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Issues There is much going on in the world and the opportunity to discuss these issues and how they affect your world is always relevant. Your opinion is important and though we might not solve the problems confronting society, we just might open someones eyes. What is your opinion?

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Old 20-07-2008, 07:03 PM   #121 (permalink)
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^ yeah, you can put me on ignore, you are obviously losing the argument and this is your only exit at this stage
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:06 PM   #122 (permalink)
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^No, your ignore status can wait. Currently everyone can see that you have been provided data which convincing shows you to be wrong, but, given your attitude, I want to hammer your muppetry home so that all will point and stare at you as you make your every move.
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:18 PM   #123 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Butterfly
The lower USD is a symptom of a lose monetary policy, which has nothing to do with oil
Oil is priced in dollars, weak dollar means higher oil price. Are you saying that isnt the case?
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:22 PM   #124 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bkkandrew
Taking the average increase in production to 2004, the 2007 figure respresents a 4.3% shortfall, not 2%. Maths not your strong point I guess.


ok let's assume it's 4%, not 2%, it's still not enough to justify a 200% increase

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Originally Posted by bkkandrew
given massive price elasticity (obvious to most, but of course, not you), this can quite easliy produce price rises of 1000's of percent.
ah, finally showing your ignorance here. First, demand for oil is price elastic in the long term, not in the short term, as it takes time to adjust oil consumption habits. Ok let's skip that argument for a second and get back to the price elasticity of oil demand. If price are elastic, it means that any increase in price, no matter small, will result in the decrease in quantity demanded. Since the Demand curve is sloping downward (remember econ 101), that small increase in price will result in a large decrease in the quantity demanded (definition of Demand price elasticity). As we could see, price wasn't elastic in the short term as consumption was still strong despite the rising oil price. Not now however, consumers have started to adjust their habits, companies reduce their output, demand for oil decrease.

Now this contradicts completely your argument that the massive elasticity was the reason behind the increase in price. This is not logically possible and show your complete ignorance on the subject and how you do not understand basic economic principles. I suggest you google price elastic of demand and see by yourself if you don't believe me. Of course if you were mentioning price elasticity of supply, then your argument would be even more wrong. A massive price elasticity of supply would mean that only demand determines output and price, and since it would be very elastic (it's supply remember, not demand) it would have no effect on price, or only a very marginal effect on price. A very small increase in price, would bring a massive increase in output (definition of price elasticity of supply).

again you are confusing terms and principles, which explain why you are making all those false assumptions and unfounded opinions
Last edited by Butterfly : 20-07-2008 at 07:28 PM.
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:27 PM   #125 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spin
Oil is priced in dollars, weak dollar means higher oil price. Are you saying that isnt the case?
where does it say that ? in your day trader newsletter ? if you are refering to the Hottelling principle, the mechanics behind that correlation are different. Petro USD is one thing, not the whole story behind the decline of the USD. It could contribute to the lower USD only if OPEC was cutting production, but this is not the case today.

The current symmetry you are seeing with those speculative moves is only a temporary situation. Jesus, you have been in the market for 18 months and you already think that you are a 20 year market veteran,
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:30 PM   #126 (permalink)
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^ any chance you can answer the question without boring personal jibes?
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:33 PM   #127 (permalink)
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^ read again
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:34 PM   #128 (permalink)
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^^No chance.

I'll deal with him later. I have a mia noi to attend to.
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:38 PM   #129 (permalink)
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read again
Oh, you mean now you've edited your post right?
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:41 PM   #130 (permalink)
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^ yeah, the answer was obviously too "educated" for you, I had a bit of explaining to do for you to get it
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:44 PM   #131 (permalink)
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^ Oh thanks mighty one, your such a gentleman in your approach. I wish I was you, your great
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Old 20-07-2008, 07:47 PM   #132 (permalink)
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^ no problem, always happy to help

now where is bkka and can he answer his little price elasticity "jewel" ?
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Old 21-07-2008, 03:41 AM   #133 (permalink)
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^Now back from mia noi's flat and then the pub, then the restaurant. Its called a social life.

Now, in respect of your little mind, I will cause you further derision in the morning.
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Old 21-07-2008, 05:38 AM   #134 (permalink)
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I didn't realise this was such an entertaining thread.

Do you really have 20 yrs expertise in economics bkkandrew?
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Old 21-07-2008, 07:49 AM   #135 (permalink)
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Its Monday today.
Anyone want to guess what the price of oil is going to be at close of business today?

Ill take a stab at $130 a barrel as the speculators get scared off.
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Old 21-07-2008, 10:52 AM   #136 (permalink)
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I reckon $131 today. Iran are putting the heebyjeebies up people again.
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Old 21-07-2008, 12:22 PM   #137 (permalink)
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I didn't realise this was such an entertaining thread.
Its entertainment value is certainly assisted by Butterfly's inability to address points made and then throw wobblies at anyone and everyone as a result...
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Do you really have 20 yrs expertise in economics bkkandrew?
20 years, 6 companies as either FD or MD.

Butterfly - 20 years of being a prat.
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Old 21-07-2008, 12:26 PM   #138 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
First, demand for oil is price elastic in the long term, not in the short term, as it takes time to adjust oil consumption habits. Ok let's skip that argument for a second and get back to the price elasticity of oil demand. If price are elastic, it means that any increase in price, no matter small, will result in the decrease in quantity demanded. Since the Demand curve is sloping downward (remember econ 101), that small increase in price will result in a large decrease in the quantity demanded (definition of Demand price elasticity).
Actually, there is no certainty in this (small increase in price leading to large decrease in demand), as it all depends on the slope of the curve. I believe one could argue more convincingly that (in the short term) large increases in the price of oil has little effect on demand. Recent history seem to confirm this.

For most of us, oil (or energy) is a necessity, not a luxury we can easily do without. Just like basic food, most people are willing to pay quite a bit more to ensure they have enough when supply dwindles. When supply is plentiful, we shop around for the best bargain, and prices drop as a result.
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Old 21-07-2008, 12:27 PM   #139 (permalink)
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Iran are putting the heebyjeebies up people again.
Demand level, supply level and now heebyjeebie level all factor into the price of oil. Should make for a rousing debate!
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Old 21-07-2008, 12:57 PM   #140 (permalink)
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Over here in Korea the government is talking about increasing household gas prices from between 30-50% this year starting in august.

They claim infllation is around 6% here.

Milk is going up by 20% this week.
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