Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

Officials should not try to whitewash the government

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Officials should not try to whitewash the government

By Pavin Chachavalpongpun
Published on June 22, 2011

Panitan Wattanayagorn, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister and acting government spokesperson, dropped by my institute in Singapore on June 3 to give a talk on the topic "Thailand's future after the election".

The objective of this talk was clear: to glorify the Democrat Party, rather than to discuss the future of Thailand as the title suggested.

His talk lasted for just over an hour, including a question and answer session. Many expected that, as the government's spokesperson, Panitan would have no problem in delivering a straightforward and well-thought-out speech. As it turned out, some of his statements were confusing, others simply surreal. He said that he was a government official and not a member of any political party. Yet, he continually spoke in favour of the Democrat Party.

Obviously, Panitan is launching a nationwide and international election campaign on behalf of the Democrats.

Unsurprisingly, there were two fundamental threads in Panitan's talk: eulogising the Democrat Party for its past success, and demonising the government's opponents. But while Panitan was keen to give his side of the story, he refused to answer some hard-hitting questions - questions that challenge the legitimacy of the government.

Panitan chose to look at the Thai political situation from late 2008 onward, the period after which the Democrat Party came to power. In so doing, it allowed him to ignore other significant political events in the pre-2008 period, such as the launching of the anti-Thaksin campaign by the yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which led to the coup in 2006; the PAD's politicisation of the Preah Vihear Temple issue; and its occupation of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport. Some of these political events were supported, or even participated in, by certain members of the Democrat Party.

Instead, Panitan reiterated an angelic image of the Democrat government. He could not emphasise enough the success of the Democrat Party's economic and social policies, including free education, cash handouts to poor Thais and an income-guarantee scheme for farmers.

Thailand under the Democrats was prosperous, he said, with the country's economic growth reaching 7.8 per cent in 2010, with only 1 per cent unemployment, despite the protracted political crisis. But Panitan could have avoided a lengthy and somewhat tedious elaboration on Abhisit's "impressive" programmes by just referring to Thaksin's past populist policies - since both are astonishingly similar to one another.

Panitan then embarked on attacking his government's opponents, not directly but through sarcastic rhetoric. For example, he reminded the audience that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was unable to deliver a policy statement to Parliament on December 31, 2008 because of a blockade by a group of anti-government demonstrators. To Panitan, this marked "the beginning of a long two years of struggle between the opposition and the government".

Panitan also said that the Democrat government wanted to pull Thailand out of a vicious circle of political protests, violence and instability that were "very much centred on the interests of only one man". It doesn't take a genius to understand that Panitan meant to say that Thaksin is behind all the bad things that have gone wrong in the kingdom over the last few years.

The government, according to Panitan, was sincere in wanting to restore peace and promote reconciliation, particularly after the deadly confrontations in Bangkok in May 2010. To demonstrate this, the state authorities decided to release some of the red-shirt core leaders from prison and permitted them to contest the upcoming election. Panitan said proudly that Abhisit had a clear idea at the beginning that he never wished to serve a full term but rather to return power to the Thai people, on the condition that the economy was strengthened and vital political reforms carried out. And Abhisit has kept his promise. In other words, Thailand was lucky to have a prime minister who was not power-hungry.

On top of that, according to Panitan, Abhisit enjoyed an amicable working relationship with the media. Panitan stated: "In all major decisions we made, we invited the media to come in and observe."

Ironically, Panitan swept under the carpet one shocking fact: Under the Abhisit regime, more than 113,000 websites had been blocked and over 300 Thais to date have been arrested for airing views that are different from those of the state.

As the focus was on the freedom of expression, an American scholar asked why Panitan was reluctant to talk about the contentious case of Thammasat University historian Somsak Jeamtheerasakul, who has been charged with lese-majeste, despite the fact that Abhisit once said that academic views were tolerated. Panitan admitted that the case was complicated, but pointed out, "No man is above the law in Thailand."

The glorification of the Democrat government was fulfilled at the expense of many critical issues facing Thailand being totally neglected. Panitan failed to discuss the ongoing conflict in the deep South, the long-drawn-out investigation of the brutal crackdown of May 2010 which led to 91 people being killed and more than 2,000 injured, the political intervention of the military, the reform of the royal institution and the repeated abuse of the lese-majeste law.

Analytically, Panitan's Singapore tour revealed a deep anxiety within the Democrat Party and its associates within the governing and elite circles. They live in fear that the power of electoral democracy will once again pose a serious threat to their entrenched position. When asked by a journalist if the Democrats and their backers would accept the election result this time around, Panitan did not say a word.

Never mind. His silence provided an answer to this intricate question.


Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. The views expressed here are his own.

Originally Posted by Buksida

Originally Posted by DroversDog

Originally Posted by Buksida

Originally Posted by Calgary

Should a strong PT electoral mandate be established, wot do the denizens of this Board think should be done with it in the first 100 days?

Umm, how about ridding the country of corruption? What would you like to them to do, Calgary?

Which country has done that?

None, that I know of. What would you like to see them do in their first 100 days?

Start investigations into the judiciary would be a start. If corruption is at the judicial level then you can forget about stopping it anywhere else.

^

Originally Posted by DroversDog

Start investigations into the judiciary would be a start. If corruption is at the judicial level then you can forget about stopping it anywhere else.

Very good point - but that's also one of the biggest minefields. If you include political wind-blowing, it also goes way back - through the 2001 assets case and beyond. A lot of skeletons. Another "third rail" in Thai politics - almost makes you wonder why the actual rail system here is so under-developed.....

Cabinet or Coup?



Which will come first if Pheu Thai wins the elections, formation of the cabinet or coup de tat?

• Published: 22/06/2011

........

Bangkok Post's Voranai takes an advance look (I lost count of how many times he says "premature") at what a PT-led government might look like - and possible repercussions. Maybe I'm too much of an old video hand, but it's sad to see multimedia oh-so-clever-aren't-we? used/abused like this..... Still there are some valid points struggling to escape the gimmickry.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Buksida

Samak was an idiot, more focused on cooking than running the country.

that was actually a good thing,

Even without having tried his cooking, I would have to agree.

He really showed he was a puppet during the Al Jazeera interview when he claimed only a few died at Tak Bai and that was because of Ramadan.

10 days to go; don't blink

10 days to go; don't blink

By The Nation
Published on June 23, 2011


While most popularity polls have all but ruled out a close race, a closer look at each constituency may give a little different perspective on the July 3 general election. Here are what the Nation Group political reporters and our provincial writers have come up with after dissecting the contest constituency-by-constituency, taking into account past records, canvassing networks, each individual's appeal, among other key factors. Although this is not an opinion poll, our analytical approach was intended to augment your insight into Judgement Day

There are only 10 days left before the July 3 national poll and it is still a race between the two largest political parties - Pheu Thai and the Democrats.

They are expected to win up to 380 House seats combined while the remaining 120 seats are likely to be shared among six parties - Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, Palang Chon, Matubhum and Rak Thailand.

Pheu Thai still enjoys strong support since Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ex-premier Thaksin, was declared the party's candidate to be prime minister. This is coupled with the party's renewed populist policies aimed at many categories of voters - farmers, parents, new graduates and workers.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva also is trying to woo specific groups of voters with the party's own populist platform. And today, the Democrats will focus on last year's unrest and rioting - particularly "the burning of the city" - at CentralWorld, which was a target of arson attacks after the red shirts' street protest was dispersed on May 19 last year.

Our survey of the constituencies all over the country shows that Pheu Thai candidates are still leading in all regions, except the South, although the party is unlikely to score a landslide victory.

In Bangkok, the 33 constituencies are likely to be split between Pheu Thai and the Democrats. In the latest round of surveys, Pheu Thai seemed likely to bag 16 seats and the Democrats 12 seats, with neck-and-neck competition between the two parties for the six remaining seats.

Pheu Thai is expected to take Constituencies 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 23, 25, 26 and 29. The Democrats are likely to pull ahead in Constituencies 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 27, 30, 31, 32 and 33. Tight competition is expected in Constituencies 5, 18, 20, 24, 28 and 32.

CENTRAL, NORTH, ISAAN

The two parties also are expected to dominate the 96 constituencies in the Central region's 26 provinces although parties like Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana are likely to share large chunks of seats and could even eat into the seats won by the larger parties' MPs from the 2007 poll.

In the election four years ago, the Democrats could perform well in Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Phetchaburi, where it could snare all the seats up for grabs in those provinces. However, with a stronger red-shirt movement in those provinces and the birth of a provincial party like Palang Chon in Chon Buri, the Democrat candidates are having a hard time trying to beat their competitors.

In the North, which has 67 seats from 16 provinces up for grabs, Pheu Thai is likely to dominate due to its strong support base and the popularity of its former MPs. However, the Democrats still have a chance to win House seats in the northern provinces where the red shirts' influence is not strong and where the Democrats can still count on the backing of loyal supporters. Parties like Chart Thai Pattana and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin are likely to secure some seats in this region.

The Northeast, with 126 House seats from 20 provinces, has the largest number of MP seats. Pheu Thai has "owned" this region since 2001, when the party was known as Thai Rak Thai.

Although many ex-MPs from its previous incarnation - the now-disbanded People Power Party - are now with Bhum Jai Thai, Pheu Thai still enjoys support from a strong network of red shirts. However, Pheu Thai is unlikely to sweep Isaan as the Democrats and Bhum Jai Thai are expected to gain their share of seats.

SOUTH

In the South, the Democrats have a good chance of monopolising almost all of the 53 constituencies in 14 provinces. The country's oldest party is likely to prevail in 48 out of the 53 constituencies, with the rest expected to be divided among Matubhum, Chart Thai Pattana, Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai.

As for the party-list election, with 125 seats at stake, it is estimated that a party has to attract at least 240,000 votes to get a seat from this system. This Nation Group estimate assumes that about 70 per cent (or 33.1 million) of the 47.3 million eligible voters will actually go to the polls, as well as 1.5 million spoiled ballots and 1.5 million "no vote" ballots.

In all, Pheu Thai is expected to acquire 55-60 House seats from proportionate voting, the Democrats 40-45 seats, Bhum Jai Thai 8-10, Chart Thai Pattana 5-7, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin 3-5, Rak Thailand 2-3, and Matubhum and Palang Chon one each.

'Good talking' PM now the subject of regular gibe

BURNING ISSUE

'Good talking' PM now the subject of regular gibe

By The Nation
Published on June 23, 2011

"Good only at using big words" has been a popular phrase used to attack Prime Minister and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. He faces it everywhere, including when he went campaigning in the Southern province of Pattani on Monday.

For the PM, the phrase is a fabrication by opponents who have sought to prevent him seeing and communicating with people, as well as to discredit him.The first time a sign carried this message was on March 6, when Abhisit spoke at an event to commemorate International Women's Day. Jittra Kotchadej, leader of the laid-off Triumph International workers, brought the sign after she thought of red shirts who died in the political turmoil last year. She called him a "murderer" but claimed no one was listening. She had other signs: "Whose hands are blood-stained?" and a sarcastic "Yeah?"

No matter if Jittra is one of the red shirts or if she supports the opposition, the reds and Pheu Thai regularly use her words to attack Abhisit. "Good at only using big words" is a phrase he recognises well.

In a Facebook note Abhisit said he wrote while returning from a World Economic Forum meeting in Indonesia, he gave a list of achievements as proof he is more than just talk - and has accomplished a lot.

He said that if he just talked, his life would have been easier. He said it was Thaksin Shinawatra who only used big words to the red shirts - wooing them to the protest last year; someone who promised he would stand "side by side" with them on the front lines if there were gunshots - but was actually shopping in Paris during the drama.

Abhisit said that in the past two years, his government had lifted the country out of an economic slump to almost 8-per-cent growth, turned around shrinking exports and boosted tourism to a historically high level.
He said his government had steered the country through a world economic crisis without millions of people losing their jobs. His government kept inflation low while the rate in some neighbouring countries was close to 30 per cent. Moreover, he said the country's public debt compared with gross domestic product had been reduced to lower than 40 per cent, which was lower than that under governments led by Thaksin.

Reacting to Abhisit's Facebook note, Jittra wrote that the Democrats could not really prevent unemployment. She thought its job training for laid-off workers did not suit their skills, and that the 15 years of "free" education cost parents much more than state subsidies as the minimum wage had not been hiked to Bt250, as Abhisit once said it should for workers to survive. In her view, Abhisit has not accomplished what he promised and he must continue to face the accusation.

In fact, as the election looms, all parties and politicians are making sweet promises to voters via various policies. No one has been as heavily attacked as the PM. The claim of only being good at talking - rather than doing - may have lingered partly because the Democrats are seen as a party full of tactful people. All eyes are watching the ruling party at a time when people have heightened political awareness and competition is especially fierce.

Pheu Thai and the red shirts will, undoubtedly, not let up on this attack on Abhisit. But this should also be a signal to all politicians to watch their words, keep their promises and not give big words that could take them away from reality.

Abhisit out of touch with the grass roots: Thida

Abhisit out of touch with the grass roots: Thida

By The Nation
Published on June 23, 2011

Red-shirt leader Thida Thawornseth has written a critique of Democrat Abhisit Vejjajiva, arguing that he is bound to face the voters' wrath because he is out of touch with grass-roots people.

Thida's son Salaktham Tojirakarn released the critique dated Tuesday and published it on VoiceTV website.In rebutting Abhisit's four messages describing his ordeals on the job posted in the social medium Facebook, Thida alluded to Abhisit under the title "Small Bird in a Golden Cage".

Here are excerpts:

- What happened is not entirely Abhisit's fault. He is just a player being propped up as prime minister at a crucial period when Thailand is confronting a deep conflict between the bureaucratic polity (amatiyathipatai) and the people.

- The conservative elements in the bureaucratic polity, including the elitist class and the military, have tried to cling to power for as long as possible.

- The conservatives propped up Abhisit in their fight against Thaksin Shinawatra.

- Abhisit's background, such as coming from the upper crust of society, getting the best of British education and being raised in a conservative environment, means he could not understand society from any dimension other than that shared by elitists and conservatives.

- Abhisit's major flaw is that he is surrounded by the people at the top of the pyramid in Thai society, hence he could not connect with the grass roots.

- When Abhisit had to campaign and get in touch with the people after the crackdown, he was confronted by the stark reality that people are angry and demanding answers from him in connection with last year's killings.

- Abhisit's denial of accountability by passing the blame on to his political opponents will eventually bring his downfall and that of the Democrat Party.

Parties warned against making too many

Parties warned against making too many

By The Nation
Published on June 23, 2011

Big Businessmen and academics have warned political parties against making "unreasonable" election promises such as vowing to hike the minimum daily wage, saying such moves would cause inflation, boost the price of commodities and increase the cost of living.

At a press conference held yesterday at the Federation of Thai Industries, deputy FTI chairman Thanit Sorat said high wages would endanger the entire economic system, trigger a further pay rise for officials, boost the price of farm products and cut exports due to higher operating costs.

Citing an FTI calculation, he said the minimum wage should be no more than Bt220, especially since the last raise was 10 per cent, which set the minimum daily wage at Bt215.

Assoc Prof Siriphan Noksuan, from Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science, said the government had failed to prevent conglomerates from monopolising businesses, and wages should be increased in line with the price of goods.

"In the US, an egg is priced at around Bt3.50, but they go for between Bt5 and Bt7 in Thailand. Why is that? No political parties seem to show any interest in solving this problem or including this issue in their election promises," she said.

She called on political parties to say how they would improve vocational and other career skills, such as fluency in English, so Thais can compete with other workers in the region.

So far, not a single party had said how it would prepare Thailand for the launch of the Asean Economic Community in 2015, which would see workers migrating to the Kingdom from across the region, she said.

Meanwhile, chief of the Foundation for Consumers, Saree Ongsomwang, said offering high wages to workers could be seen as "buying votes", especially since politicians don't seem to care about poor services in the socialsecurity system.

Parties pandering to voters

Parties pandering to voters

By Pongphon Sarnsamak
The Nation
Published on June 23, 2011

The National Health Commission (NHC) has criticised all political parties over their public policies, saying their impact would be negative and they would do nothing to eradicate inequality in society.

The NHC condemned policies based on promotional marketing strategies it said were aimed at attracting voters with free public services with no concern for the sustainability of the country's budget.

"All political parties still think that Thai people are just waiting for someone to give them money - [and so] their public policies do not eliminate inequality and conflict in society," NHC secretarygeneral Dr Amphon Jindawattana said yesterday.

Speaking at a roundtable discussion titled "How Can Political Parties' Policies Aim Their Priorities at Public WellBeing?" Amphon said party policies had never implemented best practice, especially those aimed at decentralising central authority to local administrations.

"This is a big issue that would resolve not only public health issues but also other problems in the community," he said. In the past local authorities had great difficulty in asking the central government to allocate budgets to resolve problems in their communities.

"Political parties did not want to get involved in any conflicting issues. They would rather keep quiet," he said.

Dr Piya Hanvorawongchai of Chulalongkorn University's faculty of medicine said party policies were not designed to resolve public health problems such as decentralisation of government power; public and local authority participation; the Public Health Ministry's domination of public health direction; medicalpersonnel management; and the relationship between patients and medical workers.

"Some political parties just copy public policy from the Constitution," he said.

Moreover, they did not give priority to prevention of noncommunicable illness such as diabetes, heart disease and high blood pressure.

Former National Reform Committee secretary Dejrat Sukkamnerd said no political party would give an assurance that it would comply with the Constitution's Article 67 (2), requiring state agencies and private companies to conduct environmental and health impact assessments on potentially harmful projects.

"The country cannot step forward if political parties do not come up with clear answers on this mechanism," he said.

Dejrat said that when looking at political parties' policies overall, he found they all considered voters as customers, not citizens.

Shan activists cautious about anticipated Thai poll results

Wednesday, 22 June 2011 11:49
S.H.A.N.

As general elections in Thailand on 3 July draw near, SHAN is finding Shan activist movements both inside and on the border of the kingdom reluctant to comment about what will happen after the opposition Pheu Thai, short of miracle, becomes the ruling party.


Logo Pheu Thai Party

Pheu Thai is the offshoot of Thai Rak Thai and People’s Power, both of which were deregistered. The party’s de facto leader is multibillionaire Thaksin Shinawatra who is living in exile since his government was ousted by a military coup in 2006. “We have nothing to say about what’s happening in Thailand,” said Maj Lao Hseng, spokesman for the Restoration Council of Shan State/ Shan State Army (RCSS / SSA), better known as the SSA “South”, to differentiate it from another SSA (SSA “North”) that has recently returned to the armed struggle after the offensive by the Burma Army on 13 March broke the ceasefire pact concluded in 1989. “That is definitely not our policy.”

The SSA “South” was pushed out of at least 3 of its border bases during Thaksin’s tenure, 2001-2006. One of them took place during the month long siege by the joint Burma Army-United Wa State Army forces in March-April 2005.


Logo Democrat Party

The SSA “South” leader Sao Yawdserk, in fact, had only kind words for Thaksin. “In my experience, he’s the only Thailleader who has really tried hard for the rights of us non-Burmans,” he told SHAN during a meeting on 14 February 2006 at his base in Loi Taileng, opposite Maehongson. “While others were calling only for democracy and human rights, he had homed in on the rights of the non-Burmans.” Other activists were just as guarded. “I don’t think it is appropriate to say anything at this time,” one well known environmentalist said in response to SHAN query. “It’s obvious we’ll have to make the best deal we can with whichever party that comes into power, whether it be Pheu Thai, Democrat or other parties,” added a female rights advocate.

The Shan migrant workers, in the meanwhile, give a more positive response to SHAN’s questions. “During the Thaksin administration, we had lots of jobs to do and we could send enough money back to our families (in Burma’s Shan State),” said one. “Now we barely have enough even to survive. We hope with the return of his party to power, things will get better.”

There are at least 3 million migrant workers in Thailand, according to conservative figures, the majority of whom are thought to be Shans.

Originally Posted by Calgary

Abhisit's major flaw is that he is surrounded by the people at the top of pyramid in Thai society, hence he could not connect with the grassroots (ahem, riceroots) people.

Abhisit is merely another example in a long history of Dem failed campaign strategy. They have failed to recognize an inconvenient truth embodied in politics 101. To win elections one must gain the trust and support of the electorate no matter how good the policies and programs of the party. They have failed miserably to do so in the North and Northeast where as Thaksin's strategy has proven highly successful.

The solution sits right before their eyes but the Dems continue a march of folly proven to result in failure. They want to win elections, they must do as Thaksin did but better. This will never be done by parachuting in during the election campaign, waving party banners and kissing babies.

It will take a concerted full time effort to build a rice roots political machine capable of getting out the vote. Crucially important, Dem leadership must get out of their ivory tower in Bangkok and mingle with the peasantry. Dems have had years to do this but clearly they ignorantly don't recognize the need or they simply are incapable of getting their feet dirty slogging around in an Isaan rice paddy.

Bangkok Post : Vote buying 'getting more sophisticated'

Vote buying 'getting more sophisticated'

• Published: 23/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Thai politics has never evolved beyond vote buying and during the run-up to the July 3 election, it has become more sophisticated and rampant than ever, speakers at a seminar said yesterday.

Former public health minister Phra Rakkiart Rakkitathammo (known as Rakkiat Sukthana before entering the monkhood) said parties had become wiser about buying votes to avoid detection and they would pull out all the stops in their effort to win as many seats as possible.

Phra Rakkiart said that some parties had promised to pay their supporters for voting for them if they won the most seats in an area.

He said the tactic was not dissimilar to giving away money to voters during an election campaign.

The former public health minister entered the monkhood after he was freed from jail on parole in 2009 after serving nearly five years.

In 2003, the Supreme Court found Mr Rakkiat guilty of amassing unusual wealth and ordered the seizure of 234 million baht worth of assets from him.

The former minister was also convicted of taking a 5 million baht bribe from a pharmaceutical company. He was sentenced to 15 years in jail. He began serving his term in late 2004 after a year in hiding.

Phra Rakkiart yesterday spoke at the "An Exposure of Election Fraud" seminar held at Ramkhamhaeng University.

As a former politician from Udon Thani where vote buying is reportedly rampant, Phra Rakkiart said during the present election campaign canvassers for some MP candidates had adopted a new vote-buying tactic.

"Canvassers sell [candidate] lottery tickets to voters and offer them a big reward if their candidates win in the election," he said."Furthermore the voters are promised a bigger prize if they vote for the party list and the party wins the most list seats."

"This election will be the dirtiest in history," Phra Rakkiart said, adding that election fraud was ingrained in Thai politics and difficult to stamp out.

Based on his experience from earlier campaigns, election committee members in many districts were under the influence of local influential figures.

Some had produced fake ballot papers and circulated them among voters.

Voters get about 1,000 baht each if they use fake ballots to vote for a candidate backed by local influential figures.

Somchai Srisudhiyakorn, director of Sripathum University's Policy Watch Centre, said election fraud was taking place even before the House dissolution.

Mr Somchai said several political parties had organised sightseeing trips for their canvassers to help them drum up support during the campaign. Parties had transferred state officials under their command so they could help canvass for their parties.

"Big political parties don't want to buy votes because if they are found guilty, their parties can be dissolved," he said. "But candidates in each constituency will do it on their own because they think it's a worthwhile investment."

Bangkok Post : Reconciliation's not so simple

THINK BOX

Reconciliation's not so simple

• Published: 23/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: Life

There is supposedly something in it for the poll contestants who parade reconciliation as their motto.

If you'll excuse me, this kiss-and-make-up bravado has been a growing imposition backing up my oesophagus.

The talk about reconciliation from the mouths of politicians should be taken with plenty of salt. It keeps me wondering just how far-gone we are in flirting with the illusion that nirvana is waiting at the end of the reconciliation tunnel.

So far, there is not a single whimper from Major General S on how he intends to forge samanachan. Please feel free to fill us in on the grand scheme with the happy-ever-after ending.

Maj Gen S wants to be the proud host of a reconciliation banquet but no one is turning up at the table.

Maybe the guests are waiting to hear the menu first. Maj Gen S has is cooking up a generous portion of amnesty with peace on the side. He has issued a gentle warning there could be war if anyone fails to RSVP the invitation.

This is one of those occasions when the guests need to see how the major general plans to dish up the delicacies on the menu, every step of the way.

It is incumbent on the major general that he fleshes out in black and white the processes of immaterialising reconciliation. He should avoid making himself look as though he is coming into the room with a bag of tricks and could pull reconciliation out of the hat.

In fact, some people are lukewarm to the reconciliation idea thinking the hard sell might serve merely to satisfy the major general's own appetite for premiership. They feel that sincerity is sorely lacking, first and foremost, in a political quest to make amends.

But could we succeed in pushing through reconciliation even if we tried?

Elements that are parties to the conflicts in society are so far apart in their ideological spectrums that reconciling could tear down the principle they said they were fighting for.

If amnesty is to pardon political offenders across the board, the yellow shirts shouldn't be too happy because it will bring home the former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the popular campaign for whose ouster had given rise to the alliance.

Talking to Thaksin to curb the red shirts will likely ring hollow. The mass movement is heavily segmented and there is no telling if Thaksin is the commanding voice with the last say on the red shirts unified direction anymore.

Should the major general's banquet fall flat, there is another tea party to fall back on which could give reconciliation a chance. This party will precede the wedding bash of the eldest daughter of the exiled boss being planned towards the end of the year.

Some rather mean souls have even suggested that the wedding is a tactically orchestrated means to pull off the reconciliation ends that play into the hands of the boss who has repeated his plea to come home.

The plea will reverberate even harder for a father who simply asks for nothing more than to see his daughter walk down the aisle. That will surely quench every sympathy drop from the soft-hearted Thais.

However, this "come home" opens up the probability of an amnesty being secured for the boss and other political offenders. Is this plausible or even sensible? Well, its a 46-billion-baht question considering how the boss might get a refund lock, stock on barrel of the money he lost in the shareholding court case if he is given an amnesty.

But an amnesty doesn't grow on trees. For all the practical reasons, it requires multilateral efforts to realise. If the boss's party wins big in the election and heads the next government, it will be tempted to sponsor a gathering of people in the know to move the amnesty idea along, make draft legislation of it and put a parliamentary stamp of approval on it.

The gathering will be just another tea party designed for members' chitchat at the taxpayers' expense. Ultimately, the beneficiaries of the amnesty are the politicians who will, as a result, be excused of their political crimes and we will be under the threat of renewed instability in the country if we don't keep them satisfied.

And if were not careful, we will be fooled by the propagandistic fervour that amnesty holds the key to reconciliation. It does not. It is condescending as it is pretentious to attempt to reconcile in order to condone the wrong.

Please, reconciliation is too good to be vulgarised like that.

Kamolwat Praprutitum is assistant news editor of The Bangkok Post.

Big news check out the Independent and the Times websites. The Times you only get the headlines, the Independent a story but slightly watered down. The censors are going to be working over time up till the election. Wow!!

^ Yes, but can't post any of it here, not even links....sadly.

Bangkok Post : Udon's red lustre fades

Udon's red lustre fades

SPECIAL REPORT: Pheu Thai could lose up to four seats to rivals, despite heavy UDD presence

• Published: 23/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Udon Thani is widely regarded as the capital of the red-shirt movement, but political observers predict that Pheu Thai Party may not win all the House seats in the province.

The flagship party of the red-shirt movement could lose four seats to its rivals, the Democrat and Bhumjaithai parties.

Pheu Thai has been relying on Kwanchai Praipana, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship's provincial leader, to improve the prospects of the party's candidates in the province by highlighting the connection between Pheu Thai and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr Kwanchai predicted the party would sweep all nine constituency seats.

He admitted, though, that he was worried about Constituency 8, where the Pheu Thai candidate had not been visiting area voters enough.

But as of late, the candidate has changed his canvassing strategy.

"Some rival parties have also tried to win voter support by giving away money," Mr Kwanchai said.

"This is the capital of red-shirt people. No other party will win any seat as long as I am here. During the last phase of the campaign, I'll drum up Thaksin fever again."

But some observers have said that Democrat and the Bhumjaithai Party candidates could win three to four seats in the province.

Democrat candidates have a good chance to win seats in Constituencies 4 and 8.

In Constituency 4, deputy education minister Chaiyot Chiramethakorn, a Democrat, has been elected an MP in several times.

In Constituency 8, former deputy transport minister and Democrat Choksaman Leelawonga was once elected as senator in the province.

In Constituency 6, Uthai Saenkaeo, a former red-shirt leader and younger brother of former deputy agriculture minister Theerachai Saenkaeo, is running under the Bhumjaithai Party banner, but he faces stiff competition from Pheu Thai candidate Kiat-udom Menasawat, a former MP.

In Constituency 3, Pheu Thai's Phen-anan Sriphan is in a tough race with Rang Thuraphon, a veteran local politician from the Bhumjaithai Party.

Mr Chaiyot said he was confident the Democrat Party would win at least the seats in Constituency 4 and Constituency 8. He is now focussing his efforts on visiting constituents in up to eight areas a day.

He expects to visit all 220 villages in his constituency by election day.