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Bugs · 01-08-2008, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^As Brit somehow failed to copy and paste the next sentance of the WSJ article, I will do the honours:

Quote:

Newly revised data showed for the first time that the economy contracted at a 0.2% rate in the final three months of 2007, raising the prospect that a recession ...

Link: Free Preview - WSJ.com

So we are left wondering if Brit was trying to mislead everyone, or if he simple doesn't/cannot read the contents of documents he copies and pastes to the board...

Not to get into the middle of this or anything but according to the artical the US economy shrunk in the last quarter of '07 (down 0.2%), but grew in the first (0.9%) and second quarters (1.9%) of '08, right?

So one down quarter followed by two up quarters = ?

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 02:34 PM

^^ well, it's still not official troll, it's 2 quarter in a row last time I checked, so technically Brit is right, even though a recession is very likely

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^Er, no. The cars are still there, being driven and more being purchased to boot. If you could read, you would have seen that this demand is being negated by the collapse in demand in the US.

but you said earlier, that nothing will stop oil from rising because of China and India ? are you suffering from short term memory loss troll ? or being caught in your lies and deception again and changing your tunes ? you are fucking priceless, you know that

01-08-2008, 02:35 PM

^^The point was that the revision for Q7 07 was down (as is normally always the case for US GDP numbers), so when Q1 08 is revised the magic number wil be...

01-08-2008, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

but you said earlier, that nothing will stop oil from rising because of China and India ? are you suffering from short term memory loss troll ? or being caught in your lies and deception again and changing your tunes ? you are fucking priceless, you know that

Oh get a brain. The consumption from Chindia is increasing rapidly and, indeed has increased massively to date. Short-term, the resultant rise in oil price is being pared back by the collapsing US economy, however, when either:

Chindia's rising consumption outstrips US decline

or

US Economy recovers

The rise in price will continue. Unless production is increased significantly (and remember that has stagnated and marginally reduced since 2005).

And there's the rub. The 2008 production numbers are key. Unless the supply shows an increase from the 05/06/07 figure, we have to assume that they cannot increase production (based on the assumption that if you cannot increase at a time of a market price IRO $140/barrel, then you cannot increase production at all).

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 02:56 PM

yeah, yeah, keep dancing troll

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

The rise in price will continue. Unless production is increased significantly (and remember that has stagnated and marginally reduced since 2005).

quoting just in case you re-edit your posts when nailed with lies and mistakes, like you did previously with that IEA thing,

your dishonesty knows no limit, usually the case with ignorant trolls

01-08-2008, 03:00 PM

^And what is wrong with that?

The oil price will, naturally, rise, unless prodution increases to match demand. How difficult is that to understand?

The fact that demand from the US has reduced, due to the collapsing US economy, only delays this fact.

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 03:11 PM

Please explain those little jewels below then

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

given massive price elasticity (obvious to most, but of course, not you), this can quite easliy produce price rises of 1000's of percent.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

^Price elasticity, not demand elasticity. Spot the difference?

Priceless, you couldn't make that shit up, obviously you have no idea what is elasticity. Price elasticity of what, troll ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

On this thread, people have been referring to the fact that the price is elastic relating to oil in the short term, as oil and its byproducts are essential to life. Any disposable income by both individuals or companies will be used to fund any price increase, up to the point when disposable income is reduced to zero. This is the same as the price elasticity of food. Once the price goes beyond the level that can be afforded by total disposable income individuals riot (as has been happening) and companies collapse in part or whole, see airlines going bankrupt, or reducing their operations.

Quoting for posterity, so explain again why demand is going down since you were predicting that people will buy oil until they went bankrupt,

I don't see riots, I don't see people going bankrupt over oil, all I see, is a reduction in demand,

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

First, demand for oil is price elastic in the long term, not in the short term, as it takes time to adjust oil consumption habits.

It is not possible to state this, as for a large part, new technology is required for the conversion to take place. This technology has yet to be invented, implimented or funded.

Another jewel for posterity, just in case you start claiming you were right all along and never said anything like that

01-08-2008, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

I don't see riots, I don't see people going bankrupt over oil, all I see, is a reduction in demand,

Blind as well as dumb:

(1) Riots.

Anti-government rioting spreads in Cameroon - International Herald Tribune

China Fuel Riots

Fuel riots: 70,000 Spanish truckers blockade French border, strike turns ugly // Current

BBC NEWS | World | Middle East | Dozens dead in Yemen fuel riots

African scientists call for biofuel moratorium as fuel riots break out in Mozambique : Biofuels Digest

(2) Bankruptcies.

Maxjet shuts down, stranding holiday flyers - SmarterTravel.com

All-business-class carrier Silverjet shuts down - SmarterTravel.com

Skybus ceases operations - SmarterTravel.com

Eos Airlines stops flying - SmarterTravel.com

Aloha Airlines to stop flying by April 1 - SmarterTravel.com

Another one bites the dust: ATA ceases operations - SmarterTravel.com

01-08-2008, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

First, demand for oil is price elastic in the long term, not in the short term, as it takes time to adjust oil consumption habits.

It is not possible to state this, as for a large part, new technology is required for the conversion to take place. This technology has yet to be invented, implimented or funded.

Another jewel for posterity, just in case you start claiming you were right all along and never said anything like that

So you have invented a replacement technology for mass use of oil then? I think we should be told!

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 03:30 PM

^^ hardly the world world, or big enough to explain the BIG drop in prices

01-08-2008, 03:31 PM

Finished playing with you for today. Have to attend a meeting on 'collapse in demand'. I am sure that the delegates will listen to me a little more attentively than Butterfly.

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

It is not possible to state this, as for a large part, new technology is required for the conversion to take place. This technology has yet to be invented, implimented or funded.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

So you have invented a replacement technology for mass use of oil then? I think we should be told!

yes your quote, isn't it ridiculous

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Finished playing with you for today. Have to attend a meeting on 'collapse in demand'. I am sure that the delegates will listen to me a little more attentively than Butterfly.

priceless !!! another trip to the mia noi ? love it when you do that everytime you lose your argument or when I expose your little lies

britmaveric · 01-08-2008, 07:47 PM

Butterfy - Andrew talks a good game, but I have to agree he has the wrong reasons for the high prices.

Butterfly · 01-08-2008, 09:18 PM

^ don't fall for it, he has no idea what he is talking about, he is a fucking teacher posing as something he is not,

I admit though that the new links he is posting are quite useful, but I have a RSS feed for that already, no need for a cute troll to do the same here

02-08-2008, 03:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by bkkandrew

Finished playing with you for today. Have to attend a meeting on 'collapse in demand'. I am sure that the delegates will listen to me a little more attentively than Butterfly.

priceless !!! another trip to the mia noi ? love it when you do that everytime you lose your argument or when I expose your little lies

Mia Noi is in BKK. I am in London. Perhaps I am teaching in the Square Mile.

You utter dick.

Butterfly · 02-08-2008, 01:54 PM

^ International Jet Set teacher ?

04-08-2008, 03:41 AM

^And Butterfly reveals that he doesn't even know what the Square Mile is. Nice.

lannarebirth · 05-08-2008, 12:15 AM

I posted why prices behave as they do yet you're still fighting? More ego than intellect it seems.

01-08-2008, 09:18 PM	#276 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 15,554	^ don't fall for it, he has no idea what he is talking about, he is a fucking teacher posing as something he is not, I admit though that the new links he is posting are quite useful, but I have a RSS feed for that already, no need for a cute troll to do the same here Last edited by Butterfly : 01-08-2008 at 09:37 PM.

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01-08-2008, 02:35 PM	#263 (permalink)
bkkandrew Guest Posts: n/a	^^The point was that the revision for Q7 07 was down (as is normally always the case for US GDP numbers), so when Q1 08 is revised the magic number wil be...

01-08-2008, 03:00 PM	#266 (permalink)
bkkandrew Guest Posts: n/a	^And what is wrong with that? The oil price will, naturally, rise, unless prodution increases to match demand. How difficult is that to understand? The fact that demand from the US has reduced, due to the collapsing US economy, only delays this fact.

01-08-2008, 03:30 PM	#271 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 15,554	^^ hardly the world world, or big enough to explain the BIG drop in prices

01-08-2008, 03:31 PM	#272 (permalink)
bkkandrew Guest Posts: n/a	Finished playing with you for today. Have to attend a meeting on 'collapse in demand'. I am sure that the delegates will listen to me a little more attentively than Butterfly.

01-08-2008, 07:47 PM	#275 (permalink)
britmaveric nid aur yw popeth melyn Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Pattaya Posts: 3,565	Butterfy - Andrew talks a good game, but I have to agree he has the wrong reasons for the high prices.

02-08-2008, 01:54 PM	#278 (permalink)
Butterfly Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 15,554	^ International Jet Set teacher ?

04-08-2008, 03:41 AM	#279 (permalink)
bkkandrew Guest Posts: n/a	^And Butterfly reveals that he doesn't even know what the Square Mile is. Nice.

05-08-2008, 12:15 AM	#280 (permalink)
lannarebirth Jomtien Beach Last Online: 11-10-2008 09:45 PM Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Chiang Mai Posts: 38	I posted why prices behave as they do yet you're still fighting? More ego than intellect it seems.

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