folksy vote? Are they endorsing domestic abuse? What do they want to say? Are we lost in translation somewhere?

The answer is tucked away right under the number and above the name of the party. It says: “‘สู้แล้วรวย’ สร้างศูนย์ฝึกนักกีฬาอาชีพ” (“‘Fight to become rich’ [We will] build sport centers for professional athletes). So, they’re not saying you should beat your wife but beat (or strike) the tennis ball to get it rolling to personal welfare! (Read James Goyder’s post on Bhumjai Thai’s godfather Newin and his ventures in local football here)

This is also a move to counter rival coalition partner Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party’s sport centric policies, who recruited a number of former sport stars running as candidates. One of them is former tennis star – or rather he was supposed to be, because he is now not on the party list since he didn’t vote in the last local elections in 2008 and thus not eligible (source in Thai here)!

Meanwhile, Bangkok Pundit has blogged about another note-worthy election poster:

This is Sophon Damnui, also running for the Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party in Bangkok’s constituency number 5. To answer Bangkok Pundit’s question why they choose this motive and the panda, one has to look at all the clues: Bangkok’s 5th is Dusit, where also Dusit Zoo is located. Mr Sophon is also the director of the Zoological Park Organization, which overlooks all zoos in the country. And guess who that panda is? Yes, this is Thailand’s new national mascot, Lin Ping. And Mr Sophon also credits himself that this cuddly panda can stay in Thailand a little bit longer before the Chinese want him back.

So, the message is clear: “Vote me and Lin Ping will stay” or something like that – and besides, who can resist such cute cuddly thing…? (Author’s note: This animal has created a bigger and more annoying hype in Thailand than Knut the polar bear ever did in Germany!)

A lot of stupid things will be said and a lot of strange posters will appear during the election campaign in the coming months. If you come across any verbosities that you think might fit in here send us an email at siamvoices [at] gmail.com or tweet us [at]siamvoices.


Saksith Saiyasombut is a Thai blogger and journalist still based in Hamburg, Germany. He can be followed on Twitter [at]Saksith.

^ One Voter One Panda!

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

A number of Type 822 grenades were also found in Wat Pathum Wanaram where the red shirt protestors camped during their violent progests last May.

Bullshit. If this was the case the Dems would have had it plastered all over the newspapers at the time. I thought the terrorist weapon of choice is a M79?
Unusually a Google Search for Type 822 grenades does not bring up any real positive hits except for this article.

Bangkok Post : Ice-thrower fails to hit Abhisit

Ice-thrower fails to hit Abhisit

• Published: 3/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

CHIANG MAI : A bag of ice thrown by a protester failed to hit Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as he visited a school on the last leg of his two-day election campaign in the North.


Caretaker Prime Minister and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva takes part in a northern-style sueb chata (life prolonging) ritual during an election campaign in Lamphun’s Pa Sang district. The prime minister has been given a pha yan (a piece of cloth with a mantra written on it) to ward off evil and danger. PATTANAPONG HIRUNARD

A protester threw the bag of ice at the prime minister's motorcade yesterday as he visited a school in Chiang Mai, where a group of red shirts turned out to meet him.

The ice-thrower disappeared into the crowd and police were unable to catch him.

Mr Abhisit visited Chiang Rai, Phayao, Lamphun and Chiang Mai during his two-day campaign stop amid tight security involving at least 500 police.

The ice attack took place at Mae Rim Witthaya School in Chiang Mai's Mae Rim district when Mr Abhisit's motorcade arrived.

A red shirt supporter is thought to have thrown the bag.

Signs of trouble were detected when a group of red shirt allies from the Rak Chiang Mai 51 group led by Kanyaphak Maneechak, better known as DJ Oam, turned up at the school before Mr Abhisit's arrival.

Security officials approached them and spent half an hour persuading them to leave.

Ms Kanyaphak agreed to leave but told authorities that relatives of red shirt victims killed during last year's riots might show up to demand justice.

At the school, Mr Abhisit said he was counting on the support of northern people in the July 3 election.

"I hope northern voters will continue to support the Democrat Party as they did in the last poll," he said.

He said the Democrats would continue to promote public participation in solving people's problems, and press on with public welfare schemes.

The policy of issuing community land title deeds to the landless poor would also push forward under a re-elected Democrat government. Community title deeds were introduced as a mechanism to deal with land disputes, especially for communities in protected forest areas and occupying public land.

The government would also promote policies on national reconciliation, as long as they did not open the way for fresh conflicts.

Mr Abhisit said people were upset about the rising prices of consumer goods. He denied claims he was advised to attend a ritual to change his luck for the better after his visit to the North.

Earlier yesterday, Mr Abhisit took part in a sueb chata ceremony at Nong Nguek temple in Lamphun's Pa Sang district. The ceremony holds out the promise of prolonging one's life.

typical pro-red cowardly attack,

Bangkok Post : Two million sign up to vote in advance

Two million sign up to vote in advance

• Published: 3/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

More than two million eligible voters have registered for advance voting for the July 3 poll outside of their constituencies.

Yesterday was the last day for voters who wanted to register to vote in advance outside their constituencies, and also for Thais living overseas to register for advance voting.

Wanchai Jaikusol, deputy chief of the Election Commission's election administration department, said a total of 2.3 million voters registered to vote outside their constituencies.

The EC will hold advance voting on June 26 for those who cannot go to vote on July 3, both inside and outside their constituencies.

Voters who want to vote in advance inside their constituencies can register at district offices between June 13-17.

Thais living overseas can cast their vote at embassies and consulates worldwide between June 12-26.

EC secretary-general Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn said yesterday a total of 32 party list candidates from 16 parties had been disqualified for various reasons _ from not voting in previous elections, going bankrupt and having been released from jail for less than five years.

Most of them were from small parties. The Sport Party of Thailand had the highest number of disqualified candidates at 11.

Yutthapong Saengsri of Pheu Thai was disqualified for not being a party member, while Phusit Muangkhuntod from Chartthaipattana Party was eliminated as he had been released from jail less than five years earlier.

Disqualified candidates can appeal to the Supreme Court up until June 9.

Meanwhile, Pol Maj Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen, adviser to the Royal Thai Police Office and head of election security, said vandals had damaged 546 campaign billboards nationwide.

The largest number, 196, were in the central provinces under the jurisdiction of Provincial Police Region 1 while 88 of them were in Bangkok.

Pol Maj Gen Pongsapat said 183 candidates, many of them in the Northeast, had asked for police protection.

Originally Posted by Gerbil

^ One Voter One Panda!

One Vote, One Water Buffalo !!!

Bangkok Post : Sanan denies plot with Thaksin

Sanan denies plot with Thaksin

Pheu Thai won't form govt with Bhumjaithai

• Published: 3/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Chartthaipattana chief adviser Sanan Kachornprasart denies he is coordinating with a close aide of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to form the next government.


All hands to the poll: Election candidates from four parties standing in Bangkok’s Constituency 11 raise their hands in front of Thung Song Hong police station where they took an oath to compete fairly. The candidates, from left to right, are Supamart Issarapakdi of Bhumjaithai, Sakolthee Phatthiyakul of the Democrats, Surachart Thienthong of Pheu Thai and Sira Jaenjakha of Rak Santi. APICHIT JINAKUL

Reports have suggested that Thaksin has assigned a handful of people close to him to discuss with two other parties the prospect of forming a coalition if Pheu Thai wins the July 3 election.

According to the reports, Thaksin has asked them to carry out negotiations in advance of the July 3 poll, in the expectation of Pheu Thai likely winning but needing the help of smaller parties to govern.

Those said to have been given his mandate include Pheu Thai adviser Sanoh Thienthong and former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat, his close aide Pongsak Raktapongpaisarn, and one of Pheu Thai's party list candidates Pracha Promnok.

The group was to discuss the prospects of a post-election coalition with Chartthaipattana's de facto leader Banharn Silpa-archa, Maj Gen Sanan, and with key members of the Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhumjaithai parties.

Maj Gen Sanan, also deputy prime minister in the Democrat-led government, said he had not been approached by anyone to form a new government, and nor had he discussed the matter with his party leader.

Chartthaipattana candidates were busy with their campaigns but the party would meet on Monday, said Maj Gen Sanan yesterday.

He insisted he was willing to support any party working to form a coalition if it would lead to national reconciliation.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai has announced it was not prepared to join with Bhumjaithai to form a government after the election.

Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit said yesterday the party's executive committee had decided not to work with Bhumjaithai because they were too different ideologically.

He hoped the decision would end speculation about whether Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai could become coalition partners.

"Since reports appeared suggesting the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties may jointly set up a government, our executive committee held a meeting to consider the matter," he said.

"Members agreed that Pheu Thai's ideologies and work methods are far different from those of Bhumjaithai.

"The Pheu Thai Party has resolved not to work with the Bhumjaithai Party or help it set up a government after the election," he said.

Pheu Thai deputy leader Plodprasop Suraswadi said the party's executive committee had also passed a resolution on campaign guidelines.

Mr Plodprasop said the resolution was not binding at this stage because many executive committee members were busy campaigning.

Under the resolution, executive committee members would not talk about the formation of a government, because doing so might spoil the party's presentation of policies to the people.

The party would not talk about the matter any further until the election result was known.

Candidates were free to discuss voter preferences on this matter, but what they said would be treated as their personal views, not the party's stance.

If Pheu Thai is in a position to form a government after the poll, the party would invite other parties to join it.

However, those parties must have the same line of thinking as Pheu Thai, and the same ideology regarding the people, democracy and justice.

Their leaders must also be acceptable to the people.

TAN_Network TAN News Network

Army chief refutes red-shirt leader Natthawut's claims that soldiers will be forced to vote for Democrats

Bangkok Post : Competition heats up for 8 seats in Surin

Competition heats up for 8 seats in Surin

• Published: 3/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

The Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and Chartthaipattana parties are competing for the lion's share of the eight MP seats in Surin province.

Surin with its eight constituencies has lately been in the political spotlight after the de facto leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, Newin Chidchob, vowed to "win big" in Surin as well as in four other lower northeastern provinces.

The other provinces are Nakhon Ratchasima, Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani.

However, it will not be easy for Bhumjaithai to win all the seats at stake in Surin, some political observers said.

The Pheu Thai and Chartthaipattana parties have also fielded candidates in all of Surin's eight constituencies. Bhumjaithai candidates in the province will face tough rivals from the two parties.

The Democrats and the Rak Santi Party have fielded candidates in all eight constituencies as well but observers said those candidates have only a slim chance of winning. Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are far more popular.

Nine other parties have fielded candidates. The New Aspiration Party's candidates are running in three constituencies. The Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party fielded only one candidate.

The Thaen Khun Phaendin Party has fielded one candidate; the For Heaven and Earth Party three; the Thai Por Pieng Party one candidate; the Palang Khon Keela Party two candidates; the Farmer Network of Thailand Party one; the Chart Samuccee Party one; and the Liberal Party also one candidate.

Observers have been keeping an eye on tactics employed by the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties, the two arch rivals in the province.

The Pheu Thai Party has appointed a lawyer, Pradap Suepsan, to represent eight of its candidates in filing a complaint with the Surin Election Commission claiming that certain government officials in the province were biased and treated candidates unfairly. They also demanded that the Surin governor and Surin police chief be temporarily transferred during the run-up to the July 3 general election.

Bangkok Post : Reconciliation: only way of getting out of this pickle

COMMENTARY

Reconciliation: only way of getting out of this pickle

• Published: 3/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

After five years of political turmoil and conflict between different coloured mobs, there is a sentiment among the Thai public that "reconciliation" is needed.

A recent Abac poll by Assumption University confirmed the mood. Politicians, forever quick to realise what people want to hear, have worked the word into their speeches on the stumps. One party even adopted it as a slogan in an attempt to claim ownership of the process.

Earlier in the week I sat through a seminar organised by the Truth for Reconciliation Commission chaired by Kanit na Nakorn. The intent of the seminar was to pass along a message to political parties to seriously embrace a platform towards national reconciliation.

By stimulating discussions at this stage of the campaign, the TRC would like to ensure that whoever wins the election, a viable solution could be mapped out without reverting back to the violence of the past year. This in itself is a commendable objective.


To promote reconciliation among Thais, students from Silpakorn University hold a campaign providing free hugs at Chatuchak weekend market.

However, as I sat through the talk which, though educating and intellectually stimulating, my mind began wondering whether we all at the roundtable, within the entire meeting room and the real stakeholders outside _ i.e. the politicians, military, reds, yellows, plus all sorts in-between and to the extreme _ were acting under the same presumptions.

For what exactly is "reconciliation"? Are they _ the conflicting parties, and each of us, the regular folk _ talking about the same thing, implying the same meaning, and willing to go through a similar, if not exactly the same, process towards reconciliation?

At one point during the seminar, respected academic and peace advocate Chaiwat Satha-anan, said jokingly, when in doubt and not knowing what to write, do what university students and some journalists do _ consult the dictionary. He used an older version (1982) and pointed out that in prongdong, the Thai word for reconciliation, only the dong part has meaning, which is to pickle _ to preserve fruit or vegetable.

I went a little further to find that dong also means "to stay unnecessarily long"; it can also imply being related to one another as in an extended family, as to dong with someone. So could prongdong mean "to preserve the attachment"?

In any case, it seems the word prongdong was only recently added to the Thai dictionary, as the 1999 version does provide a definition: to reconcile, compromise, agree in good faith.

Is this because in the past Thais were already taught to be united and thus prongdong was not needed? I will leave that to historians and linguistic experts.

A more important question to ask is, "what is it we need to reconcile?" I do not intend to be negative or pessimistic. Throughout our history, we as a nation did not have to fight ethnic conflicts or tribal warfare or to suffer from genocide. Not that we did not have differences. But people from all walks of life, ethnicity and religious belief were able to lead happy and peaceful lives under phrabaromabodhisompan, the supreme authority of the monarch which implies both compassion and tolerance towards diversity.

Should it be any different under democratic rule with a constitutional monarchy? Democracy is a system which respects differences in race, religion and ideology, with the basic assumption that all men and women are equal. It is a political mechanism to work out contentions and forge for the common good.

Not all have to be in agreement all of the time. The majority do have their way but with respect and protection given to the minority. And in a pluralistic democracy, shifting interests change the alliances and therefore what constitutes a majority or minority transforms from issue to issue.

A constitutional monarch is the head of state and holds a place above politics. Such an arrangement provides the needed unifying point for a nation. But under the institution of the monarchy, the "politics of a democracy" is the rule of the game. Competing interests must contest for public trust to further advance their causes. Pure personal ambitions will be checked by the will of the people. No one person or group should be able to dictate to society for their own benefit.

At present there are groups, especially among the old elite, technocrats, businessmen and the military, who want to impose their will upon the public, via coups d'etat, pressuring through street mobs and backroom manoeuvring while citing reasons and excuses in the name of the monarchy and national unity. Lese majeste has been used more as a political tool than to protect the institution. All this started from an unwillingness to tolerate differences and dissent.

If such groups remain dominant in influence without any initiation on their part to share power, then the task of reconciliation would be next to impossible. Power not shared will be challenged, leading to more violent confrontation.

This is the root cause of the ongoing conflict. The clashes between the different colours _ reds and yellows _ are the colliding waves on the surface that reflect a much deeper structural distortion and cultural attitude within Thai society.

To be able to reconcile is not just getting people wearing red and yellow to shake hands and let bygones be bygones. It is not just an amnesty for everyone involved in the conflict since the coup d'etat of September 2006. All that may be part of the steps toward building trust and good faith, but they would not resolve or rectify things in the longer run.

The first step towards "reconciliation" is the upcoming election on July 3. The positive sign is after that the initial uncertainties, the election will go through.

The Election Commission must work to ensure a free and fair election is held. Political parties must take leadership in accepting the election results no matter what the outcome, and to fend off any attempts to interfere from those who do not derive their powers from the will of the people. Another government set up within an army barracks would be unacceptable.

The second step is the winning political party forming the new government must re-establish the "rule of law" and to enforce the law justly with compassion and empathy; not a "rule by law" which is to interpret the written law to one's own benefit and to distort the interpertation in order to maintain power.

Third is to build a culture of democracy. Any reforms involving the drafting of constitutions and laws will again be superficial without an effective strategy to instil the core values of democracy in the public mind.

If dong is to "preserve the attachment", then what we as a nation must agree on is the diversity that exists; dissent and differences must be tolerated and cohesiveness can come about only through building a viable, pluralistic democracy.

Suranand Vejjajiva served in the Thaksin Shinawatra cabinet and is now a political analyst.

TAN_Network TAN News Network

Abhisit ignores fortune tellers' predictions of his bad fortune; denies staging PAD bomb attack

From the blog world..... (a tad late - note the date - but contains valuable info)


DPU Poll shows Puea Thai take the lead in Bangkok | Asian Correspondent

By Bangkok Pundit
May 30, 2011

Rarely do we get such a large group of voters surveyed and in all constituencies in one province. Durakit Pundit University and the Nation Group conducted a poll surveying 6,230 eligible voters in 33 Bangkok constituencies between May 23 and 25. A copy of the poll in the form of a Word DOC can be found here.

Survey data methodology.

Gender:
Male 49.3%
Female 51.7%

Education:
Less than Bachelor’s degree 68%
Bachelor’s degree or more 32%

Occupation:
Civil servant/state enterprise workers 5%
Private sector employee 20%
Self-employed 35%
Help with family business 4%
Contractors 15%
House-wife 7%
Student 11%
Unemployed 4%

BP: See BP’s post last week on the accuracy of Thai polls and remembering this is a single poll although one should note that some nationwide poll have surveyed just over 1,000 whereas this poll surveyed more than 6,000 just in Bangkok.

Q1. When asked which candidate they will vote for?




Note: The determination of “winner” has been made by the polling company and not BP.

Note: The poll information also notes that in some factors the candidate played a major role in their choice of the voter and they were Constituency 30 and the constituency for Don Muang- which are Constituencies 11 and 12 (สำหรับตัวผู้สมัครในพื้นที่ มีความสำคัญต่อการตัดสินใจลงคะแนนแตกต่างกันในแต่ละเ ขต เขตที่ผู้สมัครในพื้นที่มีความสำคัญมากที่สุด คือ เขตดอนเมืองและบางแค).

The other data from the poll is not presented in the form of a question, but just merely information as per below.

Q2.
- 82% said they intend to vote,
- 6% said they are unsure whether they will vote, and
- 12% said they think they will not vote.

Q3.
-47% said they had decided who to vote for and will not change their minds,
-16% said they had decided who to vote for, but may change their mind,
-32% said they are undecided, and
-5% said they will ‘vote no’

BP: Some points below:

1. For the 2007 general election, Democrats won 49% to Puea Thai’s 40% and that resulted in 27 seats for the Democrats versus only nine for Puea Thai. We are almost seeing a reversal this time around. It is hard to compare by constituencies given that the change of electoral boundaries means we have moved from 12 multi-member constituencies to 33 single member constituencies. As we can see that things are normally quite close in Bangkok when you add up all the votes for each party, but when you look at the constituencies this often leads to one party winning a much greater share.

2. Puea Thai Thai, they lead by 15%+ in 8 constituencies and 10-14% in 6 constituencies whereas the Democrats lead by 14%+ in 2 seats with the rest for both under 10%.

3. Puea Thai score less than 40% in 4 constituencies whereas the Democrats score less than 40% in 12.

4. When Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was asked about the poll, his response according to Matichon was that ‘things are rather close and it is like this every time’ (มันจะค่อนข้างสูสี และเป็นแบบนี้เกือบทุกครั้ง). When he was asked whether he was disappointed with the poll Abhisit answered ‘No, because they are the same as our polls’ (ไม่ เพราะตรงกับผลสำรวจของเรา). Abhisit goes onto note that things are close. The point he seems to be making is that while the 19 seats that Puea Thai are projected to win sounds high that the overall margin between the two parties in different constituencies is quite small and the overall margin is quite low.

5. Based on the above and even taking into account the margin of error and undecideds going for the Democrats in greater numbers, at the moment, it is hard to see Puea Thai winning less than 14 (a minimum of a 10% margin) UNLESS there is some major development. The Democrats need to take the marginal seats and then pick off the Puea Thai lead in the seats where the Puea Thai margin is less than 10%. Now, if the Democrats could take 19 seats that would be a major development, but it would mean the gap had narrowed from 27-9 to 19-14.

BP: It is hard to describe the poll as anything other than a good result for Puea Thai. It is just one poll, of course…