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| | #241 (permalink) | ||
| Jomtien Beach Last Online: 11-10-2008 10:45 PM Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Chiang Mai
Posts: 38
| Quote:
well, I'm not sure speculation is the right word. it's speculation in as much that buying anything is speculation. In fact it is not speculation when the amount of money moving in that will always buy at any price moves the market in only one way...up. Unfortunately they had to take position sizes (and continue to) that are illegal. Here's a good explanation of what I'm talking about: Written testimony of Mr Michael Masters and the subsequent legislation: Commodities Now - New CFTC Powers In Farm Bill To Close 'Enron Loophole' These are giants barging there way into a midget sized market that was created solely for producers and hedgers. they sold it to the public as a "new asset class", which is pure bullshit. Nothing wrong with speculation, but what is happening in commodities markets is not mere speculation it is fraudulant. | ||
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| | #242 (permalink) |
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| Oil Rises More Than $4 After Unexpected Gasoline-Supply Decline Well, (despite the nonsense spouted by Butterfly) the race is is on to see how far falling US demand can offset Chindia's rising thirst for the stuff (on these figures, the US fall is not fast enough...): By Mark Shenk July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $4 a barrel, the biggest gain since July 10, after the U.S. Energy Department reported the first decline in gasoline inventories in five weeks. Supplies fell 3.53 million barrels to 213.6 million barrels last week, the department said today. Stockpiles were forecast to rise 350,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude supplies fell less than forecast and inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose. ``We are focused on the gasoline number because it had the greatest variance from expectations,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``This is the first bullish gasoline news in weeks.'' Crude oil for September delivery rose $4.58, or 3.8 percent, to settle at $126.77 a barrel at 2:54 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since July 22. Futures touched $120.42 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since May 6. Prices are up 65 percent from a year ago. U.S. fuel consumption averaged 20.2 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the department said. Gasoline demand in the U.S. peaks during the summer, when Americans take to the highways for vacations. The so-called driving season lasts from the Memorial Day weekend in late May to Labor Day in early September. `Eye-Opening' Number ``The gasoline number is eye-opening,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``It's getting most of the attention, but the driving season is coming to an end with only one month left and supplies are still ample.'' The drop in gasoline inventories last week left stockpiles 3 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said. Gasoline for August delivery rose 12.74 cents, or 4.2 percent, to settle at $3.1351 a gallon in New York, the highest close since July 22. It was the biggest one-day increase since June 11. Prices touched $2.9801 yesterday, the lowest since May 5. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11. Pump prices are following changes in futures. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.5 cents to $3.926 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said on its Web site. Prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17. ``Gasoline has been the weakest link in the energy complex,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``The gasoline number is a little bright light for the bulls, because otherwise the report is pretty bearish.'' Crude oil supplies declined 81,000 barrels to 295.2 million barrels last week, the report showed. A 1.3 million barrel drop was forecast in the Bloomberg News survey. Distillate Supplies Inventories of distillate fuel rose 2.4 million barrels to 130.5 million barrels last week, the report showed. A gain of 2.05 million was forecast, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates. ``I believe the distillate build is more important than the gasoline number,'' Mueller said. ``It shows that refiners are turning their attention to the winter.'' Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, said oil will recover to reach $149 a barrel by the end of this year because consumer demand has been ``restrained, but not destroyed,'' by record prices. ``The gasoline number obviously started the move higher,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``It's also part technical because we failed to take out $120. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is also a part of what's moving things higher.'' Nigerian Oil Falling Nigerian output is also supporting prices. Nigeria is now producing less than 1 million barrels of crude a day because of attacks by militants, ThisDay reported, citing an unidentified energy ministry official. Nigeria was the fourth- biggest source of U.S. oil imports during the first five months of the year, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Prior to the escalation of militant attacks that began in February 2006, Nigeria pumped as much as 2.6 million barrels a day, the paper said. The country was Africa's biggest oil producer until April when it was surpassed by Angola. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country will push forward with its nuclear program. The Persian Gulf country's highest authority spoke before a deadline for Iran to reply to an offer from world powers of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium- enrichment activities. ``Iran will pursue its peaceful nuclear energy,'' state television cited Khamenei as saying today. ``No one can undermine the nation's attempt to progress.'' Concern that the dispute over Iran's nuclear program might disrupt shipments from the country has supported prices since January 2006. Brent crude oil for September settlement rose $4.39, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $127.10 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...QRo&refer=home
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| | #243 (permalink) | |
| Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,629
| Quote:
I bet those Chinese have bought a few cars hence explaining the sudden rise in prices ![]() btw check the links about speculators, you might learn something | |
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| | #244 (permalink) |
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| ^Unlike you, I am busy. I am sure that more cars have been sold in China. Do you doubt that? Demand for oil is a tussle between expanding Chindia demand and contraction of demand in US, due to the collapsing economy. But you wouldn't understand... |
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| | #247 (permalink) | ||
| Suspended Member Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,629
| Quote:
Quote:
![]() and of course all market players have access to that data live, in real time, not letting their emotions running any of it | ||
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| | #249 (permalink) | |
| Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 7,856
| Quote:
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| | #251 (permalink) | |
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| Poor Brit Can't See What's Happening Quote:
America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website | |
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| | #253 (permalink) |
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| ^Brit clearly has difficulty reading the quoted article from my post. However, maybe he is better with pictures. Focus on the following chart: ![]() Source: St. Louis Fed: Series: BORROW, Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve |
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| | #254 (permalink) | ||
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| And for the more intelligent on the board - In print Quote:
Quote:
Source article: US economy shrinks for first time since 2001 | Business | guardian.co.uk | ||
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| | #255 (permalink) |
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| And in case you don't believe the leftie Guardian... U.S. Economy: Growth Rate Falls Short of Forecasts (Update1) By Bob Willis and Timothy R. Homan July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, signaling that the country is in worse shape than investors had anticipated. ``We're in a recession,'' Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``It's going to widen, it's going to deepen.'' Continued at: Bloomberg.com: Worldwide |
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| | #256 (permalink) |
| Clingin' on... Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: BKK
Posts: 3,997
| Which leads directly to reduced demand... ...(unless you are called Butterfly and believe that wild-eyed, crazy-hair speculators are to blame): Oil Falls More Than $2 as Fuel Demand Drops to Three-Year Low By Mark Shenk July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel, capping the biggest one-month decline since December 2004, as a slowing U.S. economy caused fuel consumption to weaken to the lowest in three years. The economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, curbing fuel demand. Consumption averaged 20.7 million barrels a day in the past 12 months, the lowest for the period since 2004-2005, according to U.S. Energy Department data. ``Expectations about the economy have deteriorated, which is weighing on the oil market,'' said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. ``With demand so poor, we have to re-examine price expectations. The market will be guided by the economic outlook here, in Europe and in the emerging markets.'' Note: I have put the most relevant bits in bold to enable those unable (or unwilling) to understand these matters (pay attention Messers Butterfly and Britmaverick) to see them more clearly. |
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