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  1. #101
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee View Post
    Well, it were a government study just reported by the Daily Mail.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Big Fella View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by hazz View Post
    O dear it's the daily mail, so it must be true
    NO It was released by the MET OFFICE and simply reported by the Mail and several other national newspapers.
    When you get your news from unreliable sources you’ll get unreliable information.

    Case in point (two unreliable sources, FOX News and the British Tabloid Daily Mail: Fox Falls For Tabloid "Science" )

    Fox News is promoting a report from a British tabloid to claim that new data shows "Global Warming [Is] Over." But the agency that released the data explained that the tabloid report is "misleading" because it is based on a short-term period that obscures the long-term upward trend in global temperatures.





    Last edited by S Landreth; 16-10-2012 at 10:58 PM.
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  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrAndy View Post

    there is, of course, no data to show anything either way
    No?



    The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.

    This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 – a very warm year.

    Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.

    Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it | Mail Online

    I don't think you read or understood my post properly, Spoonfed

    you just show a graph that has no connection with the quote I made, in context

    That refers to the how much human activity is affecting global warmimg, not global warming itself

    However, using short term idiot graphs to attempt to prove/disprove a phenonemon that occurs in geological time scales is a nonsense

    if you don't understand what happens when the earth cools or warms, there is plenty of scientific data to help you..read it first before believing tabloid nonsense
    I have reported your post

  3. #103
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    Good post S Landreth

    Of course you are aware that this implies intent of lying by those who spread the nonsense. But not by the idiots believing it.

  4. #104
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    We live in an age where the idea of 'many truths' has become established. This more than anything else is why divisions are deepening and debate is a joke.

    All this back and forth with spinning partial facts to support your ingrained viewpoint is acceptable, though nauseating, when you are playing with your own future and life. Short term politics lends itself to it I suppose, though it is the reason why politicians cannot get elected without bullshitting/lying through their teeth.



    When it comes to your children's lives and future though it is immoral to the extreme. Only comprehensive, well researched facts would suffice for real debate.

    No matter what your superficial viewpoint, if you do not take your children's lives seriously enough to resist the temptation to play your stupid games of 'win the game of bullshit', you are a fukkin piece of shit. Period.

    This time round, the issue under debate is really serious. If you think it's crap, it is still your responsibility to research it properly to make sure you are right. For your children's sake. Superficial shit that is typically used in politics simply won't suffice.



    Personally I have withdrawn from the 'debate'. It's become a circus. But I do think those, on either side, who throw out what can only be called piss-poor propaganda are maggots.

  5. #105
    ENT
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    Call it climate change or global warming, the process is having its effect on both Arctic and Antarctic ice, both polar ice fields are retreating at unprecedented rates.

    Arctic ice is formed in a sea surrounded by land, and this years melt has equalled if not surpassed the record melt set in 2007.

    Antarctica, where the ice is located mainly on a land mass surrounded by sea is undergoing a slower meldown than Arctic ice, but it too has seen a record calving rate of new ice floes this year along with new rifts in the ice as long as the Grand Canyon.

    Picture below of the new rift discovered in west Antarctica.



    That's a pretty massive piece of ice calving off!

    If the Antarctic ice caps melts at the present rate, it's highly likely that sea levels will rise anything up tp 4 metres within forty years.


    Arctic sea ice limits August 2012


    The orange line shows its extent between 1979 - 2000.
    Ships couldn't get through there in that time, the North East Passage was ice-bound.

    Graph showing rate and extent of Arctic sea ice melt to date.


    Now, the amount of clear water in the North East Passage has made it feasible for ships to take up the economic option of transporting fuel from Murmansk Russia, to Thailand by this route.

    The Panamax-class tanker “STI Heritage” left Murmansk on July 19 and arrived its port of destination Map Ta Phut in Thailand on August 16. The vessel sailed through the Northeast Passage in only eight days, with an average speed of 14 knots, Newsland.ru reports.
    Speed record on Northern Sea Route « The American Polar Society
    “Is it not written in your Law, ‘I said, you are gods’? John 10:34.

  6. #106
    Cenosillicaphobiac
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    Quote Originally Posted by ENT
    Now, the amount of clear water in the North East Passage has made it feasible for ships to take up the economic option of transporting fuel from Murmansk Russia, to Thailand by this route.

    Hooray for Climate Change!!!

  7. #107
    Thailand Expat HermantheGerman's Avatar
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    Frankenstorm is hitting the east coast of the U.S.






    Climate Change is here to stay.

  8. #108
    ENT
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    Always was, always is, one way or the other.

  9. #109
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    FUTURE WARMING LIKELY TO BE ON HIGH SIDE OF CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, ANALYSIS FINDS: https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news...analysis-finds

    Climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise, according to a new analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The findings, published in this week’s issue of Science, could provide a breakthrough in the longstanding quest to narrow the range of global warming expected in coming decades and beyond.

    NCAR scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth, who co-authored the study, reached their conclusions by analyzing how well sophisticated climate models reproduce observed relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics.

    The climate models that most accurately captured these complex moisture processes and associated clouds, which have a major influence on global climate, were also the ones that showed the greatest amounts of warming as society emits more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.

    “There is a striking relationship between how well climate models simulate relative humidity in key areas and how much warming they show in response to increasing carbon dioxide,” Fasullo says. “Given how fundamental these processes are to clouds and the overall global climate, our findings indicate that warming is likely to be on the high side of current projections.”

    The research was funded by NASA.

    MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND HEAT

    The world’s major global climate models, numbering more than two dozen, are all based on long-established physical laws known to guide the atmosphere. However, because these relationships are challenging to translate into software, each model differs slightly in its portrayal of global climate. In particular, some processes, such as those associated with clouds, are too small to be represented properly.

    The most common benchmark for comparing model projections is equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), or the amount of warming that eventually occurs in a model when carbon dioxide is doubled over preindustrial values. At current rates of global emission, that doubling will occur well before 2100.

    For more than 30 years, ECS in the leading models has averaged around 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius). This provides the best estimate of global temperature increase expected by the late 21st century compared to late 19th century values, assuming that society continues to emit significant amounts of carbon dioxide. However, the ECS within individual models is as low as 3 degrees F and as high as 8 degrees F (, leaving a wide range of uncertainty that has proven difficult to narrow over the past three decades.

    The difference is important to reconcile, as a higher temperature rise would produce greater impacts on society in terms of sea level rise, heat waves, droughts, and other threats.

    Clouds are one of the main sticking points, say the NCAR authors. Although satellites observe many types of clouds, satellite failure, observing errors, and other inconsistencies make it challenging to build a comprehensive global cloud census that is consistent over many years.

    However, satellites perform better in measuring water vapor, and estimates of the global distribution of relative humidity have become more reliable. Relative humidity is also incorporated in climate models to generate and dissipate clouds.

    Fasullo and Trenberth checked the distribution of relative humidity in 16 leading climate models to see how accurately they portray the present climate. In particular, they focused on the subtropics, where sinking air from the tropics produce very dry zones where most of the world's major deserts are located. The researchers drew on observations from two NASA satellite instruments -- the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) – and used a NASA data analysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA).

    The seasonal drying in the subtropics and the associated decrease in clouds, especially during May through August, serve as a good analog for patterns projected by climate models.

    “The dry subtropics are a critical element in our future climate,” Fasullo says. “If we can better represent these regions in models, we can improve our predictions and provide society with a better sense of the impacts to expect in a warming world.”

    ACCURATE HUMIDITY YIELDS HIGHER FUTURE TEMPERATURES

    Estimates based on observations show that the relative humidity in the dry zones averages between about 15 and 25 percent, whereas many of the models depicted humidities of 30 percent or higher for the same period. The models that better capture the actual dryness were among those with the highest ECS, projecting a global temperature rise for doubled carbon dioxide of more than 7 degrees F. The three models with the lowest ECS were also the least accurate in depicting relative humidity in these zones.

    “Because we have more reliable observations for humidity than for clouds, we can use the humidity patterns that change seasonally to evaluate climate models,” says Trenberth. “When examining the impact of future increases in heat-trapping gases, we find that the simulations with the best fidelity come from models that produce more warming.”

    The authors focused on climate models used for the 2007–08 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The next-generation models being used for the upcoming 2013–14 IPCC assessment were found to behave in a similar fashion, as described in a preliminary analysis by the authors in a supplement to their paper.

    “In addition to providing a path forward and focus for improving models, results strongly suggest that the more sensitive models perform better, and indeed the less sensitive models are not adequate in replicating vital aspects of today’s climate,” write the authors in the paper.


    Computer models that more accurately depict dry conditions in a key part of the subtropical atmosphere are also more likely to predict greater climate warming from increased greenhouse gases. In this graphic, each star indicates one of 16 leading global climate models. The left axis ("warming") corresponds to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in degrees C, which is the amount of warming produced by each model when carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are doubled over preindustrial values. The bottom axis shows May-to-August relative humidity for a portion of the upper atmosphere between about 20,000 to 30,000 feet in height and between about 10° and 25° latitude south in the southern subtropics. (©UCAR. Image by Carlye Calvin, based on Fasullo and Trenberth, Science, 2012.)

  10. #110
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    World Bank Fears 4 Degree Warming

    The World Bank has warned that global temperatures could rise by four degrees this century without immediate action, with potentially devastating consequences for coastal cities and the poor.
    Issuing a call for action, the World Bank tied the future wealth of the planet - and especially developing regions - to immediate efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions from sources such as energy production.
    "The time is very, very short. The world has to tackle the problem of climate change more aggressively," World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said on a conference call on Sunday as he launched a report conducted for the global lender.
    "We will never end poverty if we don't tackle climate change. It is one of the single biggest challenges to social justice today."
    The study said the planet could warm 4.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels as early as the 2060s if governments' promises to fight climate change are not met.
    Even if nations fulfill current pledges, the study gave a 20 per cent likelihood of a four-degree rise by 2100 and said that a three-degree rise appeared likely. UN-led climate negotiations have vowed to limit the rise of temperatures to no more than two degrees.
    "A four-degree warmer world can and must be avoided. We need to hold warming below two degrees," Kim said.
    "Lack of ambitious action on climate change threatens to put prosperity out of reach of millions and roll back decades of development."
    UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that the study showed the need to hold nations to their commitment, made last year in Durban, South Africa, to put in place a legally binding new climate agreement by 2015.
    The more than 190 nations in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change start their latest annual talks on November 26 in Qatar.
    Global temperatures have already risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius.
    The planet has charted a number of record-breaking temperatures over the past decade and experienced frequent disasters some experts blame on climate change, most recently superstorm Sandy, which ravaged Haiti and the US East Coast.
    The report said that, if temperatures rise by four degrees, regions will feel different effects - recent heatwaves in Russia could become an annual norm and July in the Mediterranean could be nine degrees higher than the area's warmest level now.
    Under that scenario, the acidity of the oceans could rise at a rate unprecedented in world history, threatening coral reefs that protect shorelines and provide a habitat for fish species.
    Rising sea levels could inundate coastal areas with the most vulnerable cities found in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Venezuela and Vietnam, the study said.
    "Many small islands may not be able to sustain the communities at all. There would be irreversible loss of biodiversity," Kim said.
    The study found that the most alarming impact may be on food production, with the world already expected to struggle to meet demand for a growing and increasingly wealthy population that is eating more meat.
    Low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam and parts of Africa's coast could see major blows to food production, with drought severely hindering agriculture elsewhere, the study said.
    Flooding can also contaminate drinking water, increasing illnesses such as diarrhoea.
    The dire warnings were designed to encourage bolder action, but the report did not focus on potential steps.
    Identifying one area, Kim called for less reliance on coal, which is the dirtiest major form of energy but is politically sensitive in the United States and China due to industry jobs.
    Kim said that the World Bank was determined to support renewable energy in its lending, saying: "We do everything we can not to invest in coal - everything we possibly can."
    The fight against climate change has faced political obstacles in a number of nations including the United States, where many conservative lawmakers have called action too costly and cast doubt on the science.
    Kim, a physician and former president of Dartmouth College who was tapped for the World Bank by US President Barack Obama, said that 97 per cent of scientists agreed that human activity was causing climate change.
    "As someone who has lived in the world of science for a long time, 97 per cent is unheard-of consensus," he said.
    The report was carried out by German-based Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The World Bank said it did not consider the study a substitute for next UN-backed scientific assessment on climate change expected in 2014.
    World Bank fears 4.0 degree warming

  11. #111
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    Too many variables reacting at different speeds. Ocean levels, currents, salinity, bleaching.
    Air movements temperature, moisture, speed, direction changes.
    Sea ice, land ice, release of gaseous content, reflection of light and heat, feedback loops.
    Violent events, natural catastrophe, man made cataclysmic events. Changes/increases in destructive weather patterns, famine, drought, war.
    Reaction and adaptation of sea and land life forms. Vegetation and forestry, agriculture changes.
    External impacts from changes within and outside the solar system.

    To predict even the most simple of these hugely influential patterns successfully is almost impossible, because no events can be predicted in isolation. All are interactive and will occur at different and unpredictable rates, with possible domino effects once combined with other events.
    Man exercises so little self control, it is impossible to predict his actions or reactions to events.
    All the events are not within his control and any interactions unpredictable in the extreme.
    The only certainty is change. The pace of change will determine whether or not humanity is willing or able to adapt in order to survive.
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  12. #112
    Thailand Expat Humbert's Avatar
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    ^The Koch Brothers have spent millions financing the CATO Institute to cast doubt upon the science of climate change by making these sorts of arguments. It's all unknowable, unpredictable and impossible to understand so don't worry about it and don't bother us while we continue to rake in billions of profits on our fossil fuel businesses.

  13. #113
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    Agreed Humbert.

    I also agree with what you've posted Chas, but for this ;
    "Too many variables reacting at different speeds."

    I'd say many variable, but not too many to calculate.

    And:
    "To predict even the most simple of these hugely influential patterns successfully is almost impossible, "

    Almost impossible, but definitely possible, as that's what's going on with Earth and Ocean studies, climatology and seismology.
    No hard and fast predictions can be made, but a degree of accuracy has been achieved in working out and predicting future climate scenarios.

    It was only 10-20 years ago that climatology and marine biology started to put two and two together about changing global circulation patterns. It's all a young science yet, but what was predicted, ie a rise in global temperatures accompanied by increasing extreme changes in weather patterns has come about.

    Understanding the El Nino/La Nina mechanism is key to understanding the process by which CO2 is sequestered, glacial and polar ice melt and marine life migrations that are now fast changing their patterns of behaviour.

  14. #114
    Molecular Mixup
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    I still blame Black people as ever increasing numbers of them seem to be tipping the Earth's fragile climate balance.
    I'm sure a graph could be produced showing the correlation between the massive increase in blacks over the last 200 years and the rise in the earths temp.

    You see White folk's eco friendly light skin simple reflects the suns heat straight back into outer space ! ,
    while black people's greedy dark skin absorbs the heat them slowly releases it into the atmosphere with deadly effect .

    Sorry if this makes me sound racist but it's just the hard science of colour and makes as much sense than any other theory.

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humbert
    It's all unknowable, unpredictable and impossible to understand so don't worry about it and don't bother us while we continue to rake in billions of profits on our fossil fuel businesses.
    Sorry but I have no need of further complications to unfathomable anthropological problems by adding the political and financial lobby. That would just muddy the waters further and acts to dilute the responses needed.

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by ENT
    No hard and fast predictions can be made, but a degree of accuracy has been achieved in working out and predicting future climate scenarios.
    I don't believe it is possible to isolate any areas in conjunction with each other. The problem can only be understood by accounting for all variables. Remember the list I posted is not exhaustive. There are issues at work of which we barely have any understanding. What if the geometry of the earth changes. Do we truly understand the impact of solar activity when science cannot currently agree on it? Are there internal mechanisms of the planet changing?
    Quote Originally Posted by ENT
    Understanding the El Nino/La Nina mechanism is key to understanding the process by which CO2 is sequestered, glacial and polar ice melt and marine life migrations
    We may have a broad understanding of these mechanisms, but once again, even that is unpredictable and subject to change.
    Predicting changes in ocean currents is one thing. Predicting the impact of all other variables at the same time is another. These huge changes are all interdependent and the rate at which change occurs in individual mechanisms is not predictable.
    The Earth has somehow conspired over eons to produce conditions suitable for human habitation. We are the only species vain enough to believe we can, A) have an impact on change on such a scale, and B) believe we can actually do something about it.

  17. #117
    ENT
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    You're right about the complexity of the situation and I agree entirely with your view that WTF can we do about it all.
    Still, I'd rather see more research and action taken to survive these changes than just sit back and carry on polluting and adding to the speed of this extinction phase.
    I find it interesting that humanity has quickly moved into a comparatively advanced state scientifically and technologically co-incident to a time of climate change.
    Is it the dog wagging the tail or vice versa?
    Are we somehow advancing more rapidly now as a result of need to overcome a perceived threat to our world? Will we find solutions to some of the problems involved in climate change. and so create new technologies we'd never have dreamed of otherwise?

    Humanity has always been vain, and today's vanity is that we may change the weather to suit our purposes. Pretty ridiculous really.

    I think the best we can do is to adapt, not to try to control anything, but certainly to at least gravitate towards a greater harmony with earth and its mechanics.

  18. #118
    Molecular Mixup
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    Quote Originally Posted by ENT
    I find it interesting that humanity has quickly moved into a comparatively advanced state scientifically and technologically co-incident to a time of climate change.
    About the time Romans arrived in Britain with thier new technology the place warmed up ,was even warm enough to even grow grapes in the north , guess they could have wondered at the coincidental nature of it too,

  19. #119
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    They probably did.
    It's now warm enough to grow grapes up north again.

  20. #120
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    Nyetimber vineyard scraps 2012 grape harvest

    Nyetimber said that maintaining quality was paramount
    Continue reading the main story Related Stories


    A multi-award winning English vineyard has decided not to harvest its grapes this year because of the bad weather.
    Nyetimber, in West Sussex, said the quality and volume of the 2012 harvest was not up to standard.
    Cherie Spriggs, winemaker at Nyetimber, said the decision was a difficult one but that "maintaining quality is paramount".
    Nyetimber's sparkling wine has been consistently ranked alongside the finest French champagne.
    Soil at the vineyard at West Chiltington is geologically identical to the champagne region, but the vines need warm dry weather.
    Ms Spriggs said: "My first obligation as the winemaker is to ensure the quality of Nyetimber's wines, and we have collectively come to the decision that the grapes from 2012 cannot deliver the standards we have achieved in the past and will again in the future.
    "The decision to not make wine from 2012 is a difficult one, not just for me but for our whole team. However, we all know that maintaining quality is paramount."
    Nyetimber's accolades include three times winner of the Best Worldwide Sparkling Wine award at the International Wine and Spirit Competition.
    This year's variable weather included the wettest June since records began.

  21. #121
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    It's an uncertain year for vintners in Otago Sth Island NZ too.
    Frosts have wiped the tips of all the vines here, so not much of a season for a lot of growers.
    A warm long autumn, then a warm patchy winter followed by a couple vof false springs where autumn colours developed on new spring growth on the poplars!
    It snowed again last night and temperatures have dipped and soared, crazy. It should be warm and start of summer by now.
    Farmers are predicting a hot dry summer (when it arrives) and a long autumn again, but who knows.

  22. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by ENT
    You're right about the complexity of the situation and I agree entirely with your view that WTF can we do about it all.
    It's not really my view at all. I believe that honest science could do so much, but with so much 'sponsored' science, it's no surprise that governments are kissing lobbyists ass instead of following the truth.
    The earth will only support that which is sustainable. It's part population and part greed that is driving change. I'm not in the least religious, but maybe the meek will inherit the earth?

  23. #123
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    The meek in this case will likely be cockroaches and bacteria, along with the lowest bio-forms.

  24. #124
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    Maybe not quite that far back? Perhaps as far as Darwins Finches. Those that can adapt will survive and those who can't will become extinct?

    They say everything is connected and I am a conservationist, but I cannot for the life of me understand the point of pandas. They should have died out centuries ago. Why spend all that time effort and money on something so useless?

  25. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by chassamui
    They say everything is connected and I am a conservationist, but I cannot for the life of me understand the point of pandas. They should have died out centuries ago. Why spend all that time effort and money on something so useless?
    They have one great advantage going for them in the age of modern man. They look cuddly.

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