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Spin

For those of us paid in Dollars, the exchange rate against the baht does tend to cause some anxiety. The Dollar has lost about 25% of its strengh against the baht in the last couple of years.
Most of us look towards Thailand and what the goverment is doing to keep things at acceptable levels for its export based economy. Theres more to it than that though.

The link shows the Nybot USD index, this provides a general indication of the international value of the US Dollar by averaging the exchange rates between the US Dollar and six major world currencies.

Those curriencies are:

EUR: Euro
JPY: Japanese yen
GBP: Bristish pound
CAD: Canadian Dollar
SEK: Swedish Krona
CHF: Swiss Franc

Spin

Lets have a look at the chart for the last month.
The key thing to notice is that the value never dips lower than the 80 level.


The upward blip in the bottom right hand corner has made the telegraphic- transfer rate change ove the last few days from 33.3 to todays 34.01

Lets hope the rally continues

Spin

Here's the one year chart and you can clearly see the downward trend that is causing you to perhaps think about how many beers you can drink each month

peterpan

I would guess if you have one that tracked US debt it would follow the inverse of the 50 day moving average. If it was a stock you wouldn't want to put too much money into it until the support level at 80 was tested a couple more times.

blackgang

When it got over 34 today I went to the bank and got my "go to CM money" for next week, that should make it continue to climb to 35 anyway.

playon

I wouldn't do any long term betting on the dollar. I'd be buying Chinese RMB as it will probably get to 5 or 6 to he dollar in the next couple of years...

peterpan

Yea, the graph looks like a "dead cat bounce to me"

Sir Burr

Looks like a double bottom which is supposed to be a bullish signal.

britmaveric

$ is alright, gonna be back for a killing before long.

Marmite the Dog

So, how can the Thai government make the Dollar stronger?

ray23

Boy this is a complicated one, what has it done to me reduced my savings account money by 27% .

What's happening yes the US Dollar is down, and there doesn't seem to be any will to do a thing about it. Might be because it makes US products less expensive for export. I have talked to friends in the states and they haven't noticed anything about the dollars strength basically a non issue to them.

Here In Thailand with all that is going on hard to understand the Baht appreciating beyond the other currencies in the region. Especially when take into considreation the unstable climate at the moment.

On the positive side they have a huge amount of funds on hand, simply because they stopped spending money Hedge fund flowed into the area as the currency wa easy to manipulate for profits. Steps were and have been taken to get the baht at a more accurate figure to the other countries in the region. So far at most they seem to be able to stabilize it.

There is nothing Thailand can do about the dollars value. Howeve the baht appreciated to a level where many industries can not compete as thier products have become to expensive. Why buy a gidget here if you can get the same gidget in Vietnam for less. Thai companies are relocating to Vietnam, to compete. As a matter of fact the Thai government sponsored seminar on relocating a business to Vietnam.

Some people have made huge sums of money on this. But the majority of Thai's as usual will pay for it. Large factories have been closing, the housing market as of today is down drastically, How many jobs in construction are going to be lost along with the factory jobs.

The NPL rates are going up in Thai banks and we are at the tip of the ice berg.

Thi is odd as this strated much differently then 97, in that there are huge cash reserves and the economy for all intent and purpose was performing much better then could have been expected. Actually at a level that seemed to good to be true.

I have followed this on a daily basis for about eight months now, simply because I didn't understand any of it. Can't say that I understand it now. I do know I'm not alone. None of the experts seem to know how to approach it.

It was odd to watch on many days you would doom and gloom in the Bangkok Post on the same day another article where eveything was roses, in the Nation and vice versa. Some days opposing articles would actually appear in the same paper. So it became evident early on that most of what was printed was smoke and mirrors. Therfore it was impossible to get the real picture.

It trully is very complicated and I know I haven't given it justice, but in short form I think that would be impossible.

What does all this lead me to believe, the baht will depreciate to the dollar in the long run. Not because of the states but because of Thailand. The only thing that I see saving the dollar at the moment is the world stepping in, it may or may not. But the consequnces of not doing that is going to be devistating on the world economy.

We have seen in the last week what the U.S. economy really means to the world, through the sub prime mess. Right wrong or indifferent What hurts it will be shared by the world.

Does any of this really mean anything heck no just my humble oppinnion.

sabang

What pisses me off is that I'm sitting in mostly Aussie dollars, which have done fine for me.
But the sub prime bollox in the US has caused the AUD to go sharply down against the USD, a so called 'flight to quality'.
Riddle me that.

Gerbil

I keep all mine under the mattress.

forreachingme

there is may be a little crisis spirit around, not bad as in that case more people drop big bucks bags in Switzerland;

and the CHF takes value, what is actually the case;

not sure if i'm rigth but most prolly...

few days ago 26 to the baht and now 28.3, goody...

Butterfly

The sub-prime mess was a disaster waiting to happen, anyone could see it, and yet nothing was done. See the thread in Issues about it.

Spin

Its another day of slow motion carnage on the Dow Jones today, sub prime worries continue to cause problems. Stocks are back to May prices right now with the Index set to touch 13,000

The Dollar on the other hand continues its rally, heres the monthly chart...



Just checking the values against the GBP, that is now 1.99 it was 2.06 about 10 days ago.

Lets hope tomorrow brings a bit of movement in the Dollar to Baht.

My prediction: 34.2

Spin

Well today it lifted a little, i see 34.08 as an average figure quoted today.

Spin

Heres the monthly chart to date...



Now things are hotting up, the Dollar continues north and I can see on shore TT rates of 34.55.
The pound has also been pushed back to 1.96

So it seems clear that this Dollar index has a major effect on the rate with baht, which makes it a good reference to where things are heading and where they came from.

mrsquirrel

I want to see what happened to the baht and the won in 1997

Where can I find it?:

Butterfly

all the markets are in kernel panic mode

not a good sign