Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

Originally Posted by Buksida

Originally Posted by DroversDog

Originally Posted by Buksida

Thaksin didn't want reworking of the constitution, it wouldn't have done any good, because he bragged publicly that his landslide election victories gave him an unprecedented mandate, a legitimacy which trumped that of the Constitutional Court and other bodies.

Under him the military was re-politicized, with his old friends, classmates, and relatives in key positions.

He resigned, but then wouldn't leave office. One day his a red shirt, next day he isn't, one day his sister's got the job, then he says she hasn't, then he lies about saying it.

The man is a nutter.

Thaksin is a lot of things, though a nutter is ain't.

A nutter in the sense of a meglomaniac.

The State Media is certainly in agreement with you on that Buksida.

One key aspect of mature Democratic changing of the party in power, the winning group brings in its own team. The day after an election, is moving day.

Thaksin bringing in his own people after a convincing electoral victory is normal. Can you imagine him leaving all those Amart types in key positions. Winning an election bestows certain privileges.

That slight waffling on Yingluck for PM has more to it than meets the eye. SOMEBODY is raising objections. But you wont read about that.

I hesitate entering any Thaksin related discussion however, as it gives license to all the Thaksin haters to once again recirculate all the stuff the State Media has fed them.

From the blog world.....


Will Yingluck debate Abhisit? | Asian Correspondent

By Bangkok Pundit
May 25, 2011

If BP was a gambler, BP would put money down on there being a debate given the odds of there being a debate don’t seem that high. Despite some statements by members of Puea Thai, Yingluck has actually not ruled out a debate. The Democrats are likely to continually raise the issue of Yingluck needing to debate Abhisit. The expectation seems to be that if there was a debate to quote Tulsie “the truth is that Abhisit could beat her 10 times at the podium”. Hence, there is a view that Yingluck won’t debate Abhisit as she knows she will lose.

However, BP thinks Yingluck will not directly debate Abhisit in a one-on-one debate, but if there is a debate featuring multiple party leaders Yingluck will then. In fact, multiple party leaders may actually be required for legal reasons. The Nation:

Former Election Commission member Gothom Arya said an election debate would benefit the people as it would give more information about each party’s policies as well as the personality of party leaders who propose to be prime-ministerial candidates.

However, such a debate in Thailand might face legal constraints , he said.

“How can we give equal time to the leaders of all the political parties as stipulated by the law? Is it acceptable to hold debates for only some party leaders people see as having a better chance of becoming the prime minister? What [about] the supporters of small parties?” he asked.

“Party leaders with administrative experience would have an advantage over the new faces. In the current case, Abhisit would have an advantage over Yingluck – but a debate between Abhisit and Thaksin would be very interesting,” Gothom said.

Quick side note: Actually, a debate between Thaksin and Abhisit would be entertaining, but it will be disastrous for Yingluck as it would focus attention on Thaksin….

The Bangkok Post also notes that the only form of a debate currently being organized is with multiple party leaders:

Asked about the invitation for an election debate on June 24 by the People’s Network for Election in Thailand (PNET), Ms Yingluck said she will have to check whether there is any appointment for election campaign or other important thing on that day.

“I will also have to see and consider details of the debate first,” she said.

PNET has invited leaders of leading political parties for the debate, including Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat.

BP: Now, what does “leading” mean? A chance of winning seats? Now, the debate format is where Abhisit excels and where Yingluck will be at a disadvantage, but if the debate format is Abhisit, Yingluck, Chaowarat (of BJT), Chumpol (Chat Thai Pattana), Chuwit etc all on show then this changes the dynamic. Yingluck then just has to perform better than most/all of the others aside from Abhisit and sound reasonable in her answers. The others are also at a disadvantage and will not want to be seen as bullying a woman either.

If there is a debate, the argument that she has not been tested then becomes significantly weaker. Yingluck is always going to face the nominee issue, but if she wants to appear as her own women then a debate is the best way to do this. In fact, it will be the best way to show to independent voters/silent majority she is a credible alternative to Abhisit. Now, for Yingluck to appear enough third and smaller political party leaders will also have to turn up so we will need to see what happens regarding there attendance first….

Finally, BP agrees with what Pichai says in the Bangkok Post:

Even though Khun Yingluck is at a disadvantage in a debate against Khun Abhisit as far as experience is concerned, I am not sure it will be that easy for the prime minister as well. He cannot be too aggressive or arrogant. And certainly as far as experience in business is concerned, I dare say that she has a distinct advantage as she probably has a better understanding of how businessmen think and work.It may be wishful thinking on my part and Khun Yingluck’s political advisers may have many reasons why she should not agree to take up such a challenge. But I say why not?

Why not break the mould or political taboo and have a debate, and let the people decide?

BP: Indeed…

btw, mention of “moral” is mostly related to momentum and psychological factors, but can also relate to mandate and legitimacy.

I certainly hope Yingluck doesn't fall into the trap of engaging in a debate with the "anointed one". Avoiding a debate in spite of charges of evasion, is not unusual in mature Democracy's. Why give the lesser light oxygen.

Also, somebody very knowledgable about both western professional elections and leader debates, says that they differ significantly from what would happpen in Thailand.

In Thailand she says, debates are focussed primarily on mud-slinging rather than promotion of policies. Some of this happens in the West to be sure, but not to the degree it does here.

On top of that, The "anointed one" would be an extension of his roots, who are professional at making up stories which are then legitimized through their State Media. He could come up with the most bizarre story, and his Media would discuss it in all seriousness, lending it credibility and giving it an aura of truth. One doesn't have to look further than the stories about people running into bullets, little ole village men and women being terrorists, Red Shirts shooting themselves plus fabricated shadowy shooters instead of the military.

With the State Media being what it is, it would be a no-win situation for Yingluck. They would make pontifical statements and judgments meant to maximally place her in a bad light.

She could be the mother-of-all debaters and humble the "anointed one" massively, but the State Media would follow it up immediately with such Yingluck negativity making the casual observer wonder if he/she saw the same debate.

If I were her I would refuse to debate and accept any criticism which stems from that. It would be minor compared to what the State Media would heap on her regardless how she performed

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...hai-popularity

Abhisit doubts P.Thai's popularity

• Published: 25/05/2011 at 02:25 PM
• Online news:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva believes the Democrat Party is still neck and neck with Pheu Thai in terms of popularity and that poll results showing otherwise are not a true indicator of the likely outcome of the general election.

Mr Abhsit said on Wednesday he did not believe the Pheu Thai Party would win up to 270 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives.

Pheu Thai claims it's own survey shows the party's popularity had surged to such an extent that it could emerge from the election with 270 MPs.

Mr Abhisit said no recognised poll had confirmed this figure.

Mr Abhisit maintained the results of polls currently being conducted were inconclusive.

"Poll results are fluctuating. A newspaper headline said Yingluck (Shinawatra)'s popularity has surged.

"In fact, she is only richer than me. Her popularity in various aspects increased simply because she has made it clear she is now in the race.

"I don't believe in that 270 figure. No pollsters have confirmed the figure.

"If they are certain of winning 270 seats, why do they keep asking us for that promise (to let the party with the most MPs form the next government)?" Mr Abhisit said.

Asked about the latest poll by Bangkok University which showed more people committed to voting for Pheu Thai than committed to voting for the Democrat Party, Mr Abhisit said the poll results could not be used as a definite indicator.Half of the respondents said they were undecided which party they would vote for, he said.

Mr Abhisit said if the Democrat Party was government after the election he would ask the Truth for Reconciliation Comission chaired by Kanit na Nakorn to resume its work.

He would also invite former prime minister Anand Panyarachun to return to work for national reform.

Even if there was a change of government, the truths concerning political rallies of the red shirts in April-May last year would remain unchanged, Mr Abhisit said.

On Pheu Thai's complaint lodged with the Election Commission against Suthep Thaugsuban, the Democrat Party secretary-general, Mr Abhisit said Mr Suthep had only said of facts concerning the red-shirt rallies.

On security for election candidates, the Democrat Party leader said he wanted police and the Elelction Commission to pay more attention on this matter.

Today, Mr Abhisit was scheduled to help Democrat candidates campaign in Phayathai district in the morning and in Samut Sakhon province in the afternoon.

He would travel to the South on Friday and the Northeast on Saturday.

Thai-ASEAN News Network

What Has Thai Society Gained from Political Parties?

UPDATE : 25 May 2011

After the registration period for party list MP candidates ended on May 23, it is very intriguing to see that as many as 40 political parties with 1,410 candidates have registered to contest in the upcoming general election; not to mention the constituency-based candidates who just started to file their applications yesterday. Even though some parties did not plan to field all of the 125 MP candidates as allowed by the electoral laws, this is the first time in Thai political history that voters have seen so many candidates field in an election.

By looking back in history, there was once a time when as many political parties participated in election. However, due to the nature of the Thai political and electoral systems, many of these small parties died out. While during the same period, politicians have been busying switching parties. As a result, Thai politics have been dominated by old familiar faces. Even though there have been some emergence of newer generations of politicians, they are usually strictly controlled by their parties’ senior members. Because of this, Thai politics has been running in place.

While most parties have vanished, only a handful such as the Democrat, Chart Thai, Social Action have managed to survive.

Even the Pheu Thai Party, which is the main opposition party, originated from the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party. For this election, there are many new political parties on the scene. However, they are also found by the old politicians who are putting their hopes on the single district member system. They are also looking to make a name for themselves as the party list has been increased to 125 candidates. They no longer have to garner at least five percent of the votes to count.

On the surface, it looks as if the democracy is blossoming in Thailand as there are many choices available to voters. However, the democracy had nothing to do this. Most of these parties are simply a part of political maneuvers, backdoor deals and power brokering. Their platforms are not that different from each other.

It is even questionable if they could turn their campaign promises into reality. In the end, only the Democrat or the Pheu Thai parties will be the one who decide the course this country takes. This is a failure of Thai politics which will repeat itself again in the future.

Taken from Editorial Section, Kom Chad Leuk Newspaper, Page 4, May 25, 2011

Translated and Rewritten by Kongkrai Maksrivorawan

Please note that the views expressed in our "Analysis" segment are translated from local newspaper articles and do not reflect the views of the Thai-ASEAN News Network.

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Originally Posted by SteveCM

if there is a debate featuring multiple party leaders Yingluck will then.

With 30 (give or take a couple) registered parties there would have to be some sort of selection criteria. Number of registered candidates is only one makes sense to me. Pheu Thai, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, Democrat, Social Action, Bhumjaithai, and Chart Thai Pattana all have 125 candidates. A six way debate would be manageable and appropriate for country wide broadcast.

With 4 of the 6 part of the ruling coalition, Yingluck would be foolish to agree to debate.

She is better off not to agree to any sort of public debate. Nothing to gain and plenty to lose. From now until the elections she should be stomping through key swing provinces to garner a few extra seats and increase her popularity. Her opposition needs to do the same if they have any hope of winning.

^#1011

Originally Posted by Bkk Post

"In fact, she [Yingluck] is only richer than me. Her popularity in various aspects increased simply because she has made it clear she is now in the race.

He'll have to do a lot better than this lame gambit. 1] Thai tend to rather "admire" rich - he just sounds jealous. 2] He's rather ignoring the fact that her reported surge in popularity is to the extent that it now exceeds his (and, yes, that can change). Get some good writers, Mark.

Originally Posted by Bkk Post

"If they are certain of winning 270 seats, why do they keep asking us for that promise (to let the party with the most MPs form the next government)?" Mr Abhisit said.

It's a fair point - or would be if PT had been continuing to say anything much about it since the recent clutch of opinion poll results emerged. AFAIK, they haven't been - so that's yesterday's news. If/when the poll results change, they almost certainly will be.