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Travelmate · 16-07-2008, 05:09 PM

i thought the world is only capable of supplying 85 million barrels per day. Suggested demand is approx 87 million plus. Thanks to emerging markets such as India & China.

Butterfly · 16-07-2008, 06:06 PM

^ even if those estimates are correct, a 2 million shorfall (less than 3% of overall supply) doesn't justify a jump of 200% in oil price because "demand" is too strong,

it doesn't add up, and if your BS alarm doesn't go off then you are in the group of people that believe that money can grow on trees,

mrsquirrel · 17-07-2008, 04:08 AM

Quote:

Oil Falls More Than $4 on Report of Unexpected Supply Increase
By Mark Shenk
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell more than $4 a barrel in New York after a surprise increase in U.S. inventories and as a slowing U.S. economy sapped demand for energy.
Supplies rose 2.95 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels last week, an Energy Department report showed. Stockpiles were forecast to drop 2.2 million barrels, according a Bloomberg News survey. Fuel demand averaged 20.3 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2 percent from 2007, the department said.
``The inventory numbers are starting to reflect the bad macro-economic news,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``Not only did we get a surprise build in crude-oil stocks, the products were also up nicely.''
Crude oil for August delivery fell $4.14, or 3 percent, to settle at $134.60 a barrel at 3 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dropped 7.3 percent since July 14, the biggest two-day decline since January 2007. Futures are up 81 percent from a year ago.
Oil today fell as low as $132 a barrel, more than 10 percent below the record of $147.27 reached on July 11. A drop of that magnitude is commonly referred to as a correction.
``Between the bearish DOE numbers and the price drop of the last two days it may be time to back up and re-evaluate whether the market is still bullish or now bearish,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``It's still unclear whether the funds will use this drop to buy futures or bail out.''
Gasoline Supplies
Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.47 million barrels to 214.2 million barrels, the report showed. An 800,000 barrel decline was forecast. Inventories of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, gained 3.19 million barrels to 125.7 million, the department said. A 2 million barrel increase was forecast.
Gasoline for August delivery fell 10.54 cents, or 3.1 percent, to settle at $3.2794 a gallon in New York. Futures reached $3.631 a gallon on July 11, an all-time high.
Consumption of gasoline averaged 9.3 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from the same period last year, the Energy Department supply report showed.
``I don't see anything bullish is this report,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``There were higher inventories across the board in the face of weak product demand.''
Imports Climb
Imports rose 13 percent to 10.8 million barrels a day in the week ended July 11, the highest since August, the report showed.
``We will have to see if this is a one-week blip or a sustained gain in supplies and imports,'' Mueller said. ``The strong import number may be a sign that the Saudis are both producing more and pricing it to move so refiners will take additional volumes.''
Saudi Arabia increased oil output by 280,000 barrels a day in June to 9.53 million barrels, the highest since March 2006, according to a Bloomberg News survey. In response to calls from consuming nations, the kingdom said it would produce an extra 300,000 barrels a day in June and another 200,000 barrels a day in July to curb prices.
Crude oil also fell because of the dollar's rise against the euro today, which reduced the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. The U.S. currency increased 0.6 percent to $1.5814 per euro at 3:07 p.m. in New York, from $1.5911 yesterday, when it declined to a record low of $1.6038.
Yesterday's 4.4 percent drop in New York crude oil futures was the largest since March, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that risks to U.S. economic expansion and inflation have risen.
`Enormous Jumps'
``The enormous jumps in oil prices and other commodity prices are, to some extent, due to real factors out of the control of the Federal Reserve,'' Bernanke said before the House Financial Services Committee today. ``The Federal Reserve cannot create another barrel of oil, it's the global supply and demand.''
Prices paid by U.S. consumers jumped 1.1 percent in June after a 0.6 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington.
Plans by a high-ranking American diplomat to take part in nuclear negotiations with Iran have tempered speculation that the U.S. or Israel may attack OPEC's second-biggest oil producer in a dispute over its nuclear plans. Concern about a possible strike helped push oil prices to a record last week.
Undersecretary of State William Burns will participate in the European Union-Iran talks this weekend in Geneva, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said today without giving details. This is a shift in the U.S. position on talks with a government it has shunned since 1980.
Chevron Corp. resumed contracted deliveries of crude oil produced onshore Nigeria, which were stopped following a militant attack on a pipeline last month.
Brent crude oil for August settlement declined $2.56, or 1.9 percent, to settle at $136.19 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices climbed to a record $147.50 on July 11.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1[at]bloomberg.net.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

attaboy · 17-07-2008, 04:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

^ even if those estimates are correct, a 2 million shorfall (less than 3% of overall supply) doesn't justify a jump of 200% in oil price because "demand" is too strong,

it doesn't add up, and if your BS alarm doesn't go off then you are in the group of people that believe that money can grow on trees,

I think OPEC ate too many cheap dollars and finally the price of oil is reflecting the dollars worth.

Boon Mee · 17-07-2008, 07:01 AM

^T Boone Pickens , who is seldom wrong, has analyzed that'll go to $150.00 a barrel before too long.

mrsquirrel · 17-07-2008, 07:13 AM

^ I don't know who to believe.

Should I buy a some ETF in Oil today at this lower price and hope it rises, or will the airlines reduction in flights and the state of the world's economy mean it would be better to buy ETFs that short oil.

Maybe I should buy even amounts in both and hope that I can play it both ways.

britmaveric · 17-07-2008, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

^T Boone Pickens , who is seldom wrong, has analyzed that'll go to $150.00 a barrel before too long.

Doubtful Boon, more like under 100.00.

Butterfly · 17-07-2008, 03:12 PM

^ MrsQ, speculating on oil with your hard earn money is not recommended

try a mutual fund in Energy, it will diversified across many different type of energy, including renewables

Spin · 17-07-2008, 04:49 PM

Yesterdays price fall is attributed to the rise in stockpile levels in the USA. At 10.35am EST the news was released that there was more unused oil in the USA than there was a month ago. Oil dropped 6$ in 4 minutes. Therefore the price that the whole world pays for oil fell on one small piece of data. We have to realise that America is not the whole world and stockpiles in America dont affect demand in Brazil, Russia, India and China in a big way.There is some gossip around on the net that that Con. Rice has carved out some king of secret deal with the Iranians over their nuke program and missile testing. I dont have a link for this as I've only seen it on blogs, but reduced tensions in that region might see prices fall below the current support level of 130 and back towards 105.

britmaveric · 17-07-2008, 07:58 PM

^dropped $10 in two days, this just shows you how much BS is going on in the market. This is all a facade - time kick these OPEC lads in the balls, they are def playing us.

Milkman · 17-07-2008, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britmaveric

^dropped $10 in two days, this just shows you how much BS is going on in the market. This is all a facade - time kick these OPEC lads in the balls, they are def playing us.

How is OPEC playing us?

By not producing more? As I've said before, worldwide demand is increasing, and will increase more next year. How much oil does OPEC have? We're still not allowed to know as the reserves are kept secret. Cheney, and other oil people predicted in the 1990s that oil output would peak and decline, starting in about 2004-5.

Norton · 18-07-2008, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

it doesn't add up, and if your BS alarm doesn't go off then you are in the group of people that believe that money can grow on trees,

BS (blatant speculation) alarm is ringing loud and clear. Any prediction of future oil prices is an exercise in futility as long as speculation runs wild.

britmaveric · 18-07-2008, 10:53 AM

Dropped another $5 a barrel, hmmm heard a few reports say major drop will occur once the Chinese Olympics begins. (interesting to say the least)

bkkandrew · 19-07-2008, 03:57 PM

^If anyone plots the oil price based on the Olympics, they are seriously deluded. What next - are you going to say the the of year oil price will be the Decathlon points total devided by the 100m men's final winning time?

Butterfly · 19-07-2008, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^If anyone plots the oil price based on the Olympics, they are seriously deluded

not as deluded as those who plots future oil prices on "imaginary" demand from China and India

anway, who knows what's next really, speculators are still out there waiting for the next excuse to rush back on oil,

bkkandrew · 19-07-2008, 04:25 PM

^Imaginary demand from India and China? I suppose that imaginary demand is in respect of imaginary fuel to go in their new imaginary cars and trucks...

I suppose Butterfly still thinks quaintly that they all go around on rickshaws and bicycles still.

Butterfly · 19-07-2008, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

I suppose Butterfly still thinks quaintly that they all go around on rickshaws and bicycles still.

have you ever been to China outside the big cities ? China is not Beijing or Shangai,

oh yeah I forgot, every Indian and Chinese has a car

bkkandrew · 19-07-2008, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

oh yeah I forgot, every Indian and Chinese has a car

Frightening thought.

Back to facts (you know those annoying things that get in the way of your opinion):

Chinese car ownership 1990 - 1 million. Source:

Individual Car Ownership Surging in China

Chinese car ownership 2000 - 16.0891 million; 2001 - 18.0204 million; 2002 - 20.5317 million. Source:

Demand for automobiles to maintain rapid, steady growth (hktdc.com)

Chinese car ownership esimated in 2005 - 30 million. Source:

Facts & Figures of Chinese Auto Industry -- Beijing Review

Chinese car ownership in 2007 - 56.97 million. Source:

Car Ownership up 32% in 2007 at China Car Times

According to CSMWorldwide, an American market analysis firm, China’s auto output would surpass 6 million units in 2008; China would replace Germany as the world’s third largest auto manufacturer in 2006; and by 2015, China may transcend Japan to become the second largest auto power.

Source:

Facts & Figures of Chinese Auto Industry -- Beijing Review

So then Butterfly - imaginary demand for fuel, eh?

I can do the numbers for India as well if you like, but I guess that, once again, you are embarrassed enough as it is being hopelessly, utterly wrong.

17-07-2008, 07:13 AM	#66 (permalink)
mrsquirrel Elite Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: In a rather cold and dark place Posts: 9,878	^ I don't know who to believe. Should I buy a some ETF in Oil today at this lower price and hope it rises, or will the airlines reduction in flights and the state of the world's economy mean it would be better to buy ETFs that short oil. Maybe I should buy even amounts in both and hope that I can play it both ways. __________________ To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

16-07-2008, 05:09 PM	#61 (permalink)
Travelmate Wat Traimit Last Online: Today 05:36 PM Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 949	i thought the world is only capable of supplying 85 million barrels per day. Suggested demand is approx 87 million plus. Thanks to emerging markets such as India & China.

16-07-2008, 06:06 PM	#62 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 10,005	^ even if those estimates are correct, a 2 million shorfall (less than 3% of overall supply) doesn't justify a jump of 200% in oil price because "demand" is too strong, it doesn't add up, and if your BS alarm doesn't go off then you are in the group of people that believe that money can grow on trees,

17-07-2008, 07:01 AM	#65 (permalink)
Boon Mee Senior Member Last Online: Today 04:48 PM Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 8,672	^T Boone Pickens , who is seldom wrong, has analyzed that'll go to $150.00 a barrel before too long.

17-07-2008, 03:12 PM	#68 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 10,005	^ MrsQ, speculating on oil with your hard earn money is not recommended try a mutual fund in Energy, it will diversified across many different type of energy, including renewables

17-07-2008, 04:49 PM	#69 (permalink)
Spin Scumbag Daytrader Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 7,107	Yesterdays price fall is attributed to the rise in stockpile levels in the USA. At 10.35am EST the news was released that there was more unused oil in the USA than there was a month ago. Oil dropped 6$ in 4 minutes. Therefore the price that the whole world pays for oil fell on one small piece of data. We have to realise that America is not the whole world and stockpiles in America dont affect demand in Brazil, Russia, India and China in a big way.There is some gossip around on the net that that Con. Rice has carved out some king of secret deal with the Iranians over their nuke program and missile testing. I dont have a link for this as I've only seen it on blogs, but reduced tensions in that region might see prices fall below the current support level of 130 and back towards 105.

17-07-2008, 07:58 PM	#70 (permalink)
britmaveric Elite Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 2,122	^dropped $10 in two days, this just shows you how much BS is going on in the market. This is all a facade - time kick these OPEC lads in the balls, they are def playing us.

18-07-2008, 10:53 AM	#73 (permalink)
britmaveric Elite Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 2,122	Dropped another $5 a barrel, hmmm heard a few reports say major drop will occur once the Chinese Olympics begins. (interesting to say the least)

19-07-2008, 03:57 PM	#74 (permalink)
bkkandrew Clingin' on... Last Online: Today 05:39 PM Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK Posts: 2,168	^If anyone plots the oil price based on the Olympics, they are seriously deluded. What next - are you going to say the the of year oil price will be the Decathlon points total devided by the 100m men's final winning time?

19-07-2008, 04:25 PM	#76 (permalink)
bkkandrew Clingin' on... Last Online: Today 05:39 PM Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK Posts: 2,168	^Imaginary demand from India and China? I suppose that imaginary demand is in respect of imaginary fuel to go in their new imaginary cars and trucks... I suppose Butterfly still thinks quaintly that they all go around on rickshaws and bicycles still.

19-07-2008, 05:48 PM	#79 (permalink)
Spin Scumbag Daytrader Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 7,107