Thread: Consideration given to Formation of Thai Government in Exile

Consideration given to Formation of Thai Government in Exile
LONDON, May 23, 2014

Following the declaration of an illegal military coup by the Army of Thailand on Thursday, Robert Amsterdam, counsel to former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the pro-democracy 'Red Shirt' movement, stated that active consideration is being given to the formation of a government in exile in the wake of the illegal seizure of power staged in Thailand by General Prayuth Chan-Ocha on May 22, 2014. Mr. Amsterdam reiterates that the actions of the Thai military junta lack all legitimacy and constitute flagrant violations of both Thai and international law. The only organization in Thailand with a popular and legal mandate to govern remains the Pheu Thai Party, on the strength of its clear victory in the last full general election of July 3, 2011.

"The military coup carried out by the Army of Thailand does not have any legitimacy nor does the Army of Thailand have a mandate from the people of Thailand to govern the country. Those who have the mandate of the people of Thailand, secured through free and fair elections, are now considering the formation of a government in exile," said Mr. Amsterdam.

Mr. Amsterdam also raised the question of the unlawful detentions of pro-democracy activists currently being rounded up by the junta stating that "I denounce the illegal detention of all political leaders in Thailand. Given the Army of Thailand's human rights record, we are extremely concerned for the safety of the political detainees, and we urge the international community to remain on high alert."

Mr Amsterdam also stated that a number of foreign governments have already expressed their willingness to host such a government in exile under internationally established rules and practice. He emphasised that the Army of Thailand has no legal authority to govern and has acted in violation of both local and international law.

"Make no mistake, this is an illegitimate military coup that must be penalized with the full strength of sanctions and diplomatic measures to ensure the safety and security of the Thai people," said Amsterdam

Robert Amsterdam serves as international counsel to the United National Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) of Thailand. More information can be read at Robert Amsterdam Thailand.

prnewswire.com

If foreign nations are serious about their condemnation why don't they freeze all Thai assets in their countries and sling out the Thai embassy staff if they go along with the coup?

Thailand coup: Ex-PMs Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra to establish government in exile, says lawyer
Peter Lloyd
24 May 2014

Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has revealed plans to set up a government in exile, in a direct challenge to the legitimacy of the military, following confirmation of a coup to remove the government-led by his presumed proxy and sister Yingluck Shinawatra.


Thaksin Shinawatra is negotiating with number of states which his lawyer says have made offers to host the government in exile.
(Credit: AFP)

Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has revealed plans to set up a government in exile, in a direct challenge to the legitimacy of the military, following confirmation of a coup to remove the government-led by his presumed proxy and sister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Peter Lloyd analysis

The declaration of a government in exile by Thaksin Shinawatra is the first significant political response by the Thaksin-aligned Red Shirt forces since Thursday's coup.

It appears to indicate a willingness to risk a major escalation in the long-running crisis. Pay close attention to the response of Thailand’s new strongman, General Prayuth Chan-ochab at today's news conference.

The General is an ardent defender of the monarchy and adversary of Thaksin after playing a key role in the 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin Shinawatra.

The General’s rise to Army Chief came after Thaksin's sister Yingluck rose to power as her brother's proxy.

Thaksin's power play could be a part of a strategy to rattle the General and the monarchy and draw armed supporters from the shadows.

A government in exile need do no more than exist to achieve its main purpose and that is to present to the world the stark choice facing Thailand; a return to a business as usual old order under the monarchy, or a new settlement that enshrines the rights of the poor.

The armed forces fear a violent reaction on the street soon but they are just as mindful that they lack the skills and perhaps even the will required to govern for long. History tells it that there is a window of opportunity.

"There's a script they will be following to one degree or another," said Duncan McCargo, professor of political science. "They know that the longer they stay in power the more trouble they are going to get into."

Professor McCargo is doubtful that the return to business as usual will satisfy the non-Bangkok Thai electorate which has been disenfranchised by a succession of coups against legitimate governments.

"Reform means dismantling the informal caste system, reducing psychological dependence on the monarchy and growing an appreciation for the capacity of the rural population to contribute to their democracy," he said.


The decision was relayed by Mr Thaksin's legal adviser, Robert Amsterdam, and revealed exclusively by the ABC.

The announcement comes amid reports that coup leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha will remain at the head of a junta beyond his scheduled retirement in September, according to the Bangkok Post. The junta has scheduled a media conference for Saturday.

General Prayuth has assumed the powers to act as prime minister; except Section 2, which acknowledges that the king is the head of state.

The military tightened its grip on Friday by banning more than 150 prominent figures from leaving the country, and threatening to arrest politicians who disobey its orders.

Former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra was among those who reported to the military junta.

It is understood Ms Yingluck and several former ministers now being detained plan to join the protester-led government.

A source in Ms Yingluck's Puea Thai party told AFP that the former prime minister's exact whereabouts were unknown.

"It is confirmed that she was detained by the military since she reported to the junta yesterday," the source, who was present when Ms Yingluck answered a call to report to the army on Friday, said.

"We are unsure of her whereabouts because the military confiscated her mobile phones and those of her aides."

Military officials say Ms Yingluck will not be held for longer than a week and have made assurances that she will be looked after.

"We provide them good facilities, perhaps even better than the facilities that I or everyone here [has] at the moment," a Thai military official said on Saturday. "Please do not worry."

Negotiations with nations to host exile government: Thaksin

Mr Thaksin is negotiating with number of states which Mr Amsterdam says have made offers to host the government in exile.

Proximity would imply a neighbour state like Cambodia could house the former leaders, but it could invite military retaliation and sanctions from an angry and humiliated Thailand.

Video: Thailand coup: a look at the Shinawatra family

It is unclear whether any Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) state would risk breaching the association's bedrock doctrine of non-interference to provide a political safe haven for Thaksin and Ms Yingluck.

It could bring down the political order and harmony of ASEAN, a dull but effective piece of architecture that has assisted socio-economic and political development in the region for decades.

Mr Amsterdam says so far there is no identifiable host state but it is believed by pro-government Red Shirts that there are a number of nations set to offer a safe place.

It is understood that the Shinawatra-led Red Shirts protest movement was anxious to make the government in exile decision public ahead of a widely anticipated statement from the Palace giving direct or veiled support of the monarchy to the military take-over. There has been no official statement as yet.

US issues non-essential travel warning

The US State Department has issued a travel alert advising against any non-essential travel to Thailand. Bangkok remains under military lockdown with a nightly 10pm curfew amid fears of a violent backlash.

The US has suspended about $3.8 million in military aid following the coup and is reviewing the rest of the approximately $11.4 million annual assistance package to Thailand.

"Several Thai military officers told me that they expect significant violent conflict in Bangkok with Red Shirt activists in the next two weeks," said Council on Foreign Relations analyst Joshua Kurlanzick in his latest blog report.

Meanwhile, about 200 people have gathered in Bangkok to protest against the coup.

No one blameless in Thai civil unrest


While the current coup in Thailand can still be described as bloodless, the risk of an explosion of serious civil unrest is now extreme, writes Zoe Daniel.

Soldiers have been attempting to contain the situation, with a few of the protesters having already been arrested.

The situation breaches martial law, which states that no more than five people at a time can be involved in a political rally.

The ABC's South East Asia correspondent Samantha Hawley says the protesters are "visibly angry".

"They don't want a coup, they don't want military rule in this country and they are making their voices heard," she told ABC News 24.

"I would say it's a real mix of people. It's women, old and young, and there are men, old and young as well. There are students.

"They are not the pro-Government Red Shirts. These are just ordinary Bangkok people, who don't want this coup."

Yesterday, a group of about 100 protesters gathered in the first show of defiance against military rule, later dispersing and saying they would be back every night.

Bangkok the safest city in the world: expat

As part of martial law, the military has censored the media, dispersed rival protesters in Bangkok and imposed a nationwide 10:00pm-to-5:00am curfew.

Australian expat David Bell has been living in Thailand for more than 30 years, and says Bangkok is "probably the safest city in the world to be in right now".

Australians feel safe despite coup


Australian expatriates in Thailand say they still feel safe, but travellers are being warned to check their insurance policies.


Mr Bell says the biggest problem is the censoring of the media.

"We can only get the Thai army station and it's repeated on all channels.

There are about 300 channels we have access to, and it all has the same stuff on it," he said.

He says people have mostly been abiding by the enforced curfew hours, though it is unsure how long the curfew will last.

"The rumour originally was it was going to be for about four to five days, but there is very little news coming through so it's impossible to say," he said.

"I believe that it will start breaking down a little bit in the next few days.

"There were a few people out after 10:00 last night. I looked out onto the street and the odd person was taking the risk - typical Thai style is you test it and test it and finally it breaks down unless it's enforced."

Gallery: Thailand political unrest: in pictures

radioaustralia.net.au

Charupong is still out there, still retains democratic legitimacy, could be PM candidate of exile government

Originally Posted by Mid

Mr Amsterdam is a ten-faced/chinned ( ) corporate sell-out, lobbying for nationally external financial interests

Fixed that for you my esteemed friend

I still think Singers should get back on the pole,l the dirty bitch.

Government in exile to be formed : Thaksin's lawyer
May 24, 2014

Those who have the mandate of Thai people are now considering to form a government in exile after the military seized the power last week, said Robert Amsterdam, lawyer of fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra.

He claimed the Thai army have no mandate from the Thais to govern the country, Amsterdam said in its website.

Therefore, those who have the mandate, through free and fair elections, are determining to set up a government in exile. He did not elaborate.

Amsterdam serves as international counsel to the United National Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) of Thailand or redshirts.

nationmultimedia.com

Originally Posted by Kurgen

I still think Singers should get back on the pole,l the dirty bitch.

A right sort

Originally Posted by Dandyhole

Charupong is still out there, still retains democratic legitimacy, could be PM candidate of exile government

Wouldn't it really be considered an exiled "caretaker" government?

It will never get off the ground; they have no-one to steal from.

Action against Amsterdam pondered
25/05/2014

The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) is pondering legal action against Robert Amsterdam, a legal adviser to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, for posting online about the establishment of a government in exile abroad following the coup, Col Winthai Suwari said on Sunday.

The army deputy spokesman said the NCPO will ask the Foreign Affairs Ministry to handle this matter as the suspected offence happened abroad with the aim of inciting unrest.

He said Mr Amsterdam had long committed legal offences in this matter but the authorities had not been able to bring him into the legal process.

At this stage, the authorities would try to block his communications with electronic methods to prevent further confusion, he said.

bangkokpost.com

NCPO to take legal action against Amsterdam
May 25, 2014

The National Council for Peace and Order will take legal action against Thaksin Shinawatra's lawyer, Robert Amsterdam over his interview with a foreign press, saying a number of states have made offers to Thaksin to host the government in exile, Army deputy spokesman Vinthai Suwaraee said Sunday.

Vinthai said the content of the interview was deemed to disturb peace in Thailand. The NCPO will ask the Foreign Ministry to cut the lawyer's communication channels.

nationmultimedia.com

The junta are making it up as they go along

Anyone know the difference between a junta and a tyranny?

Originally Posted by Dandyhole

The junta are making it up as they go along

That's never happened, huh?

^^
You can have a tyrannosaurus but there is no such thing as a juntasaurus.

Just saying, it is probably illegal to suggest they are behaving like dinosaurs.

Originally Posted by Mid

The National Council for Peace and Order will take legal action against Thaksin Shinawatra's lawyer, Robert Amsterdam over his interview with a foreign press, saying a number of states have made offers to Thaksin to host the government in exile, Army deputy spokesman Vinthai Suwaraee said Sunday.

This is pretty funny. The junta, who have declared all laws, constitution, social institutions, etc as non-applicable to their guns, are threatening a lawsuit... These people really are deluded in their beliefs of grandeur...

Personally, I don't like the idea of a government in exile at all.

Originally Posted by zygote1

If they go after Amsterdam, they will open a box of whoopass, they won't be able to close. Amsterdam has his strategic human rights allies in the USA and EU. If they go after him, the junta will find out that it is not the same as threatening an elderly journalist in Phuket. Everything Amsterdam does is thought out and methodical. He has his detractors here, I know, but one thing he is not, is stupid nor ignorant of international law. I have a hunch that he will welcome being targeted. Free publicity for his clients' political cause. He'll win the PR war on this one. The crusading human rights lawyer vs. a military dictatorship. This could backfire with travel bans slapped on anyone associated with the junta, much as what happened with the Myanmar dictatorship. We'll see how they like having their junket wings clipped. The shopping and nightlife isn't quite the same in China nor India.

They can't get Thaksin how on earth are they going to get anyone else.

Any country which hosts the Thaksin-alternative-government will forfeit diplomatic relations with Thailand.

I don't think any Asian country will take that step, as they tend to keep out of each other's internal affairs (lest the same courtesy be extended to them one day).

Thai exile gov’t mulled
The Phnom Penh Post
Thai exile gov
Mon, 26 May 2014


Members of the deposed government of former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra are considering forming a government in exile following last week’s military coup, a senior legal adviser has said, fuelling speculation that Cambodia could play host.

Robert Amsterdam, legal counsel to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (Yingluck’s influential brother), and the United National Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), better known as the “red shirts”, said in a statement on Friday that “a number of foreign governments have already expressed their willingness to host such a government in exile under internationally established rules and practice”.

Given its geographical proximity and historic ties to the Shinawatra clan, Cambodia was immediately floated by foreign media outlets as an ideal location. Phnom Penh is little more than an hour by plane from Bangkok, and Prime Minister Hun Sen has welcomed Thaksin warmly in the past.

But senior members of the government and ruling party yesterday rejected the possibility of hosting any such government in exile, citing the constitution, which stipulates “permanent neutrality and nonalignment” and pledges noninterference, either directly or indirectly, in the internal affairs of other states.

“I think whoever feels that Cambodia is an option for a Thai exile government … it is not feasible, firstly because of our constitution, and secondly because we have a comprehensive regional mechanism as well as international [mechanisms],” Council of Ministers spokesman Phay Siphan said.

Information Minister Khieu Kanharith was more blunt.

“We can’t allow such a government on our soil,” he said in a message posted on Facebook.

Since last week’s coup, the government here has been careful to maintain a neutral stance on Thai political issues, but has said it hopes the current military rule will be “transitional”.

General Prayuth Chan-O-Cha, head of the Thai army, has assumed all lawmaking powers in Thailand. Yingluck, fellow politicians and family members were detained by the military, though several media outlets reported last night that the former prime minister had been released.

Earlier this month, before the coup, Hun Sen spearheaded an ASEAN declaration that called for the Thai political situation to be resolved via dialogue and urging “full respect of democratic principles”.

When reached yesterday, Amsterdam, Thaksin’s lawyer, declined to confirm whether Cambodia had been contacted about the government-in-exile proposal.
“We are not discussing anything more than the fact that we are actively considering this. We are not making any statements yet. The situation in Thailand is incredibly fluid. We are preparing but we are not declaring,” he said in a phone interview.

“As a result of that, I don’t want to say anything about who would be the host country.… I’m not going to say anything about where, that doesn’t make any sense at this point.”

Amsterdam added that any government in exile, according to international law, would be “independent of Mr Shinawatra” and dependent on a member of Yingluck’s cabinet who has escaped the country – a person who he declined to name.

“Under international law, we need a representative of the past government.… But Mr Shinawatra continues to be a majorly important political force in Thailand.”
Analysts have long believed that Thaksin was pulling the strings behind his sister’s administration. And if such a move to Cambodia were made, it would not be the first time Thaksin had wedged himself politically between the countries.

After being deposed in Thailand’s last coup in 2006 and fleeing into self-exile to avoid a corruption conviction, Thaksin was made an economic adviser to the Cambodian government and a personal adviser to Hun Sen in 2009, a move that infuriated the conservative Thai government at the time and led to both nations withdrawing their ambassadors.

While Cambodia could be an appealing choice for Thaksin’s new “government”, the former premier might be wary of losing support at home if the military tries “to ratchet up Thai and Cambodian nationalism and connect Thaksin to it”, said Dr Paul Chambers, of the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs in Chiang Mai, which is affiliated with Chiang Mai University.

“Prayuth might even use a decision by Hun Sen to allow Thaksin a base in Cambodia to take a harder approach on Thai-Cambodian border issues. All of this would be detrimental to Thai-Cambodian relations and the unity of ASEAN,” he said.

“For Cambodia, Hun Sen will have to take a gamble. If Thaksin comes out on the ruling side [in the future], then hosting him makes sense. Otherwise, if Prayuth is the winner here, Hun Sen might want to be careful how he arranges and plays his political poker hand.”

Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor of Southeast Asian studies at Kyoto University and a prominent commentator on Thai politics – and one of dozens of academics, activists and journalists summoned by the military in recent days – said he doubted Hun Sen would take such a huge political risk.

“This could resurrect old conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and I don’t think Hun Sen would want it to happen, not when he [does not have the] upper hand in his own political battle at home,” he said in an email.

Immediately after the coup, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Sar Kheng ordered all soldiers and police stationed along the border with Thailand, in addition to provincial governors of border provinces, to continue to cooperate peacefully with their Thai counterparts.

Primary border crossings have remained open in recent days.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Koy Koung said that Thai Embassy staff remained in place yesterday and he had not received notification of any changes since the coup.

He declined to comment on the prospects of Thaksin being allowed to set up a government in exile in Cambodia.

Despite citing the constitution to explain why a government in exile couldn’t be set up in Cambodia, senior ruling party lawmaker Cheam Yeap appeared to say that if Hun Sen wanted to go through with it, he could.

“The constitution does not allow another country to use Cambodia’s sovereignty to set up an armed force or government.… However, related to Thaksin’s announcement … I don’t know, it depends on the sentiment between Thaksin and Samdech Techo Hun Sen or leaders of the ruling Cambodian People’s Party.”

Cambodian government spokesman says it won't happen in Cambodia because Cambodia is neutral.

However final decision is with Hun Sen.

Prehar Vehear Temple?

No legitimate nation would even consider an exiled politician running a campaign from their shores. Thaksin had his visa's withdrawn from the UK and Germany when he tried same prior to the protests of 2010.

He even got his wrist slapped publically by Montenegro but turned the tide by purchasing citizenship and ploughing some of his dosh into investments.

Dubai seems to have given him the thumbs down but no doubt some other godforsaken dump will be keen to see the colour of his money although I suspect that little novelty will soon wear off.

A nationalist border spat for domestic political gain is very different to hosting a government in exile. I very much doubt that Cambodia will allow it. Look towards middle east or south America.

^^ Wouldn't be thaksin heading it up, would have to be one of the elected members of the legitimate government, and not necessarily a PT guy, any of the coalition mp's.

Amsterdam reckons some got out of the country, and one of the guys I think Chaturon smelled the junta trap and tried to tell the others not to meet Prayuth.

I like the concept as it would put the world democratic leaders on the spot.

I do believe Australia has refused to recognise the junta government already.