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blackgang

I think that this guy has been thinking the same as me..

azcentral.com | Phoenix Arizona News - Arizona Local News

End of the world as we know it

You might feel fine, but high oil cost, scarcity mean American Empire is about to come crashing down

Guy R. McPherson
University of Arizona professor
Apr. 6, 2008 12:00 AM
Peak oil spells the end of civilization. And, if it's not already too late, perhaps it will prevent the extinction of our species.

M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the halfway point for production.

The bell-shaped curve applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, production ramps up relatively quickly. But when the light, sweet crude on top of the field runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down. advertisement

Most of the world's oil pumps are about to shut down.

We have sufficient supply to keep the world running for 30 years or so, at the current level of demand. But that's irrelevant because the days of inexpensive oil are behind us. And the American Empire absolutely demands cheap oil. Never mind the 3,000-mile Caesar salad to which we've become accustomed. Cheap oil forms the basis for the 12,000-mile supply chain underlying the "just-in-time" delivery of plastic toys from China.

There goes next year's iPod.

In 1956, Hubbert predicted the continental United States would peak in 1970. He was correct, and the 1970s gave us a small, temporary taste of the sociopolitical and economic consequences of expensive oil.

We passed the world oil peak in 2005, and we've been easing down the other side by acquiring oil at the point of a gun - actually, guns are the smallest of the many weapons we're using - paying more for oil and destroying one culture after another as the high price of crude oil forces supply disruptions and power outages in Third World countries.

The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude. Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days.

Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. Never mind happy motoring through the never-ending suburbs in the Valley of the Sun. In a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100 percent, inflation will be running at 1,000 percent and central heating will be a pipe dream.

In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age.

After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid.

Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil.

If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally.

The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don't involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart.

On the other hand, the forthcoming cessation of economic growth is truly good news for the world's species and cultures. In addition, the abrupt halt of fossil-fuel consumption may slow the warming of our planetary home, thereby preventing our extinction at our own hand.

Our individual survival, and our common future, depends on our ability to quickly make other arrangements. We can view this as a personal challenge, or we can take the Hemingway out. The choice is ours.

For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it's time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet's citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life.

It's time to push away from the shore, to let the winds of change catch the sails of our leaky boat.

It's time to trust in ourselves, our neighbors and the Earth that sustains us all.

Painful though it might be, it's time to abandon the cruise ship of empire in exchange for a lifeboat.



Guy R. McPherson is a professor of conservation biology at the University of Arizona.

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Did you know the average male is 6 inches long, and the average female is 8 inches deep? So in New York City alone there is over 3 miles of unused pussy!

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DrAndy

jolly good

now, who wants to buy a nice pickup? or sell me a bicycle?

Marmite the Dog

I suppose it's Mother Nature's way of cleansing herself if it comes true. I'd best git meself a gun.

DrAndy

no bullets Marmite, they are made of oil

Marmite the Dog

Luckily I'm English. A broken bottle should be fine (or are they made from oil too?).

DrAndy

yep, made of oil

Marmite the Dog

A dead cat?

Gerbil

.... what if things go badly though?

Texpat

e'll end up with fur in his mouf and scritches all over 'is back.

MeMock

I agree with the fact that oil is on the way up and will never come back down. $400 a barrel? Thats cheap! However I don't think it will be the end of an empire/world etc. We will adapt.

Hootad Binky

Electric cars works just fine; also the US has extensive geo-thermal and solar sources in the West and Southwest that could be plugged into a national grid.The US fancies itself the most innovative nation on earth yet can't seem to plan its way out of this one

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GooMaiRoo

Excellent thoughts and references, HB. Only one problem: without a lust for oil, the US probably doesn't get to invade anybody. I'm convinced that the addiction to oil is directly tied to the addiction to power. Oil is the currency that allows this sick and lurid power game to be played out on the world stage by creepy old men. The Bushes and Cheneys of the world should let go of the power and oil thing (it's so 20th Century), take up bowling or whoring at Nana Plaza and leave the planet alone.

Plan B

^^ That's right MM. We've had negative vibe merchants telling us these sorts of things for decades. "The world's gonna run out of X in Y number of years" It's never happened. Alternative sources are found, new technology is made. If you throw enough money into researching the new tech, you'll get a solution. Right now the amount of outlay to solve the problem isn't worth it cause the solution would (initially) cost more than the current system and no one would use it.

There have been plenty of rumours about water engines, electric cars, air powered cars and other suppressed/shelved ideas. Salvation prolly exists already but won't get released until the powers that be have maximised their profits on the current oil tech.

MeMock

The thing is Plan B, I do think there will be an overlap of a decade or so when prices get so high and before people are able to adapt.

That will be very interesting times and I believe will be the most historic decade or so in earth history as we know it but then after a few more decades we will all wonder what it was all about.

Bring it on!

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sabang

One of the reasons I've willingly put up the place in Isaan is there are plenty of forests left locally (so far), and you can be self sufficient there between what you grow, raise, forage and hunt. Just in case.

Theres one ominous aspect the article doesn't broach. Sure, the oil grab by the US and UK has it's impact on other countries and cultures. But what about when you also bring China, Russia and maybe India into the equation? When the Big Boys are competing for dwindling resources, necessary to our lifestyle, things could get very ugly indeed.

Excellent, thought provoking article BG.

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Jet Gorgon

I just wish they find an alternative to corn for a fuel source. What's wrong with turnips? Can't afford to buy a cob anymore, and Washington State sweet corn is the best in the summer.
The local rant here is to buy from the "100-mile" zone. That is, only buy locally produced products. Sure, but most of these farmers want even more $ for their produce, especially the organic wanklettes, who sell shrivelled up produce. Ha! Mind you, the local blueberries are really yummy.

MeMock

bio fuel from corn is starting to have huge repercussions with world fuel prices and it is only going to get worse.

Spin

BG, your Missus foreskinner will be the first thing to go tits up. Oh the shame of it

Jet Gorgon

^^ True, and also with food prices.

MeMock

woops, thats what I meant to say.