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  1. #26
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    Well its having a welcome effect on the US markets that open shortly
    Dow up 1.7% Nasdaq up 3%

    The stocks i bought yesterday during the 20$ gold sell off are showing 2000USD profit in under 24hrs

  2. #27
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    Interesting.

    It's just a steady up and down all the way from 96 to 07

    troughs in 97 '00 '04

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin
    The stocks i bought yesterday during the 20$ gold sell off are showing 2000USD profit in under 24hrs
    Those high variations is how you make money, having the guts to buy when it's falling and sell when it's getting high

    Most people will buy when it's getting too high, and sell when everybody is selling, a recipe for disaster

  4. #29
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    For those trading NZD and other "exotic" currencies, here is an interesting story explaining the recent surge against the USD

    Quote Originally Posted by WSJ
    Currency 'Carry Trade'
    Becomes Harder Play
    Amid Aversion to Risk
    By CRAIG KARMIN and YUKARI IWATANI KANE
    August 18, 2007; Page B1

    As if many hedge funds and other global investors weren't having a tough enough time during the market selloff, now one of their favorite bets looks to be in jeopardy: the "carry trade."

    This popular strategy -- where investors borrow money in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, to invest in assets in countries with higher rates -- has been a source of tremendous profits for currency speculators, companies and even Japanese small investors for years.


    But the onset of a U.S. credit crisis has generated an aversion to riskier, higher-yielding assets. That has caused speculators to reverse course, buying back currencies they borrowed in before they get even more expensive. The quandary now is that after many lucrative years with the carry trade, there is no obvious strategy to take its place under the current market conditions.

    "That's the problem," says John Taylor, chief investment officer at FX Concepts, a New York hedge fund that specializes in currencies and manages $13 billion. "We're basically out of [the carry trade] now and it gets more complex and harder to make money."

    The biggest winner during the unwinding of the carry trade is likely to be the yen, which at one point on Thursday strengthened more than 4% against the dollar -- which would have been its biggest one-day gain since 1998, had it held all those gains.

    Though the yen declined on Friday, the Japanese currency surged 3.8% against the dollar for the week, and more than 9% versus the Australian dollar and 11% versus the New Zealand dollar. But these moves are generally not welcome in Japan, where a stronger currency hurts exporters and could weigh on stocks.

    The rapid unwinding of the carry trade in recent days strained the $2 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market, usually among the most liquid of any market, even during crisis periods. But on Thursday and Friday, traders complained that at certain times, trading even small yen orders became a challenge because buyers were overwhelming sellers. Some traders said the prices offered them looked so odd they suspected that some banks weren't really prepared to trade the currency at all. "They just don't want to make prices," one trader said. "They don't know where prices are."

    Earlier this year, Mr. Taylor said, his firm borrowed money in yen at near-zero rates and invested that money in New Zealand dollars and Australian dollars, where those rates recently have been 6% to 8%.

    Since then, the firm has been looking for another strategy as reliable. It won't be easy. Goldman Sachs said earlier this year that one basic version of the carry trade -- selling the six currencies with the lowest interest rates, buying the six with the highest, and resetting the mix once a month -- has returned 19% annually since 1998. That made it both one of the most straightforward and profitable strategies over that period.

    Yet when interest rates move and market volatility accelerates, traders can get crushed as they all head to the exits trying to reverse their bets at the same time. Once the yen begins to rally, traders want to buy it back so they can close out their open loan positions before the yen gets even more expensive.

    Even so, some investors are hoping that the unwinding of the carry trade is merely a short-term reaction to the credit crunch, and that it will return to fashion as it did after a violent unwinding in February and March and the spring of last year.

    "I don't think that will happen now," says Rodrigo Guimaraes, a Barclays currency analyst in London. He says that three conditions are usually necessary for the carry trade to thrive: a funding currency with low interest rates, low market volatility and plenty of trading liquidity.

    Mr. Guimaraes figures Japanese rates will remain low for some time. But he thinks it may be a while before volatility eases and liquidity may not return to the abundant levels seen in recent years. Meanwhile, he sees further unwinding of the trade in the days ahead. "We think that long-term investors, such as corporates and Japanese individuals, are only just beginning to unwind their long carry positions," he said in a recent report.

    While the dollar strengthened a bit on Friday to 114.21 from 113.88 yen, Mr. Guimaraes sees it going to at least 110 yen.

    For now, Japanese currency authorities seem unperturbed by the yen's surge, encouraging traders to maintain their bullish outlook. Japan's currency-policy point man, Naoyuki Shinohara, said he was watching the market carefully, but declined to comment on specific currency moves. Many traders took this as a sign that the ministry will not intervene to stop the yen's rise soon.

  5. #30
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    It is damn near 35 now and will settle down at 35.50, so we be doing a tad better from here on.

  6. #31
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    Ok, time to takje another look at this index as things go considerably worse over the months since last August. You can see from the chart below that we came a long way below support at the 80 point but now its showing signs of life around the 72 mark:

    It certainly looks like the dollar may have had a floor put under it now that the FED has probably finished with easing interest rates.
    The Dollar has been rising, lets take a closer look at that chart showing recent activity for the last calendar month, the index started to rise about the time the fed did the last cut and hinted that it was done cutting, that was around the 20th April

    In the time since the 20th the exchange rate to the baht has moved from approx 31.3 to todays T/T rate which is just about 32.10, its not a big change but it reverses the trend and I certainly hope it continues.

  7. #32
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    Bloomberg has more on this, here

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin
    Bloomberg has more on this, here
    May 12 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since December 2005, futures traders are turning bullish on the dollar.
    Great news; just after I've spent nearly three million baht's worth of cheap dollars. Where's the noose?

  9. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrsquirrel
    I want to see what happened to the baht and the won in 1997
    Good luck finding it but my poor memory tells me the won, Taiwan Dollar, Ringgat, peso and most other Asian currencies, took a dump along with the baht but not sure to the same degree.

    Oops. Missed BH post.
    Last edited by Norton; 12-05-2008 at 06:34 PM.

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by buad hai
    Great news; just after I've spent nearly three million baht's worth of cheap dollars. Where's the noose?
    Just finished my house also. I see your in line with my record in most things. But high sell low.

  11. #36
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    BH, you did say that you are fixed income dollar demoninated, this is good news for you long term if it holds up!

  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spin
    BH, you did say that you are fixed income dollar demoninated, this is good news for you long term if it holds up!
    Indeed I am. I suppose that just when the dollar reaches new highs I'll have completed my "penury living" training!

  13. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by buad hai
    Indeed I am. I suppose that just when the dollar reaches new highs I'll have completed my "penury living" training!
    Buad Hai - you do make me laugh. You remind me a lot of a character I met in Thailand years ago.

    His name was Dennis - In his late 40's and ex-hash dealer from Bognoregious in the UK.
    Dennis was unlucky, really unlucky.

    He did a spell in prison because a police man who was visiting his house about a disturbance lent on his mantelpiece where the dope was hidden and pulled it off the wall revealing the stash.
    He felt something was wrong with his body, went to the doctor and found out he had stomach cancer. Had to have his stomach cut out. He travelled with a suitcase full of tincture of morphine, a carry bag of anti-biotics since he lost his pancreas - and a small shoulder bag that had two pairs of shorts and a t-shirt.
    He stayed at a friends guest house where he got mauled by a dog down on the beach on the sole of his foot, bitten by my monkey, fell off the porch of his bingalow and messed up his shoulder.
    He crashed his motorbike the final day of rental whilst taking it back.
    His previous trip to Thailand he had been knocked out riding a banana boat. Had his motorbike stolen that he rented.

    He complained about all these things, it never rained it came down in bathtub fulls. Yet he was quite happy when he was complaining.
    He was a really nice guy with terrible luck.

  14. #39
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    Well, I'm not quite that unlucky, nor am I quite as poor, or shy as I let on here.

    I've had a good life, seen a lot of the world, had some wonderful friends, a career that many would envy, accomplished most of my childhood goals and am now retired living what I think is a pretty nice life.

    That said, it's rather amusing to complain about things now and then.

  15. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by buad hai
    nor am I quite as poor, or shy as I let on here.
    I think most figured that out quite a while ago

    Anyways, looking at the numbers if we take March 18th T/T rate of 31.12 and compare it to todays rate of 32.38 its an increase of 4.05%

  16. #41
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    Yep, got just over 32 baht on an ATM withdrawal Tuesday. Maybe I'll be able to bump up my beer quality (quantity?) "real soon now"!

  17. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by buad hai
    Maybe I'll be able to bump up my beer quality (quantity?) "real soon now"!
    First two for quality, the next ten for quantity.

  18. #43
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    32.5 minutes ago!
    The way to go is up!

  19. #44
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    I am being paid in US$ for the work I am doing at present

    So I will have to wait until after the elections and the $ gets stronger again before I use any of it

    and the Baht will get weaker too, I hope

  20. #45
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    DrAndy -- On another posting rampage....

  21. #46
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    ^Don't worry, he'll be gone tomorrow.

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    ^Don't worry, he'll be gone tomorrow.
    Is it tomorrow yet?

    See here Buadhai, I am in a small town internet cafe and it is raining, so I cannot do very much except sit in here and send you little messages to make you happy

    when the sun comes out, I will not be posting much, promise

    meanwhile, the Euro is quite strong, innit?
    I have reported your post

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrAndy
    the Euro is quite strong, innit?
    Soon on par with the sterling DrAndy.
    Time for a merger methinks..

  24. #49
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    Well that didnt last long, Dollar fell back to where it came from and baht exchange rate today is 31.86


  25. #50
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    Back to drinking at home....

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