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  1. #3126
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    yup thats why I posted it as I did.

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    Common knowledge...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary
    Abhisit's major flaw is that he is surrounded by the people at the top of pyramid in Thai society, hence he could not connect with the grassroots (ahem, riceroots) people.
    Abhisit is merely another example in a long history of Dem failed campaign strategy. They have failed to recognize an inconvenient truth embodied in politics 101. To win elections one must gain the trust and support of the electorate no matter how good the policies and programs of the party. They have failed miserably to do so in the North and Northeast where as Thaksin's strategy has proven highly successful.

    The solution sits right before their eyes but the Dems continue a march of folly proven to result in failure. They want to win elections, they must do as Thaksin did but better. This will never be done by parachuting in during the election campaign, waving party banners and kissing babies.

    It will take a concerted full time effort to build a rice roots political machine capable of getting out the vote. Crucially important, Dem leadership must get out of their ivory tower in Bangkok and mingle with the peasantry. Dems have had years to do this but clearly they ignorantly don't recognize the need or they simply are incapable of getting their feet dirty slogging around in an Isaan rice paddy.
    But they also seem to have this curious arrogance about them.

    This has been best exemplified by their PAD brethren and their stuff about considering a wide swath of the electorate too ignorant to vote responsibly.

    This arrogance is also visible via a strong Democrat constituancy, the Government Officials. This privileged strata of society is very visible with their fancy uniforms.

    Can you imagine being told that for whatever reason they want to remove your voting rights via an appointive system because you are not educated enough to vote in your self-interest. And that besides, your self-interest is not important.

    People remember this stuff.
    Last edited by Calgary; 23-06-2011 at 12:14 PM.

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    Bangkok Post : Poll: PT leads Dem in Bangkok

    Poll: PT leads Dem in Bangkok


    More voters in Bangkok polled recently would vote for the Pheu Thai Party than the Democrat in the July 3 election, according to Bangkok Poll results released on Thursday.

    The poll on the general election was conducted from June 16 to 22, seeking opinion from 3,338 eligible voters in Bangkok.

    The Research Centre at the Bangkok University or Bangkok Poll, reported that 37.9% of respondents said they would vote for constituency MP candidates of Pheu Thai, followed by the Democrats (22.2%), and Rak Santi (1.2%).

    A total of 22.1% of them had not yet made the decision, 7.8% did not answer and 5.1% of them would not vote for any candidates or Vote No, according to Bangkok Poll.

    Asked about party list MP candidates, 38.3% of the respondents would support those of Pheu Thai, 21.6% backed the Democrats, 20.6% had not yet made the decision, 7.8% did not answer and 1.6 would vote no.

    On the question about the person they wanted to become the next prime minister, 47.2% said Yingluck Shinawatra, given that they wanted to give an opportunity to the new comer and to have the country’s first female government leader.

    Prime Minister and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva took second place, getting support from 28.0% of the respondents who wanted him to continue his work and that the policies of the Democrat are good.

    Rak Santi leader Purachai Piamsomboon got 5.1% support for his honesty and 3.9% backed Chuwit Kamolvisit, leader of Rak Prathetthai Party, for being an open person who dares to speak out.

    Asked about their confidence in the Election Commission in holding a free, fair and transparent election, 57.1% of the respondents felt negative, 42.9% of them positive.
    "Slavery is the daughter of darkness; an ignorant people is the blind instrument of its own destruction; ambition and intrigue take advantage of the credulity and inexperience of men who have no political, economic or civil knowledge. They mistake pure illusion for reality, license for freedom, treason for patriotism, vengeance for justice."-Simón Bolívar

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    Bangkok Post : Northeast continues to be a thorn in Democrat side

    THAI POLITICS

    Northeast continues to be a thorn in Democrat side

    The Democrat Party looks set to repeat its lacklustre performance in the Northeast in the general election, as it has failed to overcome the hurdle of being seen as a party with no connections whatsoever to the country's poorest region.


    An elephant marks a mock ballot paper in Ayutthaya province on Tuesday, during an election campaign encouraging people to cast their votes on July 3. Around 47.3 million Thais are eligible to vote in the general election, which will primarily be a two-horse race between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s Democrat Party and the Pheu Thai Party of Thaksin Shinawatra.

    The ruling party, which is trying to catch up with Pheu Thai Party in the opinion polls, realises that voters from the Northeast can greatly boost its chances to rival the Thaksin Shinawatra-backed party led by his youngest sister, Ms Yingluck.

    The Northeast offers 140 seats in the lower house, or almost 40% of the 375 constituency MPs.

    Past elections have shown that any party commanding this region gives its leader a greater chance to control Government House. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was prime minister in 1996, thanks to the strong showing of his New Aspiration Party in the Northeast.

    Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party also grabbed most of the seats in the region in the 2001 and 2005 elections.

    For the Democrats, the northeastern region is a bitter pill to swallow due to the poor showing of its supporters in that part of the country.

    It has tried in vain for years to break this jinx but so far the perception remains the main barrier.

    "People in the Northeast still think that the Democrat Party is associated with the South. They have seen no connection between the party and its region," says Sampan Techa-atik, from Khon Kaen University's faculty of humanities and social science.

    His assessment is in line with the Democrats' internal poll, which has found the party could not impress northeasterners, according to key party member Chamni Sakdiset. At least they rated the popularity of Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva over his own party, the poll said.

    That is the reason prompting the party to shift its strategy to try to sell Mr Abhisit in its message to drive voters in the region to vote for the Democrats, as the political campaign moves into the final leg. It hopes that at least the people will vote for the Democrat Party on the party list system, if not for its candidates running on the constituency ticket.

    The party has already projected a modest result of the competition in the region which covers 21 provinces, including Phetchabun.

    Even Mr Abhisit did not mention the northeastern region when asked about the Democrats' competition with Pheu Thai two weeks before the polls.

    He only said the Democrats could beat its rival for seats in the lower northern areas including Nakhon Sawan, Tak and Kamphaeng Phet.

    Realistically, the best chance it can get votes from the constituency contest is in Ubon Ratchathani, which has the second most seats after Nakhon Ratchasima. This time Ubon Ratchathani has 11 seats at stake compared with 15 in Nakhon Ratchasima. Even in the three provinces of Bung Kan, Nakhon Phanom and Sakon Nakhon, the party says only one out its 13 candidates will win.

    The rest is largely a fierce fight between Pheu Thai, which rides on the popularity of Thaksin, and the Bhumjaithai Party which is run from behind the scenes by Newin Chidchob, who at one time had been Thaksin's close aide.

    The main target for the Democrats this time are those as yet undecided which party to vote for, and also members of the People's Alliance for Democracy in the Northeast who are supposed to vote "no" on the ballot.

    This group, most of whom are living in cities and suburban areas of northeastern provinces, will not support the PAD's erstwhile New Politics Party, and they reject Pheu Thai because they strongly oppose Thaksin. This group is looking for a party to vote for on July 3.

    The Democrats have sent key members to seek votes from this group. But it is facing an uphill task because of its weak links in the region.

    "Do not expect these people to overwhelmingly vote for the Democrats," Mr Sampan says. "They are more likely to spread the vote to other small and medium parties" because of the image of the Democrat Party, he added.

    The chances of the Democrats winning over Pheu Thai in this region are slim and the party can only hope that Bhumjaithai will significantly undercut the popularity of Pheu Thai. The latter two parties are running neck and neck in several northeastern provinces.

    The ruling party hopes that its combined seats with Bhumjaithai in the nationwide contest will be enough to prevent Pheu Thai from reaching the majority mark of 250 seats out of 500 in the lower house.

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    Bangkok Post : Keeping out the frivolous

    EDITORIAL

    Keeping out the frivolous

    Five of the country's most important business groups have issued one of the most common-sense statements on the election. The associations have called for a responsible election, to be followed by a calm study of what mistakes the country is making in social development, and how to fix them.

    Like the groups' recent call for an organised fight against corruption, the attempt to cool the hotheads of Election 2011 is welcome.



    The call to reason by the Federation of the Thai Capital Market Organisations, Thai Bankers' Association, Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries and the Tourism Council of Thailand, will stir political opposition and support. Still, it is understandable why the media groups _ the Thai Journalists Association and Thai Broadcast Journalists Association _ want to support the call for national reconciliation and fairness. Any reasonable citizen should do the same.

    One important point addressed by the business-media statement concerned integrity. There is likely to be cheating in this election, as there has been in every election. Blatant cheating, clear bribery, intimidation of voters and the like must be exposed.

    But the election passions must also be properly harnessed. As the appeal for common sense put it, everyone "must accept the election results". This means that responsible parties must not file, and the authorities must not accept, frivolous complaints.

    In recent days, it has been suggested that an alleged assault by a Pheu Thai supporter on a Democrat Party backer could be the subject of a complaint that would end up in the dissolution of Pheu Thai. Even giddier partisans claim that heckling of candidates should be considered as a grave example of election cheating. These are only examples from this week's headlines, but they could set the stage for an avalanche of flippant complaints against winning candidates and parties in the days following the election.

    Already, one unaligned but anti-Pheu Thai group has set up a group of "warriors" to shadow candidates to gather evidence of legal breaches, in order to "red-card every winning PT candidate".

    This sort of mean-spirited and anti-democratic attitude will land the election, democracy and the country in much more difficulty than it already is. Candidates should be called to answer for clearly illegal tactics which resulted in victory.

    Just as vote-buying and ballot-box stuffing are obvious violations of the election laws, any attempt to disorganise the results of the election should be considered an equally clear violation of the spirit of the election laws.

    Silly complaints may be made by people of ill will, but must be weeded out and discarded by the Election Commission and, if necessary, by prosecutors and the courts.

    Anyone who makes false claims against any candidate should be held to account before the courts. Nor can officials make political parties responsible for the actions of their supporters. To even suggest this would be a strong invitation to perform "dirty tricks" and blame it on another group.

    An election is held to gauge the opinion of voters about who they want to govern the country. Any attempt to upset the polls at any time must be dealt with seriously. This holds true whether it is politicians or bitterly partisan citizens trying to cheat the voters.

    It will be unacceptable if frivolous complaints are used to overturn the voters' choice.

  7. #3132
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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
    Poll: PT leads Dem in Bangkok Published: 23/06/2011 at 11:26 AM Online news: Politics More voters in Bangkok polled recently would vote for the Pheu Thai Party than the Democrat in the July 3 election, according to Bangkok Poll results released on Thursday.
    If this is true, and PT have a greater vote in Bangkok than the dems then it's over... Time for army/blueblood intervention; phase 1, dem to get enough seats, is lost. Time for phase 2...

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    Bangkok Post : Prayuth's army and the post-election scare

    Prayuth's army and the post-election scare

    It is certain that the new prime minister after the July 3 election will either be incumbent Abhisit Vejjajiva, or Pheu Thai's leading lady Yingluck Shinawatra.


    Soldiers secure the area as Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva campaigns for his ruling Democrat Party in Yala province on Tuesday.

    As far as several polls are concerned, Ms Yingluck is up and coming, leading her rival in the various scenarios being painted up till polling day. Pheu Thai is eagerly sending the message to voters to give her the chance to become "the first female prime minister of Thailand".

    Ms Yingluck and her Pheu Thai have a good chance to win this time. But will it be easy for her to be the government leader?

    At least, she has to make sure that other political parties will join Pheu Thai if it comes up short of a majority in the 500-seat parliament. Then again, she has to handle the "outside factor", one of them being the message sent out last week by Commander-in-Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha.

    Gen Prayuth urged all voters to elect qualified candidates who are clean, ethical and loyal to the monarchy. He also called on the silent majority to show their power and openly opposed voters who were thinking about voting "no", asking them to reconsider that position.

    The army leader's remarks cannot be interpreted as anything but a show of his stand against the red shirts and Pheu Thai.

    The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is at odds with Gen Prayuth and the army over the Task Force 315, as the red shirts suspect that the Internal Security Operations Command is using this unit to tame Pheu Thai supporters. The army has denied that accusation.

    Gen Prayuth is widely known as a Queen's Guard and his loyalty to the monarchy is unquestionable. Viewing him in this context, it is no surprise why he decided to send a clear message through army-controlled media outlets.

    Faced with the army's opposition, Pheu Thai has only one chance to fulfil its goal _ a landslide win in this election, so that it will not need help from other parties. Which means Pheu Thai will have to gain more than 250 seats in the lower house.

    And even if it can achieve that, the next stumbling block will be the "red cards" which could reduce the number of its seats in parliament. Soldiers under the Isoc and Task Force 315 sent to several areas across the country are gathering evidence of vote-buying and any violation of the election law. All information will be forwarded to the Election Commission to punish candidates if they win the contest fraudulently.

    Thaksin realises that for Pheu Thai, the road to Government House is not strewn with roses, so now he has another card to play _ in case his party has to seek the support of other parties to form a government, where his sister might not be their favourite choice for prime minister. A high-level source in Pheu Thai said Thaksin is ready to compromise by accepting any choice offered by phuyai (respected seniors) to become the premier under a Pheu Thai-led government. He even is not opposed to keeping Gen Prawit Wongsuwon on as defence minister, the source added.

    Perhaps the army commander's display of his strong stance is making Pheu Thai seriously think about the future if it wins the polls.

    Ms Yingluck has made clear that she will not touch the position of Gen Prayuth. She prefers him staying on as the army's No. 1 officer. "We also want peace and stability to return to the country. We don't want to have problems with the army. But the army must realise its duty and responsibility," she said.

    But many key figures in Pheu Thai want to see Gen Prayuth out of his present position because of his lack of neutrality in this election. Those subscribing to this idea believe that this year presents the only chance to move him out of the most powerful position in the army. This is because Supreme Commander Songkitti Jaggabatara will be retiring at the end of September. If the army picks the joint chief-of-staff of the armed forces, Gen Tanasak Patimapkorn , to succeed Gen Songkitti, he will stay in that position until 2014. Both Gen Prayuth and Gen Tanasak belong to Class 12 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.

    The problem is, who will be promoted to become the new army chief if Gen Prayuth has to go, given that many top generals holding key positions now are under his control.

    One possible choice is Gen Thanongsak Apirakyodhin, who is an army adviser and former leader of the Third Army Region. His cousin is a member of Pheu Thai, and he would be able to serve in the army till 2013.

    The bottom line, according to an ex-army officer in Pheu Thai, is that "the party does not want to have problems with the army. The party and army have their own responsibilities and we can talk. We will not seek revenge but the army has to improve itself and know what role it has to play".

    The same retired officer added: "If the army rejects the chance to return to barracks and continues interfering in politics, then Pheu Thai Party will have to take action by making changes [in the army]."

    Meanwhile, Mr Abhisit realises how slim his chances are of leading the Democrats to an outright victory, but he seems confident his party will be given another opportunity to form a coalition government. Mr Abhisit dismissed the notion that Gen Prayuth had come out in his support. "I don't think so," Mr Abhisit said. "Please don't look at his remarks as a message to support the Democrat Party. "What's wrong if an army officer urges voters to pick good candidates? I myself do not have any connection with the army," he added.

    Now it will be up to what happens on July 3, when voters decide which party they support.

    The one major concern for the army remains Pheu Thai.

    "After the election, the country could be plunged into trouble if Pheu Thai wins but cannot set up a government," an army source quoted Gen Prayuth as telling his subordinates.

    Gen Prayuth has ordered 200 companies of soldiers to be ready after election day and soldiers under the the 1st Division (King's Guard) also are preparing themselves to handle possible protests, in order to prevent any repeat of what happened in April and May 2010.

    One thing several officers do not want to receive is an assignment for another coup. They admitted that it was what they wished to avoid most, because it was stressful and this time things might not be that easy. But "if the boss orders" them to do so, they said they would have to comply.

    Wassana Nanuam reports on military affairs for Bangkok Post.

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    [quote="StrontiumDog"]One thing several officers do not want to receive is an assignment for another coup. They admitted that it was what they wished to avoid most, because it was stressful and this time things might not be that easy. But "if the boss orders" them to do so, they said they would have to comply.[/QUOTE]

    To treason? They would they have to, against the wishes of 68 million Thais? Very strange... Why, exactly, would the have to?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary View Post

    The Amart will come unglued the moment anything substantial is attempted. So no point in delaying it.

    [...]

    The Amart will try to sabotage anything substantial no matter when it is done, so in the afterglow of a huge electoral victory, I think they are the most vulnerable.

    A huge electoral victory is a mandate.......so do some serious mandating immediately! (no pun intended)
    I think so too. It's an "I dare to you to launch another coup given our mandate" move. The Amart-Military would immediately be compared to Burma and the US would have no wiggle room on that one.

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    ^ they would. Don't underestimate the stupidity of the western masses or their governments knowledge of this stupidity.

    Thailand could perform a coup (or 50 EC red cards or a PT CC ban) and be supported by the US/EU, etc.

    But, internally is where the problem would be; from the South, the North/North Wests, and most importantly from Bangkok and the Central region.

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    The Nation seems to predict exactly the outcome that I guessed the Democrats would be aiming for. Unfortunately it looks just a little bit too much off the poll results to be accepted by the people in the North and Bangkok

    The Democrats plus the Bum Jai Thai match the Pheu Thai so only a few Red Cards and a little arm twisting on the other small parties would be required to form a Democrat Government again.

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    Thai-ASEAN News Network

    PM Deems Thaksin Major Snag to National Unity

    UPDATE : 23 June 2011

    The Democrat Party leader believes ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is the mastermind behind the movement of red-shirt protesters who have been harassing him during his campaign tour.

    Prime Minister and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said it is undeniable that ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is behind the movement of red-shirt supporters protesting against him everywhere he goes during his election campaign tour.

    He added that all placards with messages aimed at attacking him imply links to the convicted politician.


    Nonetheless, Abhisit assured that his party will be able to restore national unity if elected to resume office.

    He said if the party fails to gain support from the majority of voters, that will mean the public is happy with the current state of the nation.

    The premier revealed that he never feels angry nor wants to take revenge when people protest against him.

    He only wants to tell the public that he simply could not accept an amnesty proposal because it's for the sake of certain individuals, and it will not lead the country to national harmony.

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    ^^
    Given the source (The Nation) it's not surprising they are trying to reduce the numbers of PTP. Again, I think it's all part of a long-planned move to rig this election by making sure the Dems and BJT have just enough votes to form a coalition.

    I really wonder why were not hearing more about the obvious need for a full-on international election monitoring of the Thai vote.

    If EVER there was an election that needed internatonal observers "in force" then this is the one.
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    Well the Thai EC did say last week that EU election monitors were coming, but still nothing from the EU side, so as I stated then, it seems to be lies to attempt to justify upcoming EC actions...

    Press releases (or lack of) from relevant EU departments:

    EUROPA - Press room
    European Union - EEAS (European External Action Service) | EEAS - More news

    (I'm thinking about sending an email to the EU asking if there's any truth in the Thai EC's statement...)

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    ^
    It needs to be full-on - not some token half-dozen officials sitting at the HQs of the major parties and a couple at the main returning office. That would be pointless. They need people in the field.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo
    Well the Thai EC did say last week that EU election monitors were coming, but still nothing from the EU side, so as I stated then, it seems to be lies to attempt to justify upcoming EC actions...
    It is way too late now to assemble any meaningful international observer body.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo
    Well the Thai EC did say last week that EU election monitors were coming, but still nothing from the EU side, so as I stated then, it seems to be lies to attempt to justify upcoming EC actions...
    It is way too late now to assemble any meaningful international observer body.
    Absolutely.

    And even if they did come.

    Who would they meet and be briefed by.......The Amart.

    Do you think naiive and innocent Europeans would have the wherewithall to overcome Thai election manipulations.

    Nah, they wouldn't be smart enough

    In a previous life as a teacher at a Rajabhat University (the baby-sitting University for young Thai adults) I made it my mission and that of my farang assistant, to beat student cheating on quizzes and exams.............Couldn't do it. Damn, I am such a loser!

    The only hope for any monitoring is the UDD. They are motivated and trained and above all, Thai. The problem is there will not be enough of them.
    Last edited by Calgary; 23-06-2011 at 01:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
    ^As Pheu Thai are number 1 and everyone should be aware of this by now (it is after all on all their posters, of which there are a lot!), then I don't know what the big deal is. Unless of course you live under a rock...
    The complaint is that the box looks empty. People may mark their vote in that box instead of in the correct one on the right-hand side. If they do that then the ballot is spoiled and the vote is not counted. Pretty obvious, unless of course you live under a rock....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary
    The only hope for any monitoring is the UDD. They are motivated and trained and above all, Thai. The problem is there will not be enough of them.
    They are more likely to increase the chance of their candidates being red carded for poll infractions. There is a ban on political activities at/near polling stations on polling days. The more 'monitors' they have, the more the chances are that some will be 'overzealous' and provoke complaints from rivals about their activities.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbil View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Calgary
    The only hope for any monitoring is the UDD. They are motivated and trained and above all, Thai. The problem is there will not be enough of them.
    They are more likely to increase the chance of their candidates being red carded for poll infractions. There is a ban on political activities at/near polling stations on polling days. The more 'monitors' they have, the more the chances are that some will be 'overzealous' and provoke complaints from rivals about their activities.
    Special emphasis in their training focussed on this issue of what to do - and not to do - when they spot infractions and how to monitor in an unobtrusive and non-confrontational way.

    I am not sure of the details, but this was a concern, and they feel they have prepared for it.

    We will see.

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    ^ Yeah right.

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    Pheu Thai seeks court injuction on ballot design

    Pheu Thai seeks court injuction on ballot design

    The Pheu Thai Party has petitioned for a court injuction to force the Election Commission to modify the ballot design.

    In its petition lodged at the Central Administrative Court on Thursday, the party said the ballot was designed in such a way as to confuse voters intended to mark the No 1 box, designated for Pheu Thai.

    The court has yet to rule on whether to launch an urgent inquiry on the issue before the advance vote on Sunday.

    The Nation

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    ^ May cause a delay to the election if they have to reprint millions, right?

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    http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255406230011

    Noppadol denied Pheu Thai a puppet for Mr. Thaksin


    BANGKOK, 23 June 2011 (NNT)-Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin Shinawatra’s legal advisor Mr. Noppadol Pattama has countered Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva over his public letter concerning the amnesty and 91 deaths that it is not true.

    The legal advisor said he felt sorry for Mr. Abhisit for his attempt to make the public believe that the Pheu Thai Party and its number one candidate Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra were only Mr. Thaksin’s puppets.

    Mr. Noppadol cited the portion of the letter where it is stated that Pheu Thai would grant the amnesty and return 46 billion THB to Mr. Thaksin was unfounded. He added that it was not fair for Mr. Abhisit to be making such accusations when in fact neither Ms. Yingluck nor her party has ever said they would do such things.

    Mr. Noppadol expressed his confidence that Thai people would not believe this was true. He then urged Mr. Abhisit to compete in this political game in fairness and to stop making false accusations and accept the poll result.

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