1. #6676
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    8,405
    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Just to clarify, because extending A50 doesn't really help unless there is a solution on offer that warrants the extension. The EU is having elections in May and has reallocated MEP seats on the basis of the UK having withdrawn. It will be difficult to ask them to delay the elections or change the MEP allocations unless a firm commitment to Brexit (or no Brexit) has been provided...
    I don't know if that post is yours or linked, but "just to clarify" sounds as though it is leading to something worth considering.

    First answer one very easy question: Why would the EU concede an extension?

    Clues:

    Don't swallow the Belgian's bile; the EU want us in not out, the gods were gobsmacked by the Ref1 result, and have since done all they could to negate Brexit.

    They're sitting pretty right now, having trounced May and watching as gov, parties and country are divided; but they get into the spirit by scrambling to implement cosmetic measures for public consumption against a no deal, knowing there will be no no-deal.

    They also know the only real options after the crap deal was so soundly rejected are to revoke A50 or Ref2 with a stay option which will almost certainly win since the EU and Remainers won't be so complacent next time around. ie if Ref2 is announced, the propaganda machine goes into warp drive.

    Meanwhile, extending A50 requires unanimous agreement by all 27 members, and unless there is something substantial in it for the EU this won't happen. What is substantial from the EU pov, short of Ref2?

    Revoking A50 without Ref2 leads to a constitutional crisis, civil unrest and other fun stuff, so no need to describe the likely consequences of simply ignoring Ref1, not even in this thread.

    They have manoeuvred May into a corner, almost certainly with her consent, and all they need to do is wait as the clock ticks down; they don't even need to squeeze, our PM has done that for them.

    So, what is there to clarify in regard to an A50 extension?

  2. #6677
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    15,824
    I really don't think Troy or anyone else needs advice on disregarding buttplug's trolling drivel.

    Troy....you've correctly likened crashing out without an agreement with committing suicide.

    Obviously extending the date that will happen unless an acceptable solution is found does help.

  3. #6678
    Custom user
    Neverna's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Behind a rhododendron bush
    Posts
    16,897
    May seeks treaty with Varadkar to bin backstop

    British prime minister Theresa May wants to offer a bilateral treaty to Ireland in order to remove the “backstop” from the EU withdrawal treaty and prevent a hard border by other means.

    The proposal is part of May’s plan B to salvage her Brexit deal. Aides think it would “decontaminate” the withdrawal agreement so it could be supported by the DUP and Tory Eurosceptics.

    However, last night the Irish government indicated it will reject a bilateral treaty with Britain if it is proposed by the prime minister when she addresses the House of Commons tomorrow. Senior Irish government sources told The Sunday Times the proposal was “not something we would entertain”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/i...stop-qffsgxjk8
    signature

  4. #6679
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    1,779
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Revoking A50 without Ref2 leads to a constitutional crisis
    Can you quote the sections or give reference to the specific parts of the UK Constitution that will be in crisis?

  5. #6680
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    8,405
    learn to distinguish between c and C; try google, here's a start for your exhaustive research:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=cons...hrome&ie=UTF-8

  6. #6681
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    1,779
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    learn to distinguish between c and C; try google
    Can you distinguish between 'L' and 'l' and which one you should use at the start of your post sentence?
    ----------

    Getting back on topic, are you now saying this "constitution" of yours doesn't exist and if so, why should we care if it's in crisis?

    If it does exist, as per the original request: can you quote the sections or give reference to the specific parts that will be in crisis?

  7. #6682
    Thailand Expat
    Takeovers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Last Online
    Today @ 12:53 PM
    Location
    Berlin Germany
    Posts
    5,652
    Quote Originally Posted by Neverna View Post
    Senior Irish government sources told The Sunday Times the proposal was “not something we would entertain”.
    Yes, of course. It is basically a request for Ireland to leave the EU. Who in his right mind would do something like that?

  8. #6683
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Last Online
    Today @ 11:38 AM
    Location
    Sumatra
    Posts
    3,286
    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    I really don't think Troy or anyone else needs advice on disregarding buttplug's trolling drivel.

    Troy....you've correctly likened crashing out without an agreement with committing suicide.

    Obviously extending the date that will happen unless an acceptable solution is found does help.
    In the unlikely event of no deal Brexit life will go on Cyrille. It would be great if you stoppped saying that the sky will fall in. Yes there will be difficulties, but it’s one of the few things that Brits are really good at, dealing with problems.

    Imagine dealing with the fall out from 27 nations floundering all at once when the Hotel California social engineering experiment fails.
    Oh yes it will. The nations that currently make up the union are too diverse for the experiment, and much too dissimilar for further integration. It is certain to end in true chaos and failure.

    By leaving now, the UK will be ahead of the collapse, and avoid the devastation of the Euro collapsing under the weight of members unrealistic expectations.

    The UK will struggle for a while, but will emerge better for the experience, and in a position to advise chaotic EU members when the fall happens.

    You will no doubt have noticed the recent surge in members preparing for no deal. It’s already getting easier for UK and we are not even out yet. Your doomsday predictions are looking pretty silly really.

  9. #6684
    Thailand Expat
    Dragonfly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:54 PM
    Posts
    11,147
    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    In the unlikely event of no deal Brexit life will go on Cyrille. It would be great if you stoppped saying that the sky will fall in. Yes there will be difficulties, but it’s one of the few things that Brits are really good at, dealing with problems.
    clearly

    you guys are seriously out of touch with reality,

    and yes the Belgian is right, everyone wants you to leave, was talking again last week to a diplomat stationed in the UK for 20 years, and say we need to let them in their ego trip, and witness the last fall of the Great British Empire with a round of applause
    Last edited by Dragonfly; 20-01-2019 at 04:18 PM.

  10. #6685
    Thailand Expat
    Dragonfly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:54 PM
    Posts
    11,147
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Yes, of course. It is basically a request for Ireland to leave the EU. Who in his right mind would do something like that?
    Maybot

  11. #6686
    Thailand Expat
    Dragonfly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:54 PM
    Posts
    11,147
    so clearly a change of leadership is needed, since she is incapable of changing her tune or offering a credible alternative

    so why bother with all those votes in the coming weeks?

  12. #6687
    Thailand Expat
    Dragonfly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:54 PM
    Posts
    11,147
    Downing Street warns MPs not to block Brexit
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46936405

    Attempts by backbench MPs to remove the government's power to deliver Brexit are "extremely concerning", Downing Street has said.

    On Monday one group of MPs will present a bill that could allow Brexit to be delayed if Parliament does not approve an EU withdrawal agreement.

    According to the Sunday Times, another group led by Dominic Grieve wishes to pause Brexit by suspending Article 50.

    But Downing Street said it was "vital" MPs delivered on the referendum result.

  13. #6688
    Thailand Expat
    Troy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:19 AM
    Location
    In the EU
    Posts
    7,392
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    I don't know if that post is yours or linked, but "just to clarify" sounds as though it is leading to something worth considering.

    First answer one very easy question: Why would the EU concede an extension?

    Clues:

    Don't swallow the Belgian's bile; the EU want us in not out, the gods were gobsmacked by the Ref1 result, and have since done all they could to negate Brexit.

    They're sitting pretty right now, having trounced May and watching as gov, parties and country are divided; but they get into the spirit by scrambling to implement cosmetic measures for public consumption against a no deal, knowing there will be no no-deal.

    They also know the only real options after the crap deal was so soundly rejected are to revoke A50 or Ref2 with a stay option which will almost certainly win since the EU and Remainers won't be so complacent next time around. ie if Ref2 is announced, the propaganda machine goes into warp drive.

    Meanwhile, extending A50 requires unanimous agreement by all 27 members, and unless there is something substantial in it for the EU this won't happen. What is substantial from the EU pov, short of Ref2?

    Revoking A50 without Ref2 leads to a constitutional crisis, civil unrest and other fun stuff, so no need to describe the likely consequences of simply ignoring Ref1, not even in this thread.

    They have manoeuvred May into a corner, almost certainly with her consent, and all they need to do is wait as the clock ticks down; they don't even need to squeeze, our PM has done that for them.

    So, what is there to clarify in regard to an A50 extension?
    I think you have difficulty understanding my posts. Possibly I have been out of the UK for too long and my English is falterimg to the point I'm unable to communicate my thoughts to blithering idiots.

  14. #6689
    Thailand Expat
    Troy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:19 AM
    Location
    In the EU
    Posts
    7,392
    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    In the unlikely event of no deal Brexit life will go on Cyrille. It would be great if you stoppped saying that the sky will fall in. Yes there will be difficulties, but it’s one of the few things that Brits are really good at, dealing with problems.

    Imagine dealing with the fall out from 27 nations floundering all at once when the Hotel California social engineering experiment fails.
    Oh yes it will. The nations that currently make up the union are too diverse for the experiment, and much too dissimilar for further integration. It is certain to end in true chaos and failure.

    By leaving now, the UK will be ahead of the collapse, and avoid the devastation of the Euro collapsing under the weight of members unrealistic expectations.

    The UK will struggle for a while, but will emerge better for the experience, and in a position to advise chaotic EU members when the fall happens.

    You will no doubt have noticed the recent surge in members preparing for no deal. It’s already getting easier for UK and we are not even out yet. Your doomsday predictions are looking pretty silly really.
    Talking of sky, did you read the problem with UK aviation following a no-deal Brexit? I can post the nine freedoms, of which the UK will lose five immediately, before losing more after 1 year. The May agreement means the UK will remain in EASA and continue to make contributions. How much the UK end up paying each year to stay in certain agencies is yet to be agreed. Paying nothing means you'll get nothing and CAA pretty much hands over to JAR currently.

  15. #6690
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Last Online
    Today @ 11:38 AM
    Location
    Sumatra
    Posts
    3,286
    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Talking of sky, did you read the problem with UK aviation following a no-deal Brexit? I can post the nine freedoms, of which the UK will lose five immediately, before losing more after 1 year. The May agreement means the UK will remain in EASA and continue to make contributions. How much the UK end up paying each year to stay in certain agencies is yet to be agreed. Paying nothing means you'll get nothing and CAA pretty much hands over to JAR currently.
    Yes and although it also causes problems for other countries in the EU I’m sure you understand that, there will be situations that need fixing. Not all of them have mutually conflicting needs. Unless of course you are saying that is not possible?

    Juncker Walt.

  16. #6691
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Last Online
    Today @ 11:38 AM
    Location
    Sumatra
    Posts
    3,286

  17. #6692
    Thailand Expat
    Dragonfly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:54 PM
    Posts
    11,147
    told you they would find a way to suspend A50

    called it, you didn't, as usual

  18. #6693
    Member
    Bettyboo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:53 PM
    Location
    Bangkok
    Posts
    29,135
    This is pretty much where we're at:


  19. #6694
    Thailand Expat
    buriramboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:41 PM
    Posts
    11,711
    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    told you they would find a way to suspend A50

    called it, you didn't, as usual
    I think everyone is pretty much agreed that if Doris doesn't get her deal through A50 will be extended. Talk of Mogg and his merry band of Brexiteers maybe going to support Doris deal, we shall see.

  20. #6695
    Member
    Bettyboo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Last Online
    Today @ 09:53 PM
    Location
    Bangkok
    Posts
    29,135
    ^ if the backstop is taken out (and the EU have always said they don't benefit from it and don't want to use it) then you're probably close to a deal that could pass through parliament because it kicks many of the problems down the road, but does give a timetable of sorts.

    A50 should not be extended and ref2 should not occur. Basically, we need to get on with this; hopefully through a deal, but leaving on March 29th regardless.

    This seems a reasonable sum up (although I don't personally like the last idea...)

    How do I post these pictures???

  21. #6696
    Thailand Expat
    Troy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:19 AM
    Location
    In the EU
    Posts
    7,392
    ^ Good summing up of the Maybot and why she is very much at fault . Brexit was never on Party lines but she failed to include all parties in her discussions. Even after such a heavy defeat in Parliament she is still failing to discuss solutions that the majority of Parliament would agree.

    A compromise requires discussion and people to buy into it to succeed. She has failed miserably to discuss in a way that could unite her Cabinet or Parliament let alone open opportunities for compromise with the EU.

    She really is not very good at leading and should have resigned...

  22. #6697
    lom
    lom is offline
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Trapped in an old mans body
    Posts
    8,315
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    if the backstop is taken out (and the EU have always said they don't benefit from it and don't want to use it) then you're probably close to a deal that could pass through parliament because it kicks many of the problems down the road, but does give a timetable of sorts.
    The backstop is already a kicking of problems down the road.. You want a backstop backstop?

  23. #6698
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    1,779
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    we need to get on with this
    Brexiteers need to stop repeating this nonsense slogan, it makes you sound incredibly stupid like you don't understand there is an agreed withdrawal period in place that hasn't expired yet.

    Did you think the UK would leave the same day the referendum result was announced or?



    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    we need to get on with this; hopefully through a deal, but leaving on March 29th regardless.
    So if we "just get on with it" and crash out of the EU on the 29th March with no deal, can you tell me what happens to the 54% of UK imports which come from the EU?

    Maybe you can start with the fact the UK imports 30% of it's food from the EU as that is a rather pressing matter?

    Bearing in mind that any blockage or slowing of these food imports will lead to empty shelves in UK shops.

  24. #6699
    Thailand Expat
    Troy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:19 AM
    Location
    In the EU
    Posts
    7,392
    It's Sunday, let's have a little humour mixed in....


  25. #6700
    hangin' around cyrille's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    15,824
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    This seems a reasonable sum up (although I don't personally like the last idea...)
    You call it 'the last idea'.

    It's actually the conclusion to the situation as he describes it.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •