1. #5001
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Among much else, in the event of a no deal there are some 40,000 items that would need to be negotiated individually, across every department, and with all remaining EU members having to agree on each. No way could the current hopeless gov cope, I don't believe it could be done by the most devoted gov, and even if it could be there is no incentive for the EU to cooperate.

    Any public no-deal contingencies being worked on by Frau, um, the EU, would be backed by a very private malicious intent toward varying degrees of disruption, delay, inconvenience and economic losses. They, she, will be pressing the buttons.

    Meanwhile, the EU are as worried at the prospect of a no-deal as we should be, they never viewed this as a remote possibility, they don't want it, and they would hate it, but unless they realise it is their intransigence that has brought it to the brink, and backtrack using the 'clarification' camouflage to make concessions, then it could become a reality.

    My thoughts, fire away.

  2. #5002
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    even if it could be there is no incentive for the EU to cooperate.


    Meanwhile, the EU are as worried at the prospect of a no-deal as we should be


    Surely the worry in your second statement is the EU incentive in your first statement.

  3. #5003
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    Cool

    ^ The apparent intransigence was a moan when the UK joined. It is simply a united front that keeps a common goal and something the UK will lose out on when it tries to find FTAs on its own.

    Merkel is not the voice of the EU so please stop trying to make it some UK Vs German thing. Leave that sort of trash to the gutter press.

  4. #5004
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    ^ The apparent intransigence was a moan when the UK joined. It is simply a united front that keeps a common goal and something the UK will lose out on when it tries to find FTAs on its own.

    Merkel is not the voice of the EU so please stop trying to make it some UK Vs German thing. Leave that sort of trash to the gutter press.
    Sadly the ECB is unable to agree to any major expenditure without the agreement of Germany. Ergo, Germany, Merkel is actually more than the voice the EU. She has already told the ECB, no more handouts, the German electorate has had enough.
    Having said that, I wonder if she demurred on the pay rises for the commission.

  5. #5005
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neverna View Post


    Surely the worry in your second statement is the EU incentive in your first statement.
    Yes and no, Nev, because you're drawing on logic and common sense. Short of a thesis, imo it's more complex than simply doing what's best for the common 'economic' good. Negotiations are like poker, and here they're holding a strong hand with strong cards showing against a weak opposition. And while we tend to put a brave face on it for others, those holding the strong cards have serious problems at home.

    So look at the EU and each of its members as separate entities; the gods want what they consider best for the Union, with its members in second place. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that, and the members want what's best for them, albeit with platitudes for the Union. But they're not sitting pretty; they are also exposed to the risk of a no-deal scenario because of the close commercial links they have shared with the UK for decades, and a no-deal would have significant repercussions across the board.

    Pick an impact assessment at random, and it will show a no-deal severely hurting the UK, most members, and the EU, with mild tremors elsewhere as well. From a GDP perspective, fex, Ireland is quite exposed, not as much as the UK but it's close. Others like the expected, France, Netherlands, Germany, are in the supply chain mostly to the UK but also from. An IMF study (no link, few weeks old) found no-deal/WTO terms would reduce EU growth by 1.5%; less than 3-4% for the UK, though Ireland would suffer a similar 3-4% drop due to the closer commercial ties. This should be enough for Ireland to push the EU to change the terms of the current deal, though in our mad world anything can happen and probably will.

    It should be no consolation to the members that UK is suffering as much or more than them, but it may well be to the EU. And who can say whether they trust the gods to do what's best for their own countries? I suspect not all of them do, while others insist 27 hearts and souls are with the bodies.

    So once we overcome logic and common sense in favour of ideology, the EU top brass have concerns other than pure numbers, which include doing as they see fit to ensure the UK fails if/when it breaks free to trade independently as competitors. Not only is the concept of nation-state independence abhorrent to EU objectives, but it risks having others glance at the exit; one clue here if it's not already clear, is that they dumped of hundreds of billions into the Aegean to prevent a worthless and unproductive member from keeling over, and as Greece and others turn up to the OIB no doubt hundreds more billions will be printed to keep them in while conveniently bailing out Deutsch Bank.
    Last edited by jabir; 20-12-2018 at 12:13 PM. Reason: all=most

  6. #5006
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    ^ The apparent intransigence was a moan when the UK joined. It is simply a united front that keeps a common goal and something the UK will lose out on when it tries to find FTAs on its own.

    Merkel is not the voice of the EU so please stop trying to make it some UK Vs German thing. Leave that sort of trash to the gutter press.
    200 pages of thread, and not one post to my knowledge has suggested it is a UK-German issue. Tsk tsk, another strawman!

    Must hand it to your clever use of words; while Merkel is indeed not the up front voice of the EU, are you implying she does not push the buttons, or that if the EU return to the table it will not be at her behest?

  7. #5007
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    From yesterday’s Telegraph:

    Contracts worth £45 trillion which had their legal status thrown into doubt by Brexit have dodged a cliff edge, thanks to last minute legal provisions from the EU Commission. The move follows months of lobbying by UK regulators with Brussels.
    The Bank of England has repeatedly warned that disrupting the derivatives market was one of the most significant threats to financial stability generated by Brexit. While the UK government moved to ensure contracts between UK and EU counterparties would still have legal clout in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, Brussels had not done likewise until now.
    The deadline, as clearing houses must give three months’ notice if a contract will be closed or transferred, was noted as mid-December by UK regulators. The move from Brussels has therefore come just before this process would have been triggered.
    The confirmation came as part of the wider note on 'no deal' planning published by the Commission on Wednesday. This included a temporary equivalence regime - a form of market access granted by the EU to third countries - for 12 months for derivatives contracts specifically. The Commission also made vital separate legal provisions for so-called over-the-counter derivatives which are agreed without a clearing house acting as middle man.
    The City of London is an international hub for derivatives activities, and clearing houses. These contracts are a key method used by firms to hedge risks.


    The step will only grant the City a temporary reprieve on the issue however, within nine months, the same three month cliff edge could emerge if a Brexit deal and or transition period with the EU is not secured.

    More at:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ge-final-hour/


  8. #5008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    lol. I am not the one who has changed direction here. If you are now agreeing with the consistency of my statements, it would seem that you are the one having an epiphany, not me.
    You stupid Eutopian.
    you didn't change direction, here? how stupid do you think we are? or are you just demented and forgot what you said just 2 pages behind?

    maybe you can lie to yourself, but you have been against Ref2 for pages after pages despite explanation by some here, including me, it was the only clean political exit

    god, what a dishonest loon you make
    Last edited by Dragonfly; 20-12-2018 at 12:33 PM.

  9. #5009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    "Brexit: 'Horrified' firms warn time is running out"

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46610792
    and they should be, of course politicians never did a real honest work in their life so they wouldn't know what it means to run a business

  10. #5010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neverna View Post
    Corbyn pwned by May.

    Pantomime season. How apt.

    she did, got to give it to her, she is fighting back

    she must be on a cocktail of yaba and coke to take all those hits and still stands on her 2 feet

    Corbyn is hopeless, what a complete useless party leader

  11. #5011
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Not just the party leader, it's the party that's fcuked. With any gumption at all they would have capitalised on the political and national division to replace him, thereby giving voters an electable option to the current goon crew.

  12. #5012
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    And in the shuffle they could also off Diane the Abacus; if not for being black and a woman she'd be in a padded jacket.

  13. #5013
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    They need a new Tony Blair,

  14. #5014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    you didn't change direction, here? how stupid do you think we are? or are you just demented and forgot what you said just 2 pages behind?

    maybe you can lie to yourself, but you have been against Ref2 for pages after pages despite explanation by some here, including me, it was the only clean political exit

    god, what a dishonest loon you make
    correct, I did not change direction. You are hard of reading aren’t you?
    I simply pointed out that a “pointless” second referendum might surprise everyone with a confirmed leave result now that voters are better informed on the evils of Eutopia.

    Silly speed reader needs to pay more attention. ADHD is a recognized disorder and can be treated, although in your case it’s obviously terminal.


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    The Corbyn problem runs much deeper. He is supposed to represent HMG official opposition. This means applying effective checks and balances against everything that the government do.
    That is his, and his party’s greatest failing.

    The fact that he has surrounded himself with far left sycophants is mere chicken feed, compared to his appalling record of holding the government to account. Mumbling that the PM is a stupid woman might well be the truth, but he’s done nothing to prove it. The party opposite represents a bigger risk to May’s leadership than he does.

  16. #5016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    correct, I did not change direction. You are hard of reading aren’t you?
    I simply pointed out that a “pointless” second referendum might surprise everyone with a confirmed leave result now that voters are better informed on the evils of Eutopia.

    Silly speed reader needs to pay more attention. ADHD is a recognized disorder and can be treated, although in your case it’s obviously terminal.



    you should be in Westminster with Maybot, you double speak Torry loon

  17. #5017
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post


    you should be in Westminster with Maybot, you double speak Torry loon
    Rather than withdraw gracelessy, you decide its better to go on the attack ..... and make shit up.

    What an amusing little weirdo you are.

  18. #5018
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    The Corbyn problem runs much deeper. He is supposed to represent HMG official opposition. This means applying effective checks and balances against everything that the government do.
    That is his, and his party’s greatest failing.

    The fact that he has surrounded himself with far left sycophants is mere chicken feed, compared to his appalling record of holding the government to account. Mumbling that the PM is a stupid woman might well be the truth, but he’s done nothing to prove it. The party opposite represents a bigger risk to May’s leadership than he does.
    Can't be repeated often enough though for the benefit of some here it should be pinned; the only way to have a strong gov is to have it face a strong opposition. No need for a degree, this is quite basic, QED does anyone believe May and her clowns could have gotten away with such an abysmal performance facing a strong team?

  19. #5019
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    Rather than withdraw gracelessy, you decide its better to go on the attack ..... and make shit up.

    What an amusing little weirdo you are.
    He's Belgian, needs identity, anything will do, forgive him.

  20. #5020
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Merkel is not the voice of the EU
    You think not?

    Germany as the economic powerhouse of the EU gets to say what goes.

    https://www.neweurope.eu/article/fra...t-digital-tax/

    France is hanging on Germany's coat tails because they know the consequences of what will happen if they don't. French agreement gives Germany's commands at least the semblance of unity. Understandbly the other, lesser important EU members, are not quite so pleased to be ignored.

  21. #5021
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    "Brexit: 'Horrified' firms warn time is running out"

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46610792
    Yet more scarey propaganda disguised as 'news' from the BBC.

    Would the BBC care to elaborate on precisely what post Brexit arrangements the businesses they spoke to were expecting? Any responsible business is constantly considering and updating their contingency plans, including what they may consider to be 'worst case' scenarios.

  22. #5022
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Can't be repeated often enough though for the benefit of some here it should be pinned; the only way to have a strong gov is to have it face a strong opposition. No need for a degree, this is quite basic, QED does anyone believe May and her clowns could have gotten away with such an abysmal performance facing a strong team?
    The only way to have a strong government is to have a large majority in the House. The Maybot barely has this comfort in her own Cabinet, let alone the House.

  23. #5023
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Can't be repeated often enough though for the benefit of some here it should be pinned; the only way to have a strong gov is to have it face a strong opposition. No need for a degree, this is quite basic, QED does anyone believe May and her clowns could have gotten away with such an abysmal performance facing a strong team?
    There you go again, blaming Corbyn for the Brexit shambles.

    Corbyn caused the Tories to create the Brexit shambles?

    Are you huffing glue before posting?

    If you want to blame someone for the Tory shitshow then blame those that voted them into power, that will be the English working class, low education, low intelligence, looking for someone to blame, spoon fed their opinion by the Daily Express, racist, farage cock sucking, Brexiteers..just like you, who would rather vote Tory/UKIP than back Labour(who are far from perfect but a million miles closer to representing the lower classes than UKIP/Tories will ever be) ...you and your kind allowed your buttons to get pushed and comprehensively hoodwinked by the UKIP/Tories into creating this Brexit shambles ....now you've created this mess, you're once again looking for a "leftie" to blame, because you're not man enough to take responsibility for your own stupidity.

    The only way to have a stronger government is to have a stronger government.

  24. #5024
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    Barnier is the cause of the Brexit stalemate. https://www.pressreader.com/uk/daily...81479276555072

  25. #5025
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warwick View Post
    Yet more scarey propaganda disguised as 'news' from the BBC.

    Would the BBC care to elaborate on precisely what post Brexit arrangements the businesses they spoke to were expecting? Any responsible business is constantly considering and updating their contingency plans, including what they may consider to be 'worst case' scenarios.
    Wouldn't surprise me if it turns out the EU pays the BBC and other left wing outfits to promote their lines, direct or indirect. It's a common enough practice under the guise of 'lobbying', PR, image building, consultant fees, stipends, an annexe or community centre or whatever, but there's a lot of money slushing around with many media, academics and politicians prepared to dance to any tune.

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