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ceburat

Some world leaders are so evil and sorry that they need a real wake up call. Remember a few years ago when an African leader had his home visited by some US JETS. He certainly changed his attitude. This general in Burma and his men live remote from the people=a real target going to waste. Not that I would do such a thing....just thinking outloud.

obsidian

???...

Reaper

Russia and China are after access.

The Chinese are sitting on their arses as they want to lay an oil and gas pipeline through Burma to the Burmese coast from China. Maybe even tapping into the Burmese oil and gas reserves on its way. They are however hoping to cut time and risk of sending tankers through the Malacca Strait. (That is from The Economist in the December issue I think)

The Chinese are also sitting on their arses as they traded Burma a few years ago. Naval faciliteis rebuilt by the Chinese for an intelligence gathering post on the Small and Great Coco Island. Essentially the Chinese took over the island for intelligence gathering. From there they can monitor the Indian Navy and the Strait of Malacca.

China also offered a deep seaport in exchange for a road contacting the Burmese coast to the Chinese mainland. That was started in 2005 called the Kunming-Kyuakpu road.

The Russians want oil and gas, hence they offered them Russian arms as a sweetener. This was also to ensure that they do not use Chinese arms and ammunition hence blocking the Chinese from the arms market. I think the Chinese sold the Burmese a few billion dollars of arms and ammunition over the years.

Burma is a brothel of sorts. Burma sold Thailand $1 Billion of gas in 2004 and now supplies Thailand with 20% of its gas needs. Natural gas makes up 1/3 of their income and it is estimated that there is another 3 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Gulf of Bengal. Try to remember that Russia is in deep shit with a lack of gas. They need the Burmese gas as oil as gas account for 50% of Russian budget revenues and 65% of its exports and demand is outstripping supply - see Gazprom.

So yes, they have vested interests!

Reaper

One more thing. I suspect it is the Chinese who are telling Burma to not let the UN into the country.

mackayae

Aung San Suu Kyi.
I heard she is alive, but her house was badly damaged.

Mid

Labutta/Cologne. "By now, we have treated the first cholera patients," Malteser International staff members report from the hardly affected coastal town in the Irrawaddy Delta. Since the cyclone hit the region, the people here in Labutta could only drink water from wells that have been spoilt and heavily polluted by the flood wave."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/from...1093784952.htm

__________________
"Keeping quiet while monks and other peaceful protesters are murdered and jailed is not evidence of constructive engagement." - Arvind Ganesan, Human Rights Watch.

"I think...I think it's in my basement. Let me go upstairs and check" - M.C. Escher

Texpat

The value of these people's lives is almost nothing.

Norton

An observation. We know the junta could care less how many of it's citizens die or suffer. Not just from this incident but from their entire history. To their twisted minds people are a plentiful commodity and at times cause difficulties. Having a few hundred thousand die is of no consequence and result in a few less mouths to feed. They have absolutely no incentive to have "foreigners" in the country.

If this is the attitude, then even if China and Russia should or has approached the "junta" to negotiate letting in foriegn aid, they would get nowhere. Given the Chinese and Russian economic investment in the country, they have no negotiation leverage on the junta. The junta holds all the cards here because the west and yes China has dealt them a winning hand over the last 45 years.

The immediate crisis will pass with thousands dead. It will be forgotten. And the outrage will subside until the next session of atrocities is watched by another round of hand wringing by a world unwilling to fix it.

__________________
Eat right, exercise daily, live clean, die anyway.

chinthee

Norton, this is the same attitude of Chavez in Venezuela. These are malevolent evil leaders who are ready to sacrifice their peasant people.

Some leftists think this is the natural order.

I don't agree. I think people need a chance.

Norton

As do I, and I certainly know mid and many others here do as well. All these years we've listened to the threats and observed the sanctions which have had absolutely no effect on the bastards. The reality is the world doesn't care enough for the people of Burma to take the risks necessary to put an end to is. This leaves only one alternative to the Burmese people. Continue to live under the tyranny or sacrifice themselves against formidable odds to end it.

chinthee

Yes, and it's not just the people of Burma. It's the people of Venezuela, and of several more countries.

The simple fact that some of these regimes may be against the current US President does not mean that these countries don't share so many things in common with American people.

Mid

wonder how the worlds conscience will fair ...........................

Texpat

I sit in wonder watching the stark contrast between the dual catastrophes on the TV.

China welcomes aid, media, help. The junta bars nearly everybody. China seems to have their shit together despite some very shoddy buildings.

Burma is coming across to the world as a bunch of apes. But at the end of the day, it's their country -- and it's elder cousins of Russia and China say nothing.

Jet Gorgon

Or, like many of their brethren, sneak into Thailand and hope not to be caught and chucked in Immigration jail. Then, maybe a refugee camp or work on a construction site. Just hope that the boss is slightly honest and pays the Bt100 a day rather than killing you off in the jungle or on a boat. (Several years back, a friend was on the beach in south Samui and saw a dog run by with an arm in its mouth. Then up ambled a few cops chucking body parts in a big basket.) Nobody cares if a few Burmese go missing.

DaveRobin

Funny how genocide in Rawanda didn't elicit this moral stand from the west. Again it's about resources: China and Russia got there before Cheney and his puppet nation is pissed. Yanks say 100,000 plus have died and 1 million threatened with cholera, disease nuclear bombs and maybe even popeye. Wait a while - more people will have died during the hot Europen summer a couple of years back!

Mid

Chinese Build Trial Iron Factory
6/11/2008



Rathidaung: A Chinese company is constructing a trial iron industrial unit in southwest Rathidaung Township to produce iron from the regions' beach sand, according to a report coming out of the area.

The report said, "The trial factory for iron has been under construction by the Chinese company in the area for a few years and will be completed very soon."

The factory is located between Angu Maw and Ko Dan Kauk Village, located at the promontory of the Mayu Peninsula in Rathidaung Township, 20 miles north of Arakan's state capital Sittwe.

The report said that sand in the area contains aluminum along with iron ore, and it is possible to produce iron ore from the sand.

A witness said many Chinese and even Western engineers are now working on the factory, and many lands from the local people have been confiscated for it's location.

He also said that everybody can see the factory from the surrounding area, but local people are not allowed to visit the area near the building itself.

The military authorities sent an army column and Nasaka 25 camp to the area to serve as security escorts for the foreigners. Nasaka 25 is now stationed at Angu Maw Village.

The report said that many modern and high power machines that were brought from China have been arriving at the factory compound recently, and it is speculated that the machinery will be used to produce iron.

Many Chinese companies, such as CNOOC, HQCEC, and PetroChina have been getting opportunities from the Burmese military government to invest in oil, gas, and other business sectors in Burma.

These Chinese companies are involved in many business sectors in Arakan State, including gas and oil exploration. #

narinjara.com

Mid

Zarganar (2e en partant de la gauche)

Reporters Without Borders and the Burma Media Association, an organisation of Burmese journalists in exile, condemn a series of measures taken by military government in the past few days to control news and information coming out of the cyclone-hit Irrawaddy delta

The blogger and comedian known by the stage name of Zarganar was arrested without explanation on 5 June. The police began confiscating satellite dishes on 6 June in order to deny Burmese access to foreign news media. And the official press published articles denigrating the foreign media on 8 June. Furthermore, several journalists have been expelled in recent weeks and it has become impossible to get a press visa.

“We call for the immediate release of Zarganar, whose arrest is typical of the contempt shown by military junta towards those who express themselves freely,” the two organisations said. “Zarganar is very well known in Burma. In his sketches and in the blog he has keep since August 2007 (WinDoor), he defends human rights and condemns the junta’s behaviour. He had become a source of news and information.”

Zarganar, who has been dubbed the “Burmese Charlie Chaplin,” gave an interview to a foreign TV station on the eve of his arrest in which he criticised the government and referred to a group of 400 people who have managed to provide relief assistance to the victims of last month’s cyclone despite a government ban. The group cooperated with another one founded by a Buddhist month.

The authorities told Zarganar’s family that they would hold him for “only two days” in order to question him, but he has not been released.



“Many journalists are being prevented from working freely and the foreign media are being attacked in the official press, which is trying to discredit them,” Reporters Without Borders and the Burma Media Association said. “Activists are playing a vital role in providing news and information through what they are posting online. We condemn the way the authorities are deliberately trying seal the citizens of the Irrawaddy delta behind a wall of silence.”

Several foreign journalists, including CNN and Time reporters have been deported in the past few weeks and others have been refused visas.

The New Light of Myanmar, a government newspaper, referred to “enemy” radio stations on 8 June. "The storm is now no more. However, the enemy that is more destructive than (Cyclone) Nargis has reared its ugly head," the newspaper said. "It is time (that) the foreign broadcasting stations and their accomplices knew that their instigation and propaganda are good for nothing. And they should stop broadcasting such kinds of fabricated news." (See below)

According to Burmese exile media reports , the police are also confiscating the satellite dishes that Burmese citizens use to receive foreign TV stations. Around 50 dishes were reportedly seized from a Rangoon store on 6 June.

The Burmese board of censors has banned news and pictures about the cyclone not only in local newspapers and monthly magazines but also in foreign magazines, such as the 26 May and 2 June issues of Time magazine.

rsf.org

Mid

We have new, disturbing, and detailed intelligence about the assistance Russia is providing Burma’s dictatorship, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), on its nuclear program and more generally its military modernization. This new information both confirms earlier intelligence that we have published, and expands what is known about the overall program.

Nuclear reactor and uranium mining

It has been widely reported that Russia is going to provide Burma a nuclear reactor, for so-called “research” purposes. We have received information that the SPDC has now purchased the 10 MW reactor. It is not new, but is reportedly in good condition. It is being dismantled, transported to Burma, and rebuilt. While we cannot confirm that it has arrived, our sources say that installation is due to be completed by December this year. (We have previously reported that North Korean technicians will assist with the construction.)

The reactor will be built at a site some ten kilometers from Kyauk Pa Toe, in Tha Beik Kyin township, approximately one hundred kilometers north of Mandalay near the Irrawaddy River.

In return for the reactor and other services, a Russian government mining company has received concessions to mine gold, titanium and uranium. There are two gold mining sites: in Kyauk Pa Toe; and in the mountains to the right of the Thazi-Shwe Nyaung railway line from Mandalay Division to Southern Shan State in the Pyin Nyaung area.

Titanium is also being mined, or derived from the same ore, at Kyauk Pa Toe.

Uranium is being mined at three locations: in the Pegu-Yoma mountain range in Pauk Kaung Township of Prome District (aka Pyi); in the Paing Ngort area in Mo Meik Township in Shan State; and at Kyauk Pa Toe.

The reactor site has been chosen because of its proximity to the Tha Beik Kyin and Mo Meik uranium mines. It is likely that the gold mining operation at the former will be used as cover, to conceal the nuclear facilities.

We have previously reported, from different sources, that the SPDC has a yellowcake mill somewhere in the Tha Beik Kyin area. Now we know the exact location (or at least enough information to find it with satellite imagery).

The reactor has been publicized as being for research purposes, meaning research on nuclear power generation. We believe that the SPDC has no real interest in generating electricity, or at best that this is a secondary consideration, and that the primary purpose is atomic weapons development. Our sources say that the SPDC expects to have full nuclear capability within ten years.

Russia is presumably supplying the reactor fuel as well. While Burma has uranium ore, and mills to convert it to yellowcake, this must be enriched to create the fuel, typically using cascades of gas centrifuges. We have received one report that the SPDC has begun a centrifuge program, at the South Nawin Dam, but this is unconfirmed. Barring this operation, the source of the fuel therefore must be Russia.

Note: Locating the reactor at Kyauk Pa Toe really only makes sense if there are plans to build an enrichment facility there. This way you would have the full industrial cycle in close proximity: mine, mill, enrichment, and reactor.

What is perhaps most disturbing about Russia’s program with the SPDC is that it is identical to the Soviet Union’s assistance that propelled North Korea to become a nuclear power. Why, with the end of the Soviet Union and the Cold War, is Russia still helping rogue regimes proliferate? The surface answer of course is money, in this case in the form of natural resources, but the deeper question remains. Russia is considered to be a democracy. What would the people of the country think of their leaders giving such help to the likes of the SPDC and Than Shwe?

In 1965, the Soviet Union gave North Korea a 2 MW reactor, which was upgraded in 1973 to 8 MW. It also supplied fuel through at least this period. North Korea then went on to construct a much larger reactor, and in the 1980s began weapons development. This included building separation facilities to obtain plutonium, and high explosives detonation tests. (We have received reports that the SPDC has already conducted such tests, in the Setkhya Mountains southeast of Mandalay.) At some point North Korea also began its own uranium enrichment program, to produce weapons grade material, and the U.S. confronted the country about this in 2002. This means that the North has two different sources of fissile material for weapons, reactor plutonium and enriched uranium.

The North detonated a small atomic weapon, with a yield of less than one kiloton, in October 2006, using some of its plutonium. It is now reportedly about to disclose its nuclear assets, and also destroy its plutonium producing reactor, but the sticking point has been the enriched uranium. The North appears unwilling to discuss this (and at this point to disclose its weapons cache), which means that even with the destruction of the reactor and the plutonium stockpile (for the latter the size of which is subject to serious dispute), the North would retain the ability to produce weapons with the uranium. At the moment the U.S. appears willing to accept partial disclosure, i.e., of only the plutonium.

In addition to Russia, North Korean technicians have been helping Burma with its nuclear ambitions (and other weapons programs), and we have received information that the SPDC has given the North refined uranium in return, which may be destined for the enrichment program.

This is all very disturbing, all the more so because of the apparent weakness of the Bush Administration, which has been unwilling to press the North, and which refuses even to mention Burma (its nuclear program). It took North Korea forty years before it detonated a weapon. It will likely take the SPDC only a fraction of this period. Once the Burmese junta has atomic weapons, its rule will be entrenched, and its neighbors, foremost Thailand, will be seriously endangered.

Precision-guided munitions

We have also previously reported that Burma has a wide variety of missile installations, including large quantities of land-based SAMs; ship-launched missiles, both surface to air and surface to surface; weapons for its MIG 29s; and even short range ballistic missiles. We have now received information that while Burma formerly bought anti-aircraft weapons from the Ukraine, in 2007 it purchased four shiploads of such weapons from Russia. We have also learned that the SPDC has multi-tube mechanized rocket launchers from North Korea. (Note: these may be for use with the ballistic missiles, and if so they confirm our earlier intelligence.)

Moreover, Burma is researching the production of guided missiles, and with Russian assistance intends to build a rocket factory in Thazi Township. This will mark the latest step in a well-recognized proliferation of Russian precision-guided munitions in the Asia Pacific region. This class of weapons includes surface to air, to attack jets, and surface to surface to attack land-based targets and also ships. Cruise missiles fall within the category. We do not know which specific PGMs the factory intends to produce, only that they will be medium range guided rockets and that production is scheduled to begin within five years.

It is clear that the SPDC is intent on developing a strong defense against an international intervention, including foreign jets, helicopters and ships. Perhaps one reason why the U.S. and the French balked at dropping relief supplies following Cyclone Nargis was the risk of missile attack on their helicopters and ships.

Military modernization

We have previously noted that the Burma Army is weapons-deficient. It is clear that the extensive procurement program underway with Russia, as well as China, North Korea and others, is intended to rectify this. During the era of Ne Win and the BSPP (Burma Socialist Program Party), the junta established six weapons production facilities. There are now twenty-two, and clearly more are planned.

Coupled with the materiel acquisitions is a major educational program. There are more than 5,000 State Scholars in Russia, all of whom passed their Defense Services Academy class, a nine-month program in the Russian language, and an entrance exam in their specialty. (This is an increase from the 3,000 we previously reported.) They are candidates for either a masters (2 years) or doctorate (4 years – we previously reported 3 years for this degree). They study in Moscow or St. Petersburg, in the former in a suburb at the Moscow Air Institute. There are additional State Scholars from Burma in China, North Korea, Pakistan and India.

One of the more recent groups of scholars, Batch Seven, included 1,100 DSA officers. Their majors are as follows:

250 Nuclear science
100 Tunneling science
200 Rockets
100 Electronics
200 Computer science
100 Aircraft construction
150 Artillery

The students also learn other military subjects, including: tanks; maintenance; anti-aircraft training; ammunition production; fighter pilot training; naval craft construction; naval craft captaincy; and anti-terrorist training.

While it is clear that the overall modernization program will improve the SPDC’s preparedness against attack, the junta still has a significant problem with soldier morale. Many of the state scholars, who are an elite in the Tatmadaw, are not motivated and would seek asylum given the chance. Their stipends barely cover their expenses. The Russian language and their training programs are difficult. They are overworked and separated from the civilian population. Their visas prohibit them from buying air, train or long-distance bus tickets. When they return to Burma, some are used as Russian language teachers or as instructors at the SPDC’s Central Research and Training Unit, but many are sent to the front lines.

As an example, in January this year one scholar fled to the border of Finland, but was arrested by Russian intelligence agents when he used his cell phone to call his contact on the other side. There is widespread dissatisfaction at all levels within the SPDC, except perhaps the very top – although there is reportedly a split there as well, between Than Shwe and Maung Aye. While the new weapons systems improve the junta’s defense against an intervention, they still need operators. The SPDC is poised to fall, through an internal coup, and it is subject to a renewed popular uprising as well.

Acquiring a nuclear weapon would alter this equation somewhat, but really only by creating a new