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  1. #26
    Head Skivvie Stacker Storekeeper's Avatar
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    Yeah, people like to throw darts at the military infrastructure but what they never talk about is that even though the size of the government has technically grown ... it's in the area of contractors. How much money is saved by turning all those civil service jobs into contractor jobs? The government doesn't have to fund pensions or pay medical/dental care when jobs supporting the government are civilianized.

  2. #27
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    The biggest problem the US ecomony faces is its aging population and the huge welfare bill. This is what will bring the economy to its knees within the next 30 or 40 years, not some two bit fracas in the Middle East.

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Storekeeper
    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman

    The economy is too complicated and globally interdependent to focus on the Executive and Congressional branches.
    You still aren't going to convince me that Presidential policies don't have an impact on the economy. That's horseshit. How do you explain away tools like tax cuts to have an effect of the economy ?
    I agree with you SK, that targeted tax cuts influence the economy. In particular, in certain industries.

    But overall, there are so many factors today that we can't say (or that economists can't say this) that the overal macro-economy is doing well or badly because of a particular Executive or Congress.

    Presidents have the best team of economists with them for constant briefings.

    Also the Federal Reserve (FMOC) and the Chairman.

    Most veteran members of Congress, and definately the high majority of Senators of both parties are very well versed on macro-economic fundamentals.

    It's basically a prerequisite for governing in these times.
    ............

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
    The biggest problem the US ecomony faces is its aging population and the huge welfare bill. This is what will bring the economy to its knees within the next 30 or 40 years, not some two bit fracas in the Middle East.
    We've talked about this before. But the agin population will not be a variable that brings down the US. Think illegal immigrants ... another reason George Bush is so damn savvy.

  5. #30
    Head Skivvie Stacker Storekeeper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman
    But overall, there are so many factors today that we can't say (or that economists can't say this) that the overal macro-economy is doing well or badly because of a particular Executive or Congress.
    The concept of randomness ... so unpredicatble yet such a beautiful thing ... but difficult to understand.

  6. #31
    Member Sanuk Canuk's Avatar
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    Oddly enough when I think of "ole Dubya" savvy does not come to mind first.

  7. #32
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
    The biggest problem the US ecomony faces is its aging population and the huge welfare bill. This is what will bring the economy to its knees within the next 30 or 40 years, not some two bit fracas in the Middle East.
    You know who agrees with Marmite?

    Alan Greenspan.

    He's very carefully stated the ramifications of this.


    The S.S ratio is about 3 : 1

    But the real problem is the medical care. Medicare is a train crash.


    Illegals:

    Illegals will have no effect on the S.S. ratio and coming insolvency, and the Medicare and addiontal medical costs.

    More of them will pay more in taxes.

    But this is a drop in the bucket.

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman
    You know who agrees with Marmite? Alan Greenspan. He's very carefully stated the ramifications of this.
    Not much of a compliment. That guy has screwed up every organisation he's worked for. He's a total dead loss.

  9. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman
    You know who agrees with Marmite? Alan Greenspan. He's very carefully stated the ramifications of this.
    Not much of a compliment. That guy has screwed up every organisation he's worked for. He's a total dead loss.
    You know more about him than me mate, so I better retract that.

    I started to read the fawning "Maestro," which supposed to be a biography of him by Bob Woodward, but it's really dry, to me.

  10. #35
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    Yeah, Greenspan was a fucking poseur. Old fool always late to the game. The new guy seems to be better in charge. However, markets loved Greenspan. He was fucking God. He has corrected a few potential disasters, but he could have done a better job with the Dot Boom and the property speculation.

  11. #36
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    It doesn't really matter what anyone does with the US economy. One day, not too far away it's going to crash massively, and every economy will be affected in a detrimental way. It's too late to stop the inevitable, so whoever is wearing the pants in the US may as well carry on as they have been doing for years and just keep on printing money and selling bonds, and just hope that the crash isn't going to come during their administration period.

  12. #37
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    Store Keeper, you don't work for Fox News, do ya? That sounds like something you'd hear the morning show cast saying about the latest Bush news conference! Not that I ever watch Fox News, or the morning show....

  13. #38
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    ^ I don't agree entirely. It's possible to turn things around rapidly. You can see how a fuckwit like GW Bush can be a liability for consumer confidence. Since we are consumers driven economies, public sentiment is unfortunately what drives us. And that's when public figures can have an impact. They hold the carrot stick.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
    It doesn't really matter what anyone does with the US economy. One day, not too far away it's going to crash massively, and every economy will be affected in a detrimental way. It's too late to stop the inevitable, so whoever is wearing the pants in the US may as well carry on as they have been doing for years and just keep on printing money and selling bonds, and just hope that the crash isn't going to come during their administration period.
    I'm no economist obviously, but there is debate on whether or not the U.S. economy will "crash."

    The days of crashes are related to currencies, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong).

    I do see a decline in the standard of living. This has been happening since the 1950s, and more specifically since the 1970s.

    Storekeeper:

    The concept of randomness ... so unpredicatble yet such a beautiful thing ... but difficult to understand.
    It's not a concept of randomness. Just many factors, both domestic and international.

  15. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman

    I'm no economist obviously, but there is debate on whether or not the U.S. economy will "crash."

    The days of crashes are related to currencies, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong).
    they were debating the same thing b4 the big crash in the early 80's and again in the 90's.

    its gonna crash - just cos everyone gets excited and trys to come up woith reasins why the market is different this time....

    hohoho - make me laff

  16. #41
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    The one big thing the US has going for it is that there is enough money floating around in it to turn the problems around. Third world countries get screwed because their interest on their debt matches their GDP so it is impossible to keep up let alone pay the debt down.

    Canada was facing a deficit crisis about 15 years ago and through allot of painful fiscal restraint, things are back on track. The states can do the same, the problem is to find the will to do it. I wonder what the debt service costs are for the US debt as a portion of the current budget. I would not be surprised if the debt service cost is a significant portion of the current annual deficits.

    On the other hand allowing the currency to devalue helps at both ends of the scale. It will reduce the amount of the debt as a portion of GDP and it also will spur exports to mitigate the trade imbalance. The biggest negative issues are that this will lead to inflation, erosion of wealth and higher interest rates.

    I would guess we will see a moderately painful correction but I can't see it becoming a collapse. I would also guess you will see a reduction of the standard of living for most folks. I still think one of the primary issues with the US economy is the inequitable division of wealth. To much of the money is in the hands of a few for a 1st world country.

  17. #42
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingwillyhggtb
    Quote Originally Posted by Milkman

    I'm no economist obviously, but there is debate on whether or not the U.S. economy will "crash."

    The days of crashes are related to currencies, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong).
    they were debating the same thing b4 the big crash in the early 80's and again in the 90's.
    There was never a "crash" in the U.S. in the 1980s.

    There was a correction in 1987, which was a 500 point drop, but the percentage was about 22% (?)

    The term "crash" is a misnomer.

    In 1929 there was a crash. And people jumpted out of windows because of Margin debt. Unemployment hit 25%

    its gonna crash - just cos everyone gets excited and trys to come up woith reasins why the market is different this time....
    Even the contrarians aren't saying this. Some do say there will be a decline, or dip. Note* not necessarily just a correction.

  18. #43
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    ^ ok ok now your being slightly pedantic - correction / recession / depression / dip / decline.

    all more or less parts of the same slippery slope innit!

    ok - perhaps the US may not crash but the dollar is certainly gonna drop ........a lot - average workers are gonna loose their job - investors are gonna loose money

    in short the USA will become a nonfavourabe place to put money into and many ppl are gonna hurt / feel the pain.

  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingwillyhggtb
    ^ ok ok now your being slightly pedantic - correction / recession / depression / dip / decline.

    all more or less parts of the same slippery slope innit!

    ok - perhaps the US may not crash but the dollar is certainly gonna drop ........a lot - average workers are gonna loose their job - investors are gonna loose money

    in short the USA will become a nonfavourabe place to put money into and many ppl are gonna hurt / feel the pain.
    I agree 100%.

    But don't use the term "crash" if it's not the appropriate term.

    There won't be a crash.

  20. #45
    Head Skivvie Stacker Storekeeper's Avatar
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    Army Exceeds Recruiting Goal

    By Mark Noonan

    As I always say, consult not what people say, but what they do:
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Army said Friday it surpassed its recruiting goal for May, marking the 12th consecutive month of meeting or exceeding its target.
    With a booming economy, the only explanation for this must be continued patriotism and support for the overall War on Terrorism, including the liberation of Iraq element of it. Polls can say this, that and the other thing - but signing up when you know you're likely to be sent to a combat zone is a lot more substantial than answering a question over the phone. Anyone can say they are against the war - but these magnificent men and women are showing they support the war.
    As I've also said, a lot of people will be surprised at the results this November, but I won't be.

  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Storekeeper
    Army Exceeds Recruiting Goal

    By Mark Noonan

    As I always say, consult not what people say, but what they do:
    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Army said Friday it surpassed its recruiting goal for May, marking the 12th consecutive month of meeting or exceeding its target.
    With a booming economy, the only explanation for this must be continued patriotism and support for the overall War on Terrorism, including the liberation of Iraq element of it. Polls can say this, that and the other thing - but signing up when you know you're likely to be sent to a combat zone is a lot more substantial than answering a question over the phone. Anyone can say they are against the war - but these magnificent men and women are showing they support the war.
    As I've also said, a lot of people will be surprised at the results this November, but I won't be.
    That should thin out the rednecks a bit, 'cos no one in their right mind would sign up at the moment. It'd be like joining a company that's just about to go bust.

  22. #47
    Head Skivvie Stacker Storekeeper's Avatar
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    Narrow minded retort.

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Storekeeper
    Narrow minded retort.
    If they weren't allowed this place would be OPs only.

  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Storekeeper
    Army Exceeds Recruiting Goal

    By Mark Noonan

    As I always say, consult not what people say, but what they do:

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Army said Friday it surpassed its recruiting goal for May, marking the 12th consecutive month of meeting or exceeding its target.

    With a booming economy, the only explanation for this must be continued patriotism and support for the overall War on Terrorism, including the liberation of Iraq element of it. Polls can say this, that and the other thing - but signing up when you know you're likely to be sent to a combat zone is a lot more substantial than answering a question over the phone. Anyone can say they are against the war - but these magnificent men and women are showing they support the war.
    As I've also said, a lot of people will be surprised at the results this November, but I won't be.
    You must be desperate for good news. What's wrong ? troops morale is at an all time low ?

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingwillyhggtb
    ^ ok ok now your being slightly pedantic - correction / recession / depression / dip / decline.

    all more or less parts of the same slippery slope innit!
    It's not pedantic at all.

    A correction has nothing to do with a recesion, depression,dip, or decline.

    A recession is not a depression.

    A depresion is not a recession.

    A dip is usually considered to be a correction, and dips/correction happen during high growth and favorble economic times.


    There won't be a crash. There may be more inflation; maybe not. There may be declining standard of living.

    Don't get me wrong. The U.S. is NOT in good shape economically. Not in good shape at all.

    Things have not been good in the U.S. since the late 1970s.

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