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  1. #1376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton
    Media coverage bias aside, one thing for sure is I have never seen election enthusiasm higher here. Yingluck's visit to Roiet and Sarakham area drew huge crowds.
    that's probably the only good thing, a credible opposition and a government fighting for their job

    we haven't seen that since 1996, so at the end, Democracy is again partially restored thanks to the Democrats

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    I want to put a question to the forum.

    Often I compared the events in Thailand to the Philippines as I know a little more of what is going on there. Thailand seems to go by the same script as the Philippines. If this holds true faking a Democrat win in the next election would happen like what Gloria Arroyo did.

    I would like your opinions if this could really happen in Thailand. I lack the inside knowledge if it is possible or likely.

    Repeating the last scenarios, Coup, Juciciary coup, prosecution and criminalizing of the opposition is not a comfortable option to repeat. So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.

  3. #1378
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    Reconciliation may be the by-word of the day, but in a speech by Chalerm last night at the Lumpini Park Rally, he warned Suthep not to leave the country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    Alternatively if the Democrats manage to engineer a win they will do reconciliation the only way they know. Prosecuting, jailing, banning the opposition again.
    Which leaves us with violence just around the corner... No option at all really; I think we agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    I would like your opinions if this could really happen in Thailand. I lack the inside knowledge if it is possible or likely. Repeating the last scenarios, Coup, Juciciary coup, prosecution and criminalizing of the opposition is not a comfortable option to repeat. So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.
    It is, alas, the most likely outcome. Indeed, MrT has proved very smart indeed (after being outgunned/outplayed by the army/bluebloods over 5 years or so) by putting up a woman (and such a nice one too) and offering reconcilliation. The problem is that the army/bluebloods won't take this way out unless PT get a big vote which includes Bangkok seats, imho.

    They'll use the EC first, then the constituition court, the coup is an option, but it's on a scale, and the first two have done an excellent job for them over recent years, so they won't go in with tanks unless the people revolt to the first two, which means that we'll be on the route to either Burma or 70's Cambodia... The army/bluebloods should back down if the PT get the required seats in the required locations.

    How many ballots will be stuffed? Hard to say. It tends not to go on to the extent of propaganda and court proceedings, though, this election could be different; I was pretty shocked at the last Bangkok council elections; I just didn't think the dems could get those numbers...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo
    How many ballots will be stuffed? Hard to say. It tends not to go on to the extent of propaganda and court proceedings, though, this election could be different
    The people faking elections have learned too. They are no longer going for 80 or 90% like they did in the 70ies and 80ies of last century. 48% are sufficient to form a government and is much harder to disprove and to stand up against. If only part of the opposition believes the election was fair it becomes impossible.

  6. #1381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.
    Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton
    Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale.
    Thanks for the input.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.
    Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.
    Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

    I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

    One can only hope they are succesful.

    I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.

  9. #1384
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Norton
    Media coverage bias aside, one thing for sure is I have never seen election enthusiasm higher here. Yingluck's visit to Roiet and Sarakham area drew huge crowds.
    that's probably the only good thing, a credible opposition and a government fighting for their job

    we haven't seen that since 1996, so at the end, Democracy is again partially restored thanks to the Democrats
    Your hillarious today butters. Restore democracy by getting the courts and army to ban, jail and kill your opponents....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary View Post
    Reconciliation may be the by-word of the day, but in a speech by Chalerm last night at the Lumpini Park Rally, he warned Suthep not to leave the country.
    Meaning? Got a link to the speech...?

    Amusing coming from a man with son's like his...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.
    Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.
    Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

    I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

    One can only hope they are succesful.

    I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.
    Which is again amusing, seeing as they were the party guilty of it before.

    Turned over a new leaf have they?
    "Slavery is the daughter of darkness; an ignorant people is the blind instrument of its own destruction; ambition and intrigue take advantage of the credulity and inexperience of men who have no political, economic or civil knowledge. They mistake pure illusion for reality, license for freedom, treason for patriotism, vengeance for justice."-Simón Bolívar

  12. #1387
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    Bangkok Post : Nathawut denies instigating unrest

    Nathawut denies instigating unrest

    Pheu Thai party list candidate Nathawut Saikua on Sunday denied he was inciting unrest by saying that the people would rise to struggle if his party won the election but was blocked from forming a government.

    Mr Nathawut, a United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship core member, said he said that for wanting to send a signal to all parties concerned to make the forthcoming election a starting point to lead the country out of conflict.

    "If the election is clean and fair, it would mark the beginning of peace in Thai society," he said.

    The red-shirt leader said he had no intention of instigating any violent movement.

    Therefore, the Democrat Party should respond by declaring publicly that it would allow a party which wins the highest number of MPs to form a government, he said.

    Mr Nathawut said although the Democrat Party had sarcastically raised questions about Yingluck Shinawatra, the No 1 Pheu Thai party list candidate, the party was determined to nominate her for the post of prime minister.

    Not only Pheu Thai, but also the people of the whole country that would back her for the post, he said.

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    http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290017

    Democrat: Pheu Thai MP trying to discredit EC


    BANGKOK, 29 May 2011 (NNT)-Minister to the Prime Minister's Office Mr. Ongart Klampaiboon said the attempt by Pheu Thai MP Mr. Prakiat Nasimma who claimed the meeting between the Presidents of the Election Commission of Thailand and the Privy Council took place was to discredit the EC.

    Mr. Ongart, in his capacity as the President of Bangkok Democrat MPs, said the claim was unfounded. He further added that the date which Mr. Prakiat purported that the meeting had taken place contradicted the day when the President of the Privy Council, Gen Prem Tinsulanond, and the EC President had actually met.

    Mr. Ongart said it was inappropriate for Pheu Thai MP to involve Gen Prem during the election campaign when he was not even part of the politics. He urged Mr. Prakiat to explain himself regarding the matter.

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    http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290018

    Apirak believes social media have impact on politics


    BANGKOK MAY, 29 2011 - The Director of the Bangkok election committee of the Democrat party, Apirak Kosayodhin talks about the role of social media in politics that nowadays there are approximately 9 million people using social media network in Thailand, therefore the party has taken this opportunity for public relations in introducing its campaigns.

    The social media will also allow the people to express their opinions about the difficulties encountered on day to day basis, narcotics issues, and social affairs, and the party would consider the comments and take them into formulating the policies for resolution. Moreover, Mr. Abhisit Vejajiva, the Democrat Party Leader will communicate with people by livestream system at “Abhisit channel 10”

    As for the concern over the legal issue in using social media in gaining electoral votes, Mr Apirak Kosayodhin said, the party has sent the representatives lawyer with authorities to attend the meeting collaborated with Election Commission, adding that the social network’s method required a very low budget and the party leader as well as the candidates are able to use the media to convey the messages to the media followers like Facebook and Twitter.

    However, when asked whether the party thinks it would affect the results of the number of votes like in Singapore, Mr Apirak reiterated that he believed the online network users played an important role in causing an impact to politics. Moreover, there had been many online network users in the past, which could be seen from the disastrous incidents that people used social networks to help the victims.

  15. #1390
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    http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290015

    Egg thrower at Pheu Thai campagin last night being hunted down


    BANGKOK, 29 May 2011 (NNT)-Democrat Secretary General Mr. Suthep Tuagsuban said the suspect, who threw a rotten egg during the political campaign of Pheu Thai last night, had not been identified yet.

    Mr. Suthep said the Democrat was taking the lead in the first round of the political campaign, given its accomplishment over the global economic crisis. He further said that claims by Pheu Thai to have gained higher supports than the Democrat were just their marketing ploy.

    The Secretary-General added that the Opposition was also good at creating situations in a bid to gain sympathy votes from the public. He has told his team to investigate and reveal the truth to the Thai people.

    Mr. Suthep denied knowing who the egg thrower was during Pheu Thai political campaign at Suan Lumphini yesterday but had instructed related officials to track down the suspect.

    Meanwhile, he cited that there was no need for the Democrat to adopt a new strategy to boost its political campaign. Moreover, he said the upcoming election would give Thais the opportunity to reconcile their differences and to prevent political violence to happen like last year.

    -----
    Earlier report....

    http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290008

    Pheu Thai political campaign targetted with rotten eggs

    BANGKOK, 29 MAY 2011 (NNT) - Two rotten eggs were thrown at Pheu Thai speakers on stage during the party's first party list candidate, Ms.Yingluck Shinawatra’s speech.

    Reports suggested that during Ms. Yingluck's first political campaign speech in Bangkok, two rotten egg were thrown from a bridge onto the stage. However, the egg did not hit any of the speakers.

    In front of the King Rama VI Monument at Lumphini Park, Pheu Thai Party policy speeches were addressed to the public. Several included inflation prevention and low income issues which would be responded by strategic marketing. Mega project investments will provide more jobs, more cashflow and purchasing power, said Ms. Yingluck. In addition, Pheu Thai suggested that in the past, predecessor Thai Rak Thai Party had provided 3 million jobs per year, but after the lost of influence and political power, half of the number had declined.

    Ms. Yingluck also added that despite the major setbacks for her brother and the party, unity and good relations could still be achieved among members of the public. She claimed femininity was not an issue and real strength came from within, citing that drugs and corruption would be the party’s top priority.

    It was also reported that before Ms. Yingluck’s appearance on stage. The audience was prompt for an active reception, however a group of listeners on a bridge nearby threw two rotten eggs down the stage that missed Ms. Yingluck but landed on the press tent. Later, police forces were dispatched to the bridge to guard any further mishaps.
    Last edited by StrontiumDog; 29-05-2011 at 05:41 PM.

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    Bangkok Post : Democrats hope to get 15 MPs in NE

    Democrats hope to get 15 MPs in NE


    The Democrat Party hopes to clinch up to 15 seats in the House of Representatives from the Northeast Region, known to be a traditional stronghold of its rival Pheu Thai Party, Vithoon Nambutr said on Sunday.

    Mr Vithoon, a Democrat party list candidate in change of the party's election campaign in the Lower Northeast, said the party was certain of winning in both constituencies of Amnat Charoen province, Constituencies 1 and 2 of Yasothon, and Constituencies 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 11 of Ubon Ratchathani.

    Throughout the Northeast, the party hoped to win up to 15 House seats in the July 3 election, he said.

    He said Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's campaign tour to the Lower Northeast on Saturday was expected to boost the party's popularity throughout the country, not only the Northeast.

  17. #1392
    Thailand Expat SteveCM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog View Post

    <snip>

    OTHER RELATED SPECIAL REPORTS BY AHRC/ALRC
    For the sake of completeness and to provide some context, the following ALRC reports are also worth a look (more at alrc_statements ):

    2009
    THAILAND: The rise of the internal-security state and decline of human rights in Thailand
    ASIA: The human rights situations in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand
    THAILAND: NHRC not independent nor composed according to international standards
    THAILAND: "Unsubstantiated" police abuses, impunity and human rights charades

    2008
    THAILAND: Law against torture needed to comply with Convention
    THAILAND: Continued threats to rule of law & human rights under elected government



    Of more recent vintage (March 2011), the "Article 19"* submission to UN HRC is also useful: http://www.article19.org/pdfs/submis...submission.pdf

    To quote from its executive summary:

    Given the expertise and scope of activities of ARTICLE 19, this submission focuses on
    Thailand’s compliance with its international human rights obligations in protecting the right to
    freedom of expression and right to freedom of information. Thailand is a party to the ICCPR.
    The new 2007 Thai Constitution provides a series of protections for freedom of expression and
    information, including a whistleblower protection (Article 62), which makes Thailand one of the
    small handful of countries that protects those who provide information in suspicion of the
    conduct of government in their constitutions. In practice however, the Thai government falls
    short of meeting its obligations. In particular, since 2006 following the political unrest, the
    government has tightened its grip on freedom of expression in broadcast, internet and other
    mediums, and has used a regime of legislations to stifle political debates. The major issues of
    ARTICLE 19’s concern are:

    • Government use of emergency powers to suppress freedom of expression;
    • Restrictions on the right to freedom of expression on the internet;
    • Use of defamation and lčse-majesté laws to silence critics;
    • Failure of the government to effectively implement the Official Information Act;
    • Control of media by the military and government.



    * Article 19: Global Campaign for Free Expression
    .

    “.....the world will little note nor long remember what we say here....."

  18. #1393
    Thailand Expat SteveCM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
    Mr. Suthep said the Democrat was taking the lead in the first round of the political campaign, given its accomplishment over the global economic crisis. He further said that claims by Pheu Thai to have gained higher supports than the Democrat were just their marketing ploy.
    It would be useful to know on what he bases the claim in his first sentence. Presumably not the majority of opinion polls - to which he seems entirely oblivious when one considers his second sentence.

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    http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255405290004

    Chalerm: Phue Thai will definitely win the election


    BANGKOK, 29 MAY 2011 (NNT) - Former Pheu Thai MPs Chairperson Police Captain Chalerm Yubumrung says Phue Thai will win the election, adding that Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra will become Thailand’s first female prime minister.

    Police Captain Chalerm Yubumrung the Pheu Thai heavyweight said in a campaign speech that currently Phue Thai party popularity was increasing continuously, especially in the Thon Buri areas, adding that the Democrats will definitely lose the election and Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra will become the first female prime minister of Thailand.

    He also said that the Democrats would have to become the opposition party for another 12 years because Phue Thai party would continue to be in the administration for the next 12 years as well.

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    ^ He must know something we don't......

    12 years! Really?

  21. #1396
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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.
    Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.
    Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

    I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

    One can only hope they are succesful.

    I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.
    Which is again amusing, seeing as they were the party guilty of it before.

    Turned over a new leaf have they?
    Interesting to see a list of the parties whose candidates have not been found guilty of it..... How long would it be?

  22. #1397
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    The only thing I'm "for" is a free and fair election and social justice. I am neither a Thaksin supporter nor a PTP supporter. But if that's who the majority of Thais want, then that's who they should get.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer View Post
    The only thing I'm "for" is a free and fair election and social justice. I am neither a Thaksin supporter nor a PTP supporter. But if that's who the majority of Thais want, then that's who they should get.
    Before someone chimes in with the usual snip from their cue-sheet - I suggest that should more accurately read "majority/plurality".

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveCM View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    So my best guess would be yes, they would go the path of directly faking the elections, if they can.
    Unless there is a drastic change in how polling stations are handled, much more difficult to do in Thailand. Voting and vote counting done at local level and reported to national level. Each polling station has check to see if voter is qualified to vote at that station and local police monitor the polling area. Vote boxes are then transported to district offices for counting and reporting. The system can and has been cheated but because all counting done locally less likely on a mass scale. Doubt there will be much ballot stuffing and the like. If the wrong party wins more likely will be "rectified" via EC disqualification recommendations to constitutional courts as has been the case in the past. We shall see if this is repeated but if so will not amuse the voters.
    Someone close to me spoke yesterday to the PT official charged with the responsibility to monitor and ferret out all instances of voting irregularities and take vigilant preemptive measures to guard against electoral fraud.

    I dont know how his team does their work, but they certainly are geared up to monitor and guard against this stuff.

    One can only hope they are succesful.

    I would love to see a high profile, well funded and empowered initiative to eradicate vote buying. I am convinced that where there is a will, there is a way.
    Which is again amusing, seeing as they were the party guilty of it before.

    Turned over a new leaf have they?
    Interesting to see a list of the parties whose candidates have not been found guilty of it..... How long would it be?
    I've no doubt it would be very long. It seems to be common enough here.

    The point is still made though, despite your efforts to change the meaning of the sentence. They were found guilty of it before and paid the penalty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer View Post
    The only thing I'm "for" is a free and fair election and social justice. I am neither a Thaksin supporter nor a PTP supporter. But if that's who the majority of Thais want, then that's who they should get.
    Excellent news! I look forward to your critical analysis of the current Pheu Thai policies, your condemnation of such people as Chalerm (The Untouchables - TIME), your attacks on the human rights record of the previous Thaksin governments. The total lack of talk of justice for the Red Shirts from both Thaksin and Yingluck and cynical amnesty ploy that is being mooted, both to absolve Thaksin of all his previous criminal activity and to let those who murdered people in May 2010 off the hook. And on and on and so on and so forth. As I don't recall much coming from you on any of these issues.

    Can't wait...

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