Some sobering facts, and thoughts. I lived for 12 years in HK, & have spent a considerable amount of time in both Taiwan & China.
The busiest international flight in the world, by a considerable margin of passenger numbers, is HK, China - Taipei. Has been for some years.
Many Taiwanese use HK (informally or not) as a convenient entrepot for onward travel to China- but Taipei/ Shanghai, & a couple of other eastern seaboard Chinese cities, are very big too. The traditional MO is they would invest in Chinese factories quite merrily, but legally base their investment out of HK, with it's old fashioned anglicisms like an impartial legal system, & the Rule of Law. When Money talks, Politics walks.
Investment links between Taiwan & China are already huge- although it is mostly one way, proceeding from Taiwan. Taiwanese were early FDI investors there, assisted no doubt by their Chinese ethnicity, culture & language.
- As China grows, so inevitably does it's international & regional clout. As the US recedes into it's shell, so does it's clout also- at the UN/ international community, but also economically. China is already a far bigger investor in the region than the US. They are even going to manufacture arnaments in Thailand- could you imagine that ever happening in the old, rapidly fading post WW2 unipolar world order?
- Unless something has drastically changed, the Taiwanese Do consider themselves Chinese- in fact they consider themselves the Real Chinese. Mainland China, you see, had it's traditional culture and traditions bastardised by the Cultural revolution, and other Maoism's (the number of times I heard that in Taiwan).
- But lets face it, China has changed a lot since Mao, and so has the World.
- Taiwan also hosts the worlds greatest collection of culturally significant Chinese antiquities & treasures, in the National museum, Taipei- a much underrated attraction, within a nation that is also a much underrated tourist attraction. Plundered by the retreating Nationalists- sure, Mao kept the buildings, but Chiang Kai Shek stole the family silver. Such things can make convenient pretexts, ie excuses, for ratcheting up the action when the time is considered right.
- Time, and geopolitical trends, quite obviously favor the Chinese in this regard. Surely that is obvious?
So my long term prognosis, I am afraid, does not favor Taiwan remaining independent from mainland China- although I doubt this will happen during the course of my lifetime, or immediately beyond. Taiwan would do well to arm itself, and not just rely on an aging 'Big Brother' to protect & guarantee it's territorial integrity- otherwise, it will be in a very weakened position to strike the best possible deal, whenever the time may come.
Perhaps HK and the SEZ relationship it has with the PRC might provide a reasonably enlightened model, looking toward the long term. But still carry a big stick, Taiwan. Otherwise you'll likely end up more like Tibet at the negotiating table.