Stock Market Thread

[barbaro]

This thread is about US stock markets, and only the stock market.

Please click this link to see a brief presentation. It's a chart.

Comments?

MarketClub Videos: Is It Déjà Vu All Over Again for the Dow Indu?

[raycarey]

why didn't he just lay the '09 chart on top of the '29 chart?

IMO the djia is not all that meaningful in the present day.

first it's only 30 companies...and secondly, if a few companies go tits up (like they did last year), then they are simply replaced with other companies.

anyway.......S & P above or below 1000 on 12/31/10?

[barbaro]

why didn't he just lay the '09 chart on top of the '29 chart?

IMO the djia is not all that meaningful in the present day.

first it's only 30 companies...and secondly, if a few companies go tits up (like they did last year), then they are simply replaced with other companies.

anyway.......S & P above or below 1000 on 12/31/10?

I agree the DOW is only 30 blue chippers, and when there is a perenniel under-performer they remove that company from the DOW.

Of course the indext to watch (IMO) is the S & P 500 for the most part.

As noted in the video, there are tens of millions of Baby Boomers (already battered by the financial crisis) and if there is more undertainty or fear they can keep the money in and watch it go down, or they can pull it out.

But the 1929-1933 chart was interesting when compared to the current one.

Even though he was focusing on the DJIA (It think) he was referring to the entire US stock market in general.

[Aguda]

As Hewison said there is the potential for a further decline, so there is also the potential for the market to increase also. In my mind, no one knows where the market will head tommorow and dollar cost averaging will ultimately make money in the long term. Many people I knew had stopped investing at the end of 2008 and missed out on some great buying opportunities and locked in their losses.
Let's hope that we heed the Hungarian proverb "the past is the teacher of the future" and that we have learned from the 1929 crash.

[barbaro]

Bob Prechter says the DOW has topped out. We'll see if you're right, Bob.

He says by May the US stock market will take a drop.

He noted that the bond market, commodities, and utilities and topped a couple of months ago and the DOW and S & P are next.

He likes the dollar for now though.

[GooMaiRoo]

The federal government can manipulate fiscal policy and its plunge protection team can pretty much make the Dow do anything it wants in the short term. It's starting to remind me of a Kurt Vonnegut novel where humans are kept in a zoo on a distant planet and a stock ticker is displayed to keep them entertained. In relation to things of value - productive farmland, gold or stable currencies (e.g. Canadian, Swiss) - the common stocks of a semi-bankrupt, imploding economy with understated unemployment numbers and seriously distressed consumers doesn't measure up at all. In the long run only a few US stocks will do well, probably the export-intensive ones because workers' wages and the dollar are in a long-term downward trajectory. The USA has great technology, much ingenuity and motivated workers trying to escape their debts, so it will produce some good things at reasonable prices for the world to buy. This should help a few stocks but not the entire index.

[barbaro]

I'm posting this so I can remember it.

When "anaylysts" make these predictions, I sit back and wait to see how right or wrong they will or won't be.

Arch Crawford is prediction a major market downturn (see chart below).

I've been reading this elsewhere. But is this no different from past bearish sentiments? Or, is this something different?

. Welcome to Crawford Perspectives

Biggest planetary alignment ever. (Bradley model).

Plus, the Mars-Uranus crash cycle due on August 6+/-. Nukes, whatever, "Bigger than the fall of Rome."



Arch interview starts about 60 minutes into the program.

Gold$eek Radio Player

[Muadib]

For every bear you find with a chart and a tale of gloom & doom, you will find a bull with a similar chart advocating happy days are here again...

Look at the underlying fundamentals which drive the markets... Manufacturing numbers, raw materials, supply and demand, inventory levels, international trade, corporate balance sheets, guidance, technical analysis and trends... With the exception of the job numbers, overall all indicators support the fact that markets & corporate America are recovering and the chances of a retrace are minimal...

Having said that, the markets are not always logical and predictable... There is a great deal of emotion in trading / investing in the markets... Last Friday is a prime example... The Goldman Sachs case put the market into a panic and they sold off across the board... After 2008, traders & investors are more likely to sell first and ask questions later...

[barbaro]

Roubini predict 20% decline in stock markets. We'll see if you he's right. How is that 401K doing? Cash?

To watch the video interview, click the link at the bottom.

Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place: Roubini


Published: Thursday, 20 May 2010 | 4:25 PM ET






Stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent in value as the world economy weakens, noted economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC

Nouriel Roubini

As the market slides into correction territory, Roubini said weakness in euro zone countries and a slowdown in the US and other developed countries will make things even more difficult for investors in the months ahead.


"There are some parts of the global economy that are now at the risk of a double-dip recession," said Roubini, head of Roubini Global Economics. "From here on I see things getting worse."
Prices in both stocks and commodities are likely to take a hit, and investors may only be safe in cash and other safe havens. Roubini said investors also can use options to hedge against future market risk that he said is sure to come as conditions weaken in the US, Japan, China and through much of Europe.


That will lave little room for growth both in economic measures and in most investment classes, Roubini said.


"There is that risk because the problems on the macro level are first in the euro zone. Then in China there is evidence of economic slowdown...Japan is in trouble and US economic growth is going to slow down," he said. "There is also regulatory risk because we don't know how financial reform is going to occur."

Link & Entire: News Headlines

[Spin]

Look at the underlying fundamentals which drive the markets... Manufacturing numbers, raw materials, supply and demand, inventory levels, international trade, corporate balance sheets, guidance, technical analysis and trends... With the exception of the job numbers, overall all indicators support the fact that markets & corporate America are recovering and the chances of a retrace are minimal...

you know, when you posted this just a month ago, I agreed. But given the eco-numbers since then, it looks to be a bit of a pipe dream.

What a difference a month makes.

[Muadib]

^ No shite... There is fear in the air, blood in the water, ash over the EU, protests in the streets and oil in the gulf... I'm on the sidelines right now with the exception of a few $$$ in the vxx...

[Spin]

^ just goes to show that things only work until they stop working. then you have to dump them, leaving emotion aside. it aint easy is it?

[Muadib]

^ 200 - 400 point intra-day swings are great if you are a high frequency trader and able to trade the market... It's an investor's nightmare... I took some losses as the market slid to where I hit my risk to pain threshold, then liquidated... With the S&P breaking the 50 & 200 day moving averages on the way down, I don't thinks it's done yet...

[Jet Gorgon]

I think the markets will gyrate until there's more certainty, not only in the EU but in the US, and global effects on both areas. Few market analysts get forecasts right -- too many pop-up variables. China's moves will impact greatly. I'm waiting for the day it pulls out of Treasuries and it's all over.
Because of the global spread and diversity of the cos in the Dow, it is a fair marker for overall trends and effects, IMO.

[barbaro]

The dow is down, 7.9% during the Month of May. The Dow, as we know is only 30 blue chip stocks, and the S & P was only down 1%.

U.S. Stocks, Oil, Euro Tumble; Dow Ends Worst May Since 1940

Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A


By Rita Nazareth and Elizabeth Stanton




May 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid, capping the worst May for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1940, while the euro slumped and Treasuries rose as a downgrade of Spain’s debt rating and escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula triggered a flight from riskier assets.
The Dow tumbled 122.36 points, or 1.2 percent, to 10,136.63 at 4 p.m. in New York and lost 7.9 percent this month.

Link & Entire: U.S. Stocks, Oil, Euro Tumble; Dow Ends Worst May Since 1940 - Bloomberg.com

[barbaro]

An artificially inflated US stock market, some claim. And other numbers point to possibilities. Not 'gloom and doom' but possibilities.

Professional Investors Are Preparing For A Stock Market Crash
September 10th, 2014


george sorosDavid Zeiler: It looks like a growing number of professional investors are preparing for a stock market crash, as hedge fund filings for the second quarter show a spike in defensive positions.

In particular, legendary billionaire George Soros made a huge bet against the market. He increased his short position on the Standard & Poor’s 500 by a startling 605%.

The 9.69 million new shares of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca: SPY) put options gave Soros a total of 11.29 million shares and made it the biggest holding in his portfolio.


Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute: Professional Investors Are Preparing For A Stock Market Crash | ETF DAILY NEWS

[bowie]

hmm ...

Every week on Wall Street, experts and gurus try to fire up investors with predictions of economic doom or unprecedented prosperity. Keep these examples in mind, because even the best are often spectacularly wrong.

9 really wrong economic predictions

Charley Blaine, MSN Money

9 really wrong economic predictions- MSN Money

[barbaro]

hmm ...

Every week on Wall Street, experts and gurus try to fire up investors with predictions of economic doom or unprecedented prosperity. Keep these examples in mind, because even the best are often spectacularly wrong.

9 really wrong economic predictions

I agree and hear your point. There are a lot of people making dire forecasts - and they have been wrong at times: Celente, Roubini, etc.

Here is Marc Faber who's been reiterating this "doom" line for a while. I think he has a case for several nations going insolvent in the future.

But here he is using McDonald's decline as a barometer. I don't see it this way. I see McD's decline as the results of imported beef from China with expired dates (true and bad PR) and increased competition and choices.

Nonetheless, the US stock market is expensive. But based on what? The engineering of inflated assets and wealth?

Marc Faber: McDonald’s tells us why the market will collapse
Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex

September 12, 2014

Marc Faber has long predicted that a collapse in U.S. stocks is coming. On Thursday he reiterated that call, saying there is fresh evidence that a bear market is ahead—courtesy of the Golden Arches.

On Tuesday, McDonald's reported that global same-store sales in August fell 3.7 percent in August, well short of expectations. The worst drop occurred in the Asia-Pacific region on the back of a Chinese meat safety scandal, but even U.S. sales slid 2.8 percent.

Read More McDonald's global same-store sales fall 3.7 pct in August

For Faber, those results are a perfect example of the damage being done by central banks—and the harbinger of more bad news to come.

"Nobody knows for sure" what will cause stocks to collapse, but "the earnings may disappoint. We had, essentially, very poor sales from McDonald's. Now, McDonald's is a very good indicator of the global economy. If McDonald's doesn't increase its sales, it tells you that the monetary policies have largely failed in the sense that prices are going up more than disposable income, and so people have less purchasing power."

Faber has long argued that the policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks simply increase asset prices and create inflation rather than actually stimulating the economy. But while the long-predicted inflation has not come to pass, Faber says that the McDonald's results reflect the fact that inflation is rising faster than income, reducing the amount that individuals can spend.

Marc Faber
Adam Jeffery | CNBC

"Credit expansion and money printing hasn't filtered much to ordinary people. It's boosted asset markets, real estate and stocks," he said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

"So well-to-do-people have done very well. High-end restaurants are packed. Now, some money flows to people who are serving there, because well-to-do people give generous tips, but ordinary people have a much higher cost of living increase than 2 percent."

But even as most have seen their cost of living increase, according to Faber, median family income has hardly budged. That puts less-wealthy families—and the companies like McDonald's that are reliant upon them—in a tough bind.

So if Faber's analysis is correct, how bad could it ultimately get for stocks?

"We've had a bull run since October 2011 without more than an 11 percent correction," he notes. "And now we're probably not going to get a correction, but more likely, a bear market that will be 20 to 30 percent at some point."

After all, Faber said that fewer and fewer stocks are making new highs, and a greater number are making 12-week lows, "so the technical picture of the market is not very good."

Add that to Faber's observation that "the U.S. is the most pricey market compared to other markets in the world," and he has constructed a bearish case.

—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg

Marc Faber: McDonald

[bowie]

Nonetheless, the US stock market is expensive. But based on what? The engineering of inflated assets and wealth?

Expensive is a relative term. If the US Stock market is expensive, then, just where should I be investing my nest egg? To amplify;

I predict a bear market, followed by a bull market, then followed by a bear market which will be followed by a bull market ...

Everything fluctuates. Most certainly the stock market. The stock market is governed by emotions so therefore it is fickle.

If the professionals cannot time the market – and they certainly have been trying, after all, it is their job – then how can we novices possibly hope to time the market. I know for a fact that I can’t, I’ve tried. In my younger years I traded stock, always with “mad money”. Sometimes right, more often wrong. Devoted many, many hours doing due diligence in an effort to select winners, timing Buys and Sells, and I did pay attention to the many details. Resulting batting average, less than .250, losing some of the mad money, you never lose it all.

The average Joe is better off letting a brokerage house or money advisor manage his/her portfolio.

Philosophy-wise, it doesn’t matter how much money you have. We are all in the same boat, so, what matters is how much money you have relative to how much money other people have.

Your position on the economic ladder determines your standard-of-living and how many luxuries you can afford. When the market goes up, all nest eggs go up, and vice versa. Your position on the economic ladder does not change based on market performance.


On the issue of McDonald’s. My personal belief (probably wrong), is that McDonald’s sales have fallen not based on the economic decline, but because it is now seen as overpriced and unhealthy fast food. With the “new” emphasis on health care costs, obesity, exercise, etc. People are more health conscious. There is no proof of this, but with the ACA, M. Obama’s “Let’s Move” exercise campaign, and, more media attention and emphasis on fitness, it is takings its toll on “fast foods”. Remember, people have to eat – period. The fact that they are eating less of Mickey Dee’s is not a signal of an impending financial crisis.

Also, once the market corrects, or collapses, it will recover. Sell at the lows – you lose.

Sell now? Keep you money in cash with no return, inflation causes you to lose.

Sell at the high (you win) - But, just when are we at the high?

Do nothing – the bear takes over, then the bull takes over, you will do “OK”. Back to the historic 6-8% return provided you are long.

I’m leaving my nest egg, where it is, diversified in domestic stocks, foreign stocks, cash and bonds, primarily in mutual funds managed by a well know and large brokerage firm that states their platform is a conservative investment strategy expected to return 10-12% per year on a long-term retirement goal driven platform.

From my experience, whenever I have exercised my prerogative to manage my money – I wind up losing.

[PeeCoffee]

apology in advance. just testing to see if i am allowed access to speakers corner.

[PeeCoffee]

An artificially inflated US stock market, some claim. And other numbers point to possibilities. Not 'gloom and doom' but possibilities.

Professional Investors Are Preparing For A Stock Market Crash
September 10th, 2014


george sorosDavid Zeiler: It looks like a growing number of professional investors are preparing for a stock market crash, as hedge fund filings for the second quarter show a spike in defensive positions.

In particular, legendary billionaire George Soros made a huge bet against the market. He increased his short position on the Standard & Poor’s 500 by a startling 605%.

The 9.69 million new shares of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca: SPY) put options gave Soros a total of 11.29 million shares and made it the biggest holding in his portfolio.


Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute: Professional Investors Are Preparing For A Stock Market Crash | ETF DAILY NEWS

Look at your posts from just 4 years ago.
Liquidations basically lost out on a 60% run-up to date (avg 15% annual gain).

Now if you want to take some meat off the pie I can understand.

I'm in for the next 9 -10 years...if it goes tits up I'll be and a whole lotta of other people will be genuinely f**ked.

Basically , I'm holding and dividends are reinvested...slow and steady , Eddie.

Good luck with your fortunes and most importantly your health and well-being.

[Black Heart]

It's time for another cyclical downturn as is usual. Note the numbers below.


How central banks have sown the seeds for the next financial crisis

The notion that governments have somehow got on top of the forces of financial instability is for the birds

By Jeremy Warner10:00AM BST 05 Jun 2015

Here’s a somewhat scary statistic for those meant to know about these things. After a six-year bull market, the typical stock in America’s S&P 500 shares index is valued on a multiple of more than 18 times estimated forward earnings. This is not just expensive by historic standards, but super-expensive. In fact, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs, it ranks as in the top 98th percentile of historic valuations since 1976, or in other words one of the highest in nearly 40 years. It scarcely needs saying that these peaks tend to signal the top of the cycle, with some kind of bear market or crash just around the corner.
But hold on a moment, you might say; we’ve barely recovered from the last downturn. It surely cannot already be time for another? Regrettably it can. Most business cycles last little more than seven years, and if anything they tend to be getting even shorter. The US economy contracted in the first quarter and has shown few signs of significant recovery since.

How central banks have sown the seeds for the next financial crisis - Telegraph

[PeeCoffee]

The next downturn could be another buying opportunity (same as 2009 - 2012)...if you have patience, balls and equity.
(Just a thought.)

[Black Heart]

Here's and article and video interview with Ron Paul.

Ron Paul: Stock market 'day of reckoning' is near
Amanda Diaz | @CNBCDiaz
11 Hours Ago
CNBC.com


Ron Paul: Stock market 'day of reckoning' is near

[Black Heart]

Any posters have to make decisions occasionally regarding this? I'm going to put my money in term accounts for a year and wait to to put it in Vanguard Index Fund. Market Watch tends to be histrionic. But, a dip is the next thing in this cycle.

How a deeper dive by Apple could crush this market

Published: Aug 4, 2015

Crumbles by commodities and the Colossus of Cupertino have been getting much of the blame for the stock market slumping in seven of the past 10 sessions.

“If AAPL doesn’t find its footing soon, it may risk a deeper drop,” writes Andrew Nyquist, over at See It Market.

And as goes the largest company by market value, so goes the whole U.S. stock market. Or at least a further slide by Apple would act as a mighty powerful brake on the S&P 500 SPX, -0.22% SPY, -0.20% , where it’s about 4% of the benchmark, and on the growthier Nasdaq 100 NDX, -0.28% QQQ, -0.19% where it’s a 14% chunk.

So, what’s the matter with Apple AAPL, -3.21% ? For the first time since September 2013, the tech giant’s stock has knifed under the closely watched 200-day moving average. Many chart lovers use that as a guide to a stock’s long-term trend.

How a deeper dive by Apple could crush this market - MarketWatch