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  1. #1
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Russian Population Decline

    With Russia in the news lately, and the talk of a more emboldened Russia, Russia does have some issues to deal with. A declining life expectancy, poverty outsite of Moscow, HIV, and other other medical issues, etc. There is talk of a potential confrontation with Russia. Russia may have natural resources and military prowess, but.....

    So, do you think Russia will be a force to be reckoned with in the future, considered the Russian stance with Poland?

    ....a few observations about Russia's demographic predicament are pertinent. The United Nations publishes population projections for Russia up to 2050, and I have extended these to 2100. If the UN demographers are correct, Russia's adult population will fall from about 90 million today to only 20 million by the end of the century. Russia is the only country where abortions are more numerous than live births, a devastating gauge of national despair.

    Under Putin, the Russian government introduced an ambitious natalist program to encourage Russian women to have children. As he warned in his 2006 state of the union address, "You know that our country's population is declining by an average of almost 700,000 people a year. We have raised this issue on many occasions but have for the most part done very little to address it ... First, we need to lower the death rate. Second, we need an effective migration policy. And third, we need to increase the birth rate."

    Russia's birth rate has risen slightly during the past several years, perhaps in response to Putin's natalism, but demographers observe that the number of Russian women of childbearing age is about to fall off a cliff. No matter how much the birth rate improves, the sharp fall in the number of prospective mothers will depress the number of births. UN forecasts show the number of Russians aged 20-29 falling from 25 million today to only 10 million by 2040.

    Russia, in other words, has passed the point of no return in terms of fertility. Although roughly four-fifths of the population of the Russian Federation is considered ethnic Russians, fertility is much higher among the Muslim minorities in Central Asia. Some demographers predict a Muslim majority in Russia by 2040, and by mid-century at the latest.

    Part of Russia's response is to encourage migration of Russians left outside the borders of the federation after the collapse of communism in 1991. An estimated 6.5 million Russians from the former Soviet Union now work in Russia as undocumented aliens, and a new law will regularize their status. Only 20,000 Russian "compatriots" living abroad, however, have applied for immigration to the federation under a new law designed to draw Russians back.
    Link & entire: Asia Times Online :: Central Asian News and current affairs, Russia, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan
    ............

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat
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    Actually, the collapse of the USSR proved to be a demographic catastrophe for Russia. Deprived of the Socialist safety net, living standards plummeted for the average Russian.

    This lead to the inevitable consequences- increasing malnutrition, disease, declining birth rate, spiralling drug abuse, prostitution and hence AIDS. Meanwhile, a few people (mainly crooks) got rich.

    At one stage, the average life expectancy of a Russian was over ten years less than under the Soviet system.

    They face a major demographic challenge, although I doubt the numbers will be as bad as the UN projects.

  3. #3
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    Marmite the Dog's Avatar
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    Which other countries have declining populations? I thought that most Euro countries and Japan have and sub-Saharan Africa seems to be a bit iffy these days.

  4. #4
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog
    Which other countries have declining populations?
    Seems there are several including those you mention.

    Population growth rate(%) 2008 country ranks

  5. #5
    Elite Mumbler
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    Not sure why so many Brits whine about immigrants.

  6. #6
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    The graph shows the population peaking in 2010, erm.. it's now 2008.

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel
    Not sure why so many Brits whine about immigrants.
    We generally only whine about the criminal element. We feel that being a criminal should be a protected job, a la Thailand.

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat Texpat's Avatar
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    ^^ They represent populations older than 20.

    I don't think the numbers of live births will change in the interceding years. Unless they fold Georgia back into their sphere of influence.

  9. #9
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    ^ Actually Georgia has a declining population too, as does Ukraine.

  10. #10
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Seem to recall something a few months back where alcohol consumption and declining birth rates tracked closely in many countries. Guess I should do some research and find some statistics. Maybe they're just to drunk to fuck!

  11. #11
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    Could it just be due to emigrations ?

    Could it just be due to an ever rising trend of large-scale emigrations of the Russians, especially the wealthy ones out of Russia to such rich and resourceful countries like U.S.A, Canada etc ?

  12. #12
    bkkandrew
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    Quote Originally Posted by ntuc1980 View Post
    Could it just be due to an ever rising trend of large-scale emigrations of the Russians, especially the wealthy ones out of Russia to such rich and resourceful countries like U.S.A, Canada etc ?
    And Londonistan...

  13. #13
    bkkandrew
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    On a more serious note, I read somewhere that a potential flashpoint in the future would be the land-poor chinese seeking to expand into the sparsely-populated bordering regions of Russia. I will try and find the article.

  14. #14
    bkkandrew
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    Ah, yes:

    <snip>

    Nearly 100,000 Chinese illegally live in Russia as traders and laborers, federal officials estimate, and thousands more are here on tourist or temporary worker visas. The population is growing so rapidly that the Chinese could become the dominant population in parts of the Primorsky and Khabarovsky krais in the next century, the Federal Migration Service has stated. Ivan Fedotov, chief of the service’s immigration directorate, has even gone so far as to say this could lead to territorial losses if the Chinese intervene to protect their population.
    From:

    Russia’s Chinese population grows

  15. #15
    I am in Jail

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    The Chinese are quite interesting. They have always migrated to do better business and just lurk in the background.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by bkkandrew View Post
    On a more serious note, I read somewhere that a potential flashpoint in the future would be the land-poor chinese seeking to expand into the sparsely-populated bordering regions of Russia. I will try and find the article.
    China is not short of land. If it were as densly populated as France it would have multiple billions

  17. #17
    bkkandrew
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    ^It is short of fertile farming land.

  18. #18
    Custom Title Changer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon
    The Chinese are quite interesting. They have always migrated to do better business and just lurk in the background.
    I thought that was the Jews.

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat Jesus Jones's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ntuc1980 View Post
    Could it just be due to an ever rising trend of large-scale emigrations of the Russians, especially the wealthy ones out of Russia to such rich and resourceful countries like U.S.A, Canada etc ?
    Russia has the highest concentration of Millionaires.

    Russia also has huge oil reserve in the north which haven't been tapped.

    US, and NATO know this!

  20. #20
    Thailand Expat

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    Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Malaysia are all in population decline.

    Singapore and Japan are further ahead than the others, but they are catching up.

    Look up the Economist last year and it had them listed with some pretty graphs.

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jesus Jones View Post
    Russia has the highest concentration of Millionaires.
    Highest concentration of Millionaires?

    What exactly do you mean by this?

    They don't have the most, and the don't have the most as a ratio of total population?

    They are towards the top of the list of nations with the highest increase in the number of Millionaires - but that ain't that hard to accomplish when you start out with a fairly low number in the first place.
    "Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it, you'd have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, it takes religion" - Steven Weinberg

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