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  1. #26
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    All in: Investors' cash levels hit record low
    John Melloy

    It's hard to poke holes in this bull market.

    The usual bear arguments trotted out—a Fed rate increase, slowing China economic growth, an increasing dollar—just don't seem to stick as the bull market continues marching higher.

    However, one worrying contrarian statistic highlighted by Sentimentrader.com is making the rounds on trading floors and seems like a legitimate concern given its historical track record.

    All in: Investors' cash levels hit record low
    As of March 15, 2016, I have 97Century Threads.

  2. #27
    Thailand Expat Black Heart's Avatar
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    As noted before, the US stock market is due for a correction:

    Investors are running away from U.S. stocks


    Stock Market Lookahead
    Investors are running away from U.S. stocks

    By Heather Long and Patrick Gillespie @CNNMoneyInvest

    Investors are jumping ship.

    They're abandoning the United States and flocking to Europe and Japan in search of better places for their money to grow.

    The bull market has been underway for over six years in U.S. stocks, but there are concerns that it's overdue for a correction.


    "The fact they are pulling money out of U.S. equities seems to indicate some sort of fear about the future," says Alina Lamy, a senior analyst at Morningstar.
    The "Great Rotation" out of U.S. stocks began about a year ago, but it has really picked up steam in 2015.

    Investors are running away from U.S. stocks - Aug. 9, 2015

  3. #28
    Thailand Expat Black Heart's Avatar
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    The "Death Cross." Sounds....enticing. Kind of like a movie title. Click link at bottome for graph of the Death Cross

    August 12, 2015

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s biggest decline in a month is proving the final nail in its death cross.

    That’s what technical analysts call it when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day mean, a formation that was achieved today as the gauge declined for the eighth time in nine days. The pattern is commonly interpreted as a signal price momentum is fizzling out.

    “If you don’t make any upside progress, the moving average will start to flatten and eventually turn down,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Holdings LLC, said by phone. “There are fewer and fewer stocks holding up the market, and that’s generally not a good thing.”

    The Death Cross Forms on the Dow Chart - Bloomberg Business

  4. #29
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    The Chicken little are out, and so are the Chinese cabbies that bought into the market.


    Da Question: what will happen to US markets when they open today, Monday, August 24, 2005.

    Duh, we'll see a knee-jerk decline. How much? Dunno. Takes a rocket scientist to say this.


    The mainstream media's favorite word is CRISIS!

    FTSE plunges as China sparks global markets crisis - live
    Shares, commodities and currencies under pressure across the globe as concern grows over China’s economy, and Beijing’s ability to handle the crisis
    FTSE 100 hit by global rout
    Chinese stock market suffers biggest fall since 2007
    Analyst: Beijing isn’t in control
    Summary: Chinese market rout sparks selloff
    Beijing poised to flood the market with cash, says WSJ
    Japan’s Nikkei tumbles 4.6%
    Australia share market has worst day in six years


    Here’s a remarkable fact - more than $5 trillion has been wiped off the value of global stock markets since Beijing devalued the yuan a fortnight ago.

    The yuan devaluation was the trigger for the current market mayhem, as it fuelled fears that China’s economy was in worse shape than authorities admitted.

    FTSE plunges as China sparks global markets crisis - live | Business | The Guardian

  5. #30
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    So what should I do with my millions? ***















    *** of zimbabwe dollars.

  6. #31
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    Shiff says the US market decline is NOT b/c of China.

    This is informative.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?t=398&v=4b2UGHHaZRg

  7. #32
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    Do you agree with Harry Dent?


  • #33
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    The "Death Cross" spreads.


    ‘Death cross’ patterns spread to all corners of the stock market


    Published: Sept 1, 2015 1:37 p.m. ET

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dea...rus-2015-08-28

    “Death cross” patterns continue to spread through the stock market like an epidemic, even infecting market segments believed to be more insulated from overseas turmoil.

    The Russell 2000 index RUT, -2.71% of small-capitalization stocks became the latest victim among the major market indexes. The index’s 50-day moving average fell to 1,222.95 in midday trade Tuesday, crossing below the 200-day moving average (MA), which slipped to 1,224.11, according to FactSet.

  • #34
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    Markets have tripled since 2009. It's a cycle. Time to buy soon? I think so.

    Soros: It's the 2008 crisis all over again

  • #35
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    Down 6%. It's only the 30 blue-chippers in the DJIA, but is it Temporary of start of a trend? A trend IMO. Anyone else sitting in cash and waiting to buy in this year or next?

    The Dow lost 1,079 points this week, or over 6%, as fears about China and crashing oil prices dealt Wall Street a painful one-two blow. It was the Dow's worst five-day start to a year on record, according to Dow Jones.

    Historic week: Dow plunges 1,079 points - Jan. 8, 2016

  • #36
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    East Asian markets are down. (So were Middle East markets.) Holiday in the US today, but future are down. I expect another week of declines.

    Stock markets are off to another bumpy start to the week.


    Amid plunging oil prices and worries over the state of China's slowing economy, most Asian indexes fell Monday.

    The Hang Seng in Hong Kong shed 1.5%, and Japan's Nikkei sank 1.1%. The losses followed a nasty end to last week in U.S. markets.


    Trading was volatile in Shanghai, where shares dipped as much as 1.9% before recovering to close with a gain of 0.4%. The benchmark index has shed nearly 18% so far this year.

    Oil, meanwhile, is coming under further pressure as global investors prepare for Iran to kick up production and drive already-plunging prices even lower.

    Asian stock markets start week with a drop - Jan. 17, 2016

  • #37
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    Update, January, 20, 2016. East Asian markets down to 4-year low.
    Markets | Wed Jan 20, 2016

    Asian stocks slide to four-year lows as oil spirals lower

    Asian stock markets slumped to fresh four-year lows on Wednesday as a relentless slide in oil prices snuffed out an attempted rally on Wall Street and dealt a further blow to global investors' appetite for riskier assets.

    Asian stocks slide to four-year lows as oil spirals lower | Reuters

  • #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Black Heart View Post
    [I]Markets have tripled since 2009. It's a cycle. Time to buy soon? ]
    Not just yet...still a little more to go before its sunk to this year's bottom level. I reckon the spring or even July...

  • #39
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    Agreed, I think the bottom is close!

  • #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Agreed, I think the bottom is close!
    2 Questions for ya bro'.

    1. when

    2. where


    I'm waiting to go in, guns loaded. I'll fire when it's the right time....

  • #41
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    I reckon we are almost in oversold territory currently, however sentiment means that the bottom may not have been reached yet. No point in trying to pick the bottom, and even less point " going back in guns blazing"
    The recovery will be slow allowing plenty of time for a measured selective portfolio to be built.
    I would avoid Banks and Commodities as their recovery could be very protracted.
    I speak from an Australian investing perspective, however in today's world market, USA, UK and Europe are all mirroring each other therefore my opinion is the same for these markets.

  • #42
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    We're an hour away from the closing bell for today. IMO this is the downward cycle and no reason for the over-hyped media description.


    Oil crash sends U.S. stocks to 15-month lows
    by Matt Egan
    January 20, 2016

    Oil keeps diving -- and it's taking Wall Street with it.

    The Dow plunged as many as 565 points on Wednesday after crude oil plummeted another 7% to below $27 a barrel. The Dow is currently down about 400 points.

    The S&P 500 slumped 2.2% to its lowest level since October 2014. The Nasdaq is off 1.1%, leaving it down 12% this month.

    It's the latest blow in what's already been the worst start to a year on record for the stock market.

    "Despite improving valuations, global equities continue to get hammered," Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a client note. The firm said the appetite for risk remains "awful."

    Turmoil in China and the crash in crude oil prices remain the main culprits for the market mayhem. While China's stock market dropped "only" 1% overnight, the energy market was considerably less quiet.


    Oil prices crashed another 7% on Wednesday and broke below $27 a barrel for the first time since September 2003. It's currently trading at $26.80 a barrel, down an incredible 28% since the beginning of the year.

    The stock market has been intensely fixated on oil prices this year. The correlation between oil and the S&P 500 is almost perfect, a highly unusual situation compared with historic norms.

    "Sentiment has certainly turned sharply negative. Markets are probably not likely to stabilize until oil finds a bottom," David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, wrote in a client note.

    Crude oil has been slammed in recent days by concerns over sanctions lifting on Iran, which is expected to flood the world with more oil at exactly the worst time, given the supply glut.

    Some oil stocks down 10% -- today alone

    Cheap oil is great for car drivers but it's freaking Wall Street out for many reasons. First, the oil crash is hurting corporate profits, especially in the energy sector. The S&P 500 energy group plunged another 4% on Wednesday, leaving it down 15% this year. Shares of Devon Energy (DVN), Hess (HES) and Murphy Oil (MUR)are all down more than 7%.

    Low oil prices are raising the specter of a wave of bankruptcies in the energy sector. Already, dozens of oil companies have filed for bankruptcy. Investors are also worried that cheap oil signals something negative about the health of the global economy.

    Global markets remain in turmoil, with Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 tumbling into bear market territory on Wednesday. That's market jargon for when an index or a stock dives 20% from a prior high. Stocks in Europe were also rocked, with the benchmark indices in the U.K. and France dropping 3.5% apiece and Italy's market plunging nearly 5%.

    Oil crash sends U.S. stocks to 15-month lows - Jan. 20, 2016

  • #43
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    Here is Harry Dent on January, 9, 2016.

    Don't discount him because of who interviewed him.

    Dent says 2016 may be very, very, bad and gives specific reasons. You do not have to agree, but it's very informative.



  • #44
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    I am not sold on anyone who says these things. I'll watch and see if he's onto something (this guy below).

    He claims that there are massive amounts of margin in derivatives - worse than 2008.

    From some other stats I found, China has very large margin debt in its stock market, and China does affect the US and world.


    Edit in:

    I cannot embed below. Can someone do this?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=-wvPlOLjcGU

  • #45
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    How much margin debt is there in China? Quite a bit, me thinks.

    Markets | Wed Jan 27, 2016
    China shares end lower, taking 2016 losses to $1.8 trillion
    SHANGHAI | BY SAMUEL SHEN AND PETE SWEENEY

    Chinese highly volatile shares ended lower again on Wednesday after plunging on Tuesday, taking losses in 2016 to about 22 percent or 12 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion).

    The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC ended down 0.5 percent, having been up in the morning and as much as 4 percent lower during the day. It tumbled 6.4 percent on Tuesday to its lowest close since Dec. 1, 2014.

    China shares end lower, taking 2016 losses to $1.8 trillion | Reuters

  • #46
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    The day before the 1987 market crash with Lou "the Jew" Rukeyser.


  • #47
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    maybe somehin' maybe not. Are you prepared?

    This S&P 500 Death Cross Could Be The Real Deal
    Technical signal highlighted for its 'rarity and consequence.'

    Lorcan Roche Kelly

    May 18, 2016

    Deep Dive: S&P 500 Death Cross, Stock Market Rotation


    [SIZE="4"Not all "death crosses" are created equal.[SIZE]
    In a note to clients, Intermarket Strategy Ltd. Chief Executive and Strategist Ashraf Laidi points out that the S&P 500's 50-week moving average is falling below its 100-week moving average.

    This "statistically significant" death cross has only happened twice is the past two decades, Laidi points out. The first took place in 2001 and was followed by a 37 percent decline in the index, while the second pattern occurred in 2008 and preceded a 48 percent drop.

    This S&P 500 Death Cross Could Be The Real Deal - Bloomberg

  • #48
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    Marc Faber says the S&P will go way down soon. Well, Mr. Faber, we'll read this and see if you're right or wrong.

    Video at link:


    Marc Faber: S&P is set to crash 50%, giving back 5 years of gains

    Alex Rosenberg
    August 9, 2016

    The notoriously bearish Marc Faber is doubling down on his dire market view.

    The editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation" that stocks are likely to endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.

    "I think we can easily give back five years of capital gains, which would take the market down to around 1,100," Faber said, referring to a level 50 percent below Monday's closing on the S&P 500.

    Marc Faber: S&P is set to crash 50%, giving back 5 years of gains

  • #49
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    Due for a downward cycle when the inflating runs its course.

    By this measure, stocks are massively overvalued
    Rebecca Ungarino | @ungarino

    Friday, 3 Feb 2017

    Market valuation can be measured in many ways, but one comparison of equity values to economic output yields a troubling conclusion.

    Right now, the total market cap of the Wilshire 5000 index as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product is about 120 percent, far above the 45-year average of 75 percent. To some, this indicates that stocks are priced too richly, and hence may not be a good buy at these levels.

    By this measure, stocks are massively overvalued

  • #50
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    Stockman is calling the latest stock market "rally" a Sucker's Rally.

    It indeed is.

    And Stockman reminds us that the debt ceiling will be triggered on March 15th.

    So, the National debt (which annual interest payment must be made and are made) and the stock market bubble.

    Two topics here, so I'll put this post in two places.

    In about 7 days the Mainstream media will start reporting on the debt ceiling in the US.


    Stockman: "After March 15 Everything Will Grind To A Halt"


    by Tyler Durden
    Feb 26, 2017

    Two weeks after David Stockman warned that "the market is apparently pricing in a huge Trump stimulus. But if you just look at the real world out there, the only thing that's going to happen is a fiscal bloodbath and a White House train wreck like never before in U.S. history" and exclaimed that, when looking at markets, "what's going on today is complete insanity" he is back with another interview, this time with Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog in which he, once again warns, that a giant fiscal bloodbatch is coming soon, and urges listeners to pay especially close attention to the March 15, 2017 debt ceiling deadling, at which point everything could "grind to a halt."

    As Greg Hunter writes, former Reagan Administration White House Budget Director David Stockman says financial pain is a mathematical certainty. Stockman explains, “I think we are likely to have more of a fiscal bloodbath rather than fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, not only did the public vote the establishment out, they left on his doorstep the inheritance of 30 years of debt build-up and a fiscal policy that’s been really reckless in the extreme. People would like to think he’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan and we are going to have morning in America. Unfortunately, I don’t think it looks that promising because Trump is inheriting a mess that pales into insignificance what we had to deal with in January of 1981 when I joined the Reagan White House as Budget Director.”

    So, can the Trump bump in the stock market keep going? Stockman, who wrote a book titled “Trumped” predicting a Trump victory in 2016, says, “I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in the hot place that’s going to happen. This is delusional. This is the greatest suckers’ rally of all time. It is based on pure hopium and not any analysis at all as what it will take to push through a big tax cut. Donald Trump is in a trap. Today the debt is $20 trillion. It’s 106% of GDP. . . .

    Trump is inheriting a built-in deficit of $10 trillion over the next decade under current policies that are built in.
    Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less. He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals. He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement. He’s going to do more for the veterans. He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program. You put all that together and it’s madness. It doesn’t even begin to add up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10 trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion that’s already on the books.”

    Then, Stockman drops this bomb and says:


    “I think what people are missing is this date, March 15th 2017. That’s the day that this debt ceiling holiday that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015. That holiday expires. The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion. It will then be law. It will be a hard stop. The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash. We are burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate. By summer, they will be out of cash. Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises. Everything will grind to a halt. I think we will have a government shutdown. There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace. There will be no tax cut. There will be no infrastructure stimulus. There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.”

    Stockman: "After March 15 Everything Will Grind To A Halt" | Zero Hedge

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