Thread: Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

Thai army flexes muscles ahead of election

May 1, 2011

'The army is more and more out of control and beholden to itself and itself alone.' Bangkok and Phnom Penh have blamed each other for starting the fighting, which has left at least 16 people dead and has caused tens of thousands of civilians to flee their homes. -- PHOTO: REUTERS


BANGKOK - WITH elections looming, Thailand's army is putting on a show of strength that has added to uncertainty about whether the vote will actually go ahead in the politically divided nation, experts say.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who is shortly expected to call an election to be held by early July, has insisted that a deadly border conflict between the Thai and Cambodian armies will not derail the poll.

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls. 'There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election,' said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

'The army is more and more out of control and beholden to itself and itself alone.' Bangkok and Phnom Penh have blamed each other for starting the fighting, which has left at least 16 people dead and has caused tens of thousands of civilians to flee their homes.

Regardless of the exact origin of the latest clashes, some observers believe the conflict could boost support for Abhisit's Democrat Party, while also increasing the influence of the military. The dispute 'gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight,' said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of South-east Asian Studies in Singapore. -- AFP

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Bangkok Post : PM: Fighting won

Originally Posted by AFP

'The army is more and more out of control and beholden to itself and itself alone.'

no direct source this is attributed to , which is quite possibly very smart .

doesn't make the statement any less real though .

Originally Posted by Mid

Originally Posted by AFP

'The army is more and more out of control and beholden to itself and itself alone.'

no direct source this is attributed to , which is quite possibly very smart .

doesn't make the statement any less real though .

I took it to be a continuation of quoting Chris Baker, but agree the layout/punctuation make it less than 100% certain.

Originally Posted by thegent

Evolution not revolution but in a land without principle or doctrine what's the point?

because the abyss of feudalism isn't a viable alternative .

But Mid, it's the status quo.

and where does it state that it (the status quo) must be maintained ?

Originally Posted by SteveCM

some observers believe the conflict could boost support for Abhisit's Democrat Party

They are totally wrong.

Originally Posted by Mid

and where does it state that it (the status quo) must be maintained ?

But that's the whole point here. With no fulcrum within Thai society upon which they could lever the Establishment into change the status quo will remain immutable. The question of should, must or could is really quite irrelevant, there won't be any change because at present there is no dynamic threatening the army and without a popular movement bound by a coherent manifesto there is nothing to usurp their strength.

Relying on " cometh the hour, cometh the man " to change the status quo is quite hopeless without a doctrine to champion, without which likely leaders giving inspiration soon descend into demagoguery a la Thaksin.

The Thai are unique but there has to be a critical development before matters can progress and this forum is certainly no place to discuss that.

The situation is medieval.

Originally Posted by thegent

The situation is medieval.

it's medieval, that's exactly it

House will decide on next PM: Abhisit

House will decide on next PM: Abhisit

By The Nation
Published on May 2, 2011


MPs could end up picking the next leader if ballot is unclear, premier says

In his last weekly TV programme before Parliament is dissolved, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday dropped just one hint on Thailand's future political course that could make Thaksin Shinawatra worried sick - post-election power would belong to the person who manages to gather the most support from MPs.

Abhisit's comment that the choice of the next prime minister would rest with the majority of MPs, as no handy formula exists to pick the head of government, underlines the importance of smaller parties while the ruling Democrats and opposition Pheu Thai Party head for what looks to be a close election race.

'Elected by peer vote'

"The next prime minister will be elected by a peer vote in the House," he said in an argument he has been using to defend his government's legitimacy throughout the uprising of the red shirts, who form the support base for Thaksin and his Pheu Thai Party.

Pledging a fair election and clean campaign, Abhisit said the government camp would not abuse it power over the state budget during the crucial run-up to the poll. But while he drew no personal conclusion on whether the party winning the most votes or the one with majority House support should have the right to name the prime minister, he did point out what the charter says.

According to Abhisit, charter provisions were clear on the issue - the House has to cast votes on a prime minister tasked with forming a government.

In the past, a winning party might have formed the government, he said, explaining that the rules under the Constitution had changed to require the House vote to entrust the designated prime minister with government formation.

Some past governments had come into existence by a coalition deal forged by party leaders but this could no longer be the case, he said.

Under Thai political precedent, the party with a majority vote would have the first chance at forming the government, he said.

The government's formation was a step to be taken only after the House voted on the prime minister, he said.

The composition of the next government would emerge only after knowing who its leader would be and it was very difficult to anticipate the will of the 500 newly-elected MPs, he said.

Abhisit was speaking with a slight advantage, as the opposition Pheu Thai Party has yet to come up with an official candidate to challenge him. How members of the new House of Representatives react to Pheu Thai's final choice for prime minister could sway the outcome. A poor choice, or one that stirs up factional trouble within Pheu Thai, could boost Abhisit's leverage, especially if the balloting does not produce a landslide winner.

Abhisit urged the media to closely monitor and report on the actual campaigning and the platforms of the various parties instead of speculating on scenarios ahead of time.

In regard to concern that small parties might dominate the naming of the prime minister in case of a split vote, he said the aspirations of the 500 MPs would chart the political landscape.

"Anything is possible if MPs from major parties decide to vote with their counterparts from small parties," he said.

'Winning party should form govt'

Pheu Thai Party spokesman Prompong Nopparit said the winning party should have the mandate to form the next government, not the party that can muster majority support in the House, as Abhisit claims.

Abhisit and faction leader Newin Chidchob of Bhum Jai Thai Party might be trying to cling to power by denying Pheu Thai a victory, he said.

Pheu Thai MP Preecha Rengsomboonsuk said he believed Newin was destined for the opposition bench because every opinion survey shows popular sentiment in favour of Pheu Thai.

There was no justification in speculating that Pheu Thai would be denied a chance to lead the next government, he said.

Democrat Party spokesman Buranaj Smutharaks said his party leader Abhisit would fully cooperate with the Election Commission to bring about a free and fair poll. Candidates should not try to invoke the monarchy in their campaign speeches, he said.

Mingkwan, Chavalit's men to stay with Pheu Thai

Mingkwan, Chavalit's men to stay with Pheu Thai

By The Nation
Published on May 2, 2011

The Pheu Thai Party said yesterday that its party-list MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan and the close aides of former party chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh would stay with the opposition party.

Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said yesterday the party leaders informed him that the Mingkwan and Chavalit factions will join the party meeting this week.

Pheu Thai would also be welcoming MPs from two to three parties including the Democrats as its members. They will formally announce their decisions from May 7-9 after the House is dissolved, he said.

Pheu Thai will hold a seminar to organise its MP slate for both constituency and proportionate voting. It will also appoint a secretary-general and deputy leaders after some deputy leaders stepped down.

Sources said that over the past week, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's string puller, tried to call Mingkwan and his supporters to persuade them not to desert the party but failed to get in touch with them.

Thaksin then asked one of party's senior figures to visit Mingkwan's home and they were able to clear up misunderstandings and differences, so Mingkwan and his followers decided to remain with Pheu Thai.

Bangkok Post : Abhisit way out in front of Yingluck

OPINION POLL

Abhisit way out in front of Yingluck

• Published: 2/05/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has outperformed Yingluck Shinawatra in 17 of 18 criteria in an opinion poll to rate the country's next leader.



Mr Abhisit was beaten by Ms Yingluck, one of Pheu Thai Party's would-be candidates for the premiership and the younger sister of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in one area _ wealth and business achievements.

The Democrat leader outperformed Ms Yingluck in temper control (53.7%-9.7% ), politeness (50.1%-13%), domestic and international recognition (49.6%- 11.3%), good conduct (49.6%- 9.8%), kindness (48.2%-13.1%), leadership (48.1%-12.9%), ability (47.9%-10.9%), political ethics (46.9%-11%), vision (46.8%- 15.2%), sacrifice for the country (44%-11.9%), honesty (42.9%- 10.3%), fairness (41.4%-10.6%), decisiveness (40.1%-19%) and problem-solving (38.8%-14.3%).

The respondents were also asked to give their views on the recent fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border.

The vast majority of respondents to the survey, 98.1%, expressed their concern for the safety of border residents and 97.7% gave their moral support to Thai troops at the border.

The survey, carried out by the Abac Poll at the Assumption University between April 23 and 30, surveyed 1,764 people in Bangkok and 16 other provinces in all regions.

Bangkok Post : Govt enters final week

Govt enters final week

House likely to end on Friday; poll on June 26

• Published: 2/05/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

The government has only a few days left in office, with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva confirming he will call a House dissolution on Friday.



The last cabinet meeting will be held tomorrow, and the general election is expected to be held on June 26.

Mr Abhisit gave the confirmation at the Bang Sue subway station while inspecting a project to construct the Red Line electric train line.

A government source said Mr Abhisit told cabinet recently that he would submit a royal decree to dissolve the House for royal endorsement today.

The House dissolution is expected on Friday and tomorrow's cabinet meeting will be the last.

Mr Abhisit said the government will not take the opportunity to rush through and approve mega projects.

Mr Abhisit met the Election Commission recently to discuss the election. It was tentatively agreed that the election will be held on June 26.

Mr Abhisit said the election will proceed regardless of the border spat with Cambodia, as the army was now able to control the situation.

Earlier in the day, Mr Abhisit told his weekly television broadcast that tomorrow's cabinet will approve any pressing matters left on the agenda.

After the House is dissolved, the government will become a caretaker one and it no longer has the authority to approve any projects.

However, Mr Abhisit said the cabinet will not take the opportunity to approve any projects in a shady or dubious manner, without consent from concerned agencies.

Mr Abhisit said he will meet the EC again today to discuss election arrangements.

Mr Abhisit said the cabinet had resolved that posters and billboards showing government politicians will be taken down and advertising spots publicising the government's projects will be stopped.

This was intended to show that the government is sincere about not gaining an edge over its rivals, he said.

Mr Abhisit also urged the media to allot equal time to all sides to talk to the people.

<snip>

Mr Abhisit denied that he was given "notice" by his wife to quit politics, although he admitted that she wanted him to do so.

The prime minister said he had been under duress since he took office as prime minister.

"But I gave my family one promise. I would never take problems from work back home," he said.

<snip>

Mr Abhisit insisted his decision to call an early House dissolution would benefit the country.

He said he became prime minister when the political situation was not normal.

He had always made it clear that he did not want to remain in office until the end of his term, but was willing to step down when politics and the economy returned to normal.

Pheu Thai is ready to contest the election, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra told a gathering of Pheu Thai members and United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship supporters in Ayutthaya last night.

Speaking by videolink, he said key Pheu Thai policies included raising the minimum wage to 300 baht a day, and revoking the Democrat-led government's rice price guarantee policy.

Pheu Thai would bring back the rice mortgage scheme instead.

Pheu Thai, if it took office, would wipe out illegal drugs within 12 months.

"If Pheu Thai becomes government, every village in the country will benefit. The village fund will be doubled to two million baht," said Thaksin.

Meanwhile, Newin Chidchob, a power broker of the coalition Bhumjaithai Party, admitted both Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai have similar policies.

However, he insisted Bhumjaithai was not considered an underdog in the race.

Interesting....

"Meanwhile, Newin Chidchob, a power broker of the coalition Bhumjaithai Party, admitted both Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai have similar policies."

Going fishing? Thinking of changing sides again?

^
One of the few safe bets in Thai politics is that Newin never stops "Thinking of changing sides again". When has he ever stopped playing both ends against the middle to make sure that he's on the winning side?

Thai-ASEAN News Network

Constitution Court Deliberates on Organic Election Laws Today

UPDATE : 2 May 2011

The Constitution Court will today deliberate on the three organic election laws passed by Parliament last week. It is expected that the process will take all day today and maybe parts of tomorrow. However, if the bills are found to be constitutional, they will be passed back to the EC and forwarded to the government. It is expected that the prime minister can submit a formal request for Parliament dissolution to His Majesty the King on May 4 and could officially dissolve the House on May 6 or 7 by the latest.

Thai PM set to dissolve parliament, poll date unclear | Reuters

BANGKOK | Mon May 2, 2011 11:33am BST

(Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Monday he wanted to dissolve parliament this week, as planned, but he declined to be drawn on an election date despite a report the vote would probably be on June 26.

The Constitutional Court threw some doubt on the timeframe for an election, that it is hoped will end years of polarized politics that has led to outbreaks of violence, by delaying a decision on the legality of new electoral laws.

The poll will be his first test of support after his coalition government came to power in late 2008 in a parliamentary vote the opposition said was arranged by the military, which intensified a political crisis.

Pressed by reporters, Abhisit said parliament would be dissolved before May 7, when he is scheduled to join a summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Indonesia. He has been saying since March that he would dissolve the house by the first week of May.

Asked about talk that he would submit the dissolution bill on May 4 for royal endorsement, he replied: "When it comes, you'll know about it."

"However, we have to wait for the process with the Constitutional Court to be done and there are other administrative processes to finish."

The Constitutional Court said in a statement it had given the prime minister, the speaker of parliament and the Electoral Commission until Friday, May 6, to present more opinions, and it did not comment on the legality of the laws.

That throws some doubt on whether parliament will in fact be dissolved this week.

A source at the court said it may rule on May 9.

An election has to be held on a Sunday, 45 to 60 days after parliament is dissolved. If the king approves dissolution this week, the vote could be on June 19, June 26 or July 3. Those dates would still hold if dissolution was only delayed a few days.

The Bangkok Post reported on Monday that Abhisit recently met the Election Commission. "It was tentatively agreed that the election will be on June 26," the daily said.

<snip>

(Reporting by Khettiya Jittapong and Chatrudee Kittisuksatit; Writing by Ambika Ahuja and Alan Raybould; Editing by Robert Birsel)

Bhum Jai Thai backs Chaovarat for PM

Bhum Jai Thai backs Chaovarat for PM

By The Nation
Published on May 3, 2011

The Bhum Jai Thai Party proposes its leader Chaovarat Chanveerakul as the next prime minister, House Speaker Chai Chidchob said yesterday.

Chai, father of Bhum Jai Thai's de facto leader Newin Chidchob, said all the leaders of political parties had the desire to be the top administrator.

"Each party plans its policies to administrate the country. Bhum Jai Thai will also propose Chaovarat Chanveerakul be the prime minister," he said.

On the possibility of becoming prime minister, Chai said anything could happen. His party, which has aims to rank third in the upcoming election, might be the core to form the government.

"MR Kukrit Pramoj was the prime minister when his Social Action Party got only 18 parliamentary seats. What can you be sure of with Thai politics?" he said.

No party is willing to serve dutifully in opposition

OPINION »

THAI TALK
No party is willing to serve dutifully in opposition


By Suthichai Yoon
The Nation
Published on April 28, 2011



Now that we are on the verge of a new election, the important questions to ask are: Should a mediocre government be given a second chance? Does a failed opposition party deserve to be the next government?

To put it in another way: How do we know that a party that doesn't perform well as a government would do better if voted back in? And how do we know that a party that refuses to be a strong opposition can become a strong and effective government?Every political party, big or small, old or new, progressive or conservative, has campaigned with one common slogan: we will be part of the post-election government. None of them has come out to say that they will help make sure that the public has a strong opposition in Parliament.

None of them seems serious about telling the voters what they want to do for the public. Because of the lack of a real, informed debate about their respective policies, we still don't know the basic differences between the Democrats and Pheu Thai, the two main parties, except that they will both attempt to outdo each other in their populist platforms.

They also share another common policy: we are more loyal to the monarchy than the others.

Thaksin Shinawatra, the de facto "owner" of Pheu Thai, declared in his video link to the party's gathering last Saturday: "I am confident Pheu Thai will form the next government." And in a strange twist, he said: "If I can come back to Thailand, nobody could tamper with the monarchy." He also said if, after his return to the country, he proved to be disloyal, he would be willing to be lynched by the Thai public. But he didn't offer a chance for anyone to ask him whether his continued stay abroad would mean a different position over this issue.

Deputy Premier Suthep Thaugsuban of the Democrat Party was equally confident: "We will form the next government, that's for sure."

Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva also touched on the monarchy issue by saying he had asked the Election Commission to consider issuing a new set of rules to ban politicians from "using" the monarchy in the campaign. He was of course also suggesting that he and his party are perhaps more loyal to the highest institution than all the rest.

The small and medium-sized parties, too, have been telling everybody publicly that no matter how the ballot-casting exercise turns out, they will also be part of the government.

No politician in this country, it seems clear, is ready to serve in an effective opposition party. That certainly means that if they aren't in the government, they don't think they have a duty to perform. And that explains why Thailand's parliamentary democracy has gone nowhere from the outset.

They probably don't realise that when a voter casts a ballot for a certain MP of a certain party, the expectations aren't only for them to become Cabinet members. People want their representatives to be ready to serve both as a member of the powers-that-be and, perhaps, even more importantly, to be able to provide the checks and balances if they aren't part of the ruling elite.

The past few years have proved that a strong opposition is even more crucial than an effective government, especially when the ruling parties aren't in a position to drive their policies toward any clear direction. This has been true because of the political stalemate that has plagued the country since the yellow and red shirts took to the streets to force their demands on the rest of the country.

The various post-election scenarios suggest that a similar situation will re-emerge. The need for a strong, vibrant opposition party that can represent the dissident voices, the oppressed and downtrodden is no less important than an effective, honest and transparent government.

Therefore, my take is: Any party that isn't ready to serve as a true opposition force isn't qualified to be voted in as part of the next government.

Top court to check poll laws

Top court to check poll laws

By The Nation
Published on May 3, 2011

The Constitution Court has accepted the three amended election laws for review with a ruling expected next Monday, a source said yesterday.

Although an endorsement would come after the dissolution of the House of Representatives, expected by this weekend, the election would not be interrupted, the source said.

The court said in a statement that it had received the request for a constitutionality check from the Parliament president and asked the Parliament president, as well as the prime minister and the Election Commission chairman, to submit any documentation and explanations to the court by Friday.

The major change to the organic laws was in the mix of constituency and proportionate MPs. Directly elected MPs were reduced from 400 to 375 while party-list MPs were increased from 100 to 125 to conform with the recent amendment to the Constitution.

A Constitution Court source said the justices would meet to discuss the case on Monday and should give their approval or disapproval on the same day.

The justices needed time to study the amended laws in detail before deciding whether to clear them, the source said.

An early House dissolution would unlikely affect the laws as they had already been passed by Parliament, the source added.