Thread: Ahmadinejawhackjob Wants To Share Nukes With Middle East

The Fact that the West doesn't like it seems almost a moot point now- do they like anyone in the ME except Israel being anything but reliant on Western technology anyway? China does not mind, and Russia is prepared to build a reactor for them.

Now it has been established that Iran was telling the truth, the same old economically viable reasons for them getting nuclear energy that applied all along come to the fore. I guess Israel remains the joker in the pack, but with a resumption in negotiations towards Palestinian statehood underway, I can't see any upside in them taking rash military action.

Given that it is an abysmal lack of internal refining capacity that is propelling Iran down this route, it is noteworthy that no western power has even mentioned the possibility of bribing Iran out of going nuclear by installing oil refining capacity for them. Which tends to support my contention that western foreign policy towards the ME is largely to keep them pumping oil, but technologically dependent.

It is also telling that the only ME nations the West is baying for a western style democracy are regimes they are at loggerheads with. We seem quite comfortable with the autocratic but compliant regimes in Saudi and the UAE.

Iran Assessment Creates an Israeli Headache

By TIM MCGIRK/JERUSALEM Fri Dec 7, 1:50 AM ET

Israeli officials were shocked and disappointed by the U.S. intelligence agencies' report downgrading the risk of Iran building nuclear weapons. That's because not only do some of the key conclusions of the latest National Intelligence Estimate undercut some of Israel's own assessments, they also seem to dim the likelihood of the U.S. taking military action against Iran's nuclear facilities - a step the Israelis had been quietly urging the White House should sanctions fail to stop Iran's uranium enrichment program. With the new U.S. assessment, one Israeli cabinet official told TIME, "It looks like this ends the military option against Iran for now. Israel won't attack alone. Iran's facilities are too many and spread too far apart."

Iran Assessment Creates an Israeli Headache - Yahoo! News

Originally Posted by sabang

...
Now it has been established that Iran was telling the truth, the same old economically viable reasons for them getting nuclear energy that applied all along come to the fore. ...

Not so fast! Intelligence says they probably had a weapons program and probably stopped it in 2003.
This is not proof that they do not have further nuclear ambitions. Iran still cannot be trusted.

Presently they are working on Uranium enrichment, for civil purposes, but can also be adapted for creating weapons grade uranium - any future weapons program would benefit from this, they are still moving closer to nuclear capability.
Russia has a contract for a life-time supply of the uranium required for the power-station. What is the urgency and scale of Iran's enrichment program really about, that they would risk sanctions and further consequences, one wonders?

[quote=stroller;480567]

Originally Posted by sabang

...
Iran still cannot be trusted.

Hi stroller- nice to have you back.
I think, since the overthrow of the Shah at least, that quote sums up the attitude of the west and most of it's people. So whatever proof or evidence to the contrary the same attitude will prevail, at least for some time yet.

Iran was telling the truth- they ceased their nuclear weapons program in 2003. But that will not alter the attitude of the man on the street. Nothing will- he has had a lifetime of Iran being depicted as a bunch of Islamic loonies. Americans in particular remember the hostage crisis. Ask the average person to depict an Iranian, he will probably sketch the Ayatollah.

What did change recently is the emphasis. Right wing claims that Iran was actively and secretly developing nukes- as opposed to nuclear energy- have been defused. Along with this, the UN's ardour to pursue heavy sanctions against Iran has weakened, and Russian reluctance to actively and openly support the project has now flown out the window. That is why Cheney and his ilk wanted this information withheld. Iran will develop nuclear energy, I am fairly confident now.

The only tangible controversy that remains is their internal enrichment of uranium. This is required for nuclear power, but as you correctly point out also brings them closer to being able to build their own nukes some years down the track. Iran however can credibly point out that if they remain dependent on foreign enriched uranium for their power generation, they remain hostage to foreigners as that nuclear fuel can be cut off at any time.

Originally Posted by sabang

Originally Posted by stroller

...
Iran still cannot be trusted.

Hi stroller- nice to have you back.
I think, since the overthrow of the Shah at least, that quote sums up the attitude of the west and most of it's people. So whatever proof or evidence to the contrary the same attitude will prevail, at least for some time yet.

Iran was telling the truth- they ceased their nuclear weapons program in 2003. But that will not alter the attitude of the man on the street. Nothing will- he has had a lifetime of Iran being depicted as a bunch of Islamic loonies. Americans in particular remember the hostage crisis. Ask the average person to depict an Iranian, he will probably sketch the Ayatollah.

Nice try, but no cigar...
Associating my statement with a general attitude of "the West" or "the man in the street" doesn't refute it, specially since my arguments were much more specific and do not rely on general sentiments towards Iran.
First lets quickly resume why the focus is on Iran: not only because of the expressed 'animosities' (which have been discussed to some extent already), but they are at a crucial stage of development of nuclear technology. Concern about this is not the exclusive domain of "right-wingers", but shared across the political spectrum on the world stage.

As said already, the NIE does not prove anything, it deals in probabilities - it does not show that Iran was or is "telling the truth".
If they really did have a program and stopped it, the logic conclusion is that Iran did indeed lie about the nature of its nuclear ambitions before, which included an actual weapons program, contrary to what what claimed.

The report indicates that the program was halted due to 'international pressure' - US marines humping about in neighbouring countries might have had something to do with it, as well as diplomatic efforts by the UN and EU.

As for any present weapons programs, there is a notable absence of hard evidence for any such enterprise, nor can the non-existence be conclusively confirmed - Iran does not co-operate fully with ongoing inspections.

What did change recently is the emphasis. Right wing claims that Iran was actively and secretly developing nukes- as opposed to nuclear energy- have been defused. Along with this, the UN's ardour to pursue heavy sanctions against Iran has weakened, and Russian reluctance to actively and openly support the project has now flown out the window. That is why Cheney and his ilk wanted this information withheld. Iran will develop nuclear energy, I am fairly confident now.

Yes, Bush/Cheney were found with their pants down, specially important since the lies show striking parallels to the warm-up to the Iraq invasion.

Which leaves us with the enrichment program for now:

The only tangible controversy that remains is their internal enrichment of uranium. This is required for nuclear power, but as you correctly point out also brings them closer to being able to build their own nukes some years down the track. Iran however can credibly point out that if they remain dependent on foreign enriched uranium for their power generation, they remain hostage to foreigners as that nuclear fuel can be cut off at any time.

"If they remain dependent" - that's dodging the size and time-scale of the program.
The "Bush-ehr" (someone had a sense of humour in coming up with this name) is still at the stage of being built.

Given Iran lied about its nuclear ambitions before, which explanations are there for insisting to pursue such a large scale project at this stage, inspite of international pressure? It's not that the program is essential for anything planned in the foreseeable future, but it is a necessary stepping stone for nuclear weapons.

Why are they not fully co-operating with inspections?

I do not have the answers, what I am saying is that there is more than enough ground to continue to scrutinise and be distrustful.

National pride, the Iranian tendency to go for grandes schemes etc. do not sufficiently dispell the suspicion of continued nuclear ambitions.

Whether anyone has the right to interfere with any such ambitions(which I think we have), or how come Israel with its 'secret' nuclear arsenal is not subjected to even more pressure, are different questions.