Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Who benefits by creating a crash in rubber prices?

DUNLOP and MICHELIN?

^ And 'Durex'.

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

^ And 'Durex'.

Is of no consequence to me Pragmatic cos been fireing blanks for the last 4 decades or so

Market manipulation is part of money making, China and others had large reserves of rubber, they cutback on buying.
Reserves shrank and price falls, it's a buyers market, drop the price and then buy cheap.
Good business sense, but un vulcanized rubber has a 2 year shelf life, so you can only play the game short term.
No business or country wants a shortage of reserve commodities, be it oil, steel or rubber, big player stuff.
We just have to live in a world that small people have little say, tomorrow things change. China goes cold war they stockpile, NATO and Russia same, world economy booms, same again.
Life, Jim

Sold cup rubber at auction yesterday, Udon province, 24.45 baht per kg.

yesterday in udon i saw a truck and trailer unit full of cut up rubber trees. those trees were not old, i think between 4 and 6 years old [not even big enough to tap yet]. i wonder how much more will be cut down before they even start to produce ?

Reading this Bangkok post article it would appear that This administration is hardly sympathetic towards Thailands rubber farmersRubber farmers demand sale inquiry | Bangkok Post: news

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Reading this Bangkok post article it would appear that This administration is hardly sympathetic towards Thailands rubber farmersRubber farmers demand sale inquiry | Bangkok Post: news

Thai's blame the government for everything, even too much or too little rain.
Hard world, can't make a living from rubber get a job, change crops, send our daughter to Pattaya, what ever.

World commodity, world market dictates, Thai's don't understand this and always have to blame someone else. Jim

Yeah Jim quite correct ,it begs the question though as to just how much the Rice farmers will receive per tonne in a couple of Months up here in the North East .

Originally Posted by piwanoi

Yeah Jim quite correct ,it begs the question though as to just how much the Rice farmers will receive per tonne in a couple of Months up here in the North East .

Market price is my bet and they'll be crying, governments fault.
It's a stark choice for rice and other farmers, you want a better life style you can't do things in the old ways. Stay in the passed and live the old way or adapt to new things, don't but a new pickup, buy a tractor, rice harvester, pumps etc.


On another rubber note, India recorded a 26% drop in production for August compared to August 2013, wages for tappers are similar to Thailand and mostly small family run plantation.
Would think output numbers here will be on par, think any surplus has or will be gone. Jim

^Wouldn't want to hazard a guess as to whom is the single biggest rice grower is in Thailand would you?

The production figure of natural rubber (NR) produced by nine producing countries under the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries which constitutes approximately 92% of global NR production has indicated a drop in supply. For the first half of 2014, the production of ANRPC member countries decreased 1.6% from 4.917 million tonnes in 2013 to 4.837 million tonnes in 2014.
In line with the actual production data for the first half of the year, IRCo estimates that the global NR production for 2014 would be 11.843 million tonnes which is 2.3% lower than the total global production for 2013.
On the other hand, the global NR consumption for 2014 is projected to grow at a higher rate than NR production, supported by the following factors :-
The 4.1% upward revision of China’s provisional annual NR consumption in 2014 from 4.21 million tonnes in 2013 to 4.54 million tonnes (Source: ANRPC Natural Trend & Statistics in August 2014)
China’s import of NR is expected to increase in 2014. As at August 2014, the China’s actual NR import has reached 1,739,378 tonnes which is 16.95% higher than the actual NR import in 2013 (Year to Date)
Steady increase in automobile sales in major markets i.e. China, USA, Eurozone and Japan. Automobile sales for the eight months of 2014 (January – August) in those markets have increased within the range of 4.0 – 7.7% as follows :-
i. China : 7.67%
ii. USA : 5.08%
iii. Eurozone : 4.01%
iv. Japan : 7.01%
Judging from the current global NR supply and demand situations, IRCo estimates that the global NR stocks for 2014 would be within the range of 2.3 – 2.5 million tonnes, way lower than the estimates forecast by IRSG at 3.208 million tonnes (Global Forecasting Service Report: May 2014) and The Rubber Economist at 3.79 million tonnes (as reported by Bloomberg on 18 August 2014).
- IRCo

Originally Posted by ltnt

^Wouldn't want to hazard a guess as to whom is the single biggest rice grower is in Thailand would you?

....and certainly shouldn't surprise anyone.

Originally Posted by thaimeme

Originally Posted by ltnt

^Wouldn't want to hazard a guess as to whom is the single biggest rice grower is in Thailand would you?

....and certainly shouldn't surprise anyone.

Ahh yes TD's uncrowned king of the one liners speaks out ,I see on another thread that A tiny 0.1 of the population own half the Nations wealth and over 15 million are considered living in poverty ,BTW is your dream of a peasants revolution still in the planning stage?,nearly all the mega rich people here in Thailand are Chinese Thai's, I wonder Why? ,in closing have you signed any one up yet to "man the ramparts"https://teakdoor.com/living-in-thaila...evolution.html

24.07 baht per kg yesterday @ auction, cup rubber, Udon province.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

24.07 baht per kg yesterday @ auction, cup rubber, Udon province.

Interesting mate you seem to have got it sussed..always getting a few baht above the norm for the rest of us poor buggers.?

How or do they discount for water or "other" content?

Government auction? News is that government is getting out of buying farm produce..?

Originally Posted by crepitas

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

24.07 baht per kg yesterday @ auction, cup rubber, Udon province.

Interesting mate you seem to have got it sussed..always getting a few baht above the norm for the rest of us poor buggers.?

How or do they discount for water or "other" content?

Government auction? News is that government is getting out of buying farm produce..?

Think Mike sells at some sort of co operative auction, cutting out one or 2 levels of middle men.

Government buyers are profit making, you don't sell to them at a fixed price, they collect the rubber, give a receipt. End of the day, they get the official auction price, deduct costs etc, then you get paid.
Here they only take sheet and totally dry cup, they may go out of business, no ones making sheet and everyone's selling wet cup.

If I had the cash, I'd be buying and making sheet, stock piling, price will go up, because no ones making it, there will be a shortage of high grade rubber next year.

Money makes money, I have none, so will remain poor, but have seriously been thinking about these soft loans they are giving, crepe rubber.
Jim

Jim's pretty much correct. Our auctions all over northern Isaan, several in each province, all run the same way. You deliver the day before you get weighed and paid. As soon as the bags are open and weighed, straight into a 10 wheel 20 ton truck and off to the nearest factory that the winning bidder has good contacts with. I doubt they are making more than .50 - 1.00 baht profit per kg, but that is still serious money on 100/200 plus tons per auction.
Jim is also correct in that NO ONE is making sheet. Absolutely no point in it, and again, unless you've got millions in the bank and can store for 6 months or so, you WILL lose money on it selling it weekly/monthly.

So do they discount for water content?

Pity the factories don't have a setup to buy direct with say a minimum 250 kilo?
Our farm gate buyer gave us 19bt/kilo yesterday minus discount 8% water content guesstimate..think he sells to another middle man as he is small time....real convenient that he picks up from our farm though.
Hear that some middleman buyers are paying 17-18bt and discounting as much as 15%.

No. The price is for wet cup. The factories buy it wet, then turn it into dry cup, then process it. Factories here will buy direct from you, but;
# they WILL factor in water content and you WILL be ripped off.
# minimum amount 1000 kgs.
# you must be registered, payment is not in cash, but bank to bank or cheque.
# you are taxed on the sale, and must register as a tax payer.
Hence nobody bothers.
Nobody does DRC checks on the gate around here, they weigh, they pay, and it is always 3-5 baht less than the fortnightly auctions.
17-18 baht is ridiculous.

SO the question remains..what do the auction buyers discount for water content??

Originally Posted by crepitas

SO the question remains..what do the auction buyers discount for water content??

The price for wet cup is the wet price, no more deducted, yesterday sold 19 Bt a kilo. Say the dry price is 26 Bt, wet price 20 Bt, that means the have deducted 30% for water.
Better to sell dry cup to the Gov. but people, me included are living week to week, bills come in, sell rubber, can't afford to have a few 1,000 kilos laying round drying just to make a few Baht more.

You want to get a few rubber buyers numbers, get a price on the day, or dry it and sell to the Gov. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by crepitas

SO the question remains..what do the auction buyers discount for water content??

The price for wet cup is the wet price, no more deducted, yesterday sold 19 Bt a kilo. Say the dry price is 26 Bt, wet price 20 Bt, that means the have deducted 30% for water.
Better to sell dry cup to the Gov. but people, me included are living week to week, bills come in, sell rubber, can't afford to have a few 1,000 kilos laying round drying just to make a few Baht more.

You want to get a few rubber buyers numbers, get a price on the day, or dry it and sell to the Gov. Jim

thx Jim ..yes we do phone buyers but they do discount quoted price ...must be something different down South...oh well soldier on.

I guess if I was not such a retired, unenterprising, lazy old fart passive farmer; I would certainly seek finance to set up a buying station on a rai or so of our farmland and all that entails...logically margins are unaffected by rubber price ie will always make money in the longer run..same same all brokers etc ?