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Issues There is much going on in the world and the opportunity to discuss these issues and how they affect your world is always relevant. Your opinion is important and though we might not solve the problems confronting society, we just might open someones eyes. What is your opinion?

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Old 27-07-2008, 06:04 PM   #241 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by lannarebirth
The fact is that's illegal if that causes you to have a too great a position in the market.
not sure if it's illegal, they could buy contracts and short them at the same time, for different maturity, as a technique to limit their exposure to risk

don't think short selling is against the laws for the majority of these speculative funds, they might misrepresent the risks to their clients, but that's about it

now that the cat is out of the bag about speculation and the "imaginary" demand driving those prices, things will be back to normal, and the oil industry will be miserable again

well, I'm not sure speculation is the right word. it's speculation in as much that buying anything is speculation. In fact it is not speculation when the amount of money moving in that will always buy at any price moves the market in only one way...up. Unfortunately they had to take position sizes (and continue to) that are illegal.

Here's a good explanation of what I'm talking about:

Written testimony of Mr Michael Masters

and the subsequent legislation:

Commodities Now - New CFTC Powers In Farm Bill To Close 'Enron Loophole'

These are giants barging there way into a midget sized market that was created solely for producers and hedgers. they sold it to the public as a "new asset class", which is pure bullshit.

Nothing wrong with speculation, but what is happening in commodities markets is not mere speculation it is fraudulant.
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Old 31-07-2008, 03:59 AM   #242 (permalink)
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Oil Rises More Than $4 After Unexpected Gasoline-Supply Decline

Well, (despite the nonsense spouted by Butterfly) the race is is on to see how far falling US demand can offset Chindia's rising thirst for the stuff (on these figures, the US fall is not fast enough...):

By Mark Shenk



July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $4 a barrel, the biggest gain since July 10, after the U.S. Energy Department reported the first decline in gasoline inventories in five weeks.

Supplies fell 3.53 million barrels to 213.6 million barrels last week, the department said today. Stockpiles were forecast to rise 350,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude supplies fell less than forecast and inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose.

``We are focused on the gasoline number because it had the greatest variance from expectations,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``This is the first bullish gasoline news in weeks.''

Crude oil for September delivery rose $4.58, or 3.8 percent, to settle at $126.77 a barrel at 2:54 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since July 22. Futures touched $120.42 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since May 6. Prices are up 65 percent from a year ago.

U.S. fuel consumption averaged 20.2 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the department said.

Gasoline demand in the U.S. peaks during the summer, when Americans take to the highways for vacations. The so-called driving season lasts from the Memorial Day weekend in late May to Labor Day in early September.

`Eye-Opening' Number

``The gasoline number is eye-opening,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``It's getting most of the attention, but the driving season is coming to an end with only one month left and supplies are still ample.''

The drop in gasoline inventories last week left stockpiles 3 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said.

Gasoline for August delivery rose 12.74 cents, or 4.2 percent, to settle at $3.1351 a gallon in New York, the highest close since July 22. It was the biggest one-day increase since June 11. Prices touched $2.9801 yesterday, the lowest since May 5. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11.

Pump prices are following changes in futures. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.5 cents to $3.926 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said on its Web site. Prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.

``Gasoline has been the weakest link in the energy complex,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``The gasoline number is a little bright light for the bulls, because otherwise the report is pretty bearish.''

Crude oil supplies declined 81,000 barrels to 295.2 million barrels last week, the report showed. A 1.3 million barrel drop was forecast in the Bloomberg News survey.

Distillate Supplies

Inventories of distillate fuel rose 2.4 million barrels to 130.5 million barrels last week, the report showed. A gain of 2.05 million was forecast, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates.

``I believe the distillate build is more important than the gasoline number,'' Mueller said. ``It shows that refiners are turning their attention to the winter.''

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, said oil will recover to reach $149 a barrel by the end of this year because consumer demand has been ``restrained, but not destroyed,'' by record prices.

``The gasoline number obviously started the move higher,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``It's also part technical because we failed to take out $120. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is also a part of what's moving things higher.''

Nigerian Oil

Falling Nigerian output is also supporting prices. Nigeria is now producing less than 1 million barrels of crude a day because of attacks by militants, ThisDay reported, citing an unidentified energy ministry official. Nigeria was the fourth- biggest source of U.S. oil imports during the first five months of the year, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Prior to the escalation of militant attacks that began in February 2006, Nigeria pumped as much as 2.6 million barrels a day, the paper said. The country was Africa's biggest oil producer until April when it was surpassed by Angola.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country will push forward with its nuclear program. The Persian Gulf country's highest authority spoke before a deadline for Iran to reply to an offer from world powers of economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for the suspension of its uranium- enrichment activities.

``Iran will pursue its peaceful nuclear energy,'' state television cited Khamenei as saying today. ``No one can undermine the nation's attempt to progress.''

Concern that the dispute over Iran's nuclear program might disrupt shipments from the country has supported prices since January 2006.

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose $4.39, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $127.10 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

From:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...QRo&refer=home
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Old 31-07-2008, 05:24 AM   #243 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bkkandrew
Well, (despite the nonsense spouted by Butterfly) the race is is on to see how far falling US demand can offset Chindia's rising thirst for the stuff (on these figures, the US fall is not fast enough...):
Where have you been troll ? hiding when it was clear you were a complete fraud and a loonie

I bet those Chinese have bought a few cars hence explaining the sudden rise in prices

btw check the links about speculators, you might learn something
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Old 31-07-2008, 05:43 AM   #244 (permalink)
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^Unlike you, I am busy. I am sure that more cars have been sold in China. Do you doubt that?

Demand for oil is a tussle between expanding Chindia demand and contraction of demand in US, due to the collapsing economy.

But you wouldn't understand...
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Old 31-07-2008, 11:50 AM   #245 (permalink)
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China's economy is collapsing?
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Old 31-07-2008, 02:28 PM   #246 (permalink)
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^Can you read?

Quote:
contraction of demand in US, due to the collapsing economy.
Which word were you stuck on?
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Old 31-07-2008, 03:48 PM   #247 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bkkandrew
^Unlike you, I am busy.
yeah, yeah, busy with the mianoi, we know already

Quote:
Originally Posted by bkkandrew
Demand for oil is a tussle between expanding Chindia demand and contraction of demand in US, due to the collapsing economy.

But you wouldn't understand...


and of course all market players have access to that data live, in real time, not letting their emotions running any of it
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Old 31-07-2008, 08:34 PM   #248 (permalink)
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I was being ironic - Yank economy is no where near collapsing, so I humbly submit you are out of your mind and have lost the plot.
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Old 31-07-2008, 08:53 PM   #249 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by britmaveric
Yank economy is no where near collapsing
Scotch Mist
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Old 31-07-2008, 09:29 PM   #250 (permalink)
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^ it grew though.
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Old 31-07-2008, 09:35 PM   #251 (permalink)
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Poor Brit Can't See What's Happening

Quote:
It's shocking to see so many who remain in denial about the economy, specifically the pundits. Until they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (a ridiculously misleading metric – see my previous article “How Washington is Fooling You With GDP Data”) they refuse to admit we are in a recession. And the media acts as puppets, repeating these same lines without scrutinizing the data. Who do these people think they're kidding? If you're running a show designed to help investors, shouldn't you be ahead of the curve instead of behind it? Serving as broadcasters for inaccurate data that's been manipulated to fool the public does nothing to aid an audience looking for real investment guidance.

Apparently, even Washington realizes GDP data is highly inaccurate and makes revisions for up to five years. As of 2004, such revisions have already introduced question as to whether there was a recession in 2001. By 2012, we might see data that indicated we were in a recession in 2008. But that certainly won't help anyone except historians who document the Bush era, in what will be remembered as the worst recovery attempt in U.S. history.

By now, even the most financially unintelligent consumers realize we're in a recession. They feel it every time they fill up their gas tank and buy food. They've been patiently waiting for real pay increases. Instead, all they've gotten are a couple of rebate checks from Washington . What kind of charade is this? Giving consumers money you have to borrow from China , hoping they will spend it on goods (most likely from China ) so you can inflate GDP data? You have to be kidding me. I would expect such an approach to fly in some third world country, but not the United States . When Washington sends you rebate checks and tells you to go out and spend it rather than pay off your credit cards, you need to interpret that as an admission that we are in a deep recession.

Even for those lucky enough to have received the standard 2% or 3% raise, they're still making much less than a few years ago due to the inflation data that continues to be fudged. As the data shows, there have been no real median wage increases for eight years. Only now does Bernanke admit inflation is a problem and states there are "significant challenges" to the economy. But still he is understating what to me has been obvious for over two years.

Why didn't Bernanke warn people ahead of time. Why did he wait for all of the blood to spill before confessing the obvious? If Bernanke wishes to play the role of broadcaster he needs to apply for a position on one of the television networks. The problem is that consumers have been fooled into thinking the Fed provides accurate guidance on the economy. Their track record speaks for itself. At best, the Fed is a broadcaster and at worst a cheerleader, much like those seen on TV. And if Bernanke wants to play the role of bailout chief he needs admit that America no longer has a real free market economy. In real free market economies, the risk of failure is present; no exceptions. If companies get in trouble they need to allow the free markets to determine their fate, not taxpayers. Otherwise, all you really have is socialism for corporations.

Always remember, you cannot have a truly strong economy when the dollar is weak. The same holds true (although to a lesser extent) for high commodity prices and inflation. And when you're in a war, things don't get any better, except for the GDP component due to military spending in Iraq – more debt used to boost GDP numbers. Not only has the dollar been weak for several years now, but we've also had high oil and commodity prices ever since the U.S. occupation of Iraq .

Perhaps you recall as I do the excuses made for the dotcom meltdown a few years back. As their only way to escape admission of guilt in creating what was at that time the biggest asset bubble in history, analysts and economists finally started to proclaim “It's the economy stupid.” And yes, in fact it was the economy. It was the inherent weakness in America 's consumption-based economy that expanded the Internet bubble. But it was Wall Street and the media who created the grand illusion that really pumped it up. The economy only revealed its true nature once stripped of these illusions. But soon after, Greenspan re-inked the presses and started the charade again.

Today we see much of the same. America is dealing with the aftermaths of a huge credit bubble. Similar to the Internet bubble, we've witnessed the creation of a real estate-driven credit bubble by the Fed and Wall Street, while encouraged by Washington and the media. And now reality is setting in as we continue to see the true nature of America 's real economy without the grand illusions created by overconsumption. Soon, the economy will become even weaker than after the dotcom meltdown.

Since Bush took office, America has lost millions of jobs, and investors have lost trillions of dollars as a result of the implosion of the two largest asset bubbles in history. Bush's list of records is too long to list. Foreign nations have bought trillions of dollars of critical assets at fire sale prices - from the Chrysler building, to every single bit of America 's once highly acclaimed underwater fiber optic network. Meanwhile, U.S. banks have begged Asia and the Middle East for billions. Where did they get this money? From huge trade surpluses created via spending habits of U.S. consumers. If you think this has been bad, brace yourself for much more, because this is only the beginning.
Continued here:

America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
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Old 31-07-2008, 09:41 PM   #252 (permalink)
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I agree economy has slowed, but its still chugging along!
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Old 01-08-2008, 03:26 AM   #253 (permalink)
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^Brit clearly has difficulty reading the quoted article from my post.

However, maybe he is better with pictures. Focus on the following chart:



Source:

St. Louis Fed: Series: BORROW, Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve
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Old 01-08-2008, 03:46 AM   #254 (permalink)
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And for the more intelligent on the board - In print

Quote:
United States economy shrinks for first time since 2001
Quote:

The US economy shrank at the end of 2007 for the first time in six years, according to official figures, leading analysts to speculate the world's largest economy may be in recession.

The commerce department revised its estimate for the fourth quarter to show gross domestic product contracted 0.2% - rather than growing 0.6% as it previously reported. It was the first three-month period in which GDP shrank since growth contracted by 1.4% in the third quarter of 2001 during the last official recession.

The department also reported that GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9%, up from a revised-down 0.9% in the first quarter. This figure was lower than analysts' expectations of a 2.3% rise in second-quarter growth.

Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said: "At first glance, the 1.9% annualised gain in US GDP in Q2 would seem to make a mockery of claims that the economy is in recession. However, given that the Treasury pumped in $91bn (£45bn), or nearly 4% at an annualised pace, in the form of tax rebates during the quarter, the actual outturn is pretty disappointing. It was also below the consensus forecast of a 2.3% gain.

"Moreover, GDP growth in the preceding two quarters was revised down. In particular, the economy is now estimated to have contracted by 0.2% in Q4 of last year, raising the possibility that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will eventually conclude that the recession began some time during the final three months of 2007."

Recession is popularly defined as at least two quarters of negative economic growth but the US has its own method of assessment, with the NBER's business cycle-dating committee making a judgment.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, rose 1.5% in the second quarter of the year, up from 0.9% in the first quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter last year.

The department noted that personal incomes had risen more sharply in the second quarter and attributed it primarily to the stimulus payments that the government was issuing to qualifying consumers.

Activity in the construction sector is still plummeting at a double-digit rate. Spending on home building contracted at a 15.6% annual rate in the second quarter, down from rates of 25.1% in the first quarter and 27% in last year's fourth quarter.

In other data released today, the US labour department said the number of workers filing claims for new jobless benefits jumped 44,000 last week. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 448,000 last week from a revised 404,000 the week before, and the highest reading since April 2003.
(My bold) Anyone else want to argue that the US economy is not in a state of collapse?

Source article: US economy shrinks for first time since 2001 | Business | guardian.co.uk
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Old 01-08-2008, 04:10 AM   #255 (permalink)
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And in case you don't believe the leftie Guardian...

U.S. Economy: Growth Rate Falls Short of Forecasts (Update1)


By Bob Willis and Timothy R. Homan




July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, signaling that the country is in worse shape than investors had anticipated.

``We're in a recession,'' Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``It's going to widen, it's going to deepen.''


Continued at:

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
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Old 01-08-2008, 04:14 AM   #256 (permalink)
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Which leads directly to reduced demand...

...(unless you are called Butterfly and believe that wild-eyed, crazy-hair speculators are to blame):

Oil Falls More Than $2 as Fuel Demand Drops to Three-Year Low

By Mark Shenk




July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel, capping the biggest one-month decline since December 2004, as a slowing U.S. economy caused fuel consumption to weaken to the lowest in three years.

The economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, curbing fuel demand. Consumption averaged 20.7 million barrels a day in the past 12 months, the lowest for the period since 2004-2005, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

``Expectations about the economy have deteriorated, which is weighing on the oil market,'' said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. ``With demand so poor, we have to re-examine price expectations. The market will be guided by the economic outlook here, in Europe and in the emerging markets.''

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Old 01-08-2008, 04:29 AM   #257 (permalink)
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