Thread: Army: Tanks, gun movements just 'routine'

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

There's money to be made in the coup biz

Coup or no coup money is to be made if the elected government does as they always have and gives the military the money to procure the toys they desire. PTP has done just that since elected.There will be no military coup. No need.

No matter the election result, PTP cannot form a government as things now stand. To form a government at least 500 seats must be filled. Fewer than 475 can be elected given the amount of candidates currently registered. Plus a candidate receiving less than 20% of a constituencies votes cannot be seated.

TS, youve been frothing away like an epileptic in a thunderstorm for weeks now, hopefully it will all be over soon and you, and your readers, can get some much needed peace and quiet.

A revolution and political re-alignment overseen by the peasant classes can never work, whenever and wherever it has happened, mayhem and disappointment have always followed. The pitchfork wielding classes just cannot be trusted to run a twenty first century economy anymore.

Sutheps crusade, as crazy as it is, is the only way. Thailand has never been democratic, and probably wont be for many generations to come, but the "chinese" can and will run this place better than the "thais" ever can.

They are cleverer you see.

Making the poor rich by making the rich poor may warm the cockles of your schadenfreude, but its a destructive dogma to believe in.

I doubt if suthep will get very far with his shutdown plan, I suspect he will be allowed to play for a day or so before the military cajole him into calling it off.

But this is thailand, and anything could happen.

The problem as I see it is that, however things start, the country could fracture along a number of quite unexpected lines.

The police is generally seen as totally owned by MrT (one of the reasons they are generally kept well away from "yellows"), while the army is by and large amart (rumour said that the biggest boy is a MrT fan though). An army/police face off is worrying.

My missus popped up today with "MrT is not even Thai". A split along those lines would be fearsome, think rawanda.

The third (and by no means final) option is a split along, hmmm. Lets sat "nationalistic" lines (pro and anti) and leave it at that. The top, top layer is fractured in and of itself with one person waiting in the wings being of know allegiance. The armed forces have potential to further split along those lines with much (not all) of the army going one way, the navy and airforce another.

In all honesty, a red/yellow split seems one of the least worrying option at the moment.

Originally Posted by taxexile

Sutheps crusade, as crazy as it is, is the only way.

Rubbish- it is, as you say, crazy.

Originally Posted by taxexile

but the "chinese" can and will run this place better than the "thais" ever can.

Both sides are Chinese.

The risks and likelihoods from a coup of some description are many-
Civil war/ insurrection
Baht plunge
Stock market plunge
International condemnation and isolation
Loss of foreign investment
Loss of Asean status & leadership

Compared to this, Thailand was performing just fine under Yinglucks democratically elected government, and this showed in her popularity ratings. Replacing one elected bunch of cronies with another hand picked bunch of cronies by coup, who enjoy nowhere near as much domestic support, is only a recipe for disaster. Lets not even bother with the 'attacking corruption' myth.

Thailand was performing just fine under Yinglucks democratically elected government,

No it wasnt, her undoubtedly populist policies were slowly bankrupting the country and building up big problems for the future.

Originally Posted by taxexile

Thailand was performing just fine under Yinglucks democratically elected government,

No it wasnt, her undoubtedly populist policies were slowly bankrupting the country and building up big problems for the future.

Not to mention every swinging-dick Somchai could now afford a vehicle and the roads are even more crowded!

Originally Posted by taxexile

Thailand was performing just fine under Yinglucks democratically elected government,

No it wasnt, her undoubtedly populist policies were slowly bankrupting the country and building up big problems for the future.

You don't seriously believe Suthep and his merry band is doing all this because they're worried about populist policies running government budget deficits do you? I must admit a grin spread across my face as I pictured you furiously examining your Tesco bill, outraged that 7% GST is being transferred to rice pledging and infrastructure improvements in Khon Kaen. The cheek, eh TE?

Originally Posted by taxexile

TS, youve been frothing away like an epileptic in a thunderstorm for weeks now, hopefully it will all be over soon and you, and your readers, can get some much needed peace and quiet.

A revolution and political re-alignment overseen by the peasant classes can never work, whenever and wherever it has happened, mayhem and disappointment have always followed. The pitchfork wielding classes just cannot be trusted to run a twenty first century economy anymore.

Sutheps crusade, as crazy as it is, is the only way. Thailand has never been democratic, and probably wont be for many generations to come, but the "chinese" can and will run this place better than the "thais" ever can.

They are cleverer you see.

Making the poor rich by making the rich poor may warm the cockles of your schadenfreude, but its a destructive dogma to believe in.

I doubt if suthep will get very far with his shutdown plan, I suspect he will be allowed to play for a day or so before the military cajole him into calling it off.

But this is thailand, and anything could happen.

Good points and well put. Call a cat a dog but it's still a cat, and call Thailand democratic if it makes you feel warm and fuzzy, but it's still not and won't be while the electorate remain ignorant, which means at least another couple of generations but probably more.

But the saddest part is that Thais don't know that.

Btw, some people might be pissed off when they are forced to remain silent while credit for the universe and everything beyond goes to those that have stunned a 'democratic' country into ignorance by design, and for an entire lifetime.

Originally Posted by sabang

Originally Posted by taxexile

Sutheps crusade, as crazy as it is, is the only way.

Rubbish- it is, as you say, crazy.

Originally Posted by taxexile

but the "chinese" can and will run this place better than the "thais" ever can.

Both sides are Chinese.

The risks and likelihoods from a coup of some description are many-
Civil war/ insurrection
Baht plunge
Stock market plunge
International condemnation and isolation
Loss of foreign investment
Loss of Asean status & leadership

Compared to this, Thailand was performing just fine under Yinglucks democratically elected government, and this showed in her popularity ratings. Replacing one elected bunch of cronies with another hand picked bunch of cronies by coup, who enjoy nowhere near as much domestic support, is only a recipe for disaster. Lets not even bother with the 'attacking corruption' myth.

Good points, and must say there have been many of them in this and similar threads.

The risks you mention are real though unlikely to occur beyond a mild caution to those at the helm. But positives and negatives tend to balance out; fex, the market has already lost 25% since the noises began, but the very people that should notice and straighten up have almost certainly been cashing in with shorts, so a downturn may be seen as an injury from one angle while some are raking it in.

Meanwhile as someone mentioned, the West needs a stable Thailand, which is crucial to Asean and SEA, and as we know from recent global events nothing is what it is if the media are coaxed into calling it something else. This is why my money is against a coup, because if it happens it won't be a coup.

Civil war? Great sound bite to instill fear, because a frightened audience are confused and unpredictable and therefore easier to manage. But not on. Maybe a few broken heads and some more dead bodies, but these are trinkets in any great scheme.

International condemnation and isolation? The West and neighbours may condemn a party based on what they perceive it stands for. This will ignore reality in favour of political expedience, but it cannot afford to isolate Thailand, not even under another uninformed or uniformed government.

Baht plunge: 20% from its high, might go a bit more but should recover as it did before. A few months here and there are meaningless.

Our hosts tend to get bored easy and are also easily led, read low info, which is why political activity is a cyclical event.

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

Originally Posted by taxexile

Thailand was performing just fine under Yinglucks democratically elected government,

No it wasnt, her undoubtedly populist policies were slowly bankrupting the country and building up big problems for the future.

You don't seriously believe Suthep and his merry band is doing all this because they're worried about populist policies running government budget deficits do you?

No of course not, this all started with the amnesty nonsense for a convicted criminal, ( whom, had he served his sentence like a man, would have been out a long time ago , and probably running the country now)

There is a good article in todays bangkok post, which bemoans suthep for being as corrupt as thaksin and for using the same thug tactics as the reds to try and get his own way.
If the rank and file yellows really want change to a corruption free system, why havent they abandoned the corrupt leaders they now have, found a good leader and started a new party of their own, free from all the baggage of the past.

Corruption, dishonesty, mistrust and two facedness are all so much part of thai political culture that democracy and transparency are a long way off here.

As the protests this month, and three years ago show, they dont want democracy.

All they want, like the spoiled children they are, is their own way, and they are probably prepared to use malevolent violence to get it.

Thats why the military should put an end to these infantile protests before they take root.


The thais need to have a sense of discipline and morality instilled in them ( I was going to say beaten into them) to replace the medieval mindset they possess at the moment.

When thais have matured politically enough to choose sensibly, and when those they choose can be trusted to behave in the interests of the country as a whole, then they will have the democracy they think they want now.

Before that, they need an impartial and professional police force and judiciary, and an education system thst encourages expression of opinion and can intellectually challenge authority.

This red v yellow squaring up to each other doesnt even begin to address the problems affecting this silly country.

I think we are a long way from the final showdown, this months shenanigans is the equivalent of a third round replay. Wembley is a long way down the road.

Originally Posted by leemo

Good points and well put. Call a cat a dog but it's still a cat, and call Thailand democratic if it makes you feel warm and fuzzy, but it's still not and won't be while the electorate remain ignorant, which means at least another couple of generations but probably more.

The electorate are said to be ignorant in every Democracy and especially with those that oppose the incumbent.

Can Thailand afford another Coup? I doubt it. However, unless they lock up Suthep (with plenty of reasons to do so) then a Coup is the likeliest outcome.

Taxexile said : Before that, they need an impartial and professional police force and judiciary, and an education system thst encourages expression of opinion and can intellectually challenge authority.

Good reasoning. Of course the real reason their democracy is retarded is precisely because they don't have a real justice system. It exists to thwart democracy and support oligarchy. That's the root of the problem

Of course the real reason their democracy is retarded is precisely because they don't have a real justice system. It exists to thwart democracy and support oligarchy. That's the root of the problem

..... and as much as id like to, I cant argue with that.

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

Good reasoning. Of course the real reason their democracy is retarded is precisely because they don't have a real justice system. It exists to thwart democracy and support oligarchy. That's the root of the problem

Indeed. But kinda ironic that many people trace the real, real root of the current problems to a decision made by the constitutional court in (IIRC) 2001......and that had bugger all to do with democracy and the oligarchy. Quite the opposite, indeed.

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

they don't have a real justice system.

Yep. Judicial "coup" on the way. Been there done this. Disqualify and convict the bad guys for various heinous crimes. Paves the way for a new government "elected" without an election. Worked once for a while.

Originally Posted by klong toey

Most of the recent violence resulted from ill-intentioned people using weapons to ambush and attack the protesters.

That sentence tells you much about how they are and intend to frame this. If every single red shirt stayed at home, and only PADites/dems roamed the streets, they'd be violence and likely plenty of it because that's what the combined group have been working towards...

Originally Posted by taxexile

which bemoans suthep for being as corrupt as thaksin and for using the same thug tactics as the reds to try and get his own way.

nothing like a monkey to imitate another monkey,

Originally Posted by taxexile

The thais need to have a sense of discipline and morality instilled in them ( I was going to say beaten into them) to replace the medieval mindset they possess at the moment.

they kept their animal instinct because on the evolutionary human scale, they aren't there yet with the rest of the civilized world.

Nothing we can do, and it's a difference we need to learn to accept. Like forcing a religion onto natives, forcing some semblance of Democracy onto natives is the path to hell and disaster.

Originally Posted by klong toey

Army denies weapons sent to rally sites.

Deputy army spokesman Winthai Suwaree on Sunday denied a rumour soldiers had transported weapons from southern provinces to anti-government rally sites in Bangkok and urged the public to think carefully about information related to the current political situation.

Col Winthai said a check had been carried out on the claim that had found nothing to verify it. He pointed out similar rumours or speculation regarding the military have been flying around and all of it was not true. “There has been a lot of rumours lately and people need to examine the credibility of the information sources,” he added.

Most of the recent violence resulted from ill-intentioned people using weapons to ambush and attack the protesters. Police are trying to find who is behind the attacks and relieve public doubts.


He said the heavy artillery and armaments, including tanks, that were displayed for Children’s Day on Saturday had been transported to bases in Bangkok. It was a usual practice for Children’s Day every year and no one should use the occasion to incite public concern.
Army denies weapons sent to rally sites | Bangkok Post: breakingnews

Do not respond to this dickhead!

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

they don't have a real justice system.

Yep. Judicial "coup" on the way. Been there done this. Disqualify and convict the bad guys for various heinous crimes. Paves the way for a new government "elected" without an election. Worked once for a while.

Yes I suspect you may be right that they will try it again. Still, like you say, who'd buy it - again? The Government was right to tell the "constitutional court" to Fok Off after they said it was "unconstitutional" to try to amend the Senate to an all-elected body instead of half being appointed by the Army of all people. The court is a foking joke, it was caught in a recorded conversation a few years back trying to frame a Thaksin-friendly government, and instead of a real investigation into the judges, they chased down the source of the leak who had to flee the country.

The courts have ZERO credibility now, except with the blinkered yellows/amart/sakdina who benefit from their biased "rulings." They will be high on the revolutionary list when the shit hits the fan (provided the Reds actually have their shit together enough to actually lead the charge - not clear to me they do yet)

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

they don't have a real justice system.

Yep. Judicial "coup" on the way. Been there done this. Disqualify and convict the bad guys for various heinous crimes. Paves the way for a new government "elected" without an election. Worked once for a while.

Yes I suspect you may be right that they will try it again. Still, like you say, who'd buy it - again? The Government was right to tell the "constitutional court" to Fok Off after they said it was "unconstitutional" to try to amend the Senate to an all-elected body instead of half being appointed by the Army of all people. The court is a foking joke, it was caught in a recorded conversation a few years back trying to frame a Thaksin-friendly government, and instead of a real investigation into the judges, they chased down the source of the leak who had to flee the country.

The courts have ZERO credibility now, except with the blinkered yellows/amart/sakdina who benefit from their biased "rulings." They will be high on the revolutionary list when the shit hits the fan (provided the Reds actually have their shit together enough to actually lead the charge - not clear to me they do yet)

The shit and the fan are highly manipulated.
Thus, nothing will change amongst all this speculative punditry.

The more things seemingly change, the more realistically it remain the same.

Kudos towards the few here that have grasped the truer and realistic side of Thai political affairs - understanding what is and what isn't.

I don't think these reds are as 'revolutionary' as you think Tom.
Most of them are content with securing an imperfect democracy.