Thread: Thailand Election 07

One man's take on the PPP leader:

can only suggest his history is given some study ........................

Aiming at personality, not resume, I'd imagine they're all dodgy.

Found this though. I wasn't far off the mark.

IHT

BANGKOK, Thailand: One is polite, Oxford-educated and movie-star handsome. The other is aging, acid-tongued and a veteran of rough and tumble politics.

One of these starkly contrasting men is likely to emerge as Thailand’s next prime minister after parliamentary elections Sunday, which will restore democracy after 15 months of military-led rule.

Samak Sundaravej, the 72-year-old veteran, is an ultra-right-winger who heads the People’s Power Party. His earthy, shoot-from-the hip style is popular with some in the working class, though less so with analysts and the media.

“Samak is acerbic, belligerent, polarizing and divisive,” says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “He is not very appealing.”

His opponent, Abhisit Vejjajiva, the 43-year-old head of the liberal Democrat Party, has other shortcomings. Born and educated in England, in the hallowed halls of Eton and Oxford, he is out of touch with regular people and downright boring, some experts say.

“He is well equipped on paper but he has not been able to connect to the grass roots,” Thitinan said. “He has not been able to widen and broaden his appeal to become a national candidate for prime minister.”

Most polls show that Samak’s People’s Power Party will win the most seats but fall short of a majority in the 480-seat parliament.

Typically, the leader of the winning party forms a government with coalition partners and takes the premiership. However, some experts see another likely scenario: smaller parties joining forces with the Democrats, paving the way for Abhisit to rise to the top post.

Samak is the torchbearer for Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire businessman who was ousted as prime minister in a bloodless coup in September 2006. He lives in self-imposed exile in London, in part because he would face corruption charges if he returned.

The People’s Power Party is made up mostly of Thaksin’s old supporters, though Samak himself is new to the Thaksin team.

“I don’t have to talk much about policies, because the whole country knows what the policies of our party are,” Samak said in an interview with The Associated Press.

As prime minister from 2001 to 2006, Thaksin launched programs to help Thailand’s poor rural areas, including low-interest loans, virtually free medical care and village development projects.

“Thaksin did good things for the country for five years and the whole country knows it,” Samak said.

Samak, known as a cat lover and passionate cook, carries some serious political baggage.

He is still remembered for allegedly stirring up right-wing mobs that killed leftist student activists in 1976. Now, he faces corruption charges related to the purchase of fire trucks and bidding on a sewage project during his term as Bangkok mayor.

His opponent has been a shining star since he entered politics at the age of 27. He moves among the Thai elite and counts among his favorite books, the “Myth of Sisyphus” by French existential novelist Albert Camus.

Abhisit says he is the right choice after years of polarized politics. He pledges to boost the economy, provide free education, quell violence in the insurgency-wracked south and root out government corruption.

“The choice Thai voters have is very clear,” Abhisit said. “By electing a new, fresh, honest government that puts the people first, money will finally go to improving peoples lives — not to the pockets of the powerful.”

There is no love lost between the two candidates. Deeming him too young to lead, Samak likens his rival to an “unripe mango.” Retorts Abhisit, Samak is “expired medicine.”

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Samak ... is popular with some in the working class, though less so with analysts and the media.

As I watched the returns last night, the distaste on the faces of the commentators was clear. They were nothing like the same excited, jovial bunch making predictions the previous night. As my wife explained, they were discounting PPPs win and doubted its ability to form a coalition. Sad lot.

He is still remembered for allegedly stirring up right-wing mobs that killed leftist student activists in 1976

not much more to say .................

Same old same old then. Whether the Dem's would have actually been any different is questionable anyway. The falang should not expect any concessions at all from this populist government.

Putting a positive spin on things, this is a victory in voting terms for the rural poor over the educated Bangkok elites- and they resent it. Any future election campaign is going to have to take into account rural concerns, and court their votes. Issaan now carries the balance of power in thai politics. Thats not a bad thing.

........ meanwhile back to the present ,

When they seized power, the generals said they were doing so in the name of democracy and promised to return the country to civilian rule. But they produced a new Constitution that weakened democratic institutions and shifted power from the executive branch while guaranteeing the influence of the military.

Under an internal security law adopted last week, the military will have the power to intervene in the political process without consultation with the civilian government.

Last August, as the law was being drafted, Human Rights Watch, which is based in New York, branded it “a silent coup.”

cite

all that's sure is further political instability in the immediate future .

Have any of these populist policies actually been paid for yet?
Where will the money come from?
what happens when there is non.

For instance I thought that the 30baht medical scheme while good in principle was not being funded and that hospitals were racking up huge debts.

Works for w a while but how is it sustainable.

Does anyone have any information on the funding of these schemes?

The last 2 years of Thickskins spending spree tapered off drastically - as the cash dried up.

^
Decided to have a look see for myself.
There is this one from the BMJ in 2004

http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmand...th-reforms.pdf


"The Thai policy is a bold reform driven by top level political imperatives and incorporating many innovative features. However, the approach has carried with it many problematic side effects, including driving major reforms in healthcare delivery through changing financing mechanisms. A continued emphasis on monitoring, evaluation, and research will be vital in fine tuning the reforms. Major revisions may need to be considered if the policy is to survive. These include allowing greater patient choice, providing greater opportunity for private sector participation and competition in urban areas, strengthening further the rural district health system with adequate clinical staff, protecting key national functions such as teaching and research, and expanding the sources of finance beyond general taxation."

It's a wait-and-see if fight goes to the streets
Published on December 24, 2007


Division has emerged in the anti-Thaksin Shinawatra People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). Three prominent members expressed reservations about protests against the People Power Party, if it forms the next government.

PAD leaders Pipop Thongchai and Suriyasai Katasila earlier threatened mass demonstrations if People Power won the government benches, and grant amnesty to 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives as well as dismiss corruption allegations against Thaksin.

"We will first have to see the situation. The PAD shouldn't start holding protests," said Rosana Tositrakul, an alliance member vocal in her past denunciations of Thaksin.

"We don't need to protest all the time. It might be good Thaksin returns so he can appear in court," said Rosana.

People Power leader Samak Sundaravej insists Thaksin will return home and former Thai Rak Thai executives will have their electoral bans lifted.

snip

nationmultimedia.com


..............................................



Meeting to form a government cancelled
December 24, 2007 : Last updated 10:47 am

A meeting to be hosted by election winner; People Power Party, with smaller parties, to form a government is cancelled on Monday.

A source told reporters on Sunday that PPP leader Samak Sundaravej would meet smaller parties at a Bangkok hotel at 10am to discuss formation of coalition government.

However Samak is still at home at 10.30am Monday.

A hotel staff said in a telephone interview that the party already cancelled a room booking this morning.

nationmultimedia.com

Here is another article on the schemes financing from TDRI - Thailand Development Research Institute

http://www.tdri.or.th/library/quarterly/text/s05_2.pdf

I don't think the politco's have given any thought to how they will fund election promises.

agreed ,

however much to my pleasant surprise I did see an article suggesting the grass roots folk WERE asking that very question .

Originally Posted by sabang

Putting a positive spin on things, this is a victory in voting terms for the rural poor over the educated Bangkok elites

I htink you will find that the rural poor are the biggest losers, regardless. Samak & co couldn't care less about the poor - once the election is over.

^ None of them can.
My point is, they need their votes. I hope the people of Isaan are becoming aware of this. To get their votes, show me waddya gonna do for me. To keep their votes, deliver on some of it.

Originally Posted by sabang

To get their votes, show me waddya gonna do for me. To keep their votes, deliver on some of it.

Ummm... Sounds like same as UK, US and the rest!

^^

that's the rub ain't it ,

how can we ask the great unwashed to respect the electoral process when their vote is so easily overturned if deemed unacceptable to the elites ?

^ yeah, diff'nt thread ...

I don't know why anyone would think PPP won't come through on their promises if they're merely a reincarnation of TRT. Thaksin and his boys certainly made a positive change in Nong Khai. Roads, schools, literally eradicated a big yaba problem, reduced tuition, opened trade schools etc etc. I wasn't living in Thailand then, but to listen to wife and her friends/family, life was much better then than now.

Thailand's future, economic, and political, lies in decisions that are taken this week.

Will HMK make his views on the return of Thaksin known or will he take a back seat? The people have decided and this election is a slap in the face for anyone who supported the coup. Anyone. The King must be the saddest man in Thailand just now.

There is a slim chance that the Democrats could form a government with support from the minority parties. It would essentially be an "anti-Thaksin Loyalist" party whilst the PPP would be the pro-Thaksin republican party. If the Democrats fail then we all know where this is leading.

The problem as I see it is that minority parties, especially Chart Thai, will have a disproportionate say in events post election. Knowing how bargaining and brinkmanship work here we are facing another election within a year as the coalition falls apart with parties facing each-other down.

What we will not have is economic stability

^ How do you, personally, see the future in Thailand?

Originally Posted by Thormaturge

What we will not have is economic stability

Agree. No matter how it sorts out the government will be a weak coalition which is never good for stability in any area. Except for Thaksin's TRT, Thai political parties have a history of staying in power about as long as the life of a mayfly.

^^
Personally I see a distant future where President Thaksin presides over a country that is poorer than Laos after he has sucked all the money out.

^ Agreed.

Originally Posted by chinthee

Yes, I just commented on the Thaksin come back thread about the potential PPP win. Guess the 2nd coup theories will now pick up speed big time.

I disagree. This win of the PPP will realign the goals of the Bush administration and bring about more peace and democracy to Thailand, along with a closer inching to a Free Trade Agreement with the United States, which will be good for both Thailand and America.

Originally Posted by Told Stool

This win of the PPP will realign the goals of the Bush administration and bring about more peace and democracy to Thailand,

Which "goals" would this be?
"More peace and democracy"? Seems the only region which needs more peace is the far South. What are the PPP's policies in this regard?