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lannarebirth · 22-07-2008, 10:39 PM

Even a soothsayer saw it coming:

.: M A H E N D R A P R O P H E C Y :.

Barchart.com - Charts - $CRB CRB INDEX INDEX=

A good call is a good call, regardless of the source.

Spin · 22-07-2008, 11:03 PM

^ On the 3rd july the rsi on the crb chart hit 71.Overbought. A four year old could have made that call. "Mahendra Sharma" knows no more than the average chartster or whatever you want to call them.

lannarebirth · 22-07-2008, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

^ On the 3rd july the rsi on the crb chart hit 71.Overbought. A four year old could have made that call. "Mahendra Sharma" knows no more than the average chartster or whatever you want to call them.

Uh huh...

$CRB - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Don't know if chart will show up as created, without subscription. Anyhow, just funnin' about the Mighty Mahendra.

Spin · 22-07-2008, 11:34 PM

^ I notice the last correction in march fell about 9.5% from top. This correction is right at 9.5% today so i'll be interested to see what happends over the next few days...

lannarebirth · 23-07-2008, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

^ I notice the last correction in march fell about 9.5% from top. This correction is right at 9.5% today so i'll be interested to see what happends over the next few days...

There's my guess:

$CRB - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

But truthfully, I have no idea whatsoever.

mrsquirrel · 23-07-2008, 04:29 AM

Quote:

Oil Falls to 6-Week Low as Storm May Miss Fields, Dollar Rises
By Mark Shenk
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $3 a barrel, dropping to a six-week low, on forecasts a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will miss oil installations and the dollar rebounded against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities.
Oil declined below $126 a barrel, down more than $21 from a record $147.27 reached on July 11, as Tropical Storm Dolly moved toward the Texas border with Mexico. The dollar rose on signs that U.S. interest rates may increase. Senate Democrats today cleared the first hurdle for legislation that aims to curb speculation in energy markets.
``There are dual causes to today's move lower,'' said Brad Samples, commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. ``There's a strong move by the dollar, which always puts pressure on energy prices. We aren't worried about Dolly anymore, also putting pressure on prices.''
Crude oil for August delivery fell $3.09, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $127.95 a barrel at 2:58 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement price since June 5. Futures are up 69 percent from a year ago. The August contract expired today. The more-active September contract declined $3.40, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $128.42 a barrel.
The number of outstanding oil futures in New York dropped to the lowest in 17 months as oil companies, refiners and institutional investors exited the market. Open interest fell 2.6 percent yesterday to 1.23 million contracts on the Nymex, according to data from the exchange.
Gasoline for August delivery fell 7.01 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $3.147 a gallon in New York, the lowest close since May 8. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11.
Lower Pump Prices
Pump prices are following changes in futures. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.4 cents to $4.055 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Pump prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.
U.S. gasoline demand fell 3.3 percent last week from a year ago, the 13th consecutive weekly decline, as Americans react to record pump prices by driving less, a MasterCard Inc. report today showed.
Dolly strengthened over the Gulf of Mexico, and may become a hurricane before making landfall, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said today. Offshore fields in the Gulf are responsible for about 25 percent of U.S. oil production.
The storm's maximum sustained winds strengthened to almost 70 miles (110 kilometers) per hour, the agency said in an advisory on its Web site at 1 p.m. central time. Dolly was 195 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and moving west at 10 mph, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast.
Oil producers shut about 4.7 percent of production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as they evacuated personnel from 49 platforms and six rigs in preparation for the storm, the government's Minerals Management Service said today.
Katrina and Rita
U.S. crude oil and fuel production plunged and prices rose to records when hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut refineries and platforms as they struck the Gulf of Mexico coast in August and September 2005. Katrina shut 95 percent of offshore output in the region. Almost 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity was idled because of damage and blackouts caused by the hurricanes.
Brent crude oil for September settlement dropped $3.06, or 2.3 percent, to settle at $129.55 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest since June 5.
The dollar increased 0.9 percent to $1.5775 per euro at 3:40 p.m. in New York, from $1.5922 yesterday. It fell to $1.6038 on July 15, the weakest since the European currency's 1999 debut.
The U.S. currency rose as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson predicted lawmakers will pass a bill this week to shore up confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the Fed should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' to lower inflation.
Speculation Measure
Legislation introduced by Senate Democrats won approval to proceed to debate, in a 94-0 vote today. Democrats said the measure could reduce oil prices as much as 50 percent.
``The fact that they were unanimous is surprising,'' said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``It will make the market more transparent, which is a good first step. There doesn't appear to be anything in the legislation that is so onerous that it would hurt the futures market.''
Legislation requires the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to impose limits on speculative trading in oil and natural gas futures markets. It also requires more reporting in energy markets to prevent market manipulation.
``This has the potential to move some people out of the market,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``That alone may be enough to spur some selling.''
Airlines, truckers and chemical makers have been hurt by the rise in fuel prices and their limited ability to pass on the costs to consumers. United Airlines parent UAL Corp., US Airways Group Inc. and JetBlue Airways Corp. today posted losses for the second quarter.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1[at]bloomberg.net.

Bloomberg.com: Commodities

britmaveric · 23-07-2008, 10:11 AM

NEW YORK - Oil prices tumbled more than $3 a barrel Tuesday as Tropical Storm Dolly grew increasingly unlikely to threaten supply, giving traders one less reason to buy as a strengthening dollar helped keep prices in check.

The sell-off was a throwback to last week's sharp declines, and dragged crude to its lowest level since early June. It was oil's fifth decline in the last sixth sessions.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $3.09 to settle at $127.95 a barrel in its last trading day on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier the contract, which will be replaced by September crude Wednesday, dropped as low as $125.63.

Oil off more than $3; CFTC cites demand for run-up - Yahoo! News

mrsquirrel · 24-07-2008, 04:27 AM

Quote:

Oil Falls Below $125 as U.S. Fuel Supplies Gain, Demand Drops
By Mark Shenk
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell below $125 a barrel for the first time in seven weeks after a U.S. government report showed that fuel stockpiles increased as consumption tumbled to the lowest in more than a year.
Gasoline supplies rose 2.85 million barrels last week, the Energy Department reported. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, climbed 2.42 million barrels. U.S. fuel demand averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, the lowest since January 2007.
``The inventory and demand numbers make it clear that demand is being affected by high prices and the weak economy,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``The 19.9 million barrel demand number is incredibly low and has to have the bulls worried.''
Crude oil for September delivery fell $3.98, or 3.1 percent, to settle at $124.44 a barrel at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since June 4. Futures are up 66 percent from a year ago.
``Technically, we are looking for oil to settle below $121.61 and $120.75 a barrel, which were lows before the start of summer,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``If we do, you can expect the market to break down further.''
Oil fell as low as $121.61 a barrel on June 5 and touched $120.75 on May 15.
Demand has dropped for three straight weeks, the Energy Department report showed. U.S. fuel consumption averaged 20.3 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from a year earlier, the department said.
Refinery Operations
Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of capacity last week, down 2.4 percentage points from the week before, according to the department. It was the lowest utilization rate since the week ended May 9. Refineries were forecast to operate at 89.5 percent of capacity last week, unchanged from the week before, according to the median of analyst estimates in the Bloomberg survey.
Crude-oil inventories dropped 1.56 million barrels to 295.3 million. Stockpiles were forecast to decline 675,000 barrels, according to the survey results.
``Any bullish impact from the crude-oil drop has been offset by rising product inventories in the face of falling refinery utilization rates,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. ``This is another sign that demand is being hammered. You've reached a price level where there's a demand response.''
Analysts were split over whether gasoline inventories rose or fell last week, the survey showed. Distillate supplies were forecast to climb 2.5 million barrels.
Gasoline Prices
Gasoline for August delivery fell 11.26 cents, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $3.0344 a gallon in New York, the lowest close since May 2. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11.
Pump prices are following changes in futures. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.3 cents to $4.042 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Pump prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.
Crude oil has tumbled 16 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11, as a stronger U.S. dollar limited the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation and high prices cut fuel consumption. Price also fell the past two days because a hurricane moved away from oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Interest Rates
Oil and other commodities may drop further and the dollar increase if the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates to curb inflation. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser today said higher mortgage costs and continued declines in house prices pose no bar to raising interest rates.
Policy makers must increase borrowing costs before inflation expectations become ``unhinged,'' Plosser said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 107.90 yen at 2:55 p.m. in New York, from 107.33 yesterday. It reached 107.97, the highest since June 26. The U.S. currency appreciated 0.7 percent to $1.5674 per euro, after rising to $1.5670, the strongest since July 9.
The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index, which tracks 26 raw materials, gained 31 percent in the first half of the year as the U.S. currency retreated 8 percent. The index has fallen 8.8 percent this month as the dollar has stabilized.
Hurricane Dolly
Hurricane Dolly came ashore in southern Texas today, where coastal residents sustained their first direct hit by a hurricane in almost a decade. Dolly packed winds of 100 miles (161 kilometers) per hour as its eye hit South Padre Island, about 35 miles (50 kilometers) northeast of Brownsville, at 1 p.m. local time, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Dolly is the season's first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, home to about a quarter of U.S. oil production. The storm has steered south of most rigs, which are off the East Texas and Louisiana shores.
Brent crude oil for September settlement dropped $4.26, or 3.3 percent, to close at $125.29 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest settlement since June 4.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1[at]bloomberg.net.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Around $125.

britmaveric · 24-07-2008, 11:46 AM

I thought demand outstripped supply if you base things on bkkandrew's thoughts - hmmm perhaps Butterfy is right? Bubble seems to be slowly evaporating.

Butterfly · 24-07-2008, 01:29 PM

^ yeah, probably those Chinese buying less cars

we all know that buying cars determine oil prices

Panda · 25-07-2008, 06:33 PM

I sincerely hope the speculators have lost a lot of money.
Investment is an engine of any free market enterprise system, but it can get a bit out of kilter when speculation unrealistically drives up prices so high that it actually hurts the general economy. These investment bubbles seem a bit like pyramid selling--- last one on gets to take the loss. Last year it was real estate, this year it is oil.

Spin · 26-07-2008, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

we all know that buying cars determine oil prices

Thats open to debate but one undeniable fact is that American are buying cars based on the price of oil right now and that means smaller and more efficient than they have been used to.
evidence linky

attaboy · 27-07-2008, 02:11 AM

Basically the 40 page report says the world economy has grown at a rate of 5% a year for the last 4 (or 5) years without a corresponding increase in oil production. I don't know how this can be with Russia expanding its oil production are other countries slacking off? The report also says concerning specualtion there were actually more short sales of oil then there were long buys. This I don't understand. There is always another person on the other side of the transaction. For every seller there is a buyer and vice versa.

The oil speculator sideshow - Jul. 24, 2008

newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf] Inter-agency report pdf.

Spin · 27-07-2008, 03:13 AM

That link there doesnt work Attaboy becuase there is an "at" symbol in it. The td swear / spam filter does not allow the "at" symbol be displayed so to get to the link you need to copy (dont click)this into your browser:

http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/

then type in an "at" symbol and then copy and paste the rest of the link:

newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf

Butterfly · 27-07-2008, 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

Thats open to debate but one undeniable fact is that American are buying cars based on the price of oil right now and that means smaller and more efficient than they have been used to.

Americans are buying smaller cars after the fact, if oil was cheap again, they would buy the same big cars again, just because they like them

this should be made a criminal offense,

britmaveric · 27-07-2008, 09:31 AM

Not so certain Butterfy - I think Yanks are starting to get the message.

Mind you love sporting around in my SUV even if gas were 10quid a liter.

Milkman · 27-07-2008, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spin

Thats open to debate but one undeniable fact is that American are buying cars based on the price of oil right now and that means smaller and more efficient than they have been used to.

Americans are buying smaller cars after the fact, if oil was cheap again, they would buy the same big cars again, just because they like them

I just listened to Bob Brinker's Money Talk today. A 3 hour show. He went over the numbers for the big 3 autor makers and their leasing of SUVs is hitting thme very hard. Apparently many people leased SUVs over the last couple of years, and as they are turning them back in the dealerships are getting a larger inventory of SUVs that are lower in value, but unsellable. More SUVs to sit, and sit....and sit.

Many Americans that drive a lot of miles (to work) won't take the chance on larger SUVs again, IMO. You get stuck with the gas price, and a SUV/Truck you cannot get rid of.

lannarebirth · 27-07-2008, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by attaboy

Basically the 40 page report says the world economy has grown at a rate of 5% a year for the last 4 (or 5) years without a corresponding increase in oil production. I don't know how this can be with Russia expanding its oil production are other countries slacking off? The report also says concerning specualtion there were actually more short sales of oil then there were long buys. This I don't understand. There is always another person on the other side of the transaction. For every seller there is a buyer and vice versa.

The oil speculator sideshow - Jul. 24, 2008

newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf] Inter-agency report pdf.

I guess everyone needs to find reasons for things based on how they can process information. This supply demand stuff, this big car little car stuff, it's all meaningless, but it helps sell newspapers and allows people to believe they are informed.

The fact is that every month individuals and funds have been buying at the ask oil futures and rolling out futures they already hold. The fact is that's illegal if that causes you to have a too great a position in the market. The fact is many of these funds have ilegal positions. The fact is that the US Congress just passed legislation creating punitive measures for these funds noncompliance. The fact is these funds now here regulatory footsteps and are getting in compliance FAST and there's more unwinding still to do.

Those facts have nothing to do with what the true price of crude ought to be based on supply/demand. That willbe known later after this buyers only market gets regulated. It's possible it will lead to even higher prices, but I very much doubt it.

27-07-2008, 02:11 AM	#233 (permalink)
attaboy Elite Member Last Online: Yesterday 08:26 AM Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 1,894	Basically the 40 page report says the world economy has grown at a rate of 5% a year for the last 4 (or 5) years without a corresponding increase in oil production. I don't know how this can be with Russia expanding its oil production are other countries slacking off? The report also says concerning specualtion there were actually more short sales of oil then there were long buys. This I don't understand. There is always another person on the other side of the transaction. For every seller there is a buyer and vice versa. The oil speculator sideshow - Jul. 24, 2008 newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf] Inter-agency report pdf. __________________ As a kid I always thought my nickname was "attaboy" until I realized they were rooting for the dog: "Attaboy, get 'em! Get 'em!".

22-07-2008, 10:39 PM	#221 (permalink)
lannarebirth Wat Arun Last Online: 20-08-2008 07:34 PM Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Chiang Mai Posts: 37	Even a soothsayer saw it coming: .: M A H E N D R A P R O P H E C Y :. Barchart.com - Charts - $CRB CRB INDEX INDEX= A good call is a good call, regardless of the source.

22-07-2008, 11:03 PM	#222 (permalink)
Spin Scumbag Daytrader Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 7,118	^ On the 3rd july the rsi on the crb chart hit 71.Overbought. A four year old could have made that call. "Mahendra Sharma" knows no more than the average chartster or whatever you want to call them.

22-07-2008, 11:34 PM	#224 (permalink)
Spin Scumbag Daytrader Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 7,118	^ I notice the last correction in march fell about 9.5% from top. This correction is right at 9.5% today so i'll be interested to see what happends over the next few days...

23-07-2008, 10:11 AM	#227 (permalink)
britmaveric Elite Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 2,127	NEW YORK - Oil prices tumbled more than $3 a barrel Tuesday as Tropical Storm Dolly grew increasingly unlikely to threaten supply, giving traders one less reason to buy as a strengthening dollar helped keep prices in check. The sell-off was a throwback to last week's sharp declines, and dragged crude to its lowest level since early June. It was oil's fifth decline in the last sixth sessions. Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $3.09 to settle at $127.95 a barrel in its last trading day on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier the contract, which will be replaced by September crude Wednesday, dropped as low as $125.63. Oil off more than $3; CFTC cites demand for run-up - Yahoo! News

24-07-2008, 11:46 AM	#229 (permalink)
britmaveric Elite Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 2,127	I thought demand outstripped supply if you base things on bkkandrew's thoughts - hmmm perhaps Butterfy is right? Bubble seems to be slowly evaporating.

24-07-2008, 01:29 PM	#230 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 10,049	^ yeah, probably those Chinese buying less cars we all know that buying cars determine oil prices

25-07-2008, 06:33 PM	#231 (permalink)
Panda Elite Member Last Online: Yesterday 03:52 PM Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,356	I sincerely hope the speculators have lost a lot of money. Investment is an engine of any free market enterprise system, but it can get a bit out of kilter when speculation unrealistically drives up prices so high that it actually hurts the general economy. These investment bubbles seem a bit like pyramid selling--- last one on gets to take the loss. Last year it was real estate, this year it is oil.

27-07-2008, 03:13 AM	#234 (permalink)
Spin Scumbag Daytrader Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 7,118	That link there doesnt work Attaboy becuase there is an "at" symbol in it. The td swear / spam filter does not allow the "at" symbol be displayed so to get to the link you need to copy (dont click)this into your browser: http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/ then type in an "at" symbol and then copy and paste the rest of the link: newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf

27-07-2008, 09:31 AM	#236 (permalink)
britmaveric Elite Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 2,127	Not so certain Butterfy - I think Yanks are starting to get the message. Mind you love sporting around in my SUV even if gas were 10quid a liter.