Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Originally Posted by Switch

No deal is certainly better than May’s shambolic trap. Farage is a busted flush. It does no one any credit to mention him or other far right loons. It’s akin to the idiot buttfly mentioning diapers, every time he loses access to another bbc quote.
This is not about history, empire or even immigration. It’s about recognizing the opportunity to leave a broken experiment in social and political engineering. Being the first country to do it is rife with problems and no one with any sense is denying that.
You can speculate all you want about how bad you think it might be. But that’s just pessimistic and a fear of the unknown and a fear of change.
Im an optimist and I believe that the country will, eventually thrive outside this broken, over ambitious union.

No you're not an optimist, you're just an average loon.

of course he is a loon, all those Brexitshitters are,

and that's why we should support them to go all the way to that self destructive path

There will be no Irish border as who is going to build it, the EU army?

Good time to give Northern Ireland back to the Irish.

^^ The WTO rules are clear and both the UK and Eire know that border checks will be required in the case of Hard Brexit. Failure to comply will breach the preferred country rule meaning that all other countries can trade under the same rules. UK may end up trying this but doubt EU would. This, together with the GFA is one of the aces that the EU holds.

Obviously the EU holds all the aces in its hand, along with the kings and queens. The UK holds the finance joker but little else, not even a pair of jokers in Farage and Rees-Mogg will help them.

Found a country that doesn't have a trade agreement with its neighbours yet?

2up
The Catholic, you mean?

I reckon Commander Switch will start WW3 before that will happen.

Originally Posted by Switch

This is not about immigration. It’s about recognizing the opportunity to leave a broken experiment in social and political engineering.

When I researched the list of reasons why people voted to leave the EU, I didn't see "to leave a broken experiment in social and political engineering." in the list, but apparently Immigration was the number one reason.

Originally Posted by Troy

^^ The WTO rules are clear and both the UK and Eire know that border checks will be required in the case of Hard Brexit. Failure to comply will breach the preferred country rule meaning that all other countries can trade under the same rules. UK may end up trying this but doubt EU would. This, together with the GFA is one of the aces that the EU holds.

Obviously the EU holds all the aces in its hand, along with the kings and queens. The UK holds the finance joker but little else, not even a pair of jokers in Farage and Rees-Mogg will help them.

Found a country that doesn't have a trade agreement with its neighbours yet?

Why would I care how other countries in the world trade with their neighbours? You still seem under the misguided illusion that WTO will be long term if it happens at all.

How the fuck do the EU hold all the aces when we have a massive deficit with them? They need access to our markets and I'm pretty sure they'd like it on the terms they have now.

Again who is going to build this border both the UK and Ireland have said they won't. Ireland said they wouldn't build it even in case of no deal. Brussels has used Ireland as it's pawn and that wierd Irish PM has overplayed his hand as he's now realising if you keep up to date with the latest news.

Originally Posted by buriramboy

Why would I care how other countries in the world trade with their neighbours?

We covered this already...

Originally Posted by foobar

Brexiteers have been saying for years now that the UK can simply crash out of the EU on WTO terms like its the easiest thing in the world ...yet you are unable to provide any real world examples of other countries doing the same.

Once more with feeling:

^^ Can you name a country that has no trade agreement with its neighbours and carries out trade on WTO terms only?

...so it's looking like a hard NO after all?

Errrm no, Brexiteers were saying we'd have a free trade deal with the EU and eventually we will, but leaving on WTO terms is preferable to Doris deal.

Most of the world trades on WTO terms. Have a read of the head honcho of JCBs letter in the Telegraph or Times forget where it was published now, he doesn't seem to worry about trading on WTO terms but guess we should ignore people like him and listen to x civil servants on TD who couldn't hack it in the private sector under any conditions so chose a life sucking off the government teat.

Right, no examples of countries trading under wto rules who also don't have a trading deal with closest neighbours, which is what a hard Brexit will look like...got it!

Amazing how these Brexiteers suddenly don't care about immigration and are now praying for deals with the EU ...my my, how the tone has changed and the tail is firmly between the legs.

WTF are you talking about, freedom of movement ends under Doris deal or a clean Brexit, that issue is sorted.

Again how the fuck would I know or care about how countries in Africa, Asia and S. America trade with neighbours and on What terms as it had zero relevance to anything.

And who is praying for a deal with the EU? That would be remoaners now they realise the last 2 years of them trying to stop Brexit has now ended with the very real prospect of a clean Brexit.

You've answered your own question about why the EU holds all the aces. It's because the UK needs a trading agreement with them. The UK will always blink first.

And you don't think the EU needs a deal with us being their biggest market who they have a massive surplus with. WTO rules out the customs union, slash business taxes make the UK even more business friendly, where is the downside?

the loons are going to go for it

Firms told to prepare for no-deal Brexit
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46645130

Businesses that trade with the EU need to take steps now to prepare for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, a government minister has warned.

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride told the BBC's Today programme "there is a call to action now".

HMRC has published an update to its advice on how firms should prepare for a no-deal scenario.

However, Mr Stride called the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal an "unlikely event".

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Stride said: "The time is now, there is a call to action now.

"Those who are importing or exporting into and out of the EU 27, in the unlikely event that there is a no-deal at the end of March, will need to take certain steps. They need to do that now."

How's the progress in Paris going to take over from London as the financial centre of Europe? Anyone other than North Africans want to live there anymore?

these, from 30 years ago. spot on really.

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

the loons are going to go for it

Firms told to prepare for no-deal Brexit
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46645130

Businesses that trade with the EU need to take steps now to prepare for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, a government minister has warned.

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride told the BBC's Today programme "there is a call to action now".

HMRC has published an update to its advice on how firms should prepare for a no-deal scenario.

However, Mr Stride called the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal an "unlikely event".

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Stride said: "The time is now, there is a call to action now.

"Those who are importing or exporting into and out of the EU 27, in the unlikely event that there is a no-deal at the end of March, will need to take certain steps. They need to do that now."

So happy for you, finding another bbc link. The you.gov site is much clearer. Less scary hyperbole.

Originally Posted by foobar

Right, no examples of countries trading under wto rules who also don't have a trading deal with closest neighbours, which is what a hard Brexit will look like...got it!

Amazing how these Brexiteers suddenly don't care about immigration and are now praying for deals with the EU ...my my, how the tone has changed and the tail is firmly between the legs.

The closer it gets, the more the EU have to lose. You will not enjoy them climbing down to appease the Germans and the French. Those two countries have a lot to lose.
You are deluded, yet highly amusing.

Originally Posted by buriramboy

Still continues to fucking amaze me how all these other 180 countries in the world can survive without being members of the EU.

You obviously need to be quoted each time or you forget what you said and the relevance of subsequent posts.

These other countries survive because they already have trade agreements with their closest neighbours. Many have extended further with FTAs beyond their neighbours, including the EU.

The UK not only enjoys seamless trade with the EU, it enjoys access to further markets through the FTAs the EU has with many other countries in the world, which is still expanding.

Does the context of the question now become clear? Brexit campaign leaders were, at best, deceitful with their claim that WTO rules are used by everyone else and it would be easy for the UK to fall back on them.

There, I've spelt it out for you....

England can't even cope with shitty plastic drone, so I'm not really sure the country is up to a hard Brexit. If it's so grand why are they even having to consider putting the army on standby?

Originally Posted by Switch

The closer it gets, the more the EU have to lose. You will not enjoy them climbing down to appease the Germans and the French. Those two countries have a lot to lose.
You are deluded, yet highly amusing.

They have clearly shown they aren't blinking and PM May's Government have clearly shown their hand. There will be no significant changes by the EU because they can't do anything more. Why do Brexiteers think more can be done?

Originally Posted by buriramboy

How's the progress in Paris going to take over from London as the financial centre of Europe? Anyone other than North Africans want to live there anymore?

New York took over top spot from London 3 months ago. Brexit concerns meant London taking a big hit already.

Why are people hung up over a free trade agreement with the EU? Many FTAs make no economic sense at all. They over promise and under deliver. The problems are more to do with customs inspection than tariffs. The EU has over protected many areas for years and this is unlikely to change and many tariffs will still apply, probably in the farming sector especially which of course will effect UK farmers as well. The EU will be just as anxious as the UK (if not more) to make sure their trade surplus continues. The EU knows that the country in the box seat is the one with the trade deficit as they have far less to lose. Hence why they have done their level best to keep the UK in an agreement that keeps the majority benefit within the EU. This does not mean that it's all sweetness and light for the Brits. They will no doubt take a hit to their GDP which will cause some pain in the short term, as will the EU although the shear size of the EU will disipate some of the shock, with a few countries such as the Irish republic, so dependant on the UK, probably taking the biggest hit. The EU budget of course will take a hit and the deficit will need to be taken up by the net contributers principally Germany, France and Italy and to a degree, the lesser net contributors. The Recipients are unlikely to go unscathed as they will be expected to tighten their belts.
The EU will make the transit of goods as seamless as possible because it is in their own interest to make sure there is as little effect on goods and jobs in the EU as much as possible. Any economic downturn will affect the EU as well as the UK, the shear size of trade between the two makes that a given.
I find it laughable to think that British business has not in the last 2 years checked alternative and probably cheaper products from other countries. Australia and many other countries would by now have already spoken to UK companies about what can be supplied, certainly many farm products, goods and service which in many cases maybe a cheaper alternative to the EU.
Australia, as one of the pioneers of bilateral FTAs has had a lot of experience in negotiating agreements but has yet to see little if any benefit from them. The Aus/USA FTA for example which has now been going for 13 years, has only given a benefit to the USA which had an initial pre FTA trade surplus with Australia turned into a massive surplus after the FTA. They only remove selected trade barriers as can be seen with the USA still having tariffs on many australian farm exports despite their massive trade surplus. (Possibly one reason trump did not put tariffs on Australian steel. He found out who was getting the best deal on that FTA).
The much touted TPP will have little impact on Australia as it already has FTAs with all the major countries in the TPP. FTAs between China, Japan and South Korea the 3 largest Asian economies is projected by 2035 to only increase jobs by 5,400 with an increase in exports of 0.5% but increase imports by 2.5%.
Yes I know this is Australia but the Aus/USA FTA serves as an example of a smaller economy Versus a larger economy and who gets the most benefit.
Both the EU and UK are mature economies and growth within these two economies will be relatively limited as compared to the oportunities in the emerging Asian markets which the EU is already targeting and the UK will follow, once out of the EU.
I am interested in other members views who either agree or disagree hopefully based on some commonsense arguments, other than just the abusive, economically illterate comments that the poisonous little chihuhua in Pattaya is capable of.
The link shows pros and cons of Australian FTAs as an example only.

http://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/...ng%20Paper.pdf