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Thread: The near future

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    The near future

    Any thoughts?


    The future. Some of this sounds far-fetched but could happen sooner than we think!
    In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they were bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming.
    Did you think in 1998, that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
    So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
    Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
    Welcome to the Exponential Age.
    Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
    “Uber” (You’ve heard this name just about every day, now, for the past two years) is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
    Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
    Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
    This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
    In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs, because of IBM Watson. You can get legal advice, (so far for more or less basic law) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, you may as well stop immediately.
    There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
    Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses.
    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.

    In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
    Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
    Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
    You don't want to own a car anymore.
    You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
    You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.
    Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

    It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
    We can transform former parking space into parks.
    1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
    We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year. Most car companies might become bankrupt.
    Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
    A lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.
    Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.
    Their car insurance business model will disappear.
    Real estate will change.
    Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.
    Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020.
    Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact.
    Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
    The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.

    Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
    Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
    There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the
    "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
    3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
    All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.
    Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
    The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
    At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
    In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building.
    By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
    Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
    And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.

    There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
    Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
    Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields.
    Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
    There are several start-ups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
    There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are.
    Until 2020, there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
    Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
    Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more than 100.
    Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.
    Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.
    We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this Summer, which means there is an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.......
    Any questions.... consult your Smartphone

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    Pretty thought provoking, had to argue with most of it.

    Some of the forecasts may take a little longer but on balance a good read.

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    Who'd have thought you'd be able to copy other people's writings almost instantaneously and attempt to pass them off to others as your own? O brave new world that has such people in't

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    Quote Originally Posted by DrB0b View Post
    Who'd have thought you'd be able to copy other people's writings almost instantaneously and attempt to pass them off to others as your own? O brave new world that has such people in't

    Never crossed my mind anyone would think this was written by me, just passing it on as food for thought. Always has to be an ass in the crowd.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DrB0b View Post
    Who'd have thought you'd be able to copy other people's writings almost instantaneously and attempt to pass them off to others as your own? O brave new world that has such people in't
    This is the part he left out most likely because this was some forwarded email he got. But the piece is very real;

    An Authors look into the future



    Submitted by JAD on May 20, 2016
    A friend sent this interesting article to me and I thought I would pass it along...
    The German author offers a peek into the future . . .
    Into the future
    By Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin, Germany


    I just went to the Singularity University summit. Here are the key points I gathered.


    Then the Op follows after that. Here is the original authers post;


    https://www.facebook.com/udo.gollub/...07978845381135


    https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forum...rs-look-future

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    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
    I'd say that's utter bollocks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
    I'd say that's utter bollocks.
    It hasn't automatically recognized mine any time I've been showing them. Though adverts for bowling balls have popped up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
    I'd say that's utter bollocks.
    Its not, this article is from 2014;

    Facebook?s facial recognition software is now as accurate as the human brain, but what now? | ExtremeTech

    Two years to refine and tweek the algorithm.

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    Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
    Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields.
    Lao Khao producers will do well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
    I'd say that's utter bollocks.
    Well it's true, I found this out this way.
    I took a picture in a Pub in Wanganui in New Zealand with a disposable film camera.
    Got them developed on paper. Before Facebook was invented.

    In the Photo where My Friends , one eventually years later is a contact on Facebook.

    Took My I Pad, took a picture of the 2001 paper print, transferred it to Facebook on the I Pad.
    Blow me away.
    Facebook immediately placed the name of My friend onto the picture. I did not initiate this. Her profile was on Facebook as a friend, yet FB identified her face on a previously non digital picture.
    Fkn scary.

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    3D printing is an amazing technology and will change industry. But it is not the solution to end all solutions. It is an additional tool, not replacing present production.

    AI is the wild card. We have no way of knowing what it will throw at us. No consolation in that old saying that AI is no match for natural stupidity.
    "don't attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    AI is the wild card.
    You are correct it is a new frontier and most have no idea what is coming. It is here now but the things that it will bring in just months not say years will redefine reality as we know it.

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    There's many futurists around making intelligent predictions based on what science is currently doing and what it's expected to do.

    And of course, Armageddon or the Apocalypse will prove all those predictions to be false.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maanaam
    There's many futurists around making intelligent predictions based on what science is currently doing and what it's expected to do.
    Clearly you must be old. The term "futurist" is dated. Technology rolls faster and faster as it progresses. There is no current end to the acceleration of this. The article speaks about a convention that this man attended here;

    https://exponential.singularityu.org/summit/

    It is this kind of brain trust that created many great things in the tech industry and these are the people who will drive the world in this post industrial existence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    3D printing is an amazing technology and will change industry. But it is not the solution to end all solutions. It is an additional tool, not replacing present production.

    AI is the wild card. We have no way of knowing what it will throw at us. No consolation in that old saying that AI is no match for natural stupidity.
    3D printing is already getting small following in some hobbies but not as a print in your home model. Why? Well firstly there are still few printers and secondly there is no money in it for anyone if you print at home.
    So one has to buy from Shapeways even if one has access to a 3D printer. Because the designer/author will not release the software for free and if he does the user can then print out components and sell on ebay.

    Driverless cars? Hmmm. the first digital camera was in 1975. I didn't buy one until about 1988. so even if driver-less cars become available in 2018, which I don't believe. It will take a minimum of 13 years using my example before i buy one, if ever. And my example is for a product that needs no infrastructure changes.

    Q. On the Chonburi motorway or any other multi-lane hwy in Thailand, will a driver-less or automated car move into the centre lane if a car approaches at a higher speed from behind or will it sit there dawdling just like the cars with drivers of today?

    Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
    My son has a license but no car already and is a member of a car pooling organization where the cars are parked around the city. A member just walks to the car and drives away. Returning it filled with gas to a nearby location ready for the next person.

    In the future, as has happened before, most paradigm shifts will be things we haven't foreseen yet!
    Better to think inside the pub, than outside the box?
    I apologize if any offence was caused. unless it was intended.
    You people, you think I know feck nothing; I tell you: I know feck all
    Those who cannot change their mind, cannot change anything.

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    3D printing of quality products needs expensive metal powder. It would be competetive for small production runs, for spare parts. Many parts however need well defined mechanical properties, which needs different materials for different applications. Printing plastic parts may be easier.

    But who would have thought a short while ago that the most stressed parts of a large rocket engine could be 3D printed?

    Self driving cars are a mid term reality. Tesla are running their autopilot beta software. Elon Musk has estimated they will need 10 billion km with that software active on the streets to reach a level of reliability that will satisfy regulators. He thinks it needs to be 10 times more reliable than a human driver. But it is already in a permanent learning and upgrading process. Every incident the software is involved in gets fed back and is used to improve the software, a monumental task. Elon Musk thinks they will be there in 5 years but he is known to be too optimistic on timelines. Though in the end he delivers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
    I'd say that's utter bollocks.
    Its not, this article is from 2014;

    Facebook?s facial recognition software is now as accurate as the human brain, but what now? | ExtremeTech

    Two years to refine and tweek the algorithm.
    It is - this article is from 2015.

    Humans still outdo computers in facial recognition tests | Daily Mail Online

    However, there is still a long way to go before police could use the system to catch criminals, for example, because the system has an accuracy rate of 80 per cent when it has multiple visible images of a person to draw on.

    When only one visible image was available, the accuracy dropped to 55 per cent.

  18. #18
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    ^ I thought you worked in the industry? What did you do for a living again?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman123 View Post
    Pretty thought provoking, had to argue with most of it.
    I, too, could question nearly all.......as it's largely speculative, hearsay, and guess work.

    Trying to attach possible hypothesis towards activities/events/things that haven't occurred or might not even take place.

    Future, indeed.
    We can't even connect with present day, less take a stab at what might be.


    We [as a species] do fancy ourselves, don't we?

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    ^ I thought you worked in the industry? What did you do for a living again?
    Snubby, you're fucking wrong.

    Argue the evidence and leave out the bullshit.

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    This is easily the most boring and dreadful thread that I have ever seen on TeakDoor.

    Is there anywhere lower in status that the "Doghouse" so it may be placed there, please ?

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by can123 View Post
    This is easily the most boring and dreadful thread that I have ever seen on TeakDoor.

    Is there anywhere lower in status that the "Doghouse" so it may be placed there, please ?
    The Shitehouse?

    Actually the thread on robot workers went on long enough.

    Obviously some people are terrified of technology that they don't understand.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by thaimeme
    Trying to attach possible hypothesis towards activities/events/things that haven't occurred or might not even take place.
    The perfect example that most people have no idea what is coming. Yes, nobody knows exactly. But that a groundswell of change is coming our way becomes more and more obvious for those who care to look for the signs.

    And that article quotead in the OP does barely even touch on the probably most important thing coming. That's genetics, we cannot see yet what shape the changes take in that regard but major changes become inevitable. Possible longevity is just one.

    Though AI may be even more fundamental. Once AI has reached human level there is no way of telling the direction where it will be going. But it will go fast.

  24. #24
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    And then SkyNet becomes self aware and we're all fucked.

    I saw it on the telly.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    And then SkyNet becomes self aware and we're all fucked.

    I saw it on the telly.

    A real risk, yes. BTW did you know that the server room of SpaceX HQ in Hawthorne is labeled Skynet? And Elon Musk is funding a major AI research operation? He sees AI as a potentially real threat if we do it wrong and prefers to advance his own research in it instead of sticking his head in the sand.

    https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/

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