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Mr Earl

^Not terribly informative. Of course condos would have been cheap after the crash of 97.
The dynamics of todays market seem different.
Before the coup the baht was trading in the low 40's. Today it's in the low 30's. That's a 25% increase in value. You would think we would see a 25% decrease in condo prices. We haven't seen that yet. People are sitting tight.
Prices here in Patong continue to rise as well. Though the supply demand situation here is different than Pattaya.

I think everyone is nervously waiting to see what the baht does when a proper government is elected again.
I'd like to see the baht take a bit of a hit in the coming months.
That will effect an increase in the sales of condos I think.
But the thai economy in general seems quite strong and these small blips in the resort/condo areas aren't significant in the big picture.
The big picture question is how the 25% increase in the value baht will affect the economy.
I imagine if the powers at be here were smart they'd be paying off their foreign debt as quickly as possible, and let the baht devalue a bit to spur the economy.
I wish I had a crystal ball!...Instead of this tin foil hat!

Butterfly

^ well this morning NOBLE and LH (two property stocks) have reported terrible earnings !!! NOBLE earnings is down 90% !!! yeah, that's right, looks like those condo deals are not too hot these days

Butterfly

DD, nobody can claim to be an expert for price forecasting. But only stupid Thais can claim that land prices can never go down or property prices can never go down. Being uneducated and not understanding the cost of money and inflation, those Thais are excused.

Prices do go down eventually. Thailand is a "new" country in terms of modern economy so not many precedents (1997 was the first).

What happened is the market dries, price holds (owners do not want to compromise) but there is no volume. Then someone desperate needs the cash, and this is when you make the bargain, buying it off at 50% or 60% off the high. Sure the owners will keep advertising crazy prices when demand is low, but the deals are not happening, so they can wait 10 years before making the sale. Meanwhile, if they need the cash to pay the bank, they will need to sell, and when that happens, they get killed. Property is a funny market. The discountinuity in the market volume gives it a false sense of security and stability, but in reality it's not, it's a risky investment as the liquidity becomes a major issue in difficult times.

Spin

I dont understand this statement, can you explain what you mean in more detail please?

Mr Earl

At least in relation to the USD I've seen an increase in value of the baht of about 25% over the past year. With such a volatile currency fluctuation I might expect some fallback onto the condo markets which are driven by foreign investment.
From the sounds of things though it seems the booming condo market may be about to bust.

Spin

^ It hard these days on those getting paid in dollars and spending it here. Other currencys have faired better the pound and the Euro maybe 10-12% down on a year ago.
One thing I am convinced about is that condo prices will remain at whatever price the developers want. They dont respond to market forces unless they really have to.
I cant see a condo builder chopping 20% discount off his condo becuase his American dollar customers are a bit skint!
All farangs are rich!!!

Mr Earl

^true enough. But I've heard there are some nervous sellers out there who are taking 50-60% of asking prices.

VT6 for example will probably have numerous good deals as the december completion date nears, when the balloon payment is due.
If the seller is american there is a good chance he might take a licking.
But I've noticed asking prices are up about 900k over the original contract prices.

attaboy

China is flush with cash. Has anyone seen any mainland China money building in Bkk or Pattaya?

Butterfly

Very good points. Likewise, I don't see developers giving huge discount because the USD is going down, they don't give a fuck, and they don't quote in USD, even if it means less demand, at least temporarily.

How long this boom will last ? who fucking knows. But it's still going strong in Pattaya. I think one main reason is that everything else in Europe or in civilized countries is overpriced, so basically you dont't have much choice. Wait until it starts crashing in Europe and the US, and the money will go there instead, and there will be a ton of condos for sale in Pattaya, at bargain price.

Spin

They really should the dollar took another little hit today and even the pound looks run ragged.
Looks like i'm eating street food instead of nice restraunts for a couple of months

Pattaya Condo King

OK - So to review this thread after a week or so.... the feeling is that the condo market may be a little overpriced and SHOULD give a little BUT most people agree that in fact prices will continue to rise!!

Lets wait and see.... place your bets now please!

Spin

t/t rate this morning is 34.49.

That means the to buy a 2.5 million condo today will cost you 72,500 U$D

With the baht at say, 37 to the Dollar the condo will cost you 67,500 U$D

Thats a hell of a big 5000 dollar price difference and I would be delaying any decision until the baht settles back down to what it has been in the past.

The current rate will cost Thailand in the long term, I'm convinced of that.

Mr Earl

^There has already been a dramatic slowdown of capitol coming into the country.
Now I think the exporters are crying because their products aren't price competitive anymore.
There is a hurt going on. At the end of this month some kind of political wrangling is supposed to be decided.

buriramboy

its either the 30th or 31st of May that the courts will give their decision on wether to disband the TRT and Democrat parties.

homehunter

You mention the dollar strengthening but it is more than likely that it will weaken to, as some fear, as low as THB 25/$. If you wait too long your THB 2.5 M condo could end up costing you US$ 100,000. The old Real Estate sayings come to mind:

"When is the best time to buy?..........NOW, is the best time to buy!"

"Buy Land..........They ain't making much more of it these days!!"

Condo prices will continue to rise until we get more building completions. As a large percentage of units were bought for speculation or rental income not as residencies we will see a large adjustment when they try to rent or on-sell the units all at roughly the same time!

However, the tourism figures are up more than 10% year on year and this figure eventually is reflected in the expat property buyers market. Russian buyers are slowly entering the market and show a totally new demographic as they tend to be younger, more family orientated and prepared to look outside the central condo market areas towards Wongamat or Jomtien and even further afield.

drgreg9899

To revive a thread it is interesting to see the projections from last year. The dollar did touch 29 but it now looks like it will reach 36 by Nov. Yea!!!

I am currently looking for a condo in Jomtien Beach. Would this be a good time to buy and besides the google search results does anyone know any decent developments to look at. I will be back in Pattaya in November.

Thanks to all.
gym

Muadib

I too have been contemplating a condo in Jomtien, but with the volatility of the Thai government & economy I think I'll wait awhile... Besides, I'm starting to think that renting is preferable in the short term as you can pickup and move at a moments notice...

Just look at the US housing market to get an idea of what happens when the market is over-valued and mortgage companies write bad paper... Collapse...

Typical logic does not apply in Thailand though... When business is bad, you raise prices... Condo prices will stay the same or actually go up... Go figure...

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